eyewall Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I am starting to wonder for those actually looking forward to rain just how much we will actually get based on the current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Not much, I was hoping for maybe a quarter inch here, but now .1 is probably what it will be, as you can see from foothills post, and it is even worse over by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I am starting to wonder for those actually looking forward to rain just how much we will actually get based on the current radar. NOW you're wondering? I'm up to .13" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I don't know that I like going against the RUC. It's been a stellar model this season. However, the RGEM @ 24 hrs on the 18z is nice for SE KY, SW VA, and NE TN. It also seems to represent the current radar accurately - w/ the "comma head" looking separate from the main precipitation shield to its east. Will it be right? Who knows. It will be interesting to see which model is right, RUC or RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I know this is off topic...but to my untrained eyes this sure is some brutally cold air possible coming up next week. Pretty sure you can't post that here not that I'm saying I don't like seeing it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow, my area is getting a double dose of fail. No snow and then a lot less rain. I am happy for the peeps in Western Tn, Ky and East Ar. Looks like that will be the "sweet spot" when all is said and done. Too bad we do not have much coverage in terms of peeps out there, unless I am missing some obs (I have not read the obs thread yet). Good luck to those that are still in the "hunt". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 N C Foothills where exactly are you in the foothills?The reason i'm asking is I noticed your tempurature was 36 ,with rain, with north winds.With temps like that you're getting close to change from rain to snow aren't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 N C Foothills where exactly are you in the foothills?The reason i'm asking is I noticed your tempurature was 36 ,with rain, with north winds.With temps like that you're getting close to change from rain to snow aren't you? That is coming from HKY airport. I'm just south of there. Temp IMBY is 36.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow, Carolina Split... Less than 0.25" in the bucket, and given some sort of backfilling miracle tomorrow, major QPF fail here, and for many! Congrats TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow, Carolina Split... Less than 0.25" in the bucket, and given some sort of backfilling miracle tomorrow, major QPF fail here, and for many! Thank goodness this was just a rain event, can you imagine this board if this was supposed to be a snow event. Having to watch the precip split NC like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I have 0.01" of rain so far... This storm is a HUGE BUST here in regards to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow, Carolina Split... Less than 0.25" in the bucket, and given some sort of backfilling miracle tomorrow, major QPF fail here, and for many! Congrats TN I am relieved it wasn't snow now because the level of cliff diving would far surpass anything we saw this week when this went to hell. This storm sucks in all ways. As for the split could it have been due to coastal convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Pretty sure you can't post that here not that I'm saying I don't like seeing it here. http://www.daculaweather.com/ECMWF_12_850mb_temp_us.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I am relieved it wasn't snow now because the level of cliff diving would far surpass anything we saw this week when this when to hell. This storm sucks in all ways. I agree, Just a few days ago WNC was in for a big event! Now it's just a fail all the way around. Too many fails with one storm. Good thing most on this board have had a good year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 looks like it might be starting to fill in a little in alabama, so the rain may not yet be over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 http://www.daculawea...0mb_temp_us.php Oh, yeah, I know about that. Someone posted a 6-hour map with thicknesses and 6-hour precip, etc. It was deleted though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I agree, Just a few days ago WNC was in for a big event! Now it's just a fail all the way around. Too many fails with one storm. Good thing most on this board have had a good year so far. Yeah it is the Triangle area that I feel bad for this year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I am relieved it wasn't snow now because the level of cliff diving would far surpass anything we saw this week when this went to hell. This storm sucks in all ways. As for the split could it have been due to coastal convection? That was my thinking also, and most of the guidance indicated such a gap within about 48 hrs of the event which may have been taking this into account. The convection coupled with a broad and disorganized low pressure system atm are likely the cause. SPC meso shows a 1008mb low in the western FL Panhandle, but you can see from the isobars there are two areas, one working up into the southern apps, associated with the moisture in TN and KY, and a second off the GA/SC coast. The consolidation and sig strengthening should not happen till off the VA Capes, and that left us stuck in the middle, as evidenced by radar. Interesting no doubt in that there were