wdrag

Good Saturday morning everyone, It appears the 5 day outlook is still on track. GFS via it's 06z/7 cycle is starting come back to another event late Sunday. A few graphics are added to put things in perspective. The differences in the GFS/EC-GGEM groups for Sunday appear to be related to the ejecting of a strong shortwave out of the West Coast trough toward the Great Lakes-Northeast USA...the latter EC-GGEM are stronger. Also, fwiw, the EC operationally is leaving behind Eta's 850 vort near PNS Fl late this coming week. For now, that is uncertain, but a cyclonic circulation of sorts seems to be left behind in the northern GOM next Friday. IF that occurs, you can count on another brief period of near 2" PWAT coming into the NYC forum at the end of next weekend. That would cue my interest after being primed Wed-Thu (possibly with a little more rain on Friday as well). So, I envision a rainy period coming Wed-Thu, Sunday, possibly Friday as well. Timing on those days less than certain though am very confident of Wednesday into Thursday 1-3", as a start with near 2" PWAT hanging around and opportunity for more than 3" in central NJ. Even so, this first event should be below FFG with only a small region just w of NYC vulnerable to flooding. 00z/7 cycle WPC 7 day qpf is added, plus the GEFS prob of 3+" in 36 hrs and GEFS plumes for ISP for the entire 7 day period...showing the range of possibilities as seen in the 00z/7 GEFS.

Continuing prior posts for multiple significant rainfall events Wed-Sun, despite two successive GFS OP (12z/18z) runs of nil on Sunday there 15th. GFS seems completely at odds with the GGEM and EC op, as well as GEFS thru the 18z/6 cycle today an'd the EPS from 12z/6 whereby it appears our NYC forum will generally average at least 1-3" in that 5 day period, perhaps quite a bit more in spots provided two significant 1+" rainfall events occur.

Good Friday morning all, Interest continues for tropical interaction in the NYC forum Wednesday-Sunday (11-15). For now, per ensembles and multi 00z/6 operational modeling, favored tropical (best risk PWAT briefly 2") days are Wed-Thu, but now Friday is a possibility too... with the Sunday 15th event maybe just a fast moving cold front with bigger PWAT just south? No matter: GOM cyclonic circulation PWAT is going to make it up here, mostly likely Wed-Thu, with a possible revisit Friday, or still even possibly Sunday. I've added WPC QPF issued early today for Wed-Thu, also tropical ensemble tracks for Eta (EPS, GEFS), which tend to show recurvature somewhere between NC-New England (IF it remains a transitioning wave) around Friday-Saturday. Just have to wait this out, but I'm pretty sure of one, .... possibly 2 batches of 1-3" rainfall here in our forum between Wed-Sunday.

Hi! As of the 12z/5 cycle... there is a potentially interesting 1-2 punch coming to the mid Atlantic states as alluded to in the topic. Unsure how much of either will strike the NYC forum but odds favor at a minimum, beneficial rains of 1-3" by next Sunday night (5 day threat period), possibly twice that much if we get both opportunities. Getting two sizable rains with a tropical connection (PWAT near 2") in 5 days is not common up here, at least to my knowledge. The first for Wed-Thu is a tropical connection more related to the GOM cyclonic flow pulling high PWAT air northwest then north from Fl. through the Carolinas and into the northeast; the second for next weekend, a bit more tenuous - less certain, but is more Eta direct. It's primary impact could be a narrow miss south. For now; ensembles have decent rainfall coming. the 12/5 52 member NAEFS poses the probability of 2+" of rain by next Sunday night the 15th. The prob as seen from the legend is 35-45%. Not too bad, for essentially a rain risk period 6-10 days in advance. We shall see if we get glancing shots, or more direct involvement. For now, I think the odds are pretty good for 1-3" of rain next Wed-Thu, greater uncertainty for the weekend following. Continuing to monitor modeling- and probably wont have much more to add til this weekend.

No--sorry.. first I want to see moisture get up here. Will let the modeling try to draw some consensus by Sunday afternoon and by then we might know more about a hybrid or something else, including track/size.

