wdrag

Max snowfalls in se NYS, ne PA and nw NJ were elevation dependent. Tomorrow I'll try and post a wrap up snowfall analysis. My guesstimate is, if you were above ~ 1000 feet elevation you had 1+" (n of I80). There is a massive LSR post... I'll show the locations of all the snow reports in our area... the more widespread 1-6" reports were N of I84 in w Ct, NYS. ...SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...New Jersey... ...Morris County... Jefferson Twp 0.8 in 1120 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Sussex County... 4 NNE Frankford Twp 2.5 in 1226 PM 10/30 Public 1 ENE Sparta 2.5 in 1145 AM 10/30 Public High Point 2.4 in 1005 AM 10/30 Public Sparta 0.6 in 0940 AM 10/30 Public Lafayette Twp 0.5 in 1130 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter 4 SW Wantage 0.3 in 0930 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Warren County... 1 NE Allamuchy-Panther Valle 0.2 in 1059 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Pennsylvania... ...Carbon County... 2 SSE Penn Forest Reservoir 0.6 in 1109 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Monroe County... Mount Pocono 0.9 in 1025 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter Long Pond 0.3 in 0952 AM 10/30 Public && LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...Fairfield County... New Fairfield 2.0 130 PM 10/30 Trained Spotter Shelton 0.6 1100 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter Bridgeport T 100 PM 10/30 Co-Op Observer ...New Haven County... Hamden 0.7 130 PM 10/30 Trained Spotter 3 NNW Wallingford Ce 0.1 700 AM 10/30 CoCoRaHS Guilford T 257 PM 10/30 Co-Op Observer NEW JERSEY ...Passaic County... 1 SE Newfoundland T 800 AM 10/30 Charlotteburg COOP NEW YORK ...Orange County... Monroe 1.5 1145 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Suffolk County... Stony Brook T 1219 PM 10/30 NWS Employee Mount Sinai T 1230 PM 10/30 Co-Op Observer Upton T 200 PM 10/30 NWS Office ...Westchester County... Katonah 0.2 900 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter

No. The low there in CP prior to 4P was 38 at 1031AM. CP is tough... snowed and sleeted around parts of the 5 boroughs.

Good morning again, Wantage NJ at this elevation of 740'MSL went back too mostly rain around 930A. I noticed 2.4" at High Point NJ and have added a few LSR mapped reports. Mostly 1-3" NYS, and generally 1/2" ne PA and nw NJ, so far. Looks like NYC may escape recording snow today? I've also been in touch with mets at NCEP and they tend to agree: GFSv16 (parallel) evaluation that its overall synoptic performance in the medium range is superior to v15, and part of that improvement is due to being somewhat less progressive. Also they are aware of the NAM's generally superior performance on CAA rain to snow transition. This may be my last post for this event (final at this location in Wantage NJ 0.03"), until tonight or tomorrows wrap. Even if the prelim outlook by both our forum long rangers and NWS is for a generally mild winter supporting below normal snowfall, we can hope for an Atypical winter, expanding the higher than normal snowfall portion of the sample size. Have a good one.

Thanks to all for all your observation updates... This part of Wantage NJ 0.3" continues to snow but smaller flakes. Roads wet.

Wantage NJ as of 815A... 0.1" First measurable snow last year was Nov 12.

Excellent detail on elevated view

I checked CoCoRAHS snowfall and so far nothing exceeding the previous LSR post from ALY. I've added Two day rainfall (so far)-. Gives an idea of the beneficial rainfall. Definitely accumulating ne PA and I suspect now in extreme nw Sussex County NJ. All snow here in the part of Wantage but no big deal, except it's first and early. Noted the near 4 to near 5" of rain so far just s of Ocean County NJ.

EARLY snow reports to ALB... attached basically 1-3"

mPing has you see rain-snow mix near Hackensack NJ just behind the transition of the radar bright band (seeing greater reflectivity because of very wet snowflakes aloft). I have to say this... NAM by far the best on showing the change this far south. Any disagreement please post here. In the long range leading up to this... I think there GFS-PARA had the right idea tho too robust. My point on this... the GFS para i think has a chance to be helpful since I suspect it handles the BL temp better.

You see Amsterdam NY...similar at Cobb MTN on I84 exit 8 at 2000 ft... with roads becoming slush covered.

Interesting Monday Nov 2: Lots of wind... scattered gusts within 5 MPH of 50? Also scattered snow showers Monday night into early Tuesday with slight chance of a skiff of snow cover for a couple of spots of the I84 corridor high terrain? Big trough aloft digging into the northeast Monday, departing Tuesday.

mPING reports showing snow down into northern Sussex County NJ, including our home here in Wantage (heavier bands of qpf). First trace last year was Nov 8.

