burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I brought some mojo to the coast, so lets see if I can at least help the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS looks like the GFS. I can tell this is going to be a bogus run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Okay, I'll put this in the new thread. This is from the Asheville Citizen Times quoting NWS, which is one of the 1st accumulation projections I've seen(other than Andy Wood: ASHEVILLE — The Asheville area likely will get another fairly significant snow Tuesday and Wednesday. According to the National Weather Service, the city could get 2-3 inches of snow as a storm system moves up from the Gulf and collides with cold air over the mountains. Higher elevations to the north and west of Asheville could get 3-7 inches, Weather Service meteorologist Doug Outlaw said this afternoon. "Most of the accumulation should be late Tuesday night, from about midnight on, through about sunrise Wednesday," Outlaw said. It seems like with a system that dynamic, there would be more accumulation. Of course, 18z is dry. It's amazing how difficult forecasts have been this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea looks like the NAM...still anything on the table is for that low what a disaster this storm has become. @39 it's heading inland this will not look like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 FYI: Bad news from the NWS HQ, they've sent an administrative message indicating there are a lot of missing obs from the upper air balloon release today throwing a real wrench in forecasting models. Two of the sites AWOL are Peachtree City, GA and Birmingham, AL. This means if today's model cycles show big changes we won't know if its significant or a result of bad data ingest. Thankfully, there is time for them to fix it before we get to Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea looks like the NAM...still anything on the table is for that low what a disaster this storm has become. @39 it's heading inland this will not look like the NAM Really? I was thinking this was going to be east of the Euro, but I am probably wrong. Atleast at 42 it's not as neutral as the 12z Euro at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 at h5 is looks faster comparing 6z to 18z and looks a little stronger as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea and I take back what I said @45 it looks like the NAM we shall see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 FYI: Bad news from the NWS HQ, they've sent an administrative message indicating there are a lot of missing obs from the upper air balloon release today throwing a real wrench in forecasting models. Two of the sites AWOL are Peachtree City, GA and Birmingham, AL. This means if today's model cycles show big changes we won't know if its significant or a result of bad data ingest. Thankfully, there is time for them to fix it before we get to Wednesday. Agreed. I'm not looking at a model until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Does anyone remember how bad the gfs was with temps with the last storm? It took the 850 freezing line to the nc va border. In the end it never got above freeing at 850 over here. It was a major bust with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I brought some mojo to the coast You did, like 6" or more. Can you do that here? Okay, I'll put this in the new thread. This is from the Asheville Citizen Times quoting NWS, which is one of the 1st accumulation projections I've seen(other than Andy Wood: ASHEVILLE — The Asheville area likely will get another fairly significant snow Tuesday and Wednesday. According to the National Weather Service, the city could get 2-3 inches of snow as a storm system moves up from the Gulf and collides with cold air over the mountains. Higher elevations to the north and west of Asheville could get 3-7 inches, Weather Service meteorologist Doug Outlaw said this afternoon. "Most of the accumulation should be late Tuesday night, from about midnight on, through about sunrise Wednesday," Outlaw said. It seems like with a system that dynamic, there would be more accumulation. Of course, 18z is dry. It's amazing how difficult forecasts have been this winter. That reminds me of my dad calling me this morning to tell me he saw in the paper here about snowfall X accumulations, where there was a quote for X amount (can't remember). I guess the papers get a hold of this a little prematurely, but its the news I guess. A