WxWatcher007

Weak sauce here. A little surprised I didn’t capture more lightning given how active the cells to the west were. I’m pretty annoyed at how boring it has been, but it is what it is.

On cue, the operational guidance is starting to respond to what should become an increasingly favorable environment in the MDR in the last 1/3 of June. Still a bit early, but my interest has increased a little.

Looks like a little rotation

I have low standards generally when it comes to severe around here. If I can get a few good lightning captures, I’d call that a win. The backed winds piece is interesting to me.

I like seeing the stuff popping to the west but I’m gonna TFizz this one and say I’m bearish on the setup. Would have liked to see more instability before initialization.

Severe watch unlikely per SPC lol

Cute little cell near Poughkeepsie

This has been an absurdly boring stretch.

It was a fantastic day. The problem with work from home is I work so much I don’t leave the house during the day. Got an easy mow in this evening though.

Just started working out the last few months, after being really ill in the months before. I’m a new man. Evenings during the week to decompress after work. Mornings on weekend to start my day.

We rain. We rejoice.

Now that’s really interesting. If it continues on, that may allow for some greater instability to build out in the eastern MDR—something that has been a struggle in recent years.

Complete opposite of May.

Wouldn't be surprising as we move into July. Climo starts to open up the broader basin. We're starting to see the atmosphere respond to the rapidly strengthening Nino, but as mentioned before, the outrageous warming in the tropical Atlantic ups the chances of a nontraditional (read: normal to above normal) hurricane season--which would be a tremendous feat given this ENSO period. With historic warmth across the early AEW (for the uninitiated, a tropical wave) developing, and both the GEFS and EPS are in agreement (today at least) that wind shear across the MDR will be anomalously low as we close out June. However, I think the most important factor in getting the MDR going early will be instability. Right now, that's not looking particularly high right now, but likely increases over the coming weeks. For those that will be tracking, this is my annual message that as you're looking at operational and ensemble guidance, don't look for the weenie surface depictions. If you want to get a sense of discrete windows outside of the usual 500mb stuff, look at the vorticity plots. I like starting at 850mb on operational models, and the ensemble mean MSLP for the ensembles.

Go west. Go west. Go west.

Wednesday does look a little interesting

Oh yeah, definitely fantasy runs. Just have to try to watch for the broader TC genesis pattern in the last 1/3 of June.

18z ends the drought!

There’s always one doom run

.20” on the day.

From earlier. Love the smell of rain in the air.

Good day for that here too

Boring here.

Any of these storms going to be a step up from meh today?

I saw something similar last year and it was completely wrong lol. Haven’t seen it that often though. We’ll see if we get a CAG pattern around the 20th.