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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    12KM NAM as far as the R/S line is closest as of 17Z but I do not buy its idea of big snows 00-06Z for LGA/NYC region as I think this thing is already giving way and weakening by then
  2. SnowGoose69
    It has about 3 for LGA based off the QPF
  3. SnowGoose69
    The 06Z Euro might be the closest to verifying right now. Its got the area off the coast and the semi dry slot between bands. It is underdone though over N NJ to some extent but is still probably verifying best
  4. SnowGoose69
    Its already wrong. Its 16-17Z depiction based on current radar does not have the showery look between CDW-FRG. I'm trying to find a high res model at the moment that seems to be handling this best. Overall the HRRR might be closest.
  5. SnowGoose69
    Upton might be planning changes. Their new TAFs for LGA JFK have mod snow now LGA NWS 021542 AMD KLGA 021541Z 0216/0318 FM021800 36014KT 3SM -SNRA BR OVC008 FM021900 36014G24KT 2SM -SN BR OVC008 TEMPO 0221/0301 1/2SM SN FG OVC006 FM030100 35017G25KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR OVC008 FM030500 34018G27KT 6SM -SN BR OVC015 FM030900 32016G22KT P6SM BKN030 BKN050 FM031300 31015G21KT P6SM SCT030 BKN080
  6. SnowGoose69
    So far the models all seem to be too far to the east with everything based off the current observations so I'm still leaning mostly towards a miss in NYC
  7. SnowGoose69
    I don’t believe any model will get this extremely correct. When you look at the 06Z models and the latest HRRR all of them to some degree have the current setup wrong
  8. SnowGoose69
    Nothing high res at 06Z really showed that band there. I’m not sure if that’s a long duration feature or not. The area over NYC was shown on most models but it was further west than it currently is
  9. SnowGoose69
    Today Show was just outside and it looked like PLSNRA
  10. SnowGoose69
    The UKMET definitely came east with the core of the QPF over NYC
  11. SnowGoose69
    The HRDPS and RGEM vary a ton from winter to winter. They were awful last year. Today the RGEM was very good hitting the heavy totals from Albany to MA. The HRDPS not as much
  12. SnowGoose69
    Inside 24 its very good. Beyond that it typically isnt very consistent
  13. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR beyond 8 hours is bad. It actually was awful today with the weather coming through here. The 3Km NAM really nailed today’s event overall
  14. SnowGoose69
    I’m not sure how the hell they are 9 miles and light rain. The Ptype aside those DBZs should at least be producing 4-5 miles light rain
  15. SnowGoose69
    Keep in mind it does show decent QPF east of there to like the Nassau border but it “thinks” it’s rain. I don’t know if that would be the case
  16. SnowGoose69
    18Z Euro at fast glance without seeing snow maps would seem to have heaviest snows bounded by FWN-CDW or so but it was a rough glance. It seemed less impressive for central to southern NJ and inched its way closer to NYC but not there yet
  17. SnowGoose69
    It looks to me to still have the best snows over NJ to their W-NW but it’s been creeping East with that area. It won’t take much to get it over NYC but with marginal temps the snow accum maps are gonna be way off. I think 4-7 with maxes of 8-9 will be the best anyone sees there
  18. SnowGoose69
    BOS might get a brief window depending how that sleet line advances. One of the mesos, The 3Km NAM I think hinted that they’d change over at 00-01 but then have a period of heavy PLSN at 03-04Z just ahead of the complete changeover to rain
  19. SnowGoose69
    This is the typical early season lousy snow growth setup where radar looks impressive suggesting mod snow 1/2SM but Logan is 33-35 in east flow and does not have temps supporting good snow growth. I had them getting 4-5 but I doubt it happens now.
  20. SnowGoose69
    There has been an ever so slight nudge east it seems at 12 and 18Z today overall but probably still need a 30-50 mile shift. That can more or less occur simply off average model error by this time tomorrow
  21. SnowGoose69
    As expected Central Park reported a trace despite the fact at one point there was about a 1/2 inch on the ground similar to at the Giants game
  22. SnowGoose69
    The temps are so marginal and the band likely won't be as expansive as modeled so those totals will be limited to small areas. I would expect you'd see mostly 4-7 with isolated area over that
  23. SnowGoose69
    3K NAM now has BOS over to rain at 01z. My forecast of 4-5 will be very wrong if that is correct.
  24. SnowGoose69
    The good news for the snowhounds is that the 3km NAM was by far the best model today on ptype/changeover time. If it holds its idea for tomorrow the snow axis is definitely further east than the other guidance.
  25. SnowGoose69
    Winds flipping 070-080 now at JFK. that mini wedge is starting to be punched out. All await that T measurement from NYC now....it was about a half inch here
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