wdrag

agreed on all .. at least the southern stream is cold and active. No one in the media talking about a high impact event in OHIO-MI early next week. Sort of surprised... maybe I'm reading this wrong?

Wantage NJ near the tippy top of nw NJ 0.34 so far. drizzle continues.

Can't promise but the little line near Allentown at this time may strengthen across NYC around 11A? 12z Modeling doesn't seem to capture this so i could be wrong but relying more on 06z HRDPS.

Interesting morning midday LI/CT... possible gusts 35-45 MPH in a couple of showers/isolated thunderstorm. Sounding not quite unstable enough lower 1000 feet for better transfer. I expect isolated thunderstorms to develop LI/CT before this ends from west to east midday-early afternoon.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Grateful to participate here in good health! Hopefully all who view this feel good as well. No change in the topic outlined. A decent HSLC severe weather event appears to coming with the storm maximizing its potential as it goes to our west Monday night-Tuesday morning. EC continues very consistent and other modeling is gradually joining. I think there is a pretty good chance of a widespread severe weather event into the Delmarva s NJ and probably reaching us Monday night, then on the wane to our northeast Tuesday morning as the primary storm weakens. In our forum, scattered uproots and power outage damage seems to be continually focused on NJ-LI-CT but no one is out of the picture. This morning's rains helps soften the ground a bit, especially I95 corridor eastward. Added this mornings SPC outlook. Weaker GFS 06z/26 lower wind profile graphic added for LGA plus the R#. Solid red near 00z/1 (7P MON) should be able to grab the seflow of 50-55 KT near 975MB in turbulent turnover-transfer. Pressure over our area will be less than 1000MB so the FOUS BL wind should be good for sustained. Model soundings offer shower-storm movement of about 200 degrees near 50 kt Monday evening. Not quite as intense on the GFS as the 11/15 event. EC is stronger. Just have to wait and see if the EC lessens its impact. For now its' still 50-60 MPH Gusts for an hour or two Monday evening with 850 winds around 80KT... slightly stronger than the GFS. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... It appears increasingly probable that a closed upper low over the southern Plains will merge with a northern-stream upper trough over the eastern CONUS on Day 4/Sunday, likely forming a highly amplified upper trough/low by Day 5/Monday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement in depicting a deepening surface low developing from coastal LA Sunday morning northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity by Day 5/Monday. As greater low-level Gulf moisture advances inland across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic in tandem with the deepening surface low, weak instability may develop across the warm sector of this cyclone. Rapidly strengthening low and mid-level wind fields suggest that organized severe storms capable of producing at least isolated damaging winds may occur over parts of the Deep South into the Carolinas on Day 4/Sunday, and from the Carolinas into eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Monday. At this point, it remains very uncertain how much surface-based instability will ultimately develop across these regions, which will have a large impact on overall severe potential. This uncertainty precludes the introduction of 15% severe probabilities for now. However, the severe potential for this system will be reevaluated in later outlook updates. Once the cold front associated with this cyclone clears the East Coast, severe thunderstorm potential appears minimal across the CONUS on Day 6/Tuesday and Day 7/Wednesday. ..Gleason.. 11/26/2020

Noticed a CoCoRAHS smattering of Trace's in the forum area, presuming mostly rain early this morning.

Very very unlikely thru 12z-Dec 1.

Good Wednesday afternoon, No change in the oriented topic. 12z /25 modeling: ICON now back on board. It and the op EC-UK-GGEM all have 70-80 kt 850 MB southerly inflow to LI late Monday. GFS now up to 50kt but in two waves of se inflow. Ec OP rudimentary gust predictor has increased a bit, showing near 65MPH gust potential. WPC qpf has increased each of the past two forecast cycles since yesterdays origination...now with widespread 2-4". WPC also has a 996MB or lower sfc low nw PA 12z/Tue. We're still 5-6 days away. Phasing no guarantee but looking likely. If the energy is split, like the 12z/25 GFS, then inflow and big qpf continues but less chance to exceed 50MPH gusts (reducing risk for more than isolated power outages) 12z/25 GEFS ens checked but this discussion has not yet seen NAEFS and EPS from the 12z cycle. I don't anticipate much difference through Dec 2. May not comment again til Thanksgiving morning. Plan for a fairly high impact event. Later,

Just a note... I see the EC and GGEM op runs from 00z/25 are favoring another event for our area around the 4th-5th. Have my doubts if the first storm around Dec 1 is big. Too soon too recover except for a CFP. EPS has not much hint, though-some, and GEFS is all nw flow at 850MB after Dec 1 for a week. Instead we may need to think about Dec 8-9. That looks a little more promising to me, including a weeks recovery time. However, I hope for nw suburbs folks, to be wrong about Dec 4-5.

Good Wednesday morning nw-ne suburbs! Monticello metar had a flurry around 1 AM. Unsure if anyone up there had an ice pellet or snow flurry overnight but my attention has shifted to early next week and maybe the 8th-9th, all on the main NYC forum.

