wdrag

II would like to try to collect a few reports in one focused thread, of any ice hazards, and possible radial thickness on branches, (difficult to check at night). SPC HREF has elevation icing forecast. South of I-84, it tends to be a degree or so cold but n of I-84 the HREF tends to be very very good. Again, most of us may not have anything, and even here at 740'MSL in nw NJ, i could miss, but not far north of me..I expect elevation problems tonight. I'll clean up this opening note if reports start flowing. Thanks.

Welcome to February and radiational cooling in nw NJ, Lows this morning 10 below, Pequest, Andover (12N), 15 below Sussex (FWN), 16-22 Below Sandyston and Walpack respectively, all in Warren and Sussex Counties of nw NJ. My house (740'MSL in Wantage NJ, ~3 mi from FWN and 250' higher only -2. Ditto -2 at High Point. This over 4" snow cover throughout. Guidance (coldest MOS), missed Sussex by at least 7F. I believe these subzero readings will occur again tonight, though probably 5 or 10F warmer. Still, we're not quite out of this below normal cold airmass here. I am also aware of the EC 2M 7-10Fbust for yesterday morning near CHI (uncommon in a well mixed environment). At least it picked up on Rockford, and apparently per Joe Bastardi tweet, it got down to near ~ -38F in nw IL (unconfirmed coldest state record?). Have a good day anticipating, after Feb 6 (ice events i84), or after Feb 14 (snow) as many have noted here. A BIG test for FV3 vs the currently operational GFS from Feb 7 onward when the FV3 is much colder than its soon to replace GFS. This one I want to remember (Feb 7-15 00z/06z versions). I've seen FV3 miss date of events compared to the current GFS. However, am informed that the FV3 is apparently better on on type than the GFS. This I dont know. I may not break able top respond after 845A today. By the way, you're seeing infrastructure impacts now in the coldest parts of the country-watert mains. Yesterday here in nw NJ... groups of trucks could not start early yesterday morning (subzero), delaying deliveries.

For your post event summary... from NHSRSC.

I heard low was 2F at NYC CP this morning. Haven't had chance to verify and on the run now , but I hard only 4 days this cold in the past 30 years... heard from one of your favorite long rangers. It is having impact here today. Walt

The min yes as you remember, the mean no. Here is an attachment. Chicago definitely not making -27 this morning... cold core departed and EC appears terrible on its 2m there at this time.

Yes on EC op for the next 10 days. Of interest, and while it may be a tad cold... potential substantial ice event nePA/nw NJ newd up I84 to MA 6th-7th, a climatologically very favorable period for winter storms in the Boston area. So, no snow, ... but winter ice hazard may be of interest for planners 6th-7th FV3 I think is in that direction as well and supposedly FV3 already an advantage in testing, vs GFS in ptype. I have no faith FV3, timing vs GFS.

Good Thursday morning all, For the record... Chicago yesterday, experienced its 2nd coldest day in its 145+ years of recorded history... average T -16.5F The coldest day was 12/24/83 avg -18F. For what its worth, I was stationed at NWS MKE back in the 1980's severe cold snaps. Back then, if your car was not garaged in these -20sF outbreaks, there was a good chance it would NOT start because of the oil congealing, or battery failure. 3F/31 at 5A in NYC. ECMWF 2m temps have overall been better than the GFS 2m T in well mixed environments, both CHI and NYC (though I could see a failure at CHI this morning, still tbd).

Wantage NJ 8 S of High Point. A brief sw/sw+ around 215-230P estimated 0.2" Season total 20.1

Wantage NJ (8 s High Point) finished at 4.1. 19.9 for the season (9.4 this month and more to come). Am expecting everyone to to receive between 1/4 and 1.5" in a 5 to 25 minute whiteout from east to east 1P-430PM across ne PA NNJ to NYC. Treacherous few minutes of driving when the arctic frontal squall strikes. NW wind to 45 mph with considerable blowing/drifting late afternoon evening where 3+ inches of snow fell (see wind advisory. 1P temp 25-30ish, should drop to about zero at 8PM in nw NJ and ne PA. I see NYC had just a skiff here and there late last night but it did snow. No salvation for the snow thirsty. This should be a little better for for NYC mid afternoon . Still looks like 2-3F low tomorrow morning NYC. Thursday's NYC max not as cold as I thought (modeled) in previous days but still only ~14? How about an inch of snow "possible" Friday afternoon and maybe a surprisingly cold Saturday morning in the wake of a weak surface wave moving off to our south. Seems to me EPS/GEFS Models are gravitating to a -NAO soon. This image is the 00z/29 GEFS reforecast. Not sure if this better than what is traditionally posted here. 00z/30 posts around 16z.