little early for amounts , imo. It could be a little, a lot , or even nothing more than a slushy inch or 2. Isn't that how a lot of our systems go. This isn't like the last one where we knew it was coming without a doubt, because all the models are just now evolving this system. None of them are exact, but they all agree about a pretty strong 5H travelling in lower Alabama/Ga and strengthening to closed status by eastern NC. Usually, that hits western NC mtns pretty hard. But whats missing is cold air this go round. Very unusual to see a lack of cold air with this, and I'm wondering why something coming out of Canada this time of year has such little cold air. Doesn't make much sense to me. But we'll soon find out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The northern energy appears weaker on the GFS at hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 FYI: Bad news from the NWS HQ, they've sent an administrative message indicating there are a lot of missing obs from the upper air balloon release today throwing a real wrench in forecasting models. Two of the sites AWOL are Peachtree City, GA and Birmingham, AL. This means if today's model cycles show big changes we won't know if its significant or a result of bad data ingest. Thankfully, there is time for them to fix it before we get to Wednesday. That would make a ton of sense this run has just about the perfect track for snow for us it looks like if it was cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well @636 that low in the east is right over north GA and pulling 850's down with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 it's obvious this second wave behind it is almost acting like a kicker. it will be interesting to see if these two waves actually interact in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 @72 you have snow at your house Robert...might be 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 In ancient times, when a curse had fallen on a tribe or a country, they would offer up a sacrifice. Seeing as how we just had a sacrifice maybe the snow Gods will consider a self sacrifice good enough and change the mojo. :lmao: Come on guys, let's back up punt and bring in some dynamic cooling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 it's obvious this second wave behind it is almost acting like a kicker. it will be interesting to see if these two waves actually interact in future runs. You can tell the GFS is having a hard time with temps...local bullseyes of low 850's one is right over Widre's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ULL hanging back and tracking through MS/AL/GA. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The GFS underscores how close a call this will be- I keeps the faint snow heartbeat going for GA from the northern Burbs and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Informative write-up by Kirk Mellish regarding the challenges with this one.. http://wsbradio.com/blogs/kirk_mellishs_weather_commentary/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good idea. I am considering the NAM and GFS out to lunch until tomorrow evening. Agreed. I'm not looking at a model until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The soundings for KAVL (Asheville Regional) and KMRN (Morganton-Lenoir) are creeping closer and closer with each GFS run. At 72 hours, Asheville is freezing or below all the way down to 900 mb and its only 1.2 at the 900mb level. At Morganton-Lenoir its 1.3 at 850 and 2 at 900mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Date: 3 day AVN valid 18Z WED 26 JAN 11 Station: 35.31,-81.23 Latitude: 35.31 Longitude: -81.23 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 67 SFC 977 254 2.4 2.1 97 0.4 2.3 330 9 277.4 278.2 276.6 289.8 4.55 2 950 483 2.4 0.5 87 1.9 1.6 348 21 279.7 280.4 277.3 291.2 4.17 3 900 918 -0.0 -1.5 90 1.4 -0.6 5 30 281.5 282.1 277.7 292.1 3.81 4 850 1376 -0.5 -1.4 94 0.9 -0.9 21 26 285.7 286.4 280.1 297.2 4.07 5 800 1860 -0.9 -1.4 96 0.5 -1.2 38 20 290.2 290.9 282.4 302.6 4.31 6 750 2375 -2.3 -2.7 97 0.5 -2.5 59 13 294.1 294.9 284.0 306.4 4.17 7 700 2921 -4.4 -4.8 97 0.4 -4.6 77 8 297.6 298.3 284.9 309.1 3.83 8 650 3502 -7.3 -7.6 97 0.4 -7.4 101 4 300.7 301.3 285.6 310.9 3.31 9 600 4122 -10.8 -11.2 97 0.4 -10.9 108 1 303.6 304.1 286.1 312.1 2.70 10 550 4786 -15.0 -15.4 97 0.4 -15.1 325 2 306.3 306.7 286.4 313.0 2.10 11 500 5500 -20.0 -20.2 98 0.2 -20.0 331 7 308.7 309.0 286.6 313.7 1.53 12 450 6272 -26.2 -26.5 98 0.2 -26.3 330 14 310.3 