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Low to moderate confidence for a damaging wind event (scattered pockets). We're about 48 hours away and within a time that we should be looking for a possible significant event. Not a lock for damaging south wind gust 40-60 MPH in squalls, with an isolated SVR thunderstorm associated with a cold frontal passage, or... brief westerly wind gust to 45-50 MPH within 3 hours of the CFP - associated with strong dry air advection and modest pressure rises. The NAM/UK/EC have 65-75 kt winds near 850 MB at about 7PM Sunday over LI. RGEM even stronger. Op GFS is weakest. As we draw closer to Sunday afternoon, intensity of the wind fields and instability-and any squall lines will need reassessments. The upper 50s SST may limit transfer but lapse rates and any squall lines/kinks or breaks in the lines will be important discriminators for a sizable power outage event on LI/CT. Further west... if damage is to occur in NJ/se NYS, I'll look at hill towns first, and then along the immediate NJ coast, and especially IF, the currently modeled wind fields maintain intensity and can begin sooner as per the RGEM, which is the strongest of the models that I've seen from the 12z-18z/13 cycles. So, to avoid a damaging wind gust, NAM/RGEM/ECMWF/UKMET 65kt+ wind gusts need to weaken 10-15 kt, or a triple point low forms just s of LI. Have three 12z/13 RGEM graphics (slower than the NAM) 4P-7P-10P, added a prob for wind gusts 40+ MPH by the weaker 12z/13 GEFS. Added 18z/13 3K NAM turbulence Richardson # overturning graphic for LGA that is solid .25 up about 925 MB which may favor spotty mixing on the southerly flow and more widespread mixing on the slightly weaker westerly flow behind the front. Also added the 3K NAM modeled wind field from the 18z/13 3K NAM---also for LGA. EC has 3 successive cycles of 40+ MPH for LI/CT and past two cycles 50-60 MPH. Uncertainty on 60 MPH but confidence for ~40, scattered 50 MPH is at at least moderate. RGEM timing below is slower than the 3KNAM. By the way...models have the showers moving east at 62kt. 722P/13

Will begin a low to moderate confidence Damaging wind and/or SVR (HSLC) topic by 730PM for Sunday 4P-10P.

Here we present the 12z/13 3K NAM for Sunday, 21z evolving to a quite a line at 23z/15 and 00z/16. If this continues in future cycles and the EC continues to advertise 40-60MPH gusts, will start a damaging wind topic to wrap up this 5 day event. For now, to me, it's a possibility but am a little concerned about buying in yet. (However, utils might like to know this possibility before late today, for contingency planning purposes). At 1155A I added the 12z/13 RGEM... It's a little slower and a little more robust earlier. (21z/15; 00z and 03z/16 added). interesting to see if this is reasonable.

Eta contribution: As we are all aware... Eta had headed northeast from the coastal Carolinas... as they say ... safely out to sea--- EXCEPT for mariners and those on any cruises. However: I've just borrowed from a highly regarded discussion of Eta and the probable PRE (predecessor rainfall event) that occurred in the N Carolina yesterday. The paragraph is not mine... but I think confirms... that Eta moisture or nearly circulation moisture did reach our area Wednesday-early Thursday. Maps of 700-hPa heights, temperatures, winds, and IVT show a direct moisture transport connect from TS Eta all the way to New England at 0000 UTC 12 Nov (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime/standard.php?domain=conus&variable=IVT_conv. The maps suggest that this moisture flux convergence existed along and ahead of an advancing cold front in the confluent equatorward entrance region of a strong 80+ m/s upper-level jet centered over northern New England and adjacent Canada.

