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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    DIX Correlation Coefficient (CC) and of 418PM with mping obs.
  2. wdrag
    snow reports around PHL as of about 345P.
  3. wdrag
    Widespread mdt-heavy snow in PA now edging into PHL and central NJ. Here's a look at about 4PM.
  4. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 4sw: 0.1" new snow since it began 246P. Breezy at times. 19.9/15.8 small flake dense packed snow.
  5. wdrag
    Maybe around 5 or 6P, we'll repost the snow amount forecast (takes a while to get it all collaborated for a post).
  6. wdrag
    Philly 1-2" now per PHI FB page comments.
  7. wdrag
    not happening... not meant to be (at least I don't think so). Wind compaction, sleet, drifting...will be a difficult measure.
  8. wdrag
    On the HRRR accumulation graphic through 5AM, use the lower end of those value ranges. That's the safest, I should be a rough unsafe travel evening .
  9. wdrag
    Can everyone live with this??? I think it's realistic, with another 1-4" coming I80 LI after 5AM and 3-6" coming after 5A n of I80 in far nw NJ/ne PA and se NYS CT. We'll see if this comes down a bit in future cycles?
  10. wdrag
    I see Howell NJ had 0.2" accumulation at 1230P. Must be some other acscums in NJ now.
  11. wdrag
    I can see ~1"/hr I-95 sewd but not much more than that due to temp profiles near freezing. Bigger fluffier dendrites I think will be in the colder airmass, unless they get huge in NYC due to aggregation and a slug of bigger qpf heading in there. I definitely expect 2" hr for a few hours this eve e PA/nw NJ and of course advancing northward during the night,
  12. wdrag
    Snow measuring: CoCORAHS guidance is deepest in 24 hours from time it began for storm total (greater 24hrs, clean the board and add whatever hours beyond). However, not all offices do that. I know in Mt Holly, to limit snowmelt and or drifting problems, clean the board every 6 hours. That's what I'll be doing at 845PM tonight. Mat from NJ Climate Center may be commenting-adding on.
  13. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 740' MSL. flurries began 246P. 22/11. Been evaporating aloft past hour, just enough to raise the dew point 1F. Thats the lead dry air suppression.,
  14. wdrag
    It will .. meant it will snow hard.
  15. wdrag
    It will!
  16. wdrag
    Am monitoring a bit now. No further comment on modeling til NWS adjusts whatever they believe they need to. I think what you're all doing, tracking 3K NAM vs HRRR is probably the most important on short range performance.
  17. wdrag
    Have seen 12z/16 EC..enough to keep me thinking ice and packed snow LI/NYC sometime later tonight but it goes back to all snow by 5 or 6AM i think and snows another inch or possibly 2 in the city 7A-9A. I could see snow amounts capping 8-12" inland I-78 I to I195 due to sleet. Also think 1 hr flash freeze (8F temp drop self defined for parts of NYC Monmouth County when the wind shifts to n around 5or 6A 33-25). IF that happens, bad news for bridges and rails. Again, FOLLOW NWS. This is just something the models have been trying to hint at for a number of cycles. One other thing: EC does not have thunder. But per multiple models I see qpf suppression in an area w of I95 and near I78. These things happen in big storms and NOT predictable yet where they will occur. Nothin here yet. 119P and off line til 2PM ish
  18. wdrag
    Hope you're right. Dry slot implied your depiction above which also tells me trouble. . NMM3K too amped? Don't know. NWS I think likes the 3K a lot. I don't have a feel but once the 0 layer more than 25 MB thick (~800 ft above freezing) gets modeled to within 20 miles of you and you don't have strong VV, and/or -8C ice nuclei either available or descending into the dry slot , it's trouble. Models are very good, but imperfect on placement. I'll favor the NAM 3k/HRRR but defer and hope you';re right about colder and I'm wrong. Right now, the zone of uncertainty needs to be briefed as such - clarity about range of impacts.
  19. wdrag
    Agree with everyone on north of GFS/EC cold snowy solutions. Added some 12z HRRR guidance. Near blizzard possible around 03z LGA, but short duration, could be some around 12z in the CAA but again short. The HRRR is very strong on wind and I can see it. NAM 10M has 50kt 10 miles east of Toms River late tonight. I'll add the graphics... from th 12z HRRR they look good to me. Also someone asked about Thunder. As you're probably aware SPC added T to a part of forum. And...the HRRR has a pretty strong signal for such this evening in those high snowfall rates. Snow depth: I like as my answer to what is coming. Use w your own best judgement. Added HRRR MAX gusts. and the 1am projected HRRR simulated radar...note sleet up here.