310.5 286.6 313.6 0.98 13 400 7112 -33.1 -33.3 98 0.2 -33.1 332 22 312.0 312.1 286.7 314.0 0.58 14 350 8034 -40.9 -41.2 97 0.3 -40.9 336 29 313.6 313.6 286.9 314.6 0.30 15 300 9069 -45.7 -52.9 44 7.2 -46.0 281 10 321.0 321.0 289.2 321.3 0.09 16 250 10287 -44.7 -63.9 10 19.3 -45.3 255 34 339.7 339.7 294.3 339.8 0.03 17 200 11772 -47.5 -66.9 9 19.4 -48.1 264 50 357.5 357.5 298.2 357.6 0.02 18 150 13644 -54.6 -72.6 9 18.0 -54.9 269 58 376.0 376.0 301.6 376.1 0.01 19 100 16185 -61.9 -82.3 5 20.3 -62.1 264 44 408.1 408.1 306.3 408.1 0.00 TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The soundings for KAVL (Asheville Regional) and KMRN (Morganton-Lenoir) are creeping closer and closer with each GFS run. Even I'm not that far out of the ball game if you believe the wetbulbs in the sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I"m starting to agree with tarheelwx from yesterday. If we can get this thing to come in just abit later, like 6 hours or so, tuesday night, i think things may actually be a bit colder at the surface. part of the problem is this is coming into NC right at the peak sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Look at the precip cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Informative write-up by Kirk Mellish regarding the challenges with this one.. http://wsbradio.com/...her_commentary/ Thanks for the link. It was spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You can tell the GFS is having a hard time with temps...local bullseyes of low 850's one is right over Widre's house. Yep. We'll continue to see that too, esp. in the NAM I think as it tries to see dynamic cooling. If you notice , the spread between 850 contours is large over a geographic region, indicative of not a lot of WAA at 850, and with the lack of anything much above zero at 850, then it won't be that hard to bring flakes to the surface. All that will be needed is good lift , and of course elevation really helps...as does time of day. Anyway, I think this run didn't fully absorb the vort coming into the Midwest, so its not that strong of a cutoff, but does still cutoff. Thats going to be a big player. As it stands now though, this animation shows how a good it could be for areas just to its north and west, generally in a line from northern Ala to central NC, as that is the period that everything is going to be maximized to the fullest for the snow potential of this, when the air is coldest, the lift is greatest, the 7H moisture and deformation band is working its hardest. All that basically still points to n. Ala, Ga, eTN, w NC and maybe w SC but downslope here may hurt in the Upstate and in the western Piedmont of NC, not to mention a terrible time of day for it's arrival. I think the Mtns still look good though for the best chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 As a matter of fact, this aint too far from a heavy wet snow sounding for KCLT: Date: 3 day AVN valid 18Z WED 26 JAN 11 Station: KCLT Latitude: 35.22 Longitude: -80.93 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 66 SFC 983 206 2.5 2.0 96 0.5 2.2 329 12 277.0 277.8 276.3 289.2 4.48 2 950 481 1.5 -0.1 89 1.6 0.8 349 27 278.7 279.4 276.5 289.8 4.00 3 900 914 -1.8 -2.3 96 0.5 -2.0 7 35 279.6 280.2 276.5 289.6 3.58 4 850 1369 -1.3 -1.7 97 0.4 -1.4 29 26 284.8 285.5 279.6 296.1 3.98 5 800 1853 -1.0 -1.3 98 0.3 -1.2 59 20 290.1 290.8 282.4 302.6 4.34 6 750 2368 -1.9 -2.3 97 0.4 -2.1 94 16 294.5 295.3 284.2 307.2 4.30 7 700 2915 -3.8 -4.2 97 0.4 -4.0 122 13 298.2 299.0 285.4 310.2 3.99 8 650 3498 -6.6 -7.0 97 0.4 -6.8 144 11 301.5 302.1 286.1 312.1 3.47 9 600 4119 -10.2 -10.6 97 0.4 -10.4 148 6 304.3 304.8 286.4 313.1 2.84 10 550 4784 -14.8 -15.1 97 0.4 -14.9 329 3 306.6 307.0 286.5 313.4 2.15 11 500 5498 -20.2 -20.5 98 0.2 -20.3 330 14 308.4 308.7 286.5 313.3 1.50 12 450 6269 -26.5 -26.7 99 0.2 -26.5 329 22 309.9 310.1 286.5 313.2 0.96 13 400 7108 -33.0 -33.1 99 0.1 -33.0 334 28 312.1 312.2 286.8 314.1 0.59 14 350 8031 -41.0 -41.3 97 0.3 -41.0 337 33 313.4 313.5 286.9 314.5 0.29 15 300 9066 -44.8 -57.8 22 13.0 -45.3 268 9 322.2 322.2 289.5 322.4 0.05 16 250 10287 -44.5 -65.1 8 20.6 -45.2 250 35 339.8 339.9 294.3 339.9 0.02 17 200 11775 -47.4 -66.9 9 19.4 -48.0 259 50 357.6 357.6 298.2 357.7 0.02 18 150 13645 -54.7 -72.5 9 17.8 -55.1 266 59 375.8 375.8 301.6 375.9 0.01 19 100 16187 -62.1 -82.3 5 20.2 -62.3 262 45 407.8 407.8 306.2 407.8 0.00 TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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