Good Wednesday morning all, No significant change to this outlook. ICON is out to sea (east and a miss), 00z/25 GEFS and EPS are similar to yesterday..EPS now a little heavier on QPF as is WPC heavier on QPF... but still a range of possibilities including tracking Appalachians or maybe closer to e PA? NAEFS is going for phasing and while it's surface response lags, it's also getting stronger. Probably not good to hang our hats on the strongest EC solution but some of the op runs are interestingly strong(not sure it will be quite as strong as Nov 15, but weakened ground due to Thursday=Thanksgiving mornings rain may compensate for less leafed trees) I've included below this mornings D4-8 discussion from SPC...note this southern system may carry severe from the Gulf states to there mid-Atlantic. Probs so far too low, in part do to model differences. (i underlined). Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance has come into better agreement regarding the eastward advance of an upper low over the southern Plains on Day 4/Saturday. Any severe potential Saturday appears to be confined along/south of a surface boundary which should be located across parts of coastal/south TX and perhaps southern LA. Some phasing of this upper low with a northern-stream upper trough over the Midwest seems probable on Day 5/Sunday. A northward advance of a partially modified Gulf airmass may occur over parts of the Southeast Sunday, with an associated isolated/marginal severe risk. Differences in the evolution of a highly amplified upper trough/low over the eastern states become apparent in medium-range guidance by Day 6/Monday. Regardless, a continued isolated/marginal severe threat may exist Monday across the warm sector of a deepening surface cyclone from parts of FL and the Southeast along the East Coast and potentially extending into the Mid-Atlantic. For Day 4/Saturday through Day 6/Monday, too much uncertainty currently exists regarding inland destabilization to include 15% severe probabilities for any day. 634A/25

Probably my last on this for the night. Ice pellets occurring in this band at State College in the geographic center of PA. mPing.

If this were summer? We'd wonder why modeling is so conservative on a band of snow and ice pellet showers racing (45 MPH?) eastward across N Central PA. As it stands...the 18z EC is trying... and may allow a sprinkle here and there in NYC metro between 2A-430A? We'll be sleeping and not notice if it does make it. If it was summer, it might be a band of thunderstorms. Hopefully the HRRR, which is supposed to be good at picking up convection, would have this. Right now, I think it's lagging. I see mPing just picked up on ice pellets at State College. Miniscule minor Fgen/WAA mainly 800-600MB.

Not much going on wintry weather wise so I figured I'd perk up the nw-ne suburbs. Models seem to be missing the fgen band racing across nrn PA. May last longer than any of the modeling and come in as a 15 minute snow or ice pellet shower across ne PA and se NYS n and w of POU between 1130PM and 230AM. Trace.

Caution: VERYYYYYYY early and this could end up much less robust than outlined below, if the northern and southern streams don't phase, or phase early enough into a closed LOW somewhere over NYS/PA/OHIO. (something always changes from what we see 7 days away but it's posted since there may be some discussion about the potential). Modeling has been trending to a large sub-1000MB sfc low early next week, with it's maximum strength in the mid Atlantic states. Ensembles to start, offer a solid 1" of rain and wind gusts 40 MPH. 12z/24 EPS/GEFS 850MB wind at 06z/1 is around 45KT, not the operational magnitude of the southerly GFS 65KT, GGEM 70KT, ECMWF 75KT, found over LI. Added the baseline D7 graphics from WPC and view these as a start. Added 12z/24 GFS lower wind field for LGA. The Richardson # preliminarily in this single 12z/24 member cycle allows downward from roughly 925MB. (50 KT). Also added the EC PWAT (tropical connection briefly 1.6"+). The 12z/24 operational EC has KI mid 30s generating lightning s of LI suggesting a High Shear Low Cape wind event. Strongest wind threat this early in the modeling is LI/CT. (did not say 50 KT gusts will occur but based only on the modeling, it's possible). A very small chance of some backside snow cover higher terrain western-northern suburbs.... To avoid disappointment on a big wet wind storm not happening, prepare for the more routine WPC scenario, BUT monitor.

Good afternoon, If you can, give me til ~ 530P when I can more thoroughly assess for a topic Nov 30-Dec 1 storm and associated hazards. Doing Christmas things right now. 12z run jumped upon something...suddenly multiple models pretty intense storm. Not a lock for this strong and would like to review a bunch of ensemble stuff after 4P. As noted by others Op runs from GFS, CMC, ICON among the few checked.

No topic yet on what I think is a probable Nov 30-Dec 1 big storm with greatest magnitude here (wind/rain and low prob backside covering of snow I84 high terrain). This per ensemble departures from normal. 00z/24 EC came back to 45-55 MPH gusts in the op run. Continued Nino look first half Dec BUT I think the 500 ridge may be a touch too far east in early Dec, however some interesting coastal opportunities seem to be presented in the ensembled guidance. Also I respect the considerations presented on Pacific firehose impressions and maybe a cruddy looking pattern. To me it's not as bad as now. Not sure how AO is considered so positive. I don't see it developing that way at all. There is a general suppressed blocking trend in the modeling (see GEFS confidence graphic attached at 216 hours - RMOP--- very confident). MJO evolution to me (novice) has mixed messaging though overall no outrageous warm signal for us (am I missing something????just let me-us know) - and generally trending possibly to a weak phase 1 or 8?? Euro weeklies: Best to look at 500MB, then 850 MB temp pattern for unfolding surface response. Warm in Canada doesn't mean above freezing (nighttimes lengthening there with adequate snow cover). After discussion last year with a met friend on the New England forum, I don't look at the sfc temp weeklies at all beyond week two. They just don't seem to verify very well. I may not be able to respond to any thoughts-corrections until midday-this afternoon. Have a good day. 736A/24