Good morning again, Numbers slowly adding up in the dreary pattern that has bright sunshine slated for tomorrow and back to dreary Sunday afternoon. CoCoRAHS two days added, plus NYS mesonet for the entire Wed-Fri morning events, and the radar assessment for the entire event(s)so far. My guess is just about everyone will have 1+ inches by 1159PM Sunday, and the isolated 3" in Ocean County will increase in coverage, with a lot of 1.5's now ending up ~2".. Not much change on timing the ending of todays drizzle-rain... maybe delaying the ending time by 30 minutes to an hour from the 6am update.

Good Friday morning everyone, RGEM has been the best model in the past day or so regarding the qpf for the daylight hours yesterday, overnight and today. Am expecting it to perform very well today, and Sunday. Widespread drizzle early this morning grows into showery rains of probably moderate intensity for the I95 corridor eastward across LI-CT later this morning. It ends west of the Hudson River into nw NJ around 1PM, and NYC-coastal NJ around 2-3P and eastern LI CT 3P-5P. Expect another 0.1 to .25" from 7AM onward except less than 0.1" extreme nw NJ into Orange and Ulster counties. Flurries Catskills on Saturday. Otherwise a nice M/S day. Sunday: Am on the fence about a separate damaging wind event topic. For now, keeping it internal to this topic since am not sure how much wind can transfer downward from above 950MB. Suggest - continue following the RGEM for widespread 1/4-1" event...heaviest probably se NYS/CT/LI. Drizzle-rain develops Noon-3PM, then expect a band of moderate to heavy showers with slight chance of embedded thunderstorms racing east between 4P-9P, then dwindles to scattered showers or nothing shortly after the CFP. ECMWF rudimentary wind gust forecast is widespread brief 40-50 MPH with isolated 60 MPH possible, especially CT/LI in the convective band. Make it a good day-614A/13

No changes from the morning update. From now through midnight Sunday night 0.25"-1.5" new rainfall with periods of light to moderate rain this evening, mostly I95 corridor eastward, then widespread rain-showers tomorrow morning-early afternoon for 3-9 hours...longest duration I95 corridor eastward. A 2-5 hour wide band of convection expected between 4P-10P Sunday, may be accompanied by a G 40-50MPH and rain should be briefly moderate to heavy. Prior to 4P Sunday...there could be a little drizzle or light rain in early afternoon. Will rereview Friday morning. Have no plans for a subtopic svr, unless SPC outlooks then I'll break something out. Needs rereview the next couple of mornings. Wantage 0.61" for the entire event. Expect to be close to 1" here by the time this 5 day period completes Sunday night.

Just my last update on CoCoRAHS D1 qpf ending this morning. here will be two day CoCoRAHS totals posting sometime tomorrow morning as well as two day radar totals. Will do ditto Saturday morning and a wrap Monday morning. Sunday may be looking better for decent amounts?? .60 in this part of Wantage Nj now. We're on the low side of all this first rain batch.

Pivatol Weather as delivered the 12z/12 3K NAM: here is the accumulated MODELed qpf from 18z today-18z Friday (24 hr 1P today-1P Friday). Has a chance of being halfway decent. Wantage storm total now .58.

Wantage NJ...rainfall rate now Heavy: 0.35"/hr as of 835A. Now 0.55" since RB around noon yesterday (drizzle prior to that).

Here's some more ground truth. CoCoRAHS data. Looking good for our numbers by the time midnight Sun night rolls around. More coming today, tomorrow... note some pretty decent small showers along ne NJ/PA border at 810A. 12z/12 PW at OKX 1.72". See Bluewave earlier post on late season RER at OKX and numbers RER's s of us.

Modest beneficial rains most of our area since yesterday afternoon, with a radar analysis provided below as of about 10z/12. The legend has the estimates of qpf... biggest PHL to Ocean County NJ, looking like 2.5" plus. Periodic light rains - today, heaviest this morning out on LI/central NJ. Least se NYS and nw NJ. More rain tomorrow during the daylight hours... might only be 1-3 hours in se NYS/nw NJ but possibly moderate for several hours I95 corridor eastward. Dry Saturday (flurries possible Catskills?) Sunday: rain returns late in the day or evening and done by daybreak Monday. The CFP may have iso Thunder. EC gusts now 40-55 MPH with the CFP during Sunday night. Will add the radar numbers and reports here/elsewhere for amounts by Monday morning. Wantage 0.45" so far. Closest overnight thunder was over the Delmarva. Expecting 0.25-1.5" additional rainfall by daybreak Monday.