some extreme solutions in the 4-7 day bringing this thing out of the Gulf <1000mb and mid 980's over or just off NC. Not going to happen and just another example of why one should not buy into extreme solutions, even with a general consensus, as they almost never verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What makes this even worse is that the Mid Atlantic thread looks to get hammered pretty good. Widespread 4-8" forecasted They have had a tough winter there though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NOW you're wondering? I'm up to .13" so far. I feel bad for you guys getting the shaft on the rain, even here in the wetlands of NW SC i've only squeezed out .3" today. These type of systems and modeling are what gives forecasters a bad name for the most part. It's like trying to build a house with a hammer with no head! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I feel bad for you guys getting the shaft on the rain, even here in the wetlands of NW SC i've only squeezed out .3" today. These type of systems and modeling are what gives forecasters a bad name for the most part. It's like trying to build a house with a hammer with no head! yeah I started watching it go downhill yesterday and then braced myself for this. Almost no rain at all. There is probably going to be a band come through early tomorrow though that could drop something though. I like that " nw SC wetlands" has a nice ring. You're right too, think you doubled my rain last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I won't lose too much sleep over the lack of rain tonight here but it is certainly something look at for future forecasting scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 yeah I started watching it go downhill yesterday and then braced myself for this. Almost no rain at all. There is probably going to be a band come through early tomorrow though that could drop something though. I like that " nw SC wetlands" has a nice ring. You're right too, think you doubled my rain last year. OK Robert, this one didn't live up to what we were hoping. Soooooooo let move on to the next one and see what it brings. No harm No foul.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 I won't lose too much sleep over the lack of rain tonight here but it is certainly something look at for future forecasting scenarios. It seems to be the trend especially this year. The closer and closer you get to these events from the gulf the lighter and lighter the qpf becomes once it makes it to us. I thought for sure this would be the storm that wouldn't do that and we would at least get a soaking rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm not sure what to make of the 0z NAM. It is showing 0.75-1.00" qpf over NE TN. Looks maybe a bit overblown. Can I get bufkit data before the run is over? The site I use requires that the model run go through 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It seems to be the trend especially this year. The closer and closer you get to these events from the gulf the lighter and lighter the qpf becomes once it makes it to us. I thought for sure this would be the storm that wouldn't do that and we would at least get a soaking rain. ok Burger, What is next up for storms?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 ok Burger, What is next up for storms?? They are talking about it in that Feb thread, looks like maybe next Thursday or Friday...which based on the last three storms means Monday in to Tuesday (2/7 and 2/8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Robert, Still comfortable with your just north and west of Nashville for the heavier accumulating snows with this deform band? It appears that was a good call in what I am seeing right now. I guess NWS is still going with 3-5 for mid TN, but I still think you might be right. I still think the heaviest of this translates into eastern KY and western VA, leaving KTRI to hope for a surprise. Looking at the latest RUC and NAM leads me to hang onto this thinking, even though I too find myself in a WSWarning, with a forecasted 3-5. Sorry you guys are getting hit with the old Carolina split. maybe you can squeeze out some moisture tomorrow morning when the ULL passes through. Thanks for all you bring to this board, it's greatly appreciated and you are a class act all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm not sure what to make of the 0z NAM. It is showing 0.75-1.00" qpf over NE TN. Looks maybe a bit overblown. Can I get bufkit data before the run is over? The site I use requires that the model run go through 84. I haven't checked it out lately but I would be looking more at trends and the RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm not sure what to make of the 0z NAM. It is showing 0.75-1.00" qpf over NE TN. Looks maybe a bit overblown. Can I get bufkit data before the run is over? The site I use requires that the model run go through 84. I think its overdone, but I still think your area could get on the southern end of the deformation band that sets up. You will be on the edge between the 1-3 and 3-6" snowfall on my map! For those interested (mainly TN/KY) this still looks like a decent event. Precipitation is ramping up across Alabama, and the deformation zone currently in place will fall apart and redevelop at some point along the Appalachians, likely from north NC through VA and WVA. While I don't really cover that area, I've posted an update and snowfall map on my blog http://blizzard.atms.unca.edu/~pppapin/local_jan.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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