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10:22 am EST - 12/5/2020GARDNER, MASnow2.0 INCH 10:24 am EST - 12/5/2020HOLDEN, MASnow2.0 INCH

Radra scope viewers... think I'm getting a decent band of snow into e Monroe and Pike counties of PA...at least for elevations. It's narrow, brightening (phase change) and I suspect some 1 mi snow in there. We'll see if and when it crosses NW NJ around 930-1030A.

For the record: Let's see what happens. This is about 815AM power outages nationally... none. Will be curious where we are around 4P.

Adding for the record PRIOR to any problems.

Very good- thanks.

Some of this bright banding... WET-icy snowflakes---greater reflectivity. That tells you a change in precipitation phase for awhile The banding S+ i think may be a little softer but yellow or greater band(s) later on.

Notre on my caution: This is changing faster than I thought at elevation. It may go back and forth for a while but my amounts may be too conservative at elevation... It is going to pound for a while late this morning-afternoon up there.

Increasing reports of snow in the air from Central MA to se NYS higher terrain! This should be a NAM 3K forecast. I think it's the fastest on this. Correct is I'm wrong. Thanks.

Keep us posted on any acscums grass vs pavement. Thanks...

Seems to me...band in far e e PA at 734A I think will be one back band and then a new one will evolve e CT/Central MA midday as the low aloft forms and then drift ne with the closed low this evening to Boston. Am a little nervous about 3"/hr... ratios are so wet. There could be some barking dogs 9A-3PM in CT/LI as I think thunder is soon. Note : 42 kt gust at Ocean City MD Weather flow station and 37 knots at Dewey Beach DE past hour. Coming together fast.

The only reason i dont post in New England sub forum... I wouldn't have time for family day-day and I am Covid furloughed .. once I return to PT work in the spring, my posts even NYC will be far fewer. Just fortunate that we're still in good health. Later..

Let's keep trying to get in the ball park... Cant be absolutely sure on my taker but I like the way things are going. M PING has snow in se NYS (Ulster County). Are those Wachusetts Cameras live??? Two of them look good... if someone can answer that one. Thank you.

Ulster County near Fallsburg... edge of precip shield...snow reported in there air. First sign.

Good morning, Seldom post here. 1) A couple of things. Snow ratios in MA/CT will in my opinion be down to 6 to 1 or something like...falling at 33F. That means half of those 10 to 1 amounts, and I say ditto Kuchera. 2) On NWS collaborated graphics... Need to wait 2 hours for a full complements of updated cycle. Example...the 330A-4A deadlines... wait till the 5A or 6A updated graphics. That way you can be assured of getting their basis information for the the NWS forecast. Here's my take from the NYC forum since I am enthused. Dramatic changes should unfold next 8 hours. Follow local NWS forecasts, statements and your own interp of the models. I am going with the NAM3K and EC. However, realize the HRRRX (X for experimental- not our moderator) is not as robust as yesterday. Now we're in HRRR territory (inside 18 hours, so I'll use the operational HRRR to temper my expectations). GGEM and RGEM are not changing over to snow nearly as fast. So what follows, may be a little on the high side. Please USE NWS as official guidance. mPING will be useful. Banding is developing now and this is going to be a swat for for portions of ne CT and eastern-central MA with thunder by midday and then afternoon bands of 1-2"/hr for a couple of hours-wet snow glop high terrain with valleys much less than elevations (6 or 7 to 1 ratios?). The wind gusts of 45-55 MPH late this afternoon and evening there will, in my non science opinion, make for a major power outages in the high terrain. This is based on my anticipation of minimum 4" of wet snow on trees -wires - road signs combined with increasing wind gusts this afternoon knocking down limbs etc. Note: I could see some ASOS's in the 4+" axis being muted-jammed accumulating wet snow. Anticipating mixing with snow extreme ne PA, NW NJ and Orange County NY northward, 7A-9A with possibly an inch or so high terrain above 1000 feet, trace valleys. NW CT and w MA should mix and change to wet snow around 10A-Noon, central MA and ne CT around Noon-2P and Boston itself may be delayed til 7-9P. Follow local forecasts for amounts in CT-MA...but i can see 5-10" Worcester Hills and 4" parts of the Litchfield and Hartford Counties in CT terrain above 1000 feet with ending there not til mid afternoon, ORH some time evening and Boston sometime after midnight. (EC has 15-18" from what I can see but this may not take into account melting, compacting and snow ratios) se CT I think will see isolated damaging wind gusts near 60 MPH this afternoon. Have fun with this... and I sure hope EC and NAM 3K are right. Otherwise much less impact.

