NO excuses - NWS needs to held accountable

[MN Transplant]

I did the same at my office, some folks heeded the warning, and some scoffed at it. Those that stayed until 6 did pay dearly.

Some folks just don't 'get it', it's the stupidity of the public. They went out at 4pm and saw rain, and said, this thing is a rain event. Paid no attention to what the experts were saying here. What can you do?

I work with a bunch of non-mets. They know my background and how closely I watch these things. And yet, even after I sent out a strongly worded email in the early morning noting how bad the evening rush would be, at least one of them ended up having a 9 hour commute. Sometimes it just boils down to personal responsibility.

[WxUSAF]

This was a tough forecast up until the day before or night before. Surface temps were marginal and the models didn't lock into the bullseye right away. But WUSA9 did a great job with this storm I think as they usually do.

I watch the Baltimore channels, particularly WBAL. Justin Berk (who posts on here) is also very good and he was honking for a potentially big storm more than the rest. But Tom Tasselmeyer and Tony Pann on WBAL are both degreed mets and very good ones. I was stunned at the way they downplayed this event. I've been watching both of them for almost 20 years and I know how well they've done on the big ones in the past (Jan 96, Feb 10, etc.). That made it just more stunning when Tom T was showing 1-3" for the viewing area less than 24 hours before we had near whiteout conditions.

The models were advertising warning level snow for SOMEONE in the area for at least 48 hours before the snow started. There was obvious potential for some heavy snow totals (>8") by the 00z Tuesday runs. And they were still pushing a mostly rain event way too late. Wednesday morning Tony Pann was talking about 3-6" totals, and it sounded very much like that was STORM TOTAL...when many people had 3-5" already by Wednesday morning.

[gymengineer]

This was a tough forecast up until the day before or night before. Surface temps were marginal and the models didn't lock into the bullseye right away. But WUSA9 did a great job with this storm I think as they usually do.

And for LWX...sure they could have done better, but everyone knew there would be snow during rush hour. It's up to the people.

WJLA did also--- they brought on the Doug Hill/Bob Ryan duo on the 11 pm broadcast Tuesday night, which set the tone for a big one. Their first guess map was 6+" potential for the entire metro area.

NBC4's really missing Bob Ryan.

[Wonderdog]

WJLA did also--- they brought on the Doug Hill/Bob Ryan duo on the 11 pm broadcast Tuesday night, which set the tone for a big one. Their first guess map was 6+" potential for the entire metro area.

NBC4's really missing Bob Ryan.

They are not missing his salary however.

[Ian]

a big problem was people we're like "oh i'll wait till i see it start to snow" thinking that it would be like the typical snow that barely piles up in the beginning etc. it's a communication issue but i dont know how it can be solved. the public just needs to come to terms with the fact that 1-3"+ hr cripples whoever is on the road.

[joc111]

WJLA did also--- they brought on the Doug Hill/Bob Ryan duo on the 11 pm broadcast Tuesday night, which set the tone for a big one. Their first guess map was 6+" potential for the entire metro area.

NBC4's really missing Bob Ryan.

Doug really, really, really downplayed the event on the 5pm radio and TV news broadcasts Tuesday evening. Knowing what I learned from reading this board and tracking the storm, I was utterly shocked and dumbfounded while listening to him brush it off as basically rain with the possibility of quick dusting on the backside.

I don't even recalling him mentioning the Watch that NWS had issued.

[North Balti Zen]

I watch the Baltimore channels, particularly WBAL. Justin Berk (who posts on here) is also very good and he was honking for a potentially big storm more than the rest. But Tom Tasselmeyer and Tony Pann on WBAL are both degreed mets and very good ones. I was stunned at the way they downplayed this event. I've been watching both of them for almost 20 years and I know how well they've done on the big ones in the past (Jan 96, Feb 10, etc.). That made it just more stunning when Tom T was showing 1-3" for the viewing area less than 24 hours before we had near whiteout conditions.

The models were advertising warning level snow for SOMEONE in the area for at least 48 hours before the snow started. There was obvious potential for some heavy snow totals (>8") by the 00z Tuesday runs. And they were still pushing a mostly rain event way too late. Wednesday morning Tony Pann was talking about 3-6" totals, and it sounded very much like that was STORM TOTAL...when many people had 3-5" already by Wednesday morning.

