Alpha5 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 at 84, the 850 line is a bit SE of 95 32 line nw of 95 NAM at 84..you know the deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Threaded the needle at 84. I cant believe how this year has gone....yesterday it looked like this storm was gonna bury the interior now were back to the ultra-strong low with the ridiculous western gradient to the precipitation. I dont think precip gets much farther west than the western philly burbs and this is a dream track @ 84 just off the coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That sim is a classic ccb setting up over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 at 84, the 850 line is a bit SE of 95 32 line nw of 95 NAM at 84..you know the deal 25 mile wide snow shield with this one...mix/rain se of 95 and no precip in E PA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Would need to check soundings. Could be rain or snow in phl area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 at 84, the 850 line is a bit SE of 95 32 line nw of 95 NAM at 84..you know the deal 850 line is across central jersey out into the atlantic. and the surface has cooled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just checked soundings. That is snow in NYC. Also snow at Trenton. Probably mixing issues or even rain at Philly, but really close. KBLM near Asbury Park is likely rain or a mix but also very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Seeing what the DPs are before this comes in at 78 hours would be usefull....34/25 the coast is in business....37/30 not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Of course the clear trend is west....so unlikely west trend is over. Still a good bet nyc, long island and phl go to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just checked soundings. That is snow at KNYC. Twisterdata says that snow has accumulated at 84 hours frm Philly NW: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=12&fhour=84¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false and remember as the low comes up the coast more cold air would likely be drawn into its west side. Going to be a close call, but fun to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Its the NAM at 84 hours and there is not much wriggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 this is from Twister Data and is pretty close to NYC. I used the point and click. That is a snow sounding. Maybe a tick above freezing at surface but notice the winds in the sounding. As the low moved up and east NE winds should keep cold flow into the storm but its all extrapolation and will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The NAM basically indicates a repeat of 1/6-1/7 2002 except this time its 150 miles south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Would need to check soundings. Could be rain or snow in phl area. If the wind direction is anything less than say 65 then the BL should be warm only at the surface (if that's even the case- can't tell on my phone. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 KBLM near Asbury Park is probably a mix or rain but it is really close as per soundings. Seeing what the DPs are before this comes in at 78 hours would be usefull....34/25 the coast is in business....37/30 not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Of course the clear trend is west....so unlikely west trend is over. Still a good bet nyc, long island and phl go to rain IMore like an oscillation than a trend. Went SE at 06. NAM has been bouncing all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The NAM basically indicates a repeat of 1/6-1/7 2002 except this time its 150 miles south and east What happened with that storm?? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Definitely moved toward the Euro. Of course the clear trend is west....so unlikely west trend is over. Still a good bet nyc, long island and phl go to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 there is not trend west. not sure what "my weathermodel says" is talking about... Again its the NAM at 84 hours so assume its least a bit over "westified" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just checked soundings. That is snow in NYC. Also snow at Trenton. Probably mixing issues at Philly, but really close. Verbatim this run I worry if extrapolated we get mainly grazed to the NW. Suspect it would only come so far north then begin to scoot off more to the NE. Always dangersous to do that extrapolatioin thing and again it is just based verbatim on this run. Still much uncertainty with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What happened with that storm?? Rossi A fugly as hell setup with no cold air really in place...storm tracked over the cities and pounded AVP/ALB and the Catskills...Albany had 13 inches of snow in 3 hours...NYC did have WSWs out earlier in the day on a horrific forecast put out based on 00Z runs which headfaked east...the 06Z runs came in with the 850 line over sussex county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 As per soundings, that is exactly the case in NYC and Trenton. If the wind direction is anything less than say 65 then the BL should be warm only at the surface (if that's even the case- can't tell on my phone. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_850_084m.gif Talk about threading the needle! Nice position of the 850 low at 84 hours guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I cant believe how this year has gone....yesterday it looked like this storm was gonna bury the interior now were back to the ultra-strong low with the ridiculous western gradient to the precipitation. I dont think precip gets much farther west than the western philly burbs and this is a dream track @ 84 just off the coastline 25 mile wide snow shield with this one...mix/rain se of 95 and no precip in E PA... Really, what is up with these tight north and/or west gradients the past couple years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah it was before the 12/26 Blizzard....all the models had it OTS but then the GFS brought it back at 12z. In their next update the HPC said through out the GFS because of initialization errors.....by 12z the next day every model had the storm. Ah, thanks for the info. Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Really, what is up with these tight north and/or west gradients the past couple years? Think it is just the lows getting so wrapped up and strong that it sucks the western edge in toward the low center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Think it is just the lows getting so wrapped up and strong that it sucks the western edge in toward the low center Add lack of a strong high pressure to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Snowgoose69 and others, do you forsee NYC and LI getting 13-15 inches of cement and 35 knot winds, for a wet snow blizzard ? NAM latest trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Not so bold when you consider what the Euro is currently showing in comparison. That doesn't explain anything . The Euro has also been flipping around with temps and the track of this storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Snowgoose69 and others, do you forsee NYC and LI getting 13-15 inches of cement and 35 knot winds, for a wet snow blizzard ? NAM latest trend. Ratios may be 8 to 1 with this, I'm not sure the QPF will be enough even though models might say so right now....I could see 4-8 or 5-10 if we got a track similar to 12/26 which is about what I think we will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.