Good morning NYC forum... Rapid changes occurring now in in the northern parts of our area as colder boundary layer air is drawn southwest. I have little change from prior posts. nw NJ/ne PA Trace-1.5" with valleys basically nil accumulation. se NYS a bit more: Trace-2" with least in the valleys. CT will do pretty good. NYC...might see a brief mix of wet snow/rain around 10A-11A but if ASOS calls it UP...then I don't know if the city can get a trace. My only gut feeling on all of this is that the NAM is still a touch too far south with the cold. Attached the 06z/30 HRRX variable density snowfall. Whether it occurs like this, I cant be absolutely sure. First snow of our NYC forum cool season. Please follow all local NWS statements on flooding/snowfall/freeze. I may update once or twice today.

More guidance: For those N of the city... again...wet snow so I'd cut the amounts in half for POU... around 1" The city SREF plume is now down to where I think it should be, nil or 0.1-0.2. Probably melt on contact if it does mix with or change in the city. The banding on the 12z/29 cycle has shifted a little east... so not quite as good a signal but still some action, especially N of I80. I've added a graphic pic for 12z/30... from the 12z/29 SPC HREF... it too can be slightly cold but gives an idea.

Hi, I've added the 12z/29 NAM thermal profile at LGA... please remember... this is model. Timing could be wrong or too exuberant on profile cooling or very little precipitation left after any changeover in the city. I'll revisit banding in 20 minutes.

Good Thursday morning again, especially those who want to see some wet snow in the 5 boroughs; - aka NYC. I'll start with--- I hope the NAM is not misleading me and ends up slightly too cold. It definitely snows with accumulations in the not too distant nw-nne suburbs... Whether the CP ASOS records wet snow, or just UP, I think the city will see at a minimum, a period of a mix of rain and wet snow developing around 10-11AM and then trending to all light rain Noon-2P, then ending. IF ASOS doesn't see it, it may not be recorded as an official T. 12z/29 NAM is reconfirming it's recent colder than all models solutions and so while it could still be a NAM slightly too cold scenario, I am leaning NAM, especially since it's closing in on prior GFS-P indicators of 5-6 days ago (I think a fault of the current GFS is that it doesn't handle the BL temps very well in marginal thermal profiles- I think I demonstrated this a couple of time last winter-in advance of a situation in CHI and elsewhere). So, what i expect after primary ZETA has departed and diminished to light rain-drizzle around midnight, is one or two developing moderate to heavy bands within the general cyclonic flow - approaching 500MB flow generated rain/drizzle. Those should develop over NNJ-se NYS and possibly extreme ne PA around 7-9AM and that will be a transition to a colder BL profile and what I think is gloppy wet snowflakes mixed with rain in NYC ~10-11A and a 7 to 1 or something like snow ratio in the nw suburbs of NYC, including nw NJ/se NYS and CT. I've added some 06z NAM time sections and I think you can see where the marginal temps are around 8AM at LGA, then it cools enough at 10-11 AM for a better chance of snow making it down to the ground...not sticking in NYC except maybe roofs/cars--depending on location. One thing tends to always happen...if it snows for an hour or so, the sfc temp drops to 33-34, no matter the northerly surface wind. I've also added a modeled banding signature (black band in NJ) that suggests what I'm talking about and seeing in model data. The snow growth will be briefly decent near 8am Friday in these band's but our temperature profile in NYC at 8AM may still be too warm to see wet snow at that time.

Please follow NWS statements. Otherwise, am glad modeling continues as previously anticipated and adjusted slightly down yesterday. Still differences of opinion and this is related to temp profiles so it's still possible am a little overstated on my expectations but for now...no change from yesterdays early post. Except... more wind this evening eastern LI where gusts 45 MPH seem possible, and then a repeat around daybreak Friday. Will reevaluate later today but for now, that's all I have. Have a fun day... mPING will be helpful tomorrow on mix and phase changes.

Wantage NJ (this part) 0.18 so far today with drizzle in progress. 757A/28

0.13 in this part of Wantage NJ so far this morning... (0.19 this past Sunday-Monday).