Spot. on.

[gil888]

Agree that the warning for DC (and NYC) seemed rather slow in coming (especially with NYC-- the winter storm watch timing was horrible). Easy to armchair QB though. DC airport only had 5 inches though..

[Ian]

Agree that the warning for DC (and NYC) seemed rather slow in coming (especially with NYC-- the winter storm watch timing was horrible). Easy to armchair QB though. DC airport only had 5 inches though..

d.c. airport is no place to judge a warning off of.. the fact that they even verified is a plus

[Ji]

okay..you got your wish. The NWS has just been fired and replaced by the Mid Atlantic posters on this board

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Perhaps true enough that some did not handle this particular storm well at all, even as evidence mounted by later Tuesday that we'd be under the gun. From what I've read just in here, seems to have been a big problem mostly with the TV mets...but to be honest I never watched them for this storm. NWS/Sterling was kind of a mixed bag, but I'd hesitate to start calling for investigations and heads on platters, even if they were slow to put out warnings for the District and south/east of there, or otherwise seemingly downplayed amounts for awhile.

Actually, I'd like to see some people at PEPCO with heads on a platter! This is ridiculous with any storm, especially in Montgomery county. My power went out at 7PM last night and as far as I know still not up yet (been at work all day). It was 55 degrees in my place when I woke up this morning. This is the 3rd time they've had a major (prolonged) outage in less than a year around here (twice this past summer with the thunderstorms, now this snowstorm). And word has it from what I saw that some areas might not have power until tomorrow, or even as late as Sunday! Perhaps I should deduct my grocery bill (and bill from probably having to eat out a few times) from the next electric bill, as I'll probably once again have to replace a lot even though it's relatively cold now compared to this past summer. Having a fridge off for over 12 hours or more, it gets really dicey as to what's still good or not. Sorry about the rant, but thought I'd toss that into the mix! I'm sure others are in the same boat here.

[mdjnr]

Doug really, really, really downplayed the event on the 5pm radio and TV news broadcasts Tuesday evening. Knowing what I learned from reading this board and tracking the storm, I was utterly shocked and dumbfounded while listening to him brush it off as basically rain with the possibility of quick dusting on the backside.

I don't even recalling him mentioning the Watch that NWS had issued.

I agree with you 100% on this one. Doug is usually pretty good, but he was consistently downplaying this event. It wasn't just on Tuesday evening, but all along he kept saying rain. Granted, that's what the models were showing, but once they shifted, I think he should have at least made people aware of the potential for this one. My personal feeling -- in general, the tv stations were too late on this one, as was the NWS. Truth is, it seems the tv stations get their information from the NWS in many cases. That is part of what burned them. But not completely.

One other comment -- what does everyone think of the NWS messages associated with the winter storm watches, warnings, advisories? They are designed to be made easy to read with the section on winds, snowfall, etc. However, I'm finding them missing the point in many cases and not adding as much information as they should. What do you all think?

Mdjnr

[mdwx]

What about the cities and road crews? I know the raod crews threw down salt for less accumulations than what was forecast. Why weren't they out there in the morning just in case? It was a slushy wet snow, so at least the salt could've helped.

As for last night you can't blame the road crews , there is just no way to keep up with snowfall rates that insane. As for the morning, thats a different story. My neighbor works for Baltimore County and he wasn't even called in until there was already an inch on the ground and snowing like crazy. This is where Sterling and the TV Mets really screwed the pooch.

[Jebman]

If NOAA has an Inspector General, they need to investigate what happened during the last 24 hours at LWX. Literally millions of people have been severely impacted by their delayed reaction to the potential impact of this snowstorm. We can all hope that no one lost their lives because they were stranded in gridlock across the area.

Somehow the people responsible for issuing warnings to the public dropped the ball big time. They refused to accept the mounting pile of evidence that this storm was going to impact the commute for the entire DC/MD/VA area.

OPM only granted the 2-hr early dismissal of DC area feds after NWS issued the special weather statement which discussed the disaster of 2"/hr snow rates combined with evening rush. It was too little too late.

There needs to be investigations and people need to be held accountable. I am not sure what if any influence we can wield, but I will post any contact info I find.

