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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    Just crossed 1" at Wantage NJ.
  2. wdrag
    In the last hour the power outages have increased considerably NYS, OH, NC.
  3. wdrag
    NYS mesonet now max G 54-60 MPH Queens east to the tip.
  4. wdrag
    LWX is warning. Doesn't mean there is verification posted yet... but enough for the radar operating team to issue.
  5. wdrag
    MANYYYYY reports 40-52KT now on LI coasts into the Norwalk Light area of sw CT... per the generous courtesy of Weather flow.
  6. wdrag
    4 NYS mesonet sites with 50-54 MPH max gusts on LI...Queens to the e tip.
  7. wdrag
    I just checked 12z/30 NAM 3K with R# and wind... think we can do some more of this NYC area next several hours. LI...I dont have an r# so cant promise but it should come up there too.
  8. wdrag
  9. wdrag
    SRM doesn't look impressive on DIX for west chester...but bowing is pretty good. Have to think some sort of strong wind in that.
  10. wdrag
    Think there is possible damaging wind and rotation near West Chester PA... from what I can tell... BUT NWS has all the data and I'm just on radar scope. I could be wrong.
  11. wdrag
    49kt at seaside heights right now as these winds pulse up and down ne NJ and NYC next 3 hrs...then await a convective line of sorts 4-6P? How do I feel... overdone so far in NJ per posted reports... I think LI will do well by the time 7Pm rolls around. ""If"" convection gets going late we should get some 50MPH+ winds with tha scattered-broken line ...it's an IF it gets going. I'm glad we have something...just not quite as robust as would have liked to see verify. LGA has hit 41 KT.
  12. wdrag
    54 MPH Queens NYS mesonet and 51 MPH Lyndhurst NJ past hour. Brief burst, then eases then we get whatever is leftover late this afternoon NJ.
  13. wdrag
    Thanks... excellent post. One note... don't go only by the legend. see the 50 in sw NJ... i think there is a downward blend of all the data. Bottom line 45-60 MPH gusts are now occurring here and there the south two thirds of NJ.
  14. wdrag
    Note; past 3 hours of reported wind gusts 40 kt and greater. ACY-ILG among them. KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KCHS: Charleston, Charleston AFB, SC, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KCRE: North Myrtle Beach, Grand Strand Airport, SC, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KGYY: Gary Regional, IN, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KILG: Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KILM: Wilmington, Wilmington Intl Arpt, NC, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMRH: Beaufort, Michael J Smith Field Airport, NC, United States [45kt, 23m/s] I saw a 50 knot there more than 3 hrs ago.
  15. wdrag
    Logan Township extreme sw NJ 50 kt ~950A> NJ Climate station
  16. wdrag
    52.9 KT Ocean City south beach NJ near ACY at about 940AM ish.
  17. wdrag
    Don't know if Mt Holly will use the 59 MPH in the past hour at Fortesque on DE Bay (far southern NJ).
  18. wdrag
    Strongest warm frontal se wind now shifting to the central-southern NJ coast with reports of 40 knot.
  19. wdrag
    Ocean City MD Weather flow sensor 47 KT now, and Dewey Beach DE weather flow sensor has reached 39.8KT. Cranking up on the Delmarva coast and probably only increasing from there. HRRR op run now trying to form a convective line late this afternoon NJ coast. We'll see what happens. Meanwhile from near Nashville TN to near Lex KY many reports 1/2-1" snowfall so far. mping has the snow rain mess in OH etc.
  20. wdrag
    1215Z... gusts up to 38 KT on the VA coast portion of the Delmarva.
  21. wdrag
    Hope you're right... am a little concerned that this will be lower end event... BUT... too much wind in the sounding to ignore the potential. So far 48KT at MCN GA around 0839z, and CHS SC 44 kt at 1120z. It's just going to emerge-blossom late this morning in NJ and spreasfd newd from there. IF nothing in NJ over 45 MPH by Noon, then much less of a gradient event, then just counting on a convective line of some sort mid afternoon.
  22. wdrag
    Good Monday morning all, I don't expect this wind event to be quite as strong as Nov 15, but I am expecting power outages I95 corridor eastward and if svr occurs e PA/w NJ, there too. 00z06z/30 wind fields aloft seem to be down about 3 kt from yesterday but the FOUS from the 06z NAM is emphatic about an event this afternoon-evening (noon-9PM). First best chance of 50 MPH NYC area around 1PM, then again 5-6P if a svr narrow fine line approaches from the west. You saw the SPC D1 above. I'm including the latest HRRR gust forecast through 01z/1 plus the minimum SPC SREF gust forecast for today, both MPH. It's a matter of monitoring and seeing if we get a low topped fine line of convection 3P-7P. Strongest wind gusts overall continue for LI/CT. Still thinking gusts 45kt many of the airport NYC area east and northeast toward RI, some of it in gradient-showers, and others with thunder. nw Nj/ne PA/se NYS max gust 45-55 MPH, mainly near ridges. Follow NWS forecasts/statements/any warnings and monitor upstream developments, comparing with the models. Right now 16,000 without power in southern GA...minor yellow on the power outage grid from recent svr wx. Big snows expected from near DAY to CLE and ERI by Tuesday night. Much of the northeast 2/3 of Ohio could have snow depth of 6" or greater by early Wednesday morning. Let's see what happens. 525A/30
  23. wdrag
    Now this should be my last post til morning. 23z HRRR for Noon Monday... max gusts thru that time. NJ coast is cranking in Ocean County, ridges in nw NJ starting to hit 50 and NYC-LI etc should start hitting 50 MPH in parts of the area around 1230-130P. Rereviewing guidance tomorrow morning. By then we'll probably have a pretty good idea if svr broke out in the Carolinas and if ORF is up to 35KT at 6AM. This will be a very fast developer. HRRR has 89KT e of Ocean County NJ at 17z. Seems 10 kt too high. That could affect the sfc gusts... but In think the idea is here... intensifying as it moves closer to LI...
  24. wdrag
    NWS has to make the call... guidance I'm seeing says 50 - 60 MPH and multiple hours out there, iso 70 possible. Criteria for HWA sustained ASOS -NWS accepted mesonet wind 40 MPH or NWS accepted gust 58 MPH , or damage. Damage appears likely to me for parts of LI, but that's just my take on this evolution. I see the 21z op HRRR is starting to push gusts 45-55 MPH at 10 AM into s NJ. This is probably my last post til 630AM Monday.
  25. wdrag
    We'll monitor with some interest the 5th-7th... especially hilly nw suburbs... as all have said, doesn't look good for this one in the city. One event at a time...
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