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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    Typically CO-OP stations and CoCoRAHS sites measure 1x/day...max depth on the board since the prior morning ob. However, more accurate snowfall that limits settling-drifting etc is taken every 6 hours with a snowboard wipe. Snowfall: Measure and record the greatest amount of snowfall that has accumulated on your snowboard (wooden deck or ground if board is not available) since the previous snowfall observation. This measurement should be taken minimally once-a-day but can be taken up to four times a day, (every 6 hours) and should reflect the greatest accumulation of new snow observed (in inches and tenths, for example, 3.9 inches) since the last snowfall observation. Here's the link. https://www.weather.gov/gsp/snow Hope this helps. Walt
  2. wdrag
    Wantage NJ ... final 0.9" at our Wantage location - 740' MSL. Snow after 1P melted on contact. 34.0F at 237P.
  3. wdrag
    Ditto this part of Wantage Nj ~740'MSL 1PM 6 hourly...deck cleared for new snow after the first 6 hr total was 0.9" Pavement 1/3rd" wet slushy. 33.4F gentle 1 to 1.5Mi s-.
  4. wdrag
    WOW... 25mm light orange is 1" melted in 12 hrs. still big. my experience, often the big qpf has sleet and rain. In this case... i dont have much to look at but I'm wary of ALL snow in 1.5" qpf unless clearly the soundings support. You all are on top of this. Hang on... even if we don't get top 20 snow, some folks on LI and NJ are probably going to wish it was powder. It just looks a little dangerous to me with sleet slashing through the air on gusty winds or wet snow pasting on the NJ coast and parts of LI. 6" 32-33F wet snow is my threshold for widespread power outages. It first begins with 4" wet snow. Talk after 4p.
  5. wdrag
    I think everyone up to I80 will mix but this is yet to be determined. It's going to be a mess I95 in Nj and LI after the initial thump. Maybe UVV will overcome but whenever, the dry slot arrives, then I think thereafter we look at sleet and small flake snow...if indeed the dry slot arrives with maybe a chance of a little bigger flakes on the swan song Thursday sunrise or after. Again, this presumes a sNJ coast hugger overnight Wednesday before shifting eastward. Let's see the EC, and really some more model cycles. Future NAM has to backdown too if we go with the CMC/RGEM/GFS. Plenty of unknowns. Patience
  6. wdrag
    watch for sleet LI and s of I80 which is treated like 10 to 1 in the snow ratios...bad news for southern edge if sleet develops. Those 10 to 1 ratios won't work with sleet involved... slash by ~2/3rds once the sleet develops.
  7. wdrag
    Euro EPS has been very very steady through 06z..just ever so slight southward drift. If the GFS is to win this southward track, the UK and NAM need to come south, and then the EC will join. 12z UK may have some precursor trend soon?? For now...stay the course on everything... allow NWS office and WPC collaborative processes work up the 330PM updated graphics. Ensembles can steady the model disparity. A snow storm is coming to the northeast an impressive 6 hour thump Wednesday evening-night.
  8. wdrag
    Wantage NJ. Almost 5/8 mi. coming down pretty good ... small to moderate sized wet flakes. 33.3F at 1115A
  9. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 0.5" total now and 0.1-0.2 slush on pavement..some pavement starting to get slightly slippery. If this keeps up thru 1P, they'll need a little salt on the rural roads above 700 feet.
  10. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 0.3" at 10A - continuing 3/4s- 3.3. acscums on trees/roofs, grass but only sketchy on some untreated pavement.
  11. wdrag
    Wantage: 3/4S- decent flakes. I see that nice bright band on the backside of this event just se of BGM... Some of that has to be pretty decent snowflake size.
  12. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 4sw: Had mostly r- and some ip- for about 90 minutes but all snow (2mi) now. 0.2" total so far...its wet snow out there but didn't clear. we'll see what we have at 1P. 33.1F. pave wet. 942A
  13. wdrag
    Don't give up on snow in NYC this afternoon. Could get interesting for an hour two around 1-3P.
  14. wdrag
    Let's wait this out... I need to NAM to be more realistically south and closer to EC or GFS. It cant keep trying to drill big snow into the southern Adirondacks.
  15. wdrag
    Hi! Gradient collaborated grids that see adjacent offices and work with together with WPC. So qpf, whether its all snow and the associated mixing ratios dictate snow amounts. These are put together sometimes before new guidance that you and i see and sometimes hastily because of the eastern time zone and 330-4PM/AM deadlines (deadline office dependent). I'd take the lower numbers of the range as a start, and focus on the axis. I want to reserve comment on anything beyond what we see here, til 430 or 5P. Too many models and interps...
  16. wdrag
    Mostly rain here since around 810A in Wantage. at least 0.2" snowfall so far. 33.1F. roads wet.
  17. wdrag
    Need to wait til 4P....thanks
  18. wdrag
    NWS collaborated snow amounts in case this hasn't posted yet... only thru 7A Thursday. Temps will probably be generally 20-25F during the entire snowstorm across nw NJ/seNYS/ne PA and CT.
  19. wdrag
    Tables for JFK/LGA I think attached. Have looked at two day (crossover with the midnight climate... tougher for top 20 depending on where all snow but, MPO seems a best fit... others may too-dependent on track and mix potential. Won't post the two day til late today or tomorrow if that still applies.
  20. wdrag
    First tenth of an inch in Wantage as sleet has changed to snow. Pavement getting slimy and very slippery on wood. 34F. ground white.
  21. wdrag
    I'll add the data shortly... ONE error on my part ... this data is I think driven by calendar day. I may add some two day totals to bring better perspective. Even so, I think top 20 is possible by midnight Wednesday night. It does appear to me a lot of the big FGEN 1-3"/hr has to be before midnight or earlier for LI/I80) south... unless the storm slows and I don't think that will happen. However, I80 ned including LI... i would not be surprised at lagging bands of 1/2MI Snow rolling southeastward after sunrise Thursday as the back side of the comma head moves east (getting what ne PA has all night)--this presuming the EPS is 80% accurate.
  22. wdrag
    Wantage snow and sleet mix east 722A and temp now 34.5. Tinge of white on the roofs.
  23. wdrag
    You'll get there...first a mix of sleet and rain then wet snow and sleet. Not sure if you can accumulate more than an inch or 2 by 2P.
  24. wdrag
    ice pellets at 644A in Wantage NJ
  25. wdrag
    Few small flakes in Wantage NJ.. temps 34-36F around here.
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