Bostonseminole Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What are SREFs saying? snow, 1"+ QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Why's everyone looking at the H85 line? Isn't the warm air push with these things almost always closer to H7 or H75? Folks could be sleeting with H85 temps of 0C to -3C. Not claiming that it's 100% snow here. But I think it's relativity indicative that it's colder than 3z. It also reduces the probability of major zr issues (as opposed to ip), which was my main concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 A lot of Litchfield County and a sliver of far western Hartford Co. aren't having the winter of their lives. its january 31st and we already have well over our average yearly snow, I'd say it's a pretty damn good winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Always liked the good ol' ETA... That's the 03z run, correct? The 09z run is not out yet on E-Wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Have to say comments like bringing winter "back to where it belongs" are beyond silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SREFs are outstanding. Early call for the Quincy/Milton/Dorchester vortex? Any ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not claiming that it's 100% snow here. But I think it's relativity indicative that it's colder than 3z. It also reduces the probability of major zr issues (as opposed to ip), which was my main concern. Yeah, certainly. I think its showing the model is deepening the cold air in the lower levels, but just saying that on all the soundings it looks like the warm air push is above that level. If you're near 0C at H85 you are definitely getting no where near freezing rain as that cold layer is likely pretty thick below the warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That's the 03z run, correct? The 09z run is not out yet on E-Wall. Yeah... i didn't even know they ran a 9z run of the ETA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Referring to the pending storm, the CNN anchor just said that the east coast could start to see this monster by Thursday. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Why's everyone looking at the H85 line? Isn't the warm air push with these things almost always closer to H7 or H75? Folks could be sleeting with H85 temps of 0C to -3C. Right, yeah, even with an 850 skirting HFD-PVD-TAN or something of the sort on the SREFs, that would probably (in this setup) be about 29-31F at the surface but probably with zr or perhaps sleet (assuming it's warmer at say 750-800mb). But still, much colder than 03z run which had 850 up to around ORH. Btw, still a potent thing for tomorrow, swath of .5"+ south of Mass pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like maybe pinging to near PYM and PVD to HFD or so. Can't be sure from these primitive NCEP graphics. I may be able to go 12-24 lolli's to 30 for much of SNE later on today pending the rest of the 12z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Have to say comments like bringing winter "back to where it belongs" are beyond silly. Im starting to have a portion of my heart devoted to nne so i cant let this one go... We both know about 90% of sne was thinking of bringing winter back where it belongs last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I may be able to go 12-24 lolli's to 30 later on today pending the rest of the 12z suite Where? S vt/nh? N ma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SREFs are outstanding. Yes, def just about all snow for MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Right, yeah, even with an 850 skirting HFD-PVD-TAN or something of the sort on the SREFs, that would probably (in this setup) be about 29-31F at the surface but probably with zr or perhaps sleet (assuming it's warmer at say 750-800mb). But still, much colder than 03z run which had 850 up to around ORH. Btw, still a potent thing for tomorrow, swath of .5"+ south of Mass pike. 1000-700mb critical thicknesses have been an excellent indicator most of the winter. Not the 1000-850s. Most of the time the warm air seems to be sneaking in around 750-800mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Have to say comments like bringing winter "back to where it belongs" are beyond silly. Very much so... however, with all the folks rooting for this to move south, someone's gotta root for it to at least stay where it is or a tick north for us NNE'ers. With the deep, deep snowpack down in SNE, you guys can spare some snow for us northerners in exchange for a little mixed precip, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow SREFs cooled way down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM looks colder than 6Z at 24hrs so far.. edit: looks similar at 27hrs vs. 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Right, yeah, even with an 850 skirting HFD-PVD-TAN or something of the sort on the SREFs, that would probably (in this setup) be about 29-31F at the surface but probably with zr or perhaps sleet (assuming it's warmer at say 750-800mb). But still, much colder than 03z run which had 850 up to around ORH. Btw, still a potent thing for tomorrow, swath of .5"+ south of Mass pike. I think a lot of people are overlooking this. By itself, we'd probably have a 30 page thread just on this threat. The ingredients are there for a 3-7" snowfall JUST tomorrow before the main stuff even starts. yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I honestly believe now sleet gets no farther north than just south of HFD or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yes, def just about all snow for MA Even HFD probably flirts with all snow. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 its january 31st and we already have well over our average yearly snow, I'd say it's a pretty damn good winter I haven't hit average snow yet! By Wednesday maybe. Yes, it has been a great winter so far, but I chuckle when I see the talk about all of CT having the epic winter of all time. It just isn't so for some. This year can still do it but its got a lot of work to do for my area to be in the ranks of 1886-87, 1915-16, 1960-61, 1966-67, 1977-78, 1995-96 and 2002-03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM looks colder than 6Z at 24hrs so far.. It's def a little colder out in Illinois etc. That's been a continuing trend for the most part over many runs. A few have bumped warmer, but overal a general downward slide. BTW what did the Euro show not that I care much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Even HFD probably flirts with all snow. Wow. Chuck em high and chuck em deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I haven't hit average snow yet! By Wednesday maybe. Yes, it has been a great winter so far, but I chuckle when I see the talk about all of CT having the epic winter of all time. It just isn't so for some. This year can still do it but its got a lot of work to do for my area to be in the ranks of 1886-87, 1915-16, 1960-61, 1966-67, 1977-78, 1995-96 and 2002-03 you're right near me...what the f is "average" for collinsville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Chuck em high and chuck em deep And now part 1 seems a bit amped up too. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Even HFD probably flirts with all snow. Wow. Plenty of time to get that line to the merritt or i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 And now part 1 seems a bit amped up too. Wow. I think we get 4-8 tomorrow and 14-20 Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 And now part 1 seems a bit amped up too. Wow. Hopefully the stronger part one, the more confluence left in its wake for part two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 And now part 1 seems a bit amped up too. Wow. Wouldn't be surprised for a I-90 south 4-7" tomorrow. That alone is borderline warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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