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Now this should be my last post til morning. 23z HRRR for Noon Monday... max gusts thru that time. NJ coast is cranking in Ocean County, ridges in nw NJ starting to hit 50 and NYC-LI etc should start hitting 50 MPH in parts of the area around 1230-130P. Rereviewing guidance tomorrow morning. By then we'll probably have a pretty good idea if svr broke out in the Carolinas and if ORF is up to 35KT at 6AM. This will be a very fast developer. HRRR has 89KT e of Ocean County NJ at 17z. Seems 10 kt too high. That could affect the sfc gusts... but In think the idea is here... intensifying as it moves closer to LI...

NWS has to make the call... guidance I'm seeing says 50 - 60 MPH and multiple hours out there, iso 70 possible. Criteria for HWA sustained ASOS -NWS accepted mesonet wind 40 MPH or NWS accepted gust 58 MPH , or damage. Damage appears likely to me for parts of LI, but that's just my take on this evolution. I see the 21z op HRRR is starting to push gusts 45-55 MPH at 10 AM into s NJ. This is probably my last post til 630AM Monday.

We'll monitor with some interest the 5th-7th... especially hilly nw suburbs... as all have said, doesn't look good for this one in the city. One event at a time...

EC gusts 'roughly' as depicted... by the 12z/29 EC... these numbers are in knots..too small for my aging eyes to clearly read but it looks like lots of 50s coastal NJ into New England. Continues to look to me like LI CT hit hardest but if a low top line of storms develops in the wake of the warm frontal 2 hr torrents during midday, then the mid-late afternoon convective gusts could be damaging in e PA/NJ/and possibly se NYS.Not a lock but but worthy of monitoring. Also fwiw...to maintain self discipline... i use these at MPH instead of knots, trying to be conservative. The potential is there for these in knots but sounding's isothermal lapse rate is always a concern for suppressing potential. Also..fwiw... and probably too high, but I see the EC has 15-20" of snow near CLE by Wednesday morning and quite a large area of 6+ snow DEPTH in OH. Interesting. We'll see what happens. Off line til 530PM ish.

Nog much change in the D2 SPC update... the reasoning below. ...Chesapeake Bay vicinity to Coastal Southern New England... Instability will quickly diminish with northward extent as deeper boundary layer moisture lessens and cooler surface temperatures are forecast. Nevertheless, a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings in conjunction with strong southerly shear. Forcing for ascent will also be maximized across the area, and low-topped bowing line segments will be possible in the high-shear, low-CAPE environment. Locally damaging gusts will be the main concern with this activity. A shallow low level inversion will likely limit tornado activity, however, this limitation could be overcome near the surface low and along the warm front, and a tornado or two can not be ruled out.

Adding one 00z/29 GEFS RMOP graphic on next weekend... door not closed. Confidence on trough axis but not the trough strength .. note confluent flow to our north. While it may be rain here, I'm looking for a decent storm to eventually re-evolve northward.

Adding one operational HRRR graphic for max gust...note 50-60+ LI... less western NJ/interior se NYS. Also the HRRRX is about 3 kt less than the 06z version... still pounds LI CT and se New England even a 70 E LI.

Excellent supporting model guidance Bluewave! Still can be complications and lots of AMWX folks saying, what wind? . SSE or se wind for the first burst. The late afternoon burst might be bigger. Need more guidance from the 12z cycle but I ado think we're on track for a fairly substantial event.

Yes... good for BOX. IF svr occurs Carolinas overnight or tomorrow morning, then redevelops VA/MD midday... going to be widespread minor or greater power outages Monday-Tuesday inclusive of what I think is probably coming for parts of OH, w PA with wet snow. Still tbd the intensities but I saw the GFS has been getting closer to the EC on pressure in recent cycles. Yes on soundings as you note.. lets see how good the guidance is. Suspect the presentations posted MAY be 5MPH too high, but not much more than that and they could verify. I don't know how your house behaves, but I'm also at about 750' in Wantage NJ and I'm thinking gust 32 possibly 45 MPH if convection rolls thru to enhance 3P-6P. Probably offline til 10AM ish.