Here's some PWS's from se NYS s of POU (bunch of 1's so far) and central NJ- near I-195 bunch of 1.4-2". Long ways to go, I think, for NJ-LI... periodic into midday Fri. Noticed the HRRR is lighting up pretty good on LI 2-5A Thursday, after the current batch moves through. My spot in Wantage is on the low end so far 0.43".

Corrected OKX potential near record PWAT date to 12z/12. Got a day ahead of myself. Nevertheless, tonight's 00z/12 OKX 1.88" (may need independent confirmation) 'appears' to me as Bluewave noted: The latest wettest PWAT at OKX for Nov. So far the yield has not been impressive.

Even the 12z/12 sounding might be near record NOV PWAT per the 12z/12 EC op. Letting this all play out... likely that it rains some more Thursday morning and again Friday and late Sun or Sun night. I think some of this could be little fun for LI/central NJ. New EC is trying for some wind with the CFP Sun night.

I agree with this... but I think there excellent mets on here, including long rangers, and for me-that info helps put things in perspective, less hope-more LIMITED science. The most recent post by Bluewave illustrates linking the NAO with snowfall in CP. I like that stuff, and especially seeing how positive the NAO has been in recent Decembers. Doesn't mean it cant snow but odds are not in our favor if the NAO is overall, positive. Timing with the NAO BIG changes sometimes can make better outcomes. No stats but harkening back on SUNY research. The change from positive to significant negative implies digging shortwaves into the ne USA, while going from strong negative to positive implies to me, WAA and snow to probably ice or rain (in winter). The CP normal snowfall for Dec is 4.8. I've heard say and read somewhere herein, above normal in DEC portends a snowier than normal winter (winter probably 30% complete by Jan 1). Note the +NAO DEC of 13 and 17 was above normal in snowfall (if I read the graphs correctly)... but what was the NAO or NAO change ~when the snows occurred. ?? I dont; have time to check this. No matter, Those two winters were above normal...significantly so. (I think 13-14 around 57" and 17-18 around 40') However the background state -Enso and subsequent monthly NAO's probably played a role. I'm a timing guy: all can look bleak, but if you get a break (stratwarm, or MJO), you can get a good week or two of opportunities, provided it's cold enough.

Good Wednesday morning all, Going to let this play out. Looks to me like periods of rain from late today through midday Friday, with tonights event initially slated to be the biggest, but don't be surprised at decent qpf Thu and Fri, especially LI. Sunday's event not as robust looking but time to change the modeling scenario. Still think 3 or 4 events with Sunday-early Monday maybe the least likely. Modeled amounts haven generally trended down, so I may have been wrong to look for general 2-4" iso 6" by Monday morning. WPC's 5 day looks decent but am not going to be surprised if it comes in a little heavier. Subtle convergence changes can result in larger yield. PWAT NYC 1-8-2.0 tonight and still a bit above normal into Friday morning. Still a chance of thunder tonight LI. Least qpf for this entire period probably POU-DXR northward. Heaviest seems slated for near ILG-PHL thru Ocean County to e ELI. May comment further later today?

Good morning, Memory jogger April 5-7 1982... ??? That was a big one from WI to NYC north... 10"NYC Northeast Snowstorms Vol II (kodis-Uccellini)

My guess is that this will be the minimum of the WPC D1-2 combined Tue afternoon QPF forecast (tends to be patterned off the SPC HREF). Looks reasonable, with the heaviest band probably arced newd through s NJ (s of our area) but still a pretty decent event here. Have seen the dry GFS for Sunday. While possible I don't think Sunday will be dry. We'll know more by Thursday night but am thinking the GFS in our area has been a little on the low side through all its forecast cycles for the entire period Wed-Sun night. Hopefully the 12z/10 UK/EC op show decent rains coming Sun-Sun night.