Wantage Nj 8 s of High Point Probable final storm total 4.1". SB around 803A. Might get another tenth or two overnight but am not staying up for it. If I have anything to add, will do it in the morning. Thanks for participating in this thread. AND, watch the radar growth upstream vcnty TTN-PHL at 852P. It's not over NYC, at least not for a skiff of snow NYC 10P-2A and even possibly 1" on cars somewhere in the 5 boroughs? Roads mainly wet. Max here in Wantage Nj today was 28.0. Might bounce up when the wind mixes toward midnight. Have a good night and rooting for you NYC.

Wantage NJ solid 4" at 815P. I think we might top out 4.5 or so here. My last report will be at 845P. Have a good night and thanks for participating enmasse. Winter far far from over. (my season total as of 815P 19.8" heading for 40 or 50 by April 15, I hope.).

Nice band I95... that should nail you along the coast as a transition snow acc on grass but very little streets of NYC I think you might snow even to 1 or 2 am in NYC. Dont give up... hrrr is all you have and we have to make the best of it. It's better than what we had 3 years ago...much better! Thank the modelers worldwide and researchers throughout the world education systems. They allow great confidence in projections, provided you look out there window for initial ground truth.

I've no answer except possibly subsidence on the back side of the FGEN banding near the CF. I think from what I can tell its trying to develop as modeled. We'll know more soon.

Wantage NJ 8 s of High Point. 725 PM 3.7". 27.7F NYC and LI should pick up 1/4-1" of snow 10P-2A time frame, from what I can tell from the hrrr.

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point in far nw NJ 3.0 at 625PM. 28.0F steady 3/4s-. Beautiful stuff for us.

Wantage NJ 8 S High Point. Only 740'MSL 1.8" at 5P. Temp up to 27.7F. solid 3/4 mi vsby snow.

Wantage NJ 4 sw 1.4" storm total 4P. 26.6F definitely dendrites now and consistently 3/4-1MI vsby past hr. Side roads that were salted this morning are snow covered. Plowing has started. hill roads light to mdt traffic are snow covered. (Main roads like 565 and SR23 at 3P were wet).

Wantage NJ 4 sw 740'MSL 8 mi s High Point. 1.0" at 245P. 26.2F and light snow pellets/light dendrites mixed.

Sussex downtown on SR 23. 0.6” and s- continues. 28f. Walt

0.1. WANTAGE no. 1.5mi s-

SB ...very fine flakes began 803A. now a 5 for 6mi s-. Wantage NJ 4 sw. 19F. 815A

Good Tuesday morning, No change to the initial post yesterday. If anything snow begins very soon (prior to 9 or 10A with an inch or two here in nw NJ/ne PA by 2P). I probably wont be able to report between 845A and 215P but have at it, as the snow measurements dictate. Thanks. 646A/29

Hi! I played the basic strength of the models-frozen ground etc...wasnt super aware of 1000 e of the river but knew it was up there having driven I84 many many times BOS to NJ. Fingers crossed and hope you can grab 4" Tuesday afternoon-evening. Appreciate your comments as do others. Thanks. Walt

Good Monday morning, Hopefully this thread will be useful for the cold frontal passage (wave) snowfall expected Tuesday and Tues night. Most of the snow accumulation should occur 5PM-Midnight when strongest vertical velocity occurs in a snow sounding. I dropped the remainder at 815A. Keeping it simple. Thanks for all the obs already.

I think I want to wait out the -NAO thought written above and you're welcome to ping me April 1, if it indeed never really went persistently negative in Feb/Mar with below normal snow NYC. Your observation regarding early season snow is valid and I like it. But I also like analytics and it's only going to improve. I'm definitely not giving up on the next 7 weeks. Regarding the next two weeks...They were skating on Culvers Lake here in nw NJ yesterday---large lake on 206 near the Appalachian Trail. Should add at least 6" ice thickness by Friday 8AM. Piles of snow/ice left in Wantage but overall we have to call it a Trace (for now). I haven't changed any of my thinking from yesterdays post for the entire period discussed. I'm thinking temps within 2F of that which was written yesterday which was heavily based on EC 2M temps and abnormally cold 850 temps of -25C. This is impressive...for Chicago I think they need to be talking coldest since 1985... not 1994. Just my take...EC continues 2m low near near -26F. Lets see what the models deliver the next several days... noting some are trending colder tracks than yesterdays modeling for the Feb events, meaning chance of Ice near i80 instead of all rain in Feb 3 and beyond rain storms.