Good Sunday morning all, Preparing for a wind event near or just a little under November 15, I think is worthwhile. Model consensus still lacking... but from what I can gather, I'd prepare for two bursts of 45-55 knot gusts along the NJ coast, LI snd CT, with 40-50 kt gusts in the interior of NJ/se NYS where ridges seem a best fit for strongest gusts there. IF a narrow line of showers/tstms moves east late in the across the forum... damage will be accentuated. The low level sounding will be critical for transfer...even so I think there will be 50 Knots of wind ~500 feet above us, available for transfer with a 70-80kt 850 jet over LI Monday afternoon. I expect peak gust ~ 45 kt for many of the NYC/LI ASOS airports in the window of Noon-6PM. Thunder should occur in parts of our forum. Here is some of the graphical guidance... What we need to look for to avoid damaging wind Monday, is a DECREASE in this guidance and NO shallow convective line in later modeling. Right now the 06z/29 FOUS has BL winds of 34kt and 27 kt for LGA and PHL respectively Monday (36 kt at BOS). This is very similar to that of November 15. I'm adding the last PGH of this mornings SPC D2 outlook for our area. Then some graphics: a couple from the SPC HREF (MINIMUM) wind gust potential in MPH, for 3PM Monday. The 00z/29 GEFS gust greater than 50 MPH is added for Monday afternoon--impressive! Then some experimental HRRRX 80 meter wind guidance and 10 meter max wind gust potential in knots, at various times Monday afternoon. The HRRRX seems a little strong but it's possible and worth keeping in mind. Farther north (from the Delmarva into coastal southern New England), the primary severe threat will be later into the afternoon as the triple point moves across the region. Low probability potential exists for the development of a narrow and shallow line of convective along the cold front extending southward from the triple point. Even less instability is anticipated here than farther south and any convection will likely become elevated above a low-level stable layer, but the very strong wind fields suggest than even a shallow, elevated storm may be able to produce a strong gust at the surface.

fwiw... EC starting to sit on a similar Monday-Tuesday event for this next weekend in our area, including similar event snowfalls... which if the EC is correct will offer spotty 2 feet in a part of west or northwest OHIO. One event at a time... I want to see how this works out here on Monday before starting something for next weekend.

Should know more tomorrow morning... guidance continues to punch us up Monday as the system just about reaches max intensity in its passage through our area. Some of the SPC short range guidance now has mean gusts ORF area 12z Monday 40-45 MPH really seeped rapidly northeast and intensify. Not much else to add for now, except the EC is going for quite a substantial snow event (8+") north and west OHIO, then eventually on Tuesday to a lesser extent, spreading in its dying embers, across northeast OHIO into nw PA.

If this 12z/28 image at 54 hours verifies... going to be a 1-2 hour deluge in NYC... most of the rain for this event might occur in this transitory very strong FGEN somewhere between Noon ish and 3P. Also, the opportunity for wind gust turnover-transfer.

1135A post: FOUS is down, favoring e CT/se New England with best bashing of wind gusts... however, R# at LGA to about 930 MB all afternoon and NAM 3k 50KT down to about 960MB suggests to me, that if we get short lines of convection as modeled by the 12z/28 3K NAM ripping ne along I95 at 45-50 kt from Philly area, that we will have wind damage in and near NYC, eastward and northeastward. Again... if modeling weakens then this will have been a brief windy dousing. As of now, I continue to expect everything outlined in the topic and previously. Tomorrow morning we should have more guidance that I'm looking for but is only short term. May post again around 5P...otherwise for sure tomorrow morning 7A.

Good morning. The lower level jet is strongest along the coast (often the case) and transfer may be diminished by the the isothermal or even inverted sounding in the lowest 2000 feet. HOWEVER, if there is a meso low on this front as it crosses PA/NJ... that will induce 50+ gusts northward into NYS. The EC transfer is a little less the past several cycles than previous but still says 45-50 MPH gusts for NYS ne PA. So, the collaborated max gusts as offered are a good start for a conservative message. I see PHI raised the Poconos in comparison to nearby offices and that should be a good move. Spreaking for myself only, I'm a high ender preparer.... I look for the big problem. Doesn't always work out. I factor in SVR gust potential and raising the guidance so EM's etc knew my-our thinking of potential and imo, I think this is better preparation visually. I just don't like being caught flatfooted. Preparation imo, is very important for poise, provided those advance messages are reliably correct-no 50 50 chance of being right every time issued. Thanks for your post. I may be away from the forum at times today-decorating but will try to update forenoon or late this afternoon.