I know it is a tough job of balancing being a chicken little or not barking loud enough. However even many mets here and elsewhere were wondering what in the world LWX was thinking. I believe if warned in advance, OPM would have used liberal leave + a even earlier closing to try and get as many people off the roads before the worst hit. Many other offices in the area follow the fed's decision.

Some ppl in MD STILL w/o power due to 12 inches PLUS of heavy wet snow.

There were ppl STILL trying to get home on the highways as of 1am this morning.

HEADS NEED TO ROLL - and they need to be utterly STRIPPED of their fookin' pensions. I am sick to death of POLITICS comin' before the safety of the people in this country.

I will NEVER shut my hole about this, not EVER. NWS is a modern travesty and a laughing stock. Where in the hell do those fools get their meteorological degrees anyway?

THERE IS NO GODDAMNED EXCUSE THIS TIME, NONE!!! This is as bad as the British Petroleum disastah last summer!

[Solo2]

Like I said yesterday as the snow began to fall.....the LWX mets and area wide TV "mets" should donate their salaries from the previous 3 days to charity. That money is obviously better spent on such causes because they were asleep at the wheel. It was/is a public safety issue. The alerts came far too late for people to react. The model agreement was staggering for once....only to go on TV continually saying there wasn't...is disgraceful. Warnings should have been out prior to the 11pm news (really could have been out during the evening news) for areas from N/W of 95.

/End Rant.

[Cambridge D]

Local weather and the NWS could have informed everyone and still stuck to their guns if they didn't think the forecast would verify as many here thought it would. They knew there was the potential for what happened last night in plenty of time to warn. At some point you have a responsibility to warn the public if the consequences of a possible weather event are catastrophic. If they don't think it will happen, it's OK to say so, but warn of the possibility and describe the scenario of what things might look like if it does happen. Let the public plan accordingly. It's not a perfect solution, but it beats the hell out of what happened yesterday. There seems to be too much of an emphasis on being right and not enough of an emphasis on informing in a responsible manner.

[Jim_in_CA]

Interesting discussion here. Obviously the Winter Storm Watch was appropriate. The special statement was fine too, though it could have been posted earlier.

Where I really think NWS "screwed the pooch" is when they issued a Winter Weather Advisory Wednesday morning. Right or wrong, WWA in virtually everyone's mind means "nuisance event." So as soon as the Winter Storm Watch became a Winter Weather Advisory, lots of people just checked out.

What is warning criteria in this area? 5 inches? I don't know what guidance NWS was looking at to think a WWA was appropriate. All the counties in the immediate DC area north and west were virtually guaranteed to see 5 inches of snow from this event. Maybe the whole county wasn't guaranteed to see it, but I could have told you Wednesday morning that somewhere in DC, somewhere in Fairfax, etc, would see 5" plus. Accordingly, a Winter Storm Warning was the appropriate product to issue, NOT a WWA.

I can't emphasize enough the difference to most people. We weenies look at detailed forecasts, but for most people, WWA = low impact nuisance, I might need my ice scraper in the morning. Winter Storm Warning means pay attention. Clearly the latter was warranted for this storm, and NWS just dropped the ball big time.

A WSW wouldn't have cured all. There are plenty of people who have BS employers who won't let them leave. There are some who are convinced they are too important to leave work early. Others never believe it will actually snow. But I think a timely escalation from Watch to Warning instead of Watch to Advisory would have made a huge difference overall, especially for federal folks.

And, as an aside.. I think warning criteria here should be 3 or 4 inches, not 5. This area has semi-decent snow clearing capability post storm, but I think DC metro residents by and large HANDLE snow about as well as people in Key West. Let's face it, anything over 4" here is a MAJOR event in most people's minds.

[baroclinic_instability]

Some ppl in MD STILL w/o power due to 12 inches PLUS of heavy wet snow.

There were ppl STILL trying to get home on the highways as of 1am this morning.

HEADS NEED TO ROLL - and they need to be utterly STRIPPED of their fookin' pensions. I am sick to death of POLITICS comin' before the safety of the people in this country.

I will NEVER shut my hole about this, not EVER. NWS is a modern travesty and a laughing stock. Where in the hell do those fools get their meteorological degrees anyway?

