wdrag

More current max wind updates. LGA recently 38 kt. Added NYS mesonet, NJ CLI net and LSR reports into NNJ. Probably my last report of this evening unless wind wakes me. 802P/1

I did not expect these reports in e PA late this Sunday afternoon, generally prior to 6P, and may have been associated just after the passage of the line of heavy showers. Here's a view of Local Storm Reports and max gusts NYS mesonet. NJ Max gusts not yet available. 711P/1

Per this afternoons NWS issuance of a wind advisory for Monday, have split the difference in the timing to keep it simple for our AMWX NYC forum. Confidence is somewhat less than yesterday to see more than isolated 46MPH advisory criteria reports and associated power outages from downed tree limbs, aided by many trees still partially leaved. Appears best chance for downward transfer of 45-max 60 MPH gusts is 6A-Noon, especially ne PA and I84 ridges through se NYS and CT in CAA with a gradual decrease in wind probable during mid and late afternoon. E tip of LI may also be more prone to gusts past 46MPH aided by the warm surrounding SST's. Positives are the Richardson # briefly "nearly" solid 0.25 (red) to 825MB and the associated steepest lapse rate with a decent nw flow gradient between deepening near 980MB low pressure in the Maritimes and 1035MB high pressure to our southwest. in the lower Mississippi Valley. Negatives: My experience that the FOUS displayed synoptic scale BL wind needs to equal or exceed 27kt on the coastal plain (LGA so far is modeled to be hovering with a max of BL wind of ~25-26kt), and a lack of strong pressure rises-subsidence-rapidly rising sfc based LI. Even the Richardson # is starting to show breaks. 12z/1 SPC HREF, 12z HRRRX, 18z HRRR and and 12z EC gusts seem predominately below 46 MPH, except the ridges. Added graphics to this topic a couple of 3KM NAM 18z/1 LGA time section graphics for Monday (Richardson #, Temperature and wind and RH tsections)... and a 3K NAM 18z/1 modeled sounding focused on 16z.

I didn't have the heart to start a wind topic for tomorrow. Just doesn't look quite strong enough to me, but I could be wrong. IF OKX/PHI start a wind advisory in our area, I'd add a topic but am not quite as keen on this being scattered 45+MPH except ridges and maybe the eastern tip of LI. Not much has changed in the modeling as far as I can tell from the 00z-06z/1 cycle. If power outages, then I would expect those to be mostly in the forested higher terrain, mainly between 7AM and 2 PM.

I like the idea of a few flurries around Monday morning - whether NYC CP ASOS sees--doubtful. Measurable on some of the I84 high terrain likely. mPing. Wind gusts Monday more commonly 35-40 MPH with isolated 50 MPH and a few associated power outages. Not quite convened we'll grab up to 825MB at 15z-16z Monday to transfer 45-50kt... so have not started a topic. Richardson # and timing of cold core passage at that time look favorable but NAM3k sounding looks like it's not quite as steep above 9000MB and so am hesitant to topic what might not be much of a damage event. Maybe guidance will change my mind late today... or if OKX issues a wind advisory, then I'll topic. For now, I think the best chance of damaging wind Monday morning is to the west and north of NYC. fwiw... late this afternoon, there might be an isolated gust 45 MPH e LI in showers. I did see the secondary line crossing the interior late today but not much wind flagged there...at least not yet. Maybe some hail? At 7A EST, have added this mean gust graphic in MPH from the SPC HREF. Not as impressive as I'd like to see. This is for 15z Monday (10AM).

FWIW: mixing forced turnover is currently modeled up to 850 MB Monday... Not commenting on anything for a topic til tonight.

A question: IFFFF ASOS sees a snowflake in CP Monday or Tuesday morning, will that qualify for shortest period? ?? AM tied up with lots of at home stuff so no starter post yet, but thinking of a damaging wind-power outage 50MPH wind gust post for the forum 15z-22z Monday. Just need more time. Am pretty sure we'll see some of this Monday (75% certainty on my part-hasty checks are my uncertainty). I do think scattered coatings of snow for parts of the higher I84 terrain Monday and possibly Tuesday morning with scattered snow showers. That too at least 75% certainty.

Good info impressions shared by all on Zeta. Kudos to Moderately Unstable for the observations stated in paragraph 1 of the Tuesday evening (p4) post. I didn't look at any Zeta posts midday Wednesday onward as the cat was out of the bag ,so to speak. Have attached this mornings remnant per outages... rather large 3-4 days after traversing the southeast USA. I also admit the ICON October 23 early missed assessment of cyclone phase in the central Gulf. A cycle or two later, all that was remedied by the multiple models while still hanging out toward the Yucatan.