Good Saturday morning everyone, Soon we'll be coming into guidance that should more accurate gauge the chances of the upcoming reality. I'll be looking for FOUS BL winds of 28 KT at PHL and 30 KT at LGA for a likelihood of wind event occurrence (damaging wind). If the NAM is less than that, it may be a typical wind advisory event-except for thunderstorms that could easily cause damage. OKX early Saturday HWO now has 50-70 MPH wind gust mentioned for LI. SPC D3 appended below... marginal risk into NJ but not LI IF a line of thunderstorms does materialize, I think we're going to have a substantial event. Modeling continues to favor some thunder... marginal instability-sbcape and high shear with 70-75 KT modeled at 850 MB for LI, forenoon Monday through the afternoon by all models, except the weaker GFS. The Nov 15 event looked stronger to me... i worry about transfer of 50kt+ winds down from 925 MB. Richardson # says it will happen, the sounding to me looks a little isothermal, so no guarantee. I'd prepare for scattered power outages NJ coast-LI-CT Monday afternoon-evening. We'll have more tools to use by late tonight to help ascertain to confidence. This following statement could be overdone, especially if 00z-06z GFS verifies, but my guess is grid displayed "minor" power outages Monday into Tuesday from NC to our forum area and even back to Ohio/nw PA where wet snow acscums of 6+" occurs in a few areas. Note also: a chance of flurries or a slight covering of snow Tuesday in the distant nw suburbs (ne PA, extreme nw NJ, se NYS, nw CT hills) as the trough axis moves east over us Tuesday afternoon...and I'm suspicious of a dry Tuesday. I could see minor widespread 0.1-0.3" QPF in our forum Tuesday, in addition to the WPC Monday forecast now available (WPC has us in marginal risk excessive Monday) Added this mornings D3 SPC discussion, and 00z/28 GEFS wind probabilities for gusts over 50 MPH..and this I think is conservative. The NAM is stronger. ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA/COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes appear possible on Monday from parts of Florida and coastal Georgia into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... A large-scale upper trough should evolve into a closed low over the Midwest/OH Valley and central Appalachians on Monday. A mid-level vorticity maximum embedded within this upper trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic through Monday afternoon. A deep surface low should likewise develop northeastward in tandem with this vorticity maximum. A cold front trailing from this surface low will likely sweep eastward across much of the FL Peninsula and the East Coast through the day. A warm front extending northeastward from the surface low will probably make some northward progress across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Monday afternoon as well. A line of low-topped showers/storms along or just ahead of the cold front should be ongoing at the start of the period from near the surface low in WV/western VA southward to northern FL. Although instability may remain modest across most of the warm sector ahead of this line, generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be enough to support weak surface-based instability through the day. A very strong (50-60+ kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet should be present over the central/eastern Carolinas and southern VA Monday morning, and this feature is forecast to shift northward across the Mid-Atlantic through the day. Given the strength of the low-level flow and sufficient, albeit weak, forecast instability, strong to damaging winds may occur with storms that either persist along the cold front or develop ahead of it over the open warm sector. A couple tornadoes also appear possible, mainly across parts of eastern SC/NC/VA to the Delmarva Peninsula and perhaps NJ in associated with the low-level jet and potentially greater low-level moisture and instability. Even so, there is too much uncertainty regarding sufficient destabilization to include higher severe probabilities for now. Farther south, low-level convergence along the cold front and deep-layer shear are both forecast to be somewhat weaker across coastal GA and the FL Peninsula. Still, there may be isolated strong/gusty winds with any storms through Monday afternoon.

