wdrag

Good Friday morning everyone, No topic for me on todays rainfall... helpful for sure. Am expecting basically 1/2 to 2" depending on repeat episodes of showers. Note impossible to see 2.5" but to me this is relatively normal. I am paying attention to the pattern around October 25-27. Zeta (my expectation only-if the earlier near Bermuda system ~10/20-22 doesn't get named Epsilon, then I suspect the FL system around 24th-25th would be Epsilon). We'll see if the 500 MB pattern adjusts to a sharper trough near 80-85W longitude as the EPS is starting to show recently. If not, then no problem. NAEFS shows something along the se USA coast then peeling out to sea northeastward. VERY VERY early (9 days) but based on multi op models and multiple ensembles, am glad am not cruising Bermuda to Key West...I think its going to be a little on the rough side as opposed to typical daily tropical. Again, only what I'm looking for. It still may not pan out. 654A/16

8PM NHC post tonight... 00z/15 issuance. All very low probs so I'll defer to the eventual reality... something potentially to look at between the 19th-27th.

My final on this event: Here is CoCORAHS sampling (entire event). Not sure if anyone saw how much rain fell in Hartford County yesterday (Southington etc). I know Hartford is out of our area...but over 4.5" up there and so our area only has a documented max of around 4". Graphics are appended for verification purposes.

Good Wednesday morning... It's now 4 days since the GEFS was signaling two new TC's in the 17th-26. CAVEAT: I'm NOT-NOT A TROPICAL EXPERT. All i do is read the models-ensembles-trends, realize pattern recognition generally adds value and then use all the experts surrounding us (Including here and other forums) and go from there. I also try to account for the possibility of modeling expectations to fail---i.e. NO storms. That said... Whether a TC-hybrid comes up the E coast ???? timing timing timing with the primary trough reforming eastern USA next 2 weeks. What I'm 80-90% confident of is one, probably two Tropical Cyclones in the week of the 19th-26th in the tropical Atlantic (Epsilon, and Zeta). This was first developing as an option on the GEFS ~ Oct 10th 00z-06z cycle. The GGEM is now grabbing onto the first s of Bermuda around the 20th. The EC has something too, and in the operational cycle brings it nw to the se USA coast by the 24th. However the 00z/14 EC ensembles progress west and then have a difficult time figuring out two storms (one heading west toward FL, the other moving north from s of CUBA). The GEFS continues strong on the second storm and tracking uncertain. SST continue above normal near the FL coast (below normal near Bermuda and w GMEX due to prior storms upwelling). 00z/14 NAEFS has some idea but undefined right now... My "guess" is in a day or two, NHC TWO will latch onto the first disturbance heading w toward the region s of Bermuda- the latter TC disturbance may not be defined for another 5 days---? Experts should comment here on MJO favorability for the tropical 19th-26th?? (I'm also not an expert on the MJO impacts) I've submitted this for critique on the tropical forum looking for some contrary expertise. My take for my own use: If I had a choice--I'm not taking a cruise between Bermuda and Key West between the 19th-26th. I don't need to deal with the pitch and roll of a rough sea. (Did that on FAMFLOAT with the NWS back in the early 90s and it wasn't a TC--just a winter storm). 1115A/14

CAVEAT: I'm NOT-NOT A TROPICAL EXPERT. All i do is read the models-ensembles-trends, realize pattern recognition generally adds value and then use all the experts surrounding us(Including here and other forums) and go from there. I also try to account for the possibility of modeling expectations to fail---i.e. NO storms. That said... Whether it comes up the E coast ???? timing timing timing with the primary trough reforming eastern USA next 2 weeks. What I'm 80-90% confident of is one, probably two Tropical Cyclones in the week of the 19th-26th in the tropical Atlantic (Epsilon, and Zeta). This was first developing as an option on the GEFS ~ Oct 10th 00z-06z cycle. The GGEM is now grabbing onto the first s of Bermuda around the 20th. The EC has something too, and in the operational cycle rings it nw to the se USA coast by the 24th. However the 00z/14 EC ensembles progress west and then have a difficult time figuring out two storms (one heading west toward FL, the other moving north from s of CUBA). The GEFS continues strong on the second storm and tracking uncertain. SST continue above normal near the FL coast (below normal near Bermuda and w GMEX due to prior storms upwelling). 00z/14 NAEFS has some idea but undefined right now... My "guess" is in a day or two, NHC TWO will latch onto the first disturbance heading w toward the region s of Bermuda- the latter TC disturbance may not be defined for another 5 days---? Experts should comment here on MJO favorability for the tropical 19th-26th?? I will submit this for critique on the tropical forum and there could be some contrary expertise--- so this is my impression of expectations. My take for my own use: IF this applied and I had a choice--I'm not taking a cruise between Bermuda and Key West between the 19th-26th. 1107A/14

curious as to your final event amount late today-, thanks!