Snowfall map attached for the event...should be pretty close. Some low temp maps from NJ and NYS this morning. Also two day water equivalent for our area. Max wind gust per spartan mesonet on LI was 40 and not shown. Minor coastal flooding occurred (possibly almost moderate in a few spots). My assessment is the NAM modeling for CAA changing rain to snow (and sleet southern edge) was the best. It also via previously forum advance posted temperature TSection had the 32F in NYC (big bust for GFS MOS). Overall EC was pretty consistent from the longer range on snowfall and NYC low temp and associated suburbs hard freeze. The GFS-P had a rather early but a bit too robust snow and storm signal for Friday morning. My tiny sample guess is the para will help improve the current GFS here in our area. Finally the Zeta 3-4 days later remnant power outages in the se USA, as of mid Saturday morning.

Max snowfalls in se NYS, ne PA and nw NJ were elevation dependent. Tomorrow I'll try and post a wrap up snowfall analysis. My guesstimate is, if you were above ~ 1000 feet elevation you had 1+" (n of I80). There is a massive LSR post... I'll show the locations of all the snow reports in our area... the more widespread 1-6" reports were N of I84 in w Ct, NYS. ...SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...New Jersey... ...Morris County... Jefferson Twp 0.8 in 1120 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Sussex County... 4 NNE Frankford Twp 2.5 in 1226 PM 10/30 Public 1 ENE Sparta 2.5 in 1145 AM 10/30 Public High Point 2.4 in 1005 AM 10/30 Public Sparta 0.6 in 0940 AM 10/30 Public Lafayette Twp 0.5 in 1130 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter 4 SW Wantage 0.3 in 0930 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Warren County... 1 NE Allamuchy-Panther Valle 0.2 in 1059 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Pennsylvania... ...Carbon County... 2 SSE Penn Forest Reservoir 0.6 in 1109 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Monroe County... Mount Pocono 0.9 in 1025 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter Long Pond 0.3 in 0952 AM 10/30 Public && LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...Fairfield County... New Fairfield 2.0 130 PM 10/30 Trained Spotter Shelton 0.6 1100 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter Bridgeport T 100 PM 10/30 Co-Op Observer ...New Haven County... Hamden 0.7 130 PM 10/30 Trained Spotter 3 NNW Wallingford Ce 0.1 700 AM 10/30 CoCoRaHS Guilford T 257 PM 10/30 Co-Op Observer NEW JERSEY ...Passaic County... 1 SE Newfoundland T 800 AM 10/30 Charlotteburg COOP NEW YORK ...Orange County... Monroe 1.5 1145 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Suffolk County... Stony Brook T 1219 PM 10/30 NWS Employee Mount Sinai T 1230 PM 10/30 Co-Op Observer Upton T 200 PM 10/30 NWS Office ...Westchester County... Katonah 0.2 900 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter

No. The low there in CP prior to 4P was 38 at 1031AM. CP is tough... snowed and sleeted around parts of the 5 boroughs.

Good morning again, Wantage NJ at this elevation of 740'MSL went back too mostly rain around 930A. I noticed 2.4" at High Point NJ and have added a few LSR mapped reports. Mostly 1-3" NYS, and generally 1/2" ne PA and nw NJ, so far. Looks like NYC may escape recording snow today? I've also been in touch with mets at NCEP and they tend to agree: GFSv16 (parallel) evaluation that its overall synoptic performance in the medium range is superior to v15, and part of that improvement is due to being somewhat less progressive. Also they are aware of the NAM's generally superior performance on CAA rain to snow transition. This may be my last post for this event (final at this location in Wantage NJ 0.03"), until tonight or tomorrows wrap. Even if the prelim outlook by both our forum long rangers and NWS is for a generally mild winter supporting below normal snowfall, we can hope for an Atypical winter, expanding the higher than normal snowfall portion of the sample size. Have a good one.

Thanks to all for all your observation updates... This part of Wantage NJ 0.3" continues to snow but smaller flakes. Roads wet.

Wantage NJ as of 815A... 0.1" First measurable snow last year was Nov 12.

Excellent detail on elevated view

I checked CoCoRAHS snowfall and so far nothing exceeding the previous LSR post from ALY. I've added Two day rainfall (so far)-. Gives an idea of the beneficial rainfall. Definitely accumulating ne PA and I suspect now in extreme nw Sussex County NJ. All snow here in the part of Wantage but no big deal, except it's first and early. Noted the near 4 to near 5" of rain so far just s of Ocean County NJ.