A passing flurry possible this morning Poconos into se NYS interior high terrain mainly n of I84 A short period of flurries appears possible tonight between midnight - 3AM in the Poconos and se NYS high terrain mainly n of I84-NAM has pretty good FGEN rolling through (better than Sunday morning). Wind post for 30th-Dec 1 on main NYC forum and no topic planned before late today or Wednesday on what should be a big storm, with maybe a little post storm dusting on Dec 1???

I don't know. The following are a bunch of words. I'm a little confused about NAEFS evolution. Typically it's the GFS that is too slow coming out of the SW USA but in this case, it's faster and I like it (it doesn't lock up in desert sw). Whether I like it and am more right than wrong??? What I do see is quite a bit of potential the first two weeks of Dec for southern stream short waves coming up off the east coast. In other words... precip threats but whether snow or rain??? The NAEFS is trending confidently below normal across Dixie early December, and above normal southern Canada. That is a broad displacement and an active southern stream (I think). Could be wrong ,especially if the future cycles of the NAEFS lose the modeled departures. I may comment tomorrow or Wednesday? Todays cycle has quite a bit of 200MB jet constantly south of 37N, especially early Dec and it is modeled the predominant jet in N America. Doesn't seem Nina like? More Nino-like to me, at least temporarily. No????? It's modeling-subject to large errors beyond 7 days as you noted earlier? Yourself and others probably understand whether what is ensemble modeled, can realistically happen Dec 1-14. For me, it's probably best to not broadcast too much hope but be aware of what appears to be a somewhat better pattern of "opportunities" to begin DJF. Maybe we can an inch or two of snow out of this pattern in NYC in early Dec?

I see it in 12z/23 CMC. No question phasing for a big storm is complicated (not a high prob) and if comes in pieces, how it all transpires makes a sig difference in ptype outcomes this time of year. Monitoring. If this potential continues another two days, may start a 48-72 hr topic on wet wind event, followed by ptype-accumulative western-northwestern suburbs snow. Sooooo. early right now and prefer not give this second storm idea much credence, yet. Another post somewhere in NYC forum a day or 3 ago had also mentioned the colder more interesting look to DEC around here. In the end, we've got to keep in mind stats-climo.

Good morning, No topic yet but 5 successive cycles of the EC indicates the potential for a period of 45-55MPH gusts Nov 30 or early Dec 1 entire NYC forum. Something is coming in that two day period... sizable trough and small chance of a northern-southern stream phaser.

Good Monday morning all (Nov 23), Yesterday morning had the slightest of an ice pellet-snow shower north of I-84 per reports here and mPing. We're going to try to out-perform that Wednesday morning and a little caution is urged on a big warmup for Thanksgiving morning n of I-84. So, no big snowstorms foreseen in November I-84 northward, but eventually the more seasonable first half of December might produce something that is more than 3" for I-84. Tuesday: Maybe a flurry? (Accumulative snow showers concentrated near Oneida Lake in NYS). Wednesday: A short period of snow or flurries is anticipated between 1AM and 10AM, that could produce a covering (less than 1"), especially Poconos, CT/MA and the Adirondacks. See UKMET snow cover graphic which includes snow showers in upper NYS today and tomorrow. The idea is the southern edge of the snow...while it may not be that far south, at least a flurry is anticipated that far south, per increasingly south modeling of the past 24 hours. Which also tells me, that it may be quite cool on Thanksgiving n of I84...high terrain of slight icing interest there. For now, that is an outlier possibility for our NYC forum northern fringe. Wind: will mention for entire forum Nov 30 or Dec 1. Looking forward to see how this all turns out.

Hi... After review of what happened today... not much, but a very brief period of ice pellets did occur in at least some spots of our NYC nw-ne suburbs forum; just north of I84 this morning trending to a brief mix of snow further north of POU. Models tend to underplay the very minor lead thrusts of warmer air arriving and so, am glad a few on here may have seen 5 minutes of wintry weather. We'll give it another try Wednesday morning near daybreak. Very brief and overall inconsequential but some of the modeling is coming back south. We'll see what happens. Meanwhile a few flurries in the wake of the cold front tomorrow=Monday, may cross some of our higher terrain late Monday or Tuesday.

and as recently as around 11A-1115A... reports of snow/sleet just s of Kingston NY and two reports of ice pellets near Waterbury CT.

So far only sprinkles MPO, MSV, Wantage NJ, with ice pellets near Carbondale PA around 930A and apparently now vicinity MSV. Probably sprinkles further e in CT lower elevations. at 1015A.