This is potentially a failed topic 7-12 days in advance, but Eta and/or Theta remnant moisture or the actual ET transitioning leftover tropical wave has a chance of advancing into our NYC forum area either midweek, or next weekend. Reasoning is based on an ensembled strong WAR near Bermuda forcing any Tropical systems that enter the GOM early next week, inland over the eastern USA, then northward and eventually east-northeast by the time it reaches our latitude. The 52 member NAEFS and WPC have qpf in the eastern USA by the middle of next week. Additionally, there is a substantial RRQ of the upper level jet during mid week over se Canada, and then next weekend it is modeled to redevelop southward into New England. RR Quads of the upper level jet are favorable for generating heavy qpf near a surface front with PWAT over 1.6". This is not saying it will occur... but we may find it's worthwhile having a topic to discuss our views/supporting guidance as we advance in time. IF....IFFF...the remnants of the tropical system miss the first opportunity to accelerate northeastward the middle of next week, then a colder scenario could unfold next weekend, but that colder scenario would be the less likely, threading the needle, so to speak. For now: I'm thinking 1-3" rainfall opportunity either next Wednesday or Thursday (already 1" 12z/4 GEFS/EPS) or maybe again next weekend. So... this is just a topic that may come in handy based on the idea that the main trough in the USA the next two weeks is in the west with a strong ridge over the western Atlantic and east coast. 403P/4

One more wrap on yesterdays wind event, and the news story not making national head lines... 6 days later. First: NYS, NJ, CT in our forum are have less than 6000 meters out (about 15,000 customers) max in our forum. Look at Oklahoma... over 120,000 meters still out 6 days after their ice storm (nearly 7% of the state). That is pretty serious.