Good Tuesday morning everyone, Overall: little change from yesterdays post. Am thinking the higher of the two options by Monday morning for our NYC forum. Expecting 2-4", isolated 6 with the least in se NYS interior CT. If this fails down, then I think it would be general 1-3". All in all, modeling favors heaviest rainfall NJ, LI. Will not try to detail, since I can't possibly get three or four events correct. I've added this mornings WPC 7 day qpf, which includes just very little after 8AM Monday. It's slightly less than what was posted yesterday but the legend gives the idea. I also added PWAT but not for Thursday evening (which should be briefly 2-2.2" at OKX, but whether the sounding captures a Nov record 2+??? I don't know, since the highest PWAT will probably occur between the standard sounding interval of 00z/12z). The PWAT displayed is for the subtle burst near 12z Friday (associated with a Quebec short wave that cleans us out for 36 hours Friday afternoon to Saturday night). Then I added the PWAT axis for early Sunday. Note the Sunday morning connection to the GOMEX. I think this is remnant ETA. I saw the NHC depiction of ETA Sunday morning. Stay with that for official purposes though my low confidence guess is remnant ETA is swept northeast toward NJ Sunday. I'll be following the 850MB vort for this. Sunday morning qpf could be impressive for 6 hours. Wednesday-Thursday: periods of rain-drizzle, most of it W afternoon-night, but lingering into Thursday. General 1/2-2" with the least in se NYS-CT. Iso 3.5" expected, probably in NJ or LI. This is tropical PWAT but indirectly associated with Eta. Rumbles of thunder expected Wednesday evening for LI/CT/NJ. Friday morning: Less than 1/4" for a few hours of showers. We should see this coming out of the Ohio Valley late Thursday (separate from the departing band in our area). It moves east northeast through our are Friday morning-midday. Sunday: Widespread showers and drizzle. 0.5-1.5" expected with isolated 3". Best chance 3" LI. Could have iso thunder? Monday: The CFP could have isolated thunder in the morning. No details. May not be able to comment further until late today or this evening. Have a good day. 440A/10

So, looking at 12 and 18z/9guidance-ensembles, the trend for the first event is less than 1" n of I80 and heavier e LI and central NJ. but that is not locked... and guidance could easily refocus further north. The second sure event is Sunday into Monday morning. That one while less in PWAT than that of Wed-Thu - (which is tropical related but not directly Eta), might have remnant Eta as I see some of the models are tracking from central GOM into the northeast late this weekend. Long ways to go and the usual amount of uncertainty.

We'll see. Don't like the first batch shifting southward a bit... still time to return north. If the frontal system passes too quick, we lose the bigger amounts. I hope tomorrow morning we have more confidence on 1-3 or 2-4 iso 6. Bottom line, at least two events coming and pretty nicely modeled around the 3rd-4th. In fact, I think modeling for this current warm dry spell has been very well advertised well in advance.

