Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 850 low central to southern Al at 60.. About the only thing im watching from here on is midlevel temps. The qpf is gonna be there. I just need to keep it below freezing from 850 up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Goes neg tilt to late to really bomb the system out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 looking at the total qpf its drier and further south. I think it has to do with the double low center in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Look at the precip cutoff. I need to start building a ARK for us Coasties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At 63, Nice deformation band setting up at 700 in all of N AL and central and east Tenn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM at 72 a nice deformation band crosses the North Carolina Foothills and Piedmont. This is a very strange model run. Lets see what happens with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hello CLT @72! Am I seeing something wrong here or is that probably snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At 63, Nice deformation band setting up at 700 in all of N AL and central and east Tenn. And that is the one to watch as most of the guidance has showed this backside band, differences in where which will be resolved, but is it mostly SN imo given the UL features passing overhead, or just to the SE of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow explosion @75 RDU might be the big winner and so might CLT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can someone tell me what happened between hour 54 and 60 on the NAM model? 2 low pressures??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At 63, Nice deformation band setting up at 700 in all of N AL and central and east Tenn. and it spreads across NC at 72 hours and beyond. Its delayed again. Looking at the 925 temps they're around +2 in a lot of areas under that band, so if the rates are good, and I imagine they should be with that stronga 5H, then a lot of areas will make the switch atleast for a while to snow. Still hate the timing for the CLT area though. But if it delays again, it will Wednesday night after dark anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Very nice warp around at 72....levels would drop quickly... Wow explosion @75 RDU might be the big winner and so might CLT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 And that is the one to watch as most of the guidance has showed this backside band, differences in where which will be resolved, but is it mostly SN imo given the UL features passing overhead, or just to the SE of it. That is a nice looking comma head! It really nails E Tenn and western NC. N AL and N GA get some good snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 one good possible new trend Im seeing here and Im behind burger is at 60 on the trough is hinting going negative, but its doing it futher south and east toward Florida panhandle , not out near LA/MS. This will set the deformation band up futher east and allow the cold to drain down hard on the backside over ETN,NC upstate, instead of MS and North AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This run is nothing more than a moral booster, but if this continues for the tail end of this storm, then Ill start putting some faith into it, but until then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 and it spreads across NC at 72 hours and beyond. Its delayed again. Looking at the 925 temps they're around +2 in a lot of areas under that band, so if the rates are good, and I imagine they should be with that stronga 5H, then a lot of areas will make the switch atleast for a while to snow. Still hate the timing for the CLT area though. But if it delays again, it will Wednesday night after dark anyway. RDU cashes in if this run were to verify...what a twist of fortunes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow for dylan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 how about nga for this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hello CLT @72! Am I seeing something wrong here or is that probably snow? If it is we are in business. It drops 1" of precip from hr 69 to 75! That has to be a deformation band! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM snowfall maps say congrats RDU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Verbatim, we got HEAVY snow in Raleigh as the storm exits. Also, the NAM takes this baby out to sea. I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If it is we are in business. It drops 1" of precip from hr 69 to 75! That has to be a deformation band! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 RDU cashes in if this run were to verify...what a twist of fortunes. Well in my prelimary map I had the moisture streaking out east with that band, completely to the coast, and thats based on teh low mostly a coastal and the 5H closing off over lower Alabama then curving northeast, which its doing, so I'm not that surprised. The temps of course will be the problem in NC east of the mtns, but one pro for NC is that the rates by then are probably at or near their max by then compared to further west due to it being better developed. Its hard to say at this point out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM snowfall maps say congrats RDU! <333333 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Lol, just as I had completely written this storm off the freaking NAM yanks me back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 how about nga for this run? 850 temps are cold enough to support snow on the backside. This trended alot colder this run. This is getting close to all snow for western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 and it spreads across NC at 72 hours and beyond. Its delayed again. Looking at the 925 temps they're around +2 in a lot of areas under that band, so if the rates are good, and I imagine they should be with that stronga 5H, then a lot of areas will make the switch atleast for a while to snow. Still hate the timing for the CLT area though. But if it delays again, it will Wednesday night after dark anyway. It looks like it shows it around late afternoon which is certainly better than 12-2 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'd take it too but NAM must be smoking crack. That explosion of precip doesn't match up with where the low is. Take a look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Verbatim, we got HEAVY snow in Raleigh as the storm exits. Also, the NAM takes this baby out to sea. I'd take it. Yeah, it would be nice to see some flakes, but we are still 72 hours away, it seems this storm won't get closer. I am just happy about seeing some rain, we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 RDU cashes in if this run were to verify...what a twist of fortunes. My interpretation of the run, inline with the original thoughts, even though I believe H5 will wrap up and close off much more so than what this model showed as an open wave off the NC coast at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can't buy into this run until about mid day Tuesday sadly. Maybe my mojo is working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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