NWS reports. Timing- most occurred 9A-Noon. I think this is important... someone died I think yesterday morning with a tree fall. Targeting timing of event's is pretty important, imo. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 827 PM EST MON NOV 02 2020 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS, COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS, SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY ALSO IS AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC ***********************PEAK WIND GUST*********************** LOCATION MAX WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS GUST OF MPH MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... GREENWICH 52 1133 AM 11/02 CWOP BRIDGEPORT 49 830 AM 11/02 CWOP BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 43 1154 AM 11/02 ASOS DANBURY AIRPORT 40 1200 PM 11/02 ASOS NORWALK 39 1016 AM 11/02 CWOP STAMFORD 36 1115 AM 11/02 CWOP BRIDGEPORT 36 106 PM 11/02 NOS-NWLON ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... 2 WSW CHESTER 36 1155 AM 11/02 AWOS ...NEW HAVEN COUNTY... NEW HAVEN 55 1045 AM 11/02 CWOP MILFORD 41 137 PM 11/02 CWOP MERIDEN AIRPORT 41 1235 PM 11/02 ASOS LIGHTHOUSE POINT 40 1134 AM 11/02 WXFLOW HAMMONASSET 40 1120 AM 11/02 WXFLOW NEW HAVEN AIRPORT 39 1237 PM 11/02 ASOS WATERBURY AIRPORT 36 1159 AM 11/02 AWOS HAMDEN 35 1141 AM 11/02 CWOP ...NEW LONDON COUNTY... GROTON AIRPORT 46 1235 PM 11/02 ASOS LISBON 38 1103 AM 11/02 CWOP NEW LONDON; CT 37 1242 PM 11/02 NOS-NWLON LYME 36 1200 PM 11/02 CWOP NEW JERSEY ...BERGEN COUNTY... TETERBORO AIRPORT 43 1242 PM 11/02 ASOS HASBROUCK HEIGHTS 35 1144 AM 11/02 CWOP ...ESSEX COUNTY... CALDWELL 47 857 AM 11/02 ASOS ...HUDSON COUNTY... BAYONNE 44 936 AM 11/02 WXFLOW ...PASSAIC COUNTY... RINGWOOD 39 1210 PM 11/02 RAWS 3 ENE WEST MILFORD 37 139 PM 11/02 AWOS ...UNION COUNTY... NEWARK AIRPORT 45 1155 AM 11/02 ASOS NEW YORK ...KINGS COUNTY... SHEEPSHEAD BAY 36 901 AM 11/02 CWOP ...NASSAU COUNTY... MERRICK 45 946 AM 11/02 CWOP 1 NW UNIONDALE (WEAT 38 1150 AM 11/02 MESOWEST SYOSSET 37 1130 AM 11/02 CWOP 1 SW MANHASSET (WEAT 37 1100 AM 11/02 MESOWEST MUTTONTOWN 36 1201 PM 11/02 CWOP VALLEY STREAM 35 1156 AM 11/02 CWOP ...NEW YORK COUNTY... CENTRAL PARK 43 856 AM 11/02 ASOS ...ORANGE COUNTY... STEWART AIRPORT 46 1245 PM 11/02 AWOS 1 WSW MONTGOMERY 44 1058 AM 11/02 AWOS NEWBURGH 41 136 PM 11/02 CWOP USMA 38 1255 PM 11/02 RAWS ...QUEENS COUNTY... NYC/LA GUARDIA 53 1006 AM 11/02 ASOS NYC/JFK AIRPORT 47 1051 AM 11/02 ASOS JACKSON HEIGHTS 46 1007 AM 11/02 CWOP BREEZY POINT 41 1143 AM 11/02 WXFLOW ...RICHMOND COUNTY... 2 SE ELIZABETH 48 1000 AM 11/02 NDBC ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... STONY BROOK 64 1004 AM 11/02 CWOP EATONS NECK 62 1120 AM 11/02 WXFLOW FARMINGDALE AIRPORT 56 855 AM 11/02 ASOS GREAT GULL ISLAND 55 117 PM 11/02 WXFLOW SHIRLEY AIRPORT 54 321 PM 11/02 ASOS WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT 52 940 AM 11/02 ASOS SOUTHOLD 49 616 PM 11/02 CWOP ISLIP AIRPORT 48 910 AM 11/02 ASOS BLUE POINT 46 1145 AM 11/02 WXFLOW WEST GILGO BEACH 46 130 PM 11/02 CWOP FIRE ISLAND CG 45 939 AM 11/02 WXFLOW FISHERS ISLAND AIRPO 45 129 PM 11/02 WXFLOW ORIENT 45 1031 AM 11/02 CWOP GREAT SOUTH BAY 45 920 AM 11/02 WXFLOW ORIENT 44 1203 PM 11/02 CWOP EASTPORT 44 958 AM 11/02 CWOP MECOX BAY 41 829 AM 11/02 WXFLOW NAPEAGUE 41 812 AM 11/02 WXFLOW STONY BROOK 41 831 AM 11/02 CWOP N. BABYLON 39 845 AM 11/02 CWOP MELVILLE 39 1119 AM 11/02 CWOP BLUE POINT 38 901 AM 11/02 CWOP SHIRLEY 36 1007 AM 11/02 CWOP CUTCHOGUE 35 248 PM 11/02 CWOP TERRYVILLE 35 149 PM 11/02 CWOP FARMINGVILLE 35 1202 PM 11/02 CWOP WEST ISLIP 35 1009 AM 11/02 CWOP NORTHPORT 35 856 AM 11/02 CWOP EAST HAMPTON 35 1135 AM 11/02 AWOS ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... WHITE PLAINS AIRPORT 53 1029 AM 11/02 ASOS TAPPAN ZEE LIGHT 14 50 1036 AM 11/02 WXFLOW ARMONK 35 1253 PM 11/02 CWOP ...Middlesex County... Perth Amboy 48 MPH 1147 AM 11/02 WXFLOW ...Monmouth County... Belmar Farmdale 49 MPH 1222 PM 11/02 AWOS ...Ocean County... Beach Haven 52 MPH 1001 AM 11/02 CWOP Lakehurst NAS 47 MPH 0950 AM 11/02 AWOS Rutgers 47 MPH 1102 AM 11/02 WXFLOW Island Heights 45 MPH 1209 PM 11/02 CWOP Tuckerton 45 MPH 1254 PM 11/02 WXFLOW ...Sussex County... Wallkill River Nwr 46 MPH 0926 AM 11/02 RAWS

Good afternoon everyone: I've spot checked the NJ/NYS mesonets, and other than 1 or 2 locations where the max gust was 1 MPH higher than the Noon post (sub advisory), the wind has since diminished in most of NYS-NJ and soon will in CT. Power outages in NYS and NJ were also decreasing, a sign of repairs and less wind since midday. PHI has expired their Advisory. I'm thinking there will be a complete LSR summary sometime tonight or tomorrow. Otherwise, what you already saw for this wind event, is about it. Unsure what more I can add unless anyone on the forum has a request.