Wantage NJ at 2P..drizzle slowly ending. Total today 0.60, entire event total 1.07. Central Park event total 1.29" through 18z/13. Maps posted... two radar sensor combined analysis. The MARFC version looks more accurate, bit it too is running a little shy. The southern region radar analysis (second radar image) is definitely too low in coastal NJ. Also added NY MESONET totals as of 1PM, and then CoCoRAHS 2 day total through ~8A today. Tomorrow I'll add the 3 day CoCORAHS update. Bottom line many 3-4" reports Monmouth-Ocean Counties in NJ...solid 1-2" LI and most of NJ, 1/2-1" CT/se NYS except maybe extreme northwest edge of the forum a little less. Will add some probable final comments to this art about 215PM. Look back: this didn't work out too bad. We didn't bite quite as hard on 3-4.5" focusing south. Onset was delayed slightly (4 hours from projected), winds and temps were good. Updated wind concerns for early Tuesday were overdone.

Wantage...still quite rainy... 0.99 total now with more today, than yesterday... so far 0.52 today. Frankford Township just 7 miles away 1.69" Rain ended there. RGEM best model for the very short term... GFS/HRRR/ICON have been poor performers on the trailer across NJ se NYS.

Wantage now at 0.68" Still increasing. Minor but modeling was pretty good... overall.

Very well ---- advance analyzed. This helps us all..Thanks

Looking ahead here: Potential wind/rain event Fri or Sat?, then next Tue or Wed (20-21), and finally a tropical system of interest near FL around the 24th-27th.

Good Tuesday morning all, CP 1.12", i think for a storm total through 6A, Wantage NJ 0.62 More coming through midday except it probably quits NJ shore around 8-10A. Ends this afternoon from W-E per what I think are the best performers early today RGEM/GGEM and ECMWF op runs from 00z/13. First graphic is general expectation from 8A-4P... except probably nil after 8A s of I-195 in NJ, maybe almost nil at I78, again after 8A. I've added on some mapped sampler amounts since about midnight. (Am pretty sure we exceeded 3" Storm TOTAL parts of the NJ coast.) First 6 hourly is the NJ CLI sites, then NYS Mesonet, then a broad WU. Bottom line...nice rains early today with largest .5 to 75" amounts NJ coast-e LI. May not be posting much 8A-1P. Have good day.

My last til the morning. CP 0.91 as of midnight. Wantage NJ 0.47 Several wrap up graphics added for todays 24 hour calendar day rainfall. NJ CLI rainfall leads, followed by several graphics from WU... a few data points suspect but while far E LI very little so far...less than 0.1"; the rest of Long Island an easy 0.75 to 1.75" today, se NYS as presented (less than 1" except near HPN. CT should be coming up now. NJ shows a number of 2+ along the coast from near New Brunswick down to ACY. Radar shows the bands of enhanced rainfall moving northward pretty quick. Should be more interesting toward dawn when we wake up to a new day.

I think radar is looking better for heavier rains to the coast overnight per radar return and northwest drift. Two official NJ CLI sites in our area over 2" per attached along the NJ Coast. Also official NYS mesonet. This as of about 929P. NJ coast has 10 more hours. LI another 12-14 hours.

CP up to .82 as periods of rain-drizzle continue spreading north. Appears some intensification beginning on the se inflow along the De Coast. We'll see if this translates north.

Adding WxUnderground... some of the data looks inaccurate... but I'm not surprised at many amounts 1.2-2.2" LI and NJ coast.You'll know better than I how the data looks compared to your own sensors. 5P

Snapshot rainfall today only in NJ...several reports 1.45-1.75" NJ coast and one I see near 1.9". It goes up from there from now on. Solid helpful event NJ/LI and I would think eventually NYS/CT.