THERE IS NO GODDAMNED EXCUSE THIS TIME, NONE!!! This is as bad as the British Petroleum disastah last summer!

This is overboard. Simple fact is politics come into play because of the very thing you mention here--safety. The public, unfortunately, is uninformed, and there has to be a reasonable middle ground between being wrong and being right. Bust too much and nobody listens to any warnings or watches. NWS is in a tricky position when it comes to public confidence--and politics eventually come into play whether we want it to or not.

That said--there is always room for improvement. Trust me--the NWS/NOAA/NCEP won't sit idle and act like it was a perfect forecast. There will likely be both an inter-office case study as well as an overall performance evaluation in some form or another.

[baroclinic_instability]

Interesting discussion here. Obviously the Winter Storm Watch was appropriate. The special statement was fine too, though it could have been posted earlier.

Where I really think NWS "screwed the pooch" is when they issued a Winter Weather Advisory Wednesday morning. Right or wrong, WWA in virtually everyone's mind means "nuisance event." So as soon as the Winter Storm Watch became a Winter Weather Advisory, lots of people just checked out.

What is warning criteria in this area? 5 inches? I don't know what guidance NWS was looking at to think a WWA was appropriate. All the counties in the immediate DC area north and west were virtually guaranteed to see 5 inches of snow from this event. Maybe the whole county wasn't guaranteed to see it, but I could have told you Wednesday morning that somewhere in DC, somewhere in Fairfax, etc, would see 5" plus. Accordingly, a Winter Storm Warning was the appropriate product to issue, NOT a WWA.

I can't emphasize enough the difference to most people. We weenies look at detailed forecasts, but for most people, WWA = low impact nuisance, I might need my ice scraper in the morning. Winter Storm Warning means pay attention. Clearly the latter was warranted for this storm, and NWS just dropped the ball big time.

A WSW wouldn't have cured all. There are plenty of people who have BS employers who won't let them leave. There are some who are convinced they are too important to leave work early. Others never believe it will actually snow. But I think a timely escalation from Watch to Warning instead of Watch to Advisory would have made a huge difference overall, especially for federal folks.

And, as an aside.. I think warning criteria here should be 3 or 4 inches, not 5. This area has semi-decent snow clearing capability post storm, but I think DC metro residents by and large HANDLE snow about as well as people in Key West. Let's face it, anything over 4" here is a MAJOR event in most people's minds.

The NWS is currently testing "impact" based forecasting where there are no longer "concrete" rules. In other words-- 4 inches of heavy snow at rush hour may garner a winter storm warning while 4 inches of light snow overnight may only get a Winter Weather Advisory. They are testing it out at Paducah, KY NWS I believe. I think it is a great move since weather impacts can vary significantly beyond simple "guidelines" for warnings/watches.

[real]

The entire thing was a Cluster of major proportions. Yes, LWX should have hoisted a warning. Also some T.V. mets were caught flat footed. I watched one DC forecaster last night talking about a 3-inch an hour rates on radar about 7 p.m. when 24 hours before that she was only forecasting 1 to 2 for the entire storm.

However, to be fair, I am not so sure things would have been that different had LWX issued a warning yesterday am for 4 to 6.

Lets face it, 4 to 6 can sometimes be a storm easily handled by people and motorists around here. And after last year, and with this being the first major storm, I think plenty of people thought, "six inches, that's nothing."

What made this storm so extreme was the wetness of the snow and some kind of continual melting and refreezing situation on the roads that was unlike anything I have ever seen.

I swear for a while in the city of DC, the temperature could not have been below 33. And plenty of cars were driving over the snow which usually helps warm the surface, yet the slush was freezing instantly on the roads.

How do you know when a wet snow is going to be - just that - a wet snow that melts on most paved surfaces. Or something far worse? But I guess when models showed multiple inches in an hour - more should have been done to get the word out there that you don't fool around with kind of snowfall rates. t

[baroclinic_instability]

The NWS is currently testing "impact" based forecasting where there are no longer "concrete" rules. In other words-- 4 inches of heavy snow at rush hour may garner a winter storm warning while 4 inches of light snow overnight may only get a Winter Weather Advisory. They are testing it out at Paducah, KY NWS I believe. I think it is a great move since weather impacts can vary significantly beyond simple "guidelines" for warnings/watches.