  20. wdrag
    Wantage 19.8/6.3 (dry). Interesting mPing ob near Reading, PA recently..ice pellets. Tells us it's marginal but it will go to snow on our front end. 924A/16
  21. wdrag
    No time to rereview... I see 0z/6 EC likes a colder scenario near I95. Could happen. The se edge still has to have sleet convert to snow which is incorrect but NYC and I95... I'm uncertain and I dont have all the tools NWS does. Please follow NWS. Appended 06z/16 EC 10 to 1. It says I'm a bit too far nw on my NYS expectations. Use your judgement. Thanks... offline til at least 930A. You'll know by then whether 12z 3K NAM has trended colder nr NYC. To me one bad sign... too much sun 6-8 hrs before an event starts. The classics have a long slow process of thickening and lowering cigs. This tells me an 8 hour front end thump down here then maybe sleet starts I80 LI midnight-2a. Have fun with this. Walt 744A
  22. wdrag
    My thinking is north of I80 between MPO and IPT or I88 region to the northern Catskills for the NYS 20+. You have to be safe wherever, drifts and services including roads may shut down for a time there? Also, check with others herein, NWS updates and TWC, of course updated modeling including the HRRR. I'm doubtful of 20" here in Wantage... can happen but sleet is my concern between midnight and 4AM. You need to be in all powder, better snow rations but modeled 1.5" qpf. Again, this my opinion only and not gospel. Definitely seek other opinions. Let's hope this works.
  23. wdrag
    Good Wednesday morning everyone, I've followed a recent example on the New England forum and offer this topic as a start over at 1PM with obs-nowcasts. The tags included hopefully cover the gamut of potential amounts. If we are certain about daily records being exceeded please add and ditto if we get top 20 at any xmacis climate site. Thank you all for contributing to the excitement-anticipation of a pretty good nor'easter.
  24. wdrag
    543AM 12/16: No change in thinking including uncertainties along I95 which to me means we have a chance to exceed this winter, what will occur NYC-LI-coastal NJ tonight. I just cannot shake the basics: S+ axis is usually 90 miles left of the 850 low and the northern half of the 700MB low and the deformation zone near 500 MB with contribution from the nose of the 850MB 50-65 kt easterly jet (moisture transport). This favors I84 and banding casts northwest to a central PA - east central NY area (roughly IPT-ALB) where 20-25" seem probable within 60 miles of that axis - at least in the high terrain, but must consider mountain shadow lesser amounts in the leeward valleys. There a multiple models showing that axis. In our forum, I think most everyone will see a period of sleet near or after midnight and that the bulk of the snow occurs in a 6-10 hour period prior ~ midnight, but that there will be a tail of moderate to heavy snow toward dawn with still 1-4" after sunrise Thursday on top of whatever occurs before sunrise---the heavier 4" potential ne PA, extreme nw NJ, se NYS and CT {where 5" may occur in 2-3 hours after sunrise Thursday}. Drifts to 4 feet possible ne PA, se NYS and northern CT where 18" accumulates since winds will gust 30-40 Mph at times overnight. NYC CP still 6-10" in my mind but shakey and may be too high because of only 10-1 snow ratios at best, sleet and possibly rain compacting as well as temps near 33F at times during the night. The power outage concerns continue near I95 with 45-50 MPH gusts (9P-6A). Coastal flooding - please see NWS offices for minor or moderate near the time of high tide Thursday morning. Finally, even if it rains or is above freezing w LI and Monmouth/northern Ocean County NJ tonight--- there could be sudden icing near sunrise Thursday when the wind switches from northeast to north and drops temps 5-10F in an hour, and iceing the residue and make travel very hazardous again in leftover new snowfall. Otherwise temps in the I84 corridor ~20-25F throughout the event. Will add some graphics by 6AM on wherever the last page of the thread. NOT a top 20 for NYC...best chance is MPO-POU axis in our forum. This is my last topic update for this event. Will begin a storm accumulation obs (snow/rain/sleet/damaging wind/coastal flooding) and nowcast topic by 6A to begin to be used once the snow begins-which I think will be between 1-4PM in our NJ/PA/w LI part of there forum. Graphics: my last on adding prestorm graphics. NWS experimental severity index, the NWS snowfall forecast for our area as per 5A/16. 00z/16 EPS 10 to 1 snow ratio snowfall--i still think too high se edge and then snow ratios will magnify I84 corridor northwestward NWS probabilistic 6+ and 18+. (Note NYC prob of 6+ is not that high). The 00z/16 SPCHREF gives us a better chance of exceeding 6" but the edges are always shaky. SPC SREF plumes for NYC. Please use all as options and may your expectations verify-just be realistic.
  25. wdrag
    Am comfortable with the topic as updated this morning at 5am and subsequent posts today seeing new guidance through 6PM. Will return in the morning. Basically this is a NWS amounts, phase change timing issues.
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