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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    Yes... 26th my burn. Love the interest by everyone and keeping everyone up to speed. Definitely of interest.
  2. wdrag
    WPC keeps stats as does NHC, in season... I don't know the answer. Think the general consensus is EC/EPS best and tends to be conservative on qpf. GFS clearly a more convective model than the EC and a high bias on qpf, tho suspect if it flags big... need to take an extra look. Sometimes it's fantastic...many others... secondary to other models. GGEM- I like it. Many do not. I do know this winter tells the truth on all these threads. IF the GGEM doesn't have it big, forget it! Time after time. Folks can look back. Doesn't mean that the GGEM is more accurate areally & placement but does mean it garners, at least my respect. Models evolve and so results may not be valid 2 years from now. If models were static as back in the 60s/70s... then your proposal would be more useful. There may be others that can provide more info... i do agree, 500MB does not do it for me. I don;'t get a chance to view many WPC qpf/extended discussions but they may tuck some info in there. Was good that someone posted the EFP discussion from WPC earlier this morning. Thank you.
  3. wdrag
    Hi everyone, Despite the stark southward shift-shrift of the 12z/28 EPS, the 12z/28 GFSv16 op (seen previously I think) and GGEM op continue on course with WPC's 16z qpf...if not heavier. Attached the 12z/28 EPS (last) and the 12Z GGEM panels and 240 hour snowfall in MM. 25MM=1" (reds). BIG but only an op. Its' mostly rain or ice for 2/5ish so that is not a snowfall contributor. The good news...GGEM still on board. Whether that's right or wrong??????? What this all tells me... wait on commitment north-south or in between. My gut tells me more northwest but that's not science. It could be as one poster ID wish casting. Need to wait it out. There is lots of interactive sensitivity that will take a few more cycles to convince us one way or the other.
  4. wdrag
    You're right... I used to pay more attention to this model and it's global stat ranking but over the last year that I've tried to use this...much more miss than hit. just another member of the 12z cycle, serving as downside reminder for those who want snow near 40N. Would like to see UK ensemble but have no source.
  5. wdrag
    Is i not the trend of GFS to virtually always be too far south on these ne storms at days 3 and beyond? If it doesn't close off, then it's close now, but if it closes off, then I expect a northward drift to the GFS solutions.
  6. wdrag
    Internet slow here in nw NJ. Another WPC placeholder till we all can fully evaluate all the modeling. This is the 12z/28 WPC D4-8, may be difficult to view? It's not yet updated on normal displays there, but my interp...they are going more and more in, certainly more likely than the 00z/28 stat version off D4-8.
  7. wdrag
    Anyway, thought some of us might like this as a placeholder. 1553z/28 WPC D4-5 Hope it's right for all of us. Still plenty of variability.
  8. wdrag
    As a placeholder, thought you'd like to see this from WPC D4-5s. AGREED 100% Don..this for my forecaster friends in New England and elsewhere who doubt. At least one or two others have noticed. I've no answers, except to hold onto ensembles/WPC and then use your own judgement. Just have to hang on ...all those EPS's posted earlier... they could be wrong, but it would imo be a formidable EPS bust on the axis of max snowfall. (note not amount but axis). This whole system has above normal SST's off NJ/DE. That may aid development? Later, Walt
  9. wdrag
    V16 and GGEM are now slowly posting.
  10. wdrag
    Couple of notes: I think there is a national weather models comms problem. GGEM/GFSV16 seem delayed. RGEM is in through 00z/Monday. Could b e a lonnnng slow wait for snow to arrive... wouldn't rush it. Go with I80 Monday morning at the latest, but possibly not I90 til Monday evening? LONNNG ways to go.
  11. wdrag
    Here are some GEFS 06z/28 plumes for LGA... use with caution but you'll like these. No consensus in this data yet except 850 and sfc temp. On the qpf and snow, try to refrain from buying into the extremes above the mean axis and think a little more conservatively. Avoid disappointment. I won't post other ensemble guidance since we're into a new 12z cycle. in order of appearance: QPF, sfc T, 850 T, type (like to have 80% for assured all snow), snowfall which is all over the place.
  12. wdrag
    You're very welcome. I might be too strong on the posts... but I just try to cut to the chase.. lots of life can go over the bridge if too involved. Not an excuse, just a reality that I try to keep in mind. That said... Nothing different from the posts. My guess is 6+ with heaviest n of I84 but that differs from WPC so take me w grain of salt and let's rereview late today on the primary thread. Also, pay attention to the other posters here and elsewhere who see negatives. I try to be conservative but push. Still plenty of uncertainty and yes, I can see only 3" extreme nw NJ and se NYS if half of this is sleet.... I do think we'll get to 6 before any sleet mix. I can't see "ensemble" EPS GEFS soundings with the access to data platforms that I rent now, so that's a disadvantage. I make lots of presumptions from the datasets that I review, and maybe too HASTILY. Later, Walt
  13. wdrag
    fwiw... fluffy large flakes of snow here in Wantage NJ 925-938A. still ongoing. won't be surprised at dustings beyond the Poconos next 24 hours ending Noon Friday before its too cold and dry. Hoping we can muster 0.2" tonight here in Wantage NJ.
  14. wdrag
    Here's the EPS cyclically ending about the same time (4th) 10x1 snow ratios inclusive of sleet. The runs prior to the 27th included snowfall for the previous storm north of I80 but I think you can see the EPS consistency, so far. I think wherever you evaluate the consistent centroid axis, that's the safest for 6+... with greater variability and potential for disappointment along the edges (I95), Adirondacks-n VT on the nw side (Comma head deformation banding). Also, fwiw... while its snowing in NJ late Sunday or early Monday, folks east of Hudson may be wondering when the snow arrives as its turn to the northeast may be a little slow and dry air devoured. Latest is first (00z/28). and proceeds backward sequentially in time.