Good Monday morning everyone, Today and maybe tomorrow, are probably good days to put away the patio rugs/furniture for the winter, dig out the bulbs that can't handle winters deep freezes and plan for quite a bit of rain Wed-early Monday, followed by brisk weather next week. Two graphics are appended this morning. WPC 7 day qpf... Looks pretty reasonable to me. and, a small chance potentially excessive rainfall Wednesday evening. My thoughts: GFS op is not probably not onto the evolution very well, but it's a consideration that Wednesday-Thursday might be a less than the EC, GGEM-RGEM-ICON. Even UKmet is not quite as bullish as I'd like to see. So that said... am going to going to continue the 1-3" theme for Wed-Thu w maybe a rumble of thunder and a pretty good chance of PWAT lingering near a November record of 2" for 18 hours late Wed-midday Thu. A decent fairly persistent sw 850 MB jet aids convergence-lift of the moisture-structured by the strong WAR which forces quite a bit of low level convergence along the E Coast. Another factor--diffleent 1000-500MB thickness suggesting quite a bit of divergence aloft. Friday: some modeling tries to lift Eta remnant or otherwise an ET low, northeastward from NC. I think the latter option for sure, per EC ensembled 850 MB flow and therefore I think we'll have some mid level qpf for a time Friday..less than 1/4" mostly NJ-LI-coastal CT. This is not certain but possible. Saturday: probably dry and cool. Sunday-Monday morning: The final part of this 5 day rain risk period. Models are converging on a triple pt low developing in the LFQuad of GEFS-EPS 500 MB jet heading into PA-NJ. This is associated with a short wave that had departed the southern Rockies. Thunder may or may not occur. PWAT will not be 2", but yet Eta remnant moisture may still be involved since Eta might get lost in northern GOM late this week (for me an unknown). Still worthy to track Eta's 850MB vort. We're certainly going to have another burst of above normal PWAT. I foresee a pretty east-west oriented thickness barrier across our area providing opportunity lift and wring out quite a bit of qpf here. Drizzle-periods of moderate rain etc. Will go with WPC D7 of 1/2-1" right now but I could see heavier. So... my guess is widespread 2-4" this 5 day period in the NYC forum. Isolated 6" possible. Where it's heaviest still unknown. I'd like to see the GFS/UK beef up the qpf in the future cycles... since it's still possible 5 day totals are only 1-3". Snow: I've seen couple of models try to offer a touch of wet snow to NYS-CT either Saturday or Sunday. I don't want to explore that possibility now---too far in advance with marginal thermal profiles, but not impossible for the northern fringe of the NYC forum...north of I84.

Good Sunday morning everyone, All seems on track... models are converging... 1-3" burst for much of four NYC forum Wed-Thu, a touch under 1/4" Fri morning, then a warm frontal generated rain Sunday, culminated by a decent cold frontal burst Monday morning. If I add this all up in a broad sense... it seems to me a general 2-4" by Noon Monday (yes the back end of this 5 day thread is seeming to need to be extended 12-18 hours). I can see isolated 6" amounts, depending on where the axis of rains overlap. Models also converging on agreement that the Sunday-Monday short wave will be pretty decent for us. PWATs briefly 1.8-2" Wednesday night (near record for Nov as noted by Bluewave), and back up to a brief 1.5-1.7" Sunday and/or Monday morning. Wind: EC second consecutive cycle of 35 MPH or greater for the eastern parts of the area with the cold front... and now flagging a broader 35-50MPH burst with the CFP Monday morning the 16th, mainly I95 corridor eastward. If the short wave continues as modeled by the EC-EPS--then this will probably happen. Thunder: small chance of rumbles Wednesday night. Better chance of thunderstorms with the CFP Monday morning. Dynamics: upper level RRQ of a jet over se Canada-Maritimes Wed-Thu, even Fri AM; then a combined RRQ of jet south of Nova Scotia later Sunday with the LFQ of the approaching short wave barreling into PA-NJ. Please see WPC for the first part of the QPF outlook (1.5"+) and then Monday morning we should be able to post their most of their event(s) total. At that time, I may add some more supporting graphics. 613/8 at 618A..I added there prob of wind gust more than 40MPH from the GEFS. Thought you might like to see this. It's low chance but interesting this far in advance.

No additional info at this time. GFS continues comparatively weak to the EPS after Thursday... Tomorrow morning should show some trend one way or the other. WPC toned down it's expected qpf D4-7 at 18z. NAEFS is pretty bullish on widespread 1-3" qpf Wed-Thu. More tomorrow... have a good night all.