BeauDodson posted this in our region--here is the info from Beau.

"The Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service (unsure about others) are going to change the way they issue winter weather products. Starting this season it will be impact based. Thus - a situation that may not normally receive a winter weather advisory may receive one if the impact is forecasted to be higher than normal. For example - a morning rush hour event will be graded as higher impact.

Paducah announced these changes at their winter weather conference last month.

Should be interesting to see if there are any visible differences.

I believe winter storm warnings could be issued for events less than the normal snowfall accumulation that used to be required. This would happen if an event has high winds or could cause a bigger impact (again such as morning or evening rush hour).

I also noticed Louisville (this evening) put out this statement in their updated AFD

THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...AND WIND

CHILLS AT AND BELOW ZERO. BUT NOT JUST IN THE MORNING...FOR MOST OF

THE DAY. DO NOT LET CHILDREN STAND OUTSIDE FOR SCHOOL MONDAY

MORNING...AND DO NOT LET THEM WALK HOME. DO NOT LEAVE PETS OUTSIDE.

IT WILL BE A BITTERLY COLD DAY WITH ACTUAL TEMPS BARELY REACHING THE

UPPER TEENS. BECAUSE OF THESE CONDITIONS...THE WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE LITTLE

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY (ABOUT AN INCH OVER THE NRN

BLUEGRASS--LESS ELSEWHERE)."

[ge0]

THERE IS NO GODDAMNED EXCUSE THIS TIME, NONE!!! This is as bad as the British Petroleum disastah last summer!

are you serious?

what are we going to compare it to next, the holocaust?

[weatherwonder]

I would like to know who called in to the C4 show on WBAL today about this and mentioned a "weather forum" nailed this storm six days ago. LOL

[Ian]

BeauDodson posted this in our region--here is the info from Beau.

they started doing that here recently -- i think last yr? -- for WWAs and rush hour. so snow near rush hour can be less than a typical wwa and get a wwa.

[baroclinic_instability]

they started doing that here recently -- i think last yr? -- for WWAs and rush hour. so snow near rush hour can be less than a typical wwa and get a wwa.

Interesting--thanks. It seems to be rolling out across a number of offices then since the NWS here at MPX is about to do the same thing. Either way--I like the changes since "impact" based forecasting is something private weather companies have been doing for a long time.

[WxLover]

On Tues.eve. most of the people on this board knew what was going to evolve. And the NWS didn't.?

[winterymix]

I'd like to see the NWS try issuing a highway traction forecast with

four mini-categories;

1. limited access roads

a. sedans, small SUVs

b four wheel drive vehicles with high road clearance

2. side streets

a. sedans, small SUVs

b. four wheel drive vehicles with high road clearance

For each category, the time interval of concern could be predicted as well

as a grade of A, B, or C for traction

A = traction OK with good tire tread and cautious speed

B = increasingly challenging conditions

C = travel not recommended

[real]

I have a feeling the next storm (maybe as early as next week) is going to be a case where EVERYONE knows it coming and the media and LWX will be going out of their way to make sure of it, probably to the point of overreacting. Winter Storm Watches will be issued days in advance, Schools and businesses will close premature, snow plows will be lined up for miles on major roads hours before the first flakes, the pre-treating of highways will start days ahead of time and the grocery stores will be mobbed -- even if the forecast is only for 4 inches.

[Symblized]

I have a feeling the next storm (maybe as early as next week) is going to be a case where EVERYONE knows it coming and the media and LWX will be going out of their way to make sure of it, probably to the point of overreacting. Winter Storm Watches will be issued days in advance, Schools and businesses will close premature, snow plows will be lined up for miles on major roads hours before the first flakes, the pre-treating of highways will start days ahead of time and the grocery stores will be mobbed -- even if the forecast is only for 4 inches.

Katie Couric mentioned it tonight on the CBS Evening News.

[JeanineJ]

ha ha ha....

I saw the rain and wanted snow when that band was initially coming through. I was just complaining really. .... but that doesn't mean I thought it was not going to snow at all. A few in my office thought it was going to rain all night and when they left got in some really bad traffic.

My memory is that based on your posts here around 4 p.m. yesterday, you were one of those people.