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SnowGoose69

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. Tornado risk looks to be most central and eastern LI based on radar. Nassau should dry slot
  2. You don’t necessarily always mix down winds on S or SE flow. I suspect the event being during the day will help somewhat but we’ve seen plenty of events similar to this which underachieve somewhat
  3. NNE moving tropicals verify east of the NHC forecast at 24-48 hours 90% of the time I think.
  4. Remember these things tend to be a bit more east of what you expect. I would not be surprised to see the metro spared the worst winds in the end with a 20-30 mile east kick. Central-East LI though are locks to see strong winds
  5. The development just jumped east over the Bronx likely due to some sort of outflow. I don’t think it’ll get onto Long Island but there’s so much going on now with the outflow I wouldn’t be surprised. I hear thunder here in Merrick almost constantly now
  6. Didn’t think the metro would see much but if this outflow makes it into southern parts of the 5 boroughs or Nassau it’s possible
  7. LGA went from 95/49 to 88/66 when the sea breeze came across
  8. Saranac Lake supposedly broke their all time record for the the entire year. Not just May.
  9. The last 30 years its been awfully hard to see 3 consecutive duds in a row. We have been tending more towards extremes so it seems when we have 2 bad winters the next one has always been somewhat good. 1996-1999 was an exception
  10. Likely some type of atmospheric lag from the 09-10 Nino which usually has (and did) have significant blocking. Obviously we did not see that same impact in the 98-99 winter but we did in the 83-84 winter which most would have probably forecast to be a torch and was not.
  11. NYC needs to make up 4.1 degrees by 5/31 to not finish top 10 coolest for May. I'm sure it'll happen but it might not be by much. 1973 was the last May to average below 60. 2008 was close
  12. 1996 never hit 90 after May until like 8/25. And it was a legit no 90 either. I want to say LGA/JFK never hit 90 once during that stretch and EWR hit 90 maybe 1 or 2 times and it was only 90, not even 91.
  13. Didn't realize NYC broke the record for 5/8 as well as they reached 36 at midnight
  14. Still no info yet if JFK or EWR tied their all time records of 34 and 33. both might have between hours
  15. Interesting how whatever the effects that existed back in 1947 still exist today. LGA just can’t go below 37 (at least officially yet) Same thing happened the morning in 47 when all the stations set lows
  16. I doubt it. The wind flow is too WNW. The air mass aloft though does cool at 850 another 1-2 degrees or so. The best cold advection occurs the next few hours. I wouldn’t be shocked if NYC maybe got to 33 or EWR got to 33
  17. NYC has tied the daily record of 35 and LGA has tied their May all time record of 37 as of 2am
  18. 5/6/1891. Only time NYC went below 34 in May. All other records are 34 are higher and I think there’s just one 34 day
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