EARLY snow reports to ALB... attached basically 1-3"

mPing has you see rain-snow mix near Hackensack NJ just behind the transition of the radar bright band (seeing greater reflectivity because of very wet snowflakes aloft). I have to say this... NAM by far the best on showing the change this far south. Any disagreement please post here. In the long range leading up to this... I think there GFS-PARA had the right idea tho too robust. My point on this... the GFS para i think has a chance to be helpful since I suspect it handles the BL temp better.

You see Amsterdam NY...similar at Cobb MTN on I84 exit 8 at 2000 ft... with roads becoming slush covered.

Interesting Monday Nov 2: Lots of wind... scattered gusts within 5 MPH of 50? Also scattered snow showers Monday night into early Tuesday with slight chance of a skiff of snow cover for a couple of spots of the I84 corridor high terrain? Big trough aloft digging into the northeast Monday, departing Tuesday.

mPING reports showing snow down into northern Sussex County NJ, including our home here in Wantage (heavier bands of qpf). First trace last year was Nov 8.

Good morning NYC forum... Rapid changes occurring now in in the northern parts of our area as colder boundary layer air is drawn southwest. I have little change from prior posts. nw NJ/ne PA Trace-1.5" with valleys basically nil accumulation. se NYS a bit more: Trace-2" with least in the valleys. CT will do pretty good. NYC...might see a brief mix of wet snow/rain around 10A-11A but if ASOS calls it UP...then I don't know if the city can get a trace. My only gut feeling on all of this is that the NAM is still a touch too far south with the cold. Attached the 06z/30 HRRX variable density snowfall. Whether it occurs like this, I cant be absolutely sure. First snow of our NYC forum cool season. Please follow all local NWS statements on flooding/snowfall/freeze. I may update once or twice today.

More guidance: For those N of the city... again...wet snow so I'd cut the amounts in half for POU... around 1" The city SREF plume is now down to where I think it should be, nil or 0.1-0.2. Probably melt on contact if it does mix with or change in the city. The banding on the 12z/29 cycle has shifted a little east... so not quite as good a signal but still some action, especially N of I80. I've added a graphic pic for 12z/30... from the 12z/29 SPC HREF... it too can be slightly cold but gives an idea.

Hi, I've added the 12z/29 NAM thermal profile at LGA... please remember... this is model. Timing could be wrong or too exuberant on profile cooling or very little precipitation left after any changeover in the city. I'll revisit banding in 20 minutes.

Good Thursday morning again, especially those who want to see some wet snow in the 5 boroughs; - aka NYC. I'll start with--- I hope the NAM is not misleading me and ends up slightly too cold. It definitely snows with accumulations in the not too distant nw-nne suburbs... Whether the CP ASOS records wet snow, or just UP, I think the city will see at a minimum, a period of a mix of rain and wet snow developing around 10-11AM and then trending to all light rain Noon-2P, then ending. IF ASOS doesn't see it, it may not be recorded as an official T. 12z/29 NAM is reconfirming it's recent colder than all models solutions and so while it could still be a NAM slightly too cold scenario, I am leaning NAM, especially since it's closing in on prior GFS-P indicators of 5-6 days ago (I think a fault of the current GFS is that it doesn't handle the BL temps very well in marginal thermal profiles- I think I demonstrated this a couple of time last winter-in advance of a situation in CHI and elsewhere). So, what i expect after primary ZETA has departed and diminished to light rain-drizzle around midnight, is one or two developing moderate to heavy bands within the general cyclonic flow - approaching 500MB flow generated rain/drizzle. Those should develop over NNJ-se NYS and possibly extreme ne PA around 7-9AM and that will be a transition to a colder BL profile and what I think is gloppy wet snowflakes mixed with rain in NYC ~10-11A and a 7 to 1 or something like snow ratio in the nw suburbs of NYC, including nw NJ/se NYS and CT. I've added some 06z NAM time sections and I think you can see where the marginal temps are around 8AM at LGA, then it cools enough at 10-11 AM for a better chance of snow making it down to the ground...not sticking in NYC except maybe roofs/cars--depending on location. One thing tends to always happen...if it snows for an hour or so, the sfc temp drops to 33-34, no matter the northerly surface wind. I've also added a modeled banding signature (black band in NJ) that suggests what I'm talking about and seeing in model data. The snow growth will be briefly decent near 8am Friday in these band's but our temperature profile in NYC at 8AM may still be too warm to see wet snow at that time.