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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Its totally anecdotal but I swear anytime we have confluence issues the CMC seems to nail the idea in the medium range...could be due to some type of added sampling in Canada perhaps but I seem to recall so many cases where we had squashing/meat grinder concerns on the table and the CMC was pounding the idea over the Euo/GFS it tended to have some merit in the end result.
  2. SnowGoose69
    Its been lousy this winter...I thought it was my imagination til someone in the SNE forum posted the numbers....the last 2 winters the wildly progressive pattern and NRN Stream dominance due to the La Nina played into its natural biases but the El Nino this winter with a more active SRN Stream its not been as good
  3. SnowGoose69
    Main issue again though is not sure we have the air mass to tap even if the GFS at 18Z happened precisely in that way...the old DT rule was if you wanna go rain to snow near the coast here you better be -10 at 700 nearby and its not even close to that really...the other way to do it is a slow moving vertically stacked bomb but thats not the case either.
  4. SnowGoose69
    CIPS sure loves many events that bullseyed Philly or C-S NJ. I would not be surprised with an end result where BDL gets smashed or Philly does and BDL sees cirrus...its really still possible anything in that range happens
  5. SnowGoose69
    Too many moving pieces and still too far out but if you're near the NYC snow hole this is by far the best chance at this range I have seen this winter for anything remotely significant to happen. That said, this easily could end up another Orange County bullseye or Philly bullseye.
  6. SnowGoose69
    The problem we keep having this winter is too many storms keep happening right at the start of pattern transitions...that said, this one has a chance still to produce for the coast more than the previous 2-3 instances did
  7. SnowGoose69
    Its main reason I have skeptical of any mod or strong La Nina next winter....it may not even be weak, I still think it ends up near neutral
  8. SnowGoose69
    Historically the stronger Nino March years have sucked but this winter has not exactly had the classic strong Nino pattern at all anyway
  9. SnowGoose69
    There is going to be more SE ridging I think in the 2/11/-2/15 period than many think. I feel some felt 2/13-2/15 would become prime time, and maybe for those in NYC or BOS it could have chances but for the SE you probably are looking at 2/17 or so.
  10. SnowGoose69
    There are hints of that a bit at the end of the ensembles that the ridge is getting punched a bit by the Pac....I doubt this pattern has a ton of staying power as no pattern all winter really has
  11. SnowGoose69
    The GFS/GEFS have hinted that there may be more SE ridging now 2/10-2/15 than initially shown a few days ago, if that happens its possible something could go occur there
  12. SnowGoose69
    This change to me is way less likely to fail or be muted than the January change because its more +PNA based than -EPO/-PNA based...those patterns as a whole when shown in the longer range can alter slightly and fail or still lead to cutters where as the pattern on most ensembles for mid Febraury is not as likely too
  13. SnowGoose69
    I think they've been too east based and or they are fake blocks/ some have argued a big ass block over Hudson Bay does not technically qualify as a -NAO and it can cause issues with the TPV/phasing too early....even a +PNA that is too far west can cause cutting...12/15/89 I believe here would qualify as a +PNA and this storm cut but there were some other issues too over the Oh Valley/east region. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1989/us1215.php
  14. SnowGoose69
    I think having a +PNA this time is going to make it harder for this to fail or be only like a 7-10 day change. I am not sure there is any real science or proof to this but after 30 plus years I have found +PNA/Aleutian low setups can be a bitch to break down, it seems way easier to kill the -EPO/-NAO or -EPO/+NAO type setup or certainly it can have more go wrong if it shows up 12-15 days out where you get cutters...you ain't getting any cutters in that setup
  15. SnowGoose69
    They'll probably end up somewhere between 8-14 inches in the end if I had to guess...still could end up another top 10 snowless..how we pull that off in a Nino is beyond me....
  16. SnowGoose69
    As I had said 10 days or more ago 2/3-2/8 was probably going to be the warmest stretch...it may be more 2/6-2/10 but fairly close
  17. SnowGoose69
    Just take a neutral state...its sure better than 3-4-5
  18. SnowGoose69
    Ensembles do now show a bit of a ridging signal 2/7-2/10 now which was not shown recently but lets remember the period from 2/1-2/7 7-10 days ago looked horrific compared to what it does now.
  19. SnowGoose69
    I think its more likely to end up neutral than anything else
  20. SnowGoose69
    Timing wise to have the high/cold air supply present and as far as deepening at the right time probably is
  21. SnowGoose69
    Closest comparison to this is probably March 15 99 as far as air mass and storm track, did not have the cards on the table for that til basically go time. This is about as thread the needle as it gets.
  22. SnowGoose69
    It sure is weird generally seeing more GEFS members and more GFS Op runs wanna be cold....thats the complete reverse of what we've seen most of the last 4 years when we have gotten faked out in the long range....it may be the typical tendency or "rumored tendency" as Tip said that the GFS just generally does worse in El Nino winters and the EPS/Euro tend to do better.
  23. SnowGoose69
    Probably too late to matter, if it did that the impacts would not take hold til mid March when we'd be done anyway...I still think 2/12-3/5 is going to likely average below normal though I am wondering if the MA might be more favorable for any storm track
  24. SnowGoose69
    Mixed...I just looked from 190-204 the Op has the trof a bit more west than the ensemble average does but many individual members are similar to the Op
  25. SnowGoose69
    I'm semi confused why the Op GFS is so consistently going relatively cold....often times you can look to the model MJO idea but if anything the GFS progression should argue more for warmth than the Euro.
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