  15. wdrag
    Thanks to all...keep adding your views-models. I and models to date may have EASILY missed something. I myself think I80 in NJ even Sussex County should be a little concerned about sleet but otherwise, there is little doubt something that will need snowplows/blowers is coming to a fairly large part of the area along or nw of I95. Did anyone notice Kuchera halving the snowfall for the valleys (partly downslope shadow, partly slightly warmer valley temps). If some of these EC temps are correct, we're talking snow ratio's dropping under 10 to 1 all of NJ after the initial few hours of snow-sleet. By the way... to those who maybe were dissappointed about only 1-2" of snow on your driveway-sidewalk on 1/26-earl;y 27. Hope it was shoveled/cleared yesterday, cause if not, it's with you as a slippery surface, probably through at least Thursday morning Feb 4. That's another reason why advisories sometimes are of value...they trigger thoughts about clearing snow from paths etc. I digressed but hopefully with a little added value. I'll post the runup of EPS ensembles very shortly. Enjoy the wintry feel. I love it, as did my energetic dog on his morning walk.
  16. wdrag
    will post all the EPS ensembles leading up to this for the past 4 days...will get that done 830-9A. walking the dog.
  17. wdrag
    612AM/28 headline update: added 6+" to the headline, best chance nw of I95. By 830A will add the multiple cycles of EPS supporting guidance. Overnight WPC D4-6 guidance still less than ideal but does not include much if any of the 00z/28 ensembles which are heavier than what is added here (hopefully correctly trended model guidance?). There is a pretty good chance of eventual rain involvement on or just se of I95, but the front end of this Nor'easter should produce snowfall for the entire area before a possible mess. Not a beast but uncertain potential for a major snowstorm (1 foot+) for part of the forum, probably closer to the I84 corridor or even north of there. Let's enjoy the ride there and appreciate whatever we get-this sets my rain concerns about the I95 corridor southeastward. Max gusts still seem near 50 MPH a part of LI and maybe the NJ coast. There is potential for minor coastal flooding with the Feb 1 high tide cycle-fortunately not astronomically high tides. Added graphics are WPC D4,5 3"+snow graphics, there total qpf forecast (seems a little low but has to be considered), the EPS base 10-1 snowfall (multiple successive cycles almost identical) and the GEFS prob for >6" of snowfall which focused my concern for rain/sleet I95 sewd.
  18. wdrag
    I didn't double check... CoCoRAHS. I have to accept. Might be higher terrain?
  19. wdrag
    KU top 10? I'm not thinking this, nor a beast but a snowstorm seems ahead for parts of I95 corridor and probably inland. Some signs of development a little too late. GEFS/GEPS have a good snow event but a little concerned about GEPS/GEFS/NAEFS offering only a general 0.4-0.8 qpf. Could be too low and undoubtedly there has to be accentuated snowfall on the inside edge of the comma head, wherever that may be nnw of the closed low. Adding a bunch of guidance: WPC stat prob of 3+" in subsequent days. Back tomorrow morn.
  20. wdrag
    Can't keep up w all the posts. Old news and comparative non-news. NYC CP coldest since Feb 1 2019 seems possible/probable Saturday or Sunday morning?? About 12-13F? May be preceded by a narrow band of squalls early Friday (prior to sunrise?), especially se NYS/PA/nw NJ. Lots of hazy white virga all day Friday per cold pool aloft: Northerly flow after secondary CFP early Friday leaves this dry sourced and unable to get more than passing flake to the ground during the daylight hours?
  21. wdrag
    CoCoRAHS summary posted after 930A/27 for the northeast USA. I thought this had a decent "initial" 19th issuance handle on the widespread wintry event (north of I78) which occurred predominantly 10A/26-5A/27 (was initially too fast by 24 hours). Models were not far enough north on primary qpf axis and heaviest snowfall (I90 widespread 4-9") since the short wave appears to me to have been stronger and further north. midway into the event daily runup. Snow predictions on my part were wayyy too high. Essentially this was a widespread 1-3" event north of I80 to I84 where it transitioned to 2-5" event in far northern part of the NYC subforum. QPF was less than modeled along and s of I80 and and a little heavier than modeled I84 northward. Snow ratios less than 10 to 1 s of I84 where mixed pcpn and I think 10 to 1 or a bit higher to the north of I84. NYC recorded it's first snowfall of the month. Yes exceeding minor but it all counts. So the topic worked okay but the amounts were too high due to northward translation of the short wave. A disappointment for many but for me, I see this as another successful synoptic scale event flagged again 6+days in advance, by the modeling. The overall modeling continues to improve. Thats the researchers/data platforms/computing power that make this happen.
  22. wdrag
    CoCoRAHS summary after 930A today: snowfalls from n MD (sleet/snow) through the forum to northwest of the forum. Also forum water equivalents.
  23. wdrag
    Model runtime logistics... it will happen... and maybe it will happen closer to what was previously discussed? They'll get it all worked out. I'm pretty satisfied with what we have now... If the models improve too much, lots of folks will need to reinvent themselves. Realllyyy - look at the lead time in topics of impact events. Consistently 5 days +.
  24. wdrag
    GFSv16 implementation probably delayed til mid March.
  25. wdrag
    Hi! I'm not an analog expert. I don't try to use them. I just go on patterns, and look for the opportunities on whatever light-moderate-major winter event. However, do share with others herein. They may have some helpful comments. Sorry i can't be of more help. Walt
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