First, I want to thank all the posters insights on modeling from LR to climate stats. Very helpful perspectives and I learn from this. Thank you! On Dec 4-6: No topic since considerable uncertainty ranges from 00z-06z OP runs of major snowstorms from the the Missouri Valley to the northeast USA and/or all rain. And the 850MB inflow is not as strong as that of this coming Monday, but broader and longer-which serves well for heavy precip event. I root for the 06z GFS op... but... its D9-10, not in my window of confidence. GEFS RMOP has a positive tilt trough over the eastern USA with uncertainty, while it is categorically confident of the 500MB ridge axised n-s ~115W. The one change in my thinking from previous days... a decent storm event is coming between Dec 4-6. What it is?

Good Friday morning everyone with interest for Monday-Tuesday, No change in topic as originally outlined. This event will probably be a little less wind impact than that of Nov 15 (a little ess speed shear-less wind 850 MB) but still be significant for some of us. HSLC continues to be my concern with 45-50kt of wind at 950MB, 70-80 kt at 850MB during Monday afternoon, sfc dew points probably rising to ~60. Models already grabbing about 45-50kt of wind at LGA via NAM/GFS R# at 18z Monday with maximum wind poised for LI/CT for 3P-9P, a little sooner NJ coast. Interior can still get a burst of damaging wind but that is less confidently outlooked due to a possible isothermal-inversion in the boundary layer sounding n of I80?? GFS has no sfc cape, EC minimal Sfc Cape. EC KI mid 30s and lightning still advertised. Wind gusts 45-55MPH with isolated G60-65 MPH possible. Rainfall: see WPC. Since this is mainly an 8-16 hour event, doubt if we can reach 5" unless the front slows it's eastward progress Monday evening, which is possible, since the sfc low will probably have reached it's max intensity in PA (992MB?) by that time and a lot of energy is driving north instead of east. If the front were to slow, then the extreme east portion of the area would be vulnerable to approaching the 5"- but not likely right now. Power outages: While not expected to be generally as much as Nov 15... still expecting power outages. On the grid Minor or moderate event. Snow: slightest chance western high terrain suburbs later Tuesday as the trough axis slides eastward? Power outage snow possible for a few parts of central Indiana into northern-western OH Monday afternoon if GFS/EC and ensembled modeled snow at 32F turns out correct. I didn't spend much time on the Ohio valley. As we get to Saturday--- monitoring 3K NAM winds/R# as well as the FOUS BL winds at LGA will be helpful and of course local NWS offices statements... and SPC/WPC guidance. For me, the main focus is HSLC convective wind event Monday afternoon -evening. Wish you a super day! 651A/27

651PM Thanksgiving eve update: No change to topic except I think the system is running 6 hours faster than when originally posted... seemingly favoring worst of the wind Noon-9PM Monday. Will reevalute Friday morning. fwiw... the GEFS now has 75% chance of 50+ MPH gusts Montauk. That's larger than I saw in the GEFS for the 15th. Have a good night.

Wont be commenting on this thread til after 530P. Still looks good to me based on some of the 12z op modeling. EC is my focus late today,. Happy Thanksgiving---

60F in Wantage abd p/.s. 0.38 total.

We shall see what happens.... so far this fall longer range modeling considerations in the 6-10 day period (per topics) have been pretty good. For the storm early next week... see the measure of predictability. Notice the high prob reds on 500 MB trough axis etc. Quite impressive. Doesn't look as confidently stated at 72 hours (before) not after the storm mid week.,

Just too early for me... but I think just a wee bit less for us on LI but I see widespread minor or worse power outages Monday Ohio Valley-east coast... provided the EC continues with it's closing scenario and 80kt 850 MB inflow Delmarva northward to LI. That would occupy lots of utilities. W Reality check... I always worry talking so much confidence so far in advance... something can always go very wrong. My confidence stems from large scale ensembles, and recent modeling track record 6-10 days in advance.

agreed and closer than yesterdays 12z cycle. still concerned about dominance of Mondays storm... recovery. However, interesting that the GFS and CMC continue on it...CMC GGEM in fact sooooo far west, keeping us warm again. Interesting times with transitioning teleconnections. See blue wave below.