Wantage NJ as of 610A 0.36" so far. Dramatic changes should unfold next 8 hours. Follow local NWS forecasts, statements and your own interp of the models. I am going with the NAM3K and EC. However, realize the HRRRX is not as robust as yesterday. Now we're in HRRR territory (inside 18 hours, so I'll use the operational HRRR to temper my expectations). GGEM and RGEM are not changing over to snow nearly as fast. So what follows, may be a little on the high side. Please USE NWS as official guidance. I'll add some data as time allows later this morning and afternoon and look forward to all your posts. mPING will be useful. Banding is developing now and this is going to be a swat for for portions of ne CT and eastern-central MA with thunder by midday and then afternoon bands of 1-2"/hr for a couple of hours-wet snow glop high terrain with valleys much less than elevations (6 or 7 to 1 ratios?). The wind gusts of 45-55 MPH late this afternoon and evening there will, in my non science opinion, make for a major power outages in the high terrain. This is based on my anticipation of minimum 4" of wet snow on trees -wires - road signs combined with increasing wind gusts this afternoon knocking down limbs etc. Note: I could see some ASOS's in the 4+" axis being muted-jammed accumulating wet snow. Anticipating mixing with snow extreme ne PA, NW NJ and Orange County NY northward, 7A-9A with possibly an inch or so high terrain above 1000 feet, trace valleys. NW CT and w MA should mix and change to wet snow around 10A-Noon, central MA and ne CT around Noon-2P and Boston itself may be delayed til 7-9P. Follow local forecasts for amounts in CT-MA...but i can see 5-10" Worcester Hills and 4" parts of the Litchfield and Hartford Counties in CT terrain above 1000 feet with ending there not til mid afternoon, ORH some time evening and Boston sometime after midnight. (EC has 15-18" from what I can see but this may not take into account melting, compacting and snow ratios) E LI and se CT I think will see isolated damaging wind gusts near 60 MPH while NYC isolated around 45 MPH this afternoon and 35-45 MPH ridges ne PA, se NYS and NNJ. Central NJ coast may see a brief burst of 45-50 MPH around 9 or 10 AM?? that I'm least certain of. 610A/5 Added 3 graphics produced by the NWS this morning in their interoffice collaboration. Please use as a basis.

While the 18z EC is east a bit on qpf in NJ, it sure looks like from its moisture profiles that the previous further west 12z run is going to be more accurate. Here is the 22z HRRR (not the X) and showing a change at elevation in nw NJ at about 9AM... with totals by 11AM. Could be a little high but strong VV, vort max approaching should provide interesting elevation changes around sunrise Saturday.

See 18z HRRRX .. definitely possible. I think mPing will be showing snow both nw and e of NYC.

fwiw... legend for snow mounts 18Z HRRRX.

Noticing two bands of strong banding transitioning northward through CT MA tomorrow...once mid morning and the other early afternoon. There is going to be quite a power outage event I think in MA/CT high terrain... combo of wet snow and gusts 35-45 MPH... I could see 1-2"/hr snowfall occurrence in parts of N CT interior MA tomorrow. Big problem up there. Also... don't give up yet in NNJ and even a snow shower down to NYC-LI in the wake Saturday midday-afternoon. Thunder I'm pretty sure will happen in southern New England Saturday mid morning-first burst of ice coated snow and strong pressure falls-advection fields. I may add more around 3P. I am thankfull this wasn't a big waste of our time... our CT and even NNJ and se NYS members will see some snow in the air, tho I think the 4+ acsums reserved mostly for CT. Snow depth on the EC suggests well over 6" in nw CT. Need to balance this with the still reserved GGEM-RGEM... marginal thermal profiles. It's the NAM-EC and even GFS vs the reserved GGEM-RGEM. What the models giveth, they can taketh. I don't want to see the 18z or 00z models back down. Here's the SPC HREF snowfall - see it's legend and also the 19z wind gust forecast... (MEAN).