Modeling/southeast flow at 850 with cyclonic flow in the boundary layer with combined overrunning WAA near 900MB easterly to southeasterly flow of nearly saturated 100 % moisture through 700MB suggests to me that drizzle will overspread from the south, becoming steady light rain at times sometime later this evening (like in NYC now) and if we get a little IR cirrus seeding later Tuesday morning from the next short wave, we could see even brief moderate showers up in the interior of se NYS. I'd think this would be a nice situation in winter of cyclonic flow precip. I like the pattern... not ideal for HUGE amounts but PWAT near 1.5" can yield pretty good. Amounts continue climbing NJ coast into LI late this afternoon with CP at 0.65 as of 415PM. Give it some time but later this evening we should notice a bit more noticeable returns o\n radar developing northward. IF NOT...then I'm wayyy overdone in using there model guidance. I'll close with this... I expect Wantage to increase from it's current 0.46" to somewhere near .75 by the time 15z rolls around Tuesday... and CP to be over 1.15" by that time. For se NYS my guess is at least 0.25 for a start, bit heavier down toward HPN. Thats not a lot but also this closing in on original expectations. NJ coast Monmouth-Ocean should be near 3" by 15z Tuesday... LI... I'd add on .5 to 1.5" and gusty easterly flow there during there night-early Tuesday. Added some NAM graphics..hopefully of value...all for POU. You can see the RH, winds and the thermal advection near 925MB.

I think through 18z CP 0.58 event total.

tonight .....and.... tomorrow. Cyclonic flow...a bit of an inverted trough forming vicinity NYC and while DELTA upper air support passes by the Delmarva now, the next midwest short wave seems to capture the remaining low and draw it northeastward tonight and Tuesday. If this was a winter storm, excitement would abound (presuming it was snow). So I think we have quite bit of development tonight into tomorrow morning, especially I95 eastward then it fades away in the afternoon... this second shot i did not think could happen this much when the topic was started.

Will post images as time permits. 1PM numbers. 1/2-1" expected between 8PM tonight and 2PM tomorrow coastal NJ, NYC with 1-11.5" on the Island into CT. interior NYS and nw NJ 1/4-1/2" after 8P tonight. Wantage at 0.45" as of 1P. Graphics: First 3 are today only. Wx underground mesonet samplers: Please discard the 1.91 near Massapeaqua... you see some near 1.5" amts LI and TTN-Monmouth-Ocean Counties. NJ CLI site Have latched onto NYS Mesonet site.

Will post images as time permits. Have latched onto NYS Mesonet site... This as of 8AM today.

Long ways to go... and to me it looks nasty at times for LI/NJ coast into Tuesday morning. Think the topic with it's 628AM Sunday commented adjustments is valid. It took a while for the measurable rain to make it to I80 north (midnightish). My only significant adjustment is that it's apparent that the heavier bands occurring this morning may ease to drizzle for a time this afternoon with renewed bands of heavier showers/rain redeveloping northward late today and especially overnight-early Tuesday. The strongest east wind for this entire system may not occur til around 2AM-7AM Tuesday when gusts 45 or possibly 50 MPH should occur near coastal LI. 2+" of rain not impossible for NYC by the time 2PM Tuesday rolls around, and thinking isolated 4.5" still within the realm of possibility either tiny portion of the NJ coast (Ocean.Monmouth) or possibly LI. So far, over 1" has occurred in a portion of coastal Ocean County NJ, and many locations 1/4-3/4" in NJ. Winds are gusting to ~ 30 MPH much of the NJ coast. OKX radar storm total looks reasonable to me. Follow local NWS statements on tidal flooding at the time of high tide.

Good Sunday morning all, not much change in the overall scenario outlined in the topic starter but from my side, a few adjustment considerations. 1) Rather cold Monday rains with wind chill upper 30s in some high terrain locations Poconos Sussex-Orange Counties into sw CT. 2) There may be a slight southward drift for the main qpf shield since 24 hours ago... to me that raises the possibility of maybe only near 1" Pike, northern Sussex, across Orange Putnam counties with less than 1" Ulster-Dutchess-Litchfield. Unsure of this slightly lower northern fringe qpf. 3) Max rainfall axis in our area continues modeled Ocean, Monmouth, Middlesex in NJ then to the s coast of LI...best chance of 3" with iso 4.5 still possible but imo, only Ocean Monmouth. 4) Gale assured now with max gust probably 40-50 MPH LI, NJ coast Monday. 5) Start time late today may be slightly too fast for NNJ/NYC but some modeling is spotting light showers there 5P-10P. 6) NEW from my review-failed to check yesterday. Minor coastal flooding appears probable now for the Monday afternoon high tide NJ coast... haven't checked LI but follow OKX. I'm an mPING user.

Since it's a big year, am looking ahead with proximity to the USA East coast and GMEX. Epsilon and Zeta appear on the "modeling" horizon in both the GEFS/EPS members between the 17th-26th. The current NHC outlooked 20% chance is not included, though not ruled out. Added only GEFS/EPS member sampling next weekend, with more members showing up in the week thereafter. Eastern GMEX-FL coast still above normal SST. Closed this post with a 10 day outlook for DELTA members (06z/SEP 27).... that tended to be closer to FL for 06z/7, but had a few near the Yucatan. Overall modeling cues seem to be improving, I think.