Please see NHC and local NWS forecasts on Zeta associated wind and coastal flooding. Overall: modeling just doesn't seem to want to develop a significant trailer low near the NJ coast Friday morning due to waning structure of the current ejecting southern Rockies low aloft. This lessens chances of decent secondary Friday morning event...doesn't end it (in my mind) but doesn't look as good as days previous. Still a chance but not the likely solution. My expectation: If 4" rain were to occur, probably Ocean County southward. Otherwise possible 3" amounts or greater should be reserved for the region s of I80 including LI. Killer freeze I80 northward Friday evening-especially early Saturday, with a killer freeze possible most of the rest of our area except LI, NJ shore. Chance of a Low temp of 32 NYC Friday-Saturday appears much lower now and probably not happening. (00z/28 UK appears colder than the EC Friday-early Sat) As per prior Bluewave post---shortest period between Trace snow in NYC possible for Friday mid-late morning early afternoon. (Maybe a Trace of snow in the air next Monday Nov 2 as well?) Accumulative snow of 1-3" appears "possible" for high terrain N of I80, with even up to 1/4 inch near the city in NJ (grass-cars-roofs) but this possibility still has options for being less Gust 50 MPH possible e LI Friday morning-early afternoon but probably capped ~45 MPH (air temps 35-40F northerly flow advection over adjacent warm water near 60F) Minor coastal flooding seems probable with the Friday morning high tide NJ coast (did not check NY). Stevens and ETSS available guidance is a little higher than 2-3 days ago. Finally: To give us snow lovers hope...have added two graphics from the SPC SREF (plumes). You can decide what you like from these. I'm playing it conservative this morning. Maybe these means (Dark black line) will be right.... but am not convinced of that much.

Good Tuesday morning all, will be traveling this morning so won't be able to effectively-reliably comment but a very very quick read of the 00z/27 cycle op runs/ensembles. Yesterdays post still holds, tho a little concerned about models delaying changeover down into our area and resulting in a little less snow/cold drama. However, the 00z/27 EC op is holding firm. I wont post any pics since others will soon... and it may change yet again. In my opinion: IF the east-northeastward moving closed low aloft can maintain more structure as a closed low in its crossing the forum area on Friday, our chances improve for snow and a decent batch of heavy qpf Friday morning-early afternoon- if not: then the big qpf is Thursday and Fridays deepening of the sfc low off NJ won't happen and we go home frustrated by little or no snow (except I84 high terrain where I think some sort of accumulations are likely). Also...fwiw... IF they get 6+" of snow up in high terrain n of either I84 or I90 (Catskills-Berks-Greens-Ads-ORH hills), power outages would become a threat if it occurred in constant 32F dew point air. Still quite a ways off on having a reliable idea of any 6" accumulations. So from yesterday below: If 4" rain were to occur, probably Ocean County southward. Killer freeze I80 northward Friday afternoon-evening-especially early Saturday, with a killer freeze possible most of the rest of our area except maybe parts of LI. NYC first freezing temp is modeled for NYC by the 00z/26 and 27 EC. (00z/27 UK has dropped a lot of the snow and is not quite as cold as it was on the 00z/26 cycle) As per prior Bluewave post---shortest period between Trace snow in NYC possible for Friday. Accumulative snow of several inches appears "possible" for high terrain N of I80, with even up to an inch near the city in NJ but this possibility still has options for being less (GFS - Para seems to be the BEST model on this several days ago if this occurs). [[Corrected BEST for GFS PARA at 409P/26 ]] 00z/27 models generally backing off on southward extent of accumulative snow. on GFS PARA: if this doesn't happen down here--it was the first model showing sig snowfall this far south, and the ICON wasn't too far behind. So we may not know for sure which model is best, til 22z Friday. Gust 50 MPH possible e LI Friday. Minor coastal flooding possible with the Friday morning high tide NJ coast (did not check NY). Please follow NWS and posters here. 530A/27

No change in my early morning post on this thread. Will recheck again Tuesday morning.

0.17 here in Wantage since it began sprinkling here around 645PM last evening and measuring around 10PM. Pretty steady small drop rain now with .03 since 9A.

South side stronger I think initially coming out through the Delmarva. Then on Friday the upper low itself weakens opens eastward and permits the high to the north to approach and tighten north side remnant Zeta gradient with strong North-Northeast CAA during the afternoon in the boundary layer (over warm SST) and significant wind transfer from aloft.

If 4" rain were to occur, probably Ocean County southward. Killer freeze I80 northward Friday afternoon-evening-especially early Saturday, with a killer freeze possible most of the rest of our area except maybe parts of LI. NYC first freezing temp is modeled for NYC but the 00z/26 UK/EC. As per prior Bluewave post---shortest period between Trace snow in NYC possible for Friday. Accumulative snow of several inches appears "possible" for high terrain N of I80, with even up to an inch near the city in NJ but this possibility still has options for being less (GFS - Para seems to be the BEST model on this several days ago if this occurs). [[Corrected BEST for GFS PARA at 409P. ]] Gust 50 MPH possible e LI Friday. Minor coastal flooding possible with the Friday morning high tide NJ coast (did not check NY). Please follow NWS and posters here.