Suggest looking at Kuchera and merged positive snow depth. Helps with elevations and warm daytime temps. Definitely more favorable than what we saw on the 00z/4 cycle.

Looking good for High Impact 4+" elevations per NAM and HRRR for a significant impact event e of the CT River interior MA/n CT down to near our just nw of I95...combined wet snow/few wind gusts 35-45 MPH except 50+MPH I95 MA and possibly RI. Hopefully the 12z/4 multimodel westward drift is legit. IFFFFF it is, I want to point out the HRRR had it first. I expect gusts 45-55 MPH NJ coast and LI except few gusts lesser 40-45 MPH NYC.

You all have it... fun and snow change challenging for your area. I've nothing to add that you're not already aware of. Monitor the HRRR 06z, 12z,18z/4 trends realizing the HRRR tends to run a little warm (or did prior to the upgrade of a couple days ago). Its the furthest west of the 00z-06z/4 operational modeling.

Good Friday morning everyone, Tough to stomach but my upgraded expectation from predawn yesterday (Thursday Dec 3), doesn't look like it will happen. Instead the base topic discussion from two days ago looks to be my own perception of accurate considerations for the NYC forum. GFS HRRR are closest holdouts for high impact, so I don't completely give up, but overall---modeling does not have the 06z/4 HRRR as a consensus solution in our NYC regional forum. I'm monitoring the 12z and 18z HRRR for trends on precip shield and gusts (it should be further east if all the other 00z/06z operational modeling is reliable). HRRR tends to run slightly warm on its profiles. It is the model that seems to have the comma head precip, furthest west tomorrow morning. IF that remains the case through the 18z cycle today, then we're in better shape for a higher impact event for LI/CT. My 00z-06z/4 model based snow expectation ne PA/nw NJ is Trace -2"; Litchfield Hills in our area 1-4" of snow tomorrow morning. Gusts 45-55MPH e LI and NJ coasts Saturday morning-midday with this mornings D1-2WPC issuance qpf sufficing which says no NEW flooding risk for NJ.

fwiw: HRRRX (experimental). Could be overdone and too exuberant... BUT... for 18z/5 notice the max gust potential (50 kt NJ LBI area and 40-45 kt on much of LI) and the 850-500 RH with 700 wind... quite an area of lift northwest of the storm and the se edge of the 90% RH, axised ne-sw thru NYC. Snow is already accumulating down into NJ high terrain and I would think there is some pretty good precip rates on going from NJ thru toward BOS. Let's see what the next cycles say. As i prefaced...this could be overdone for us... but it is potent.

Have seen the trend and some of the discussion. I'd like tor see the 00z, 06z,12z/4 cycles each edge nw 20 miles... if that doesn't happen, I will be wrong on the high impact. Definitely disconcerting but not overly discouraged. In a fairly high amplitude pattern, Sensitivity interaction nuances can make a big difference. However, to know which guides what, imo, we don't know. I know some folks are discouraged about modeling. We've just come off two topics with easily more than 5 days advance post, that I thought were successful framing of the future. This one we've known about uncertainty. And we also know this is going to be a pretty good storm. In winter we notice the difference of 60 miles more easily, because of the snow factor. I know in 2000, I didn't have ensembles to look at to help gauge uncertainty (just a so called poor mans operational mental ensemble). We're doing better and this one is not yet over. Maybe tomorrow I'll admit that it's fairly routine, but for now... tooo much potency to ignore. Whether it yields here or just a little to our east and northeast... I can't be sure. Will briefly comment tomorrow morning-hopefully with some sort of slight northwest trend.