Here's a 1215PM data update...certainly not all encompassing. mesonets from NYS and NJ for max gusts today, power outages... generally minor but significant. 43 MPH at my home in Wantage around 1033AM. Seems to be slowly decreasing here. On the power outage map... note Oklahoma... I think thats the ice storm impact from the middle of last week. The wind advisory LSR report I'm sure will be much more complete at 6PM. May not post again til mid or late afternoon,

Max gusts 40 its or greater past hr or so from FSU MOE survey. Plenty on the island 46-52 MPH. Excellent OKX-PHI wind advisory. KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KADW: Camp Springs / Andrews AFB, MD, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KBID: Block Island, Block Island State Airport, RI, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KCDW: Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KDCA: Reagan National Airport, DC, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KFOK: Westhampton Beach, NY, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KFRG: Farmingdale, Republic Airport, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KHFD: Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KILG: Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KISP: Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KJYO: Leesburg / Godfrey, VA, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KMDT: Harrisburg, Harrisburg Intl Arpt, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KMIV: Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMPO: Mount Pocono, PA, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KRDG: Reading, Reading Regional Airport, PA, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KRSP: Campd David, MD, United States [45kt, 23m/s]

Wind doing well in the city... here's todays NYS mesonet max wind gust map as of 945A. No new LSR reports out of OKX yet but undoubtedly there has to be some problems. NJ has 8300 customers out, and in addition my counties electric cooperative has 110 customers out. Multiply customers x 2.5 and you have an idea of the total # of people without power. So there are wind advisory impacts this morning. NY and PA have more out, a bit higher in the power grid minor category.

Gusts recently 47 MPH Queens, and higher terrain nw NJ. Power outages increasing NJ, PA, NYS. In the area I live, terrain above me. My max so far at 708A 37 MPH.I've not checked LSR's but undoubtedly there will have to be some trees/limbs/wires down.

Nothing new to report as of 720AM... all gusts below 45 MPH at this time in our area, at this time and no new LSR reports this morning, so far. Closest 50MPH since 630 am is Camp David MD. Coverings of new snow are occurring this morning on the high terrain west and north of NYC.

On the wind: Not much change from yesterday. To reach 40KT or greater (46 MPH), it's going to have to occur this morning between between now and Noon. Winds decrease significantly mid-late afternoon except the north shore of LI and LI eastern tip where near 46 MPH gusts may occur through 6PM, and even reoccur near dawn Tuesday. The 00z/2 EC ticked up slightly from yesterday... the HRRR, HRRRX and NAM profiles look the same as yesterday. Strongest winds should occur on the ridges where I think 50-55MPH will be occurring this morning. Catskill 'highest' peaks may be even stronger this afternoon. Be alert for moving debris, especially this morning. Cars, if outside, best parked safely and legally, away from trees. Snow: I84 high terrain a smattering of slight accumulation here and there this morning and again early Tuesday. Flurry risk almost to NYC this morning prior to 10AM, and again tomorrow morning 5-10AM. 505A/2

Quick early morning update with graphics of max gusts NYS, NJ, and local storm reports from last evening's frontal passage. Power outage map as well...all updated as of 410A. Power outages have decreased in PA since last evenings burst. Note all the power outages across the south...ZETA and ice storm from 4-5 days ago. Will review weather by 530A.

More current max wind updates. LGA recently 38 kt. Added NYS mesonet, NJ CLI net and LSR reports into NNJ. Probably my last report of this evening unless wind wakes me. 802P/1

I did not expect these reports in e PA late this Sunday afternoon, generally prior to 6P, and may have been associated just after the passage of the line of heavy showers. Here's a view of Local Storm Reports and max gusts NYS mesonet. NJ Max gusts not yet available. 711P/1

Per this afternoons NWS issuance of a wind advisory for Monday, have split the difference in the timing to keep it simple for our AMWX NYC forum. Confidence is somewhat less than yesterday to see more than isolated 46MPH advisory criteria reports and associated power outages from downed tree limbs, aided by many trees still partially leaved. Appears best chance for downward transfer of 45-max 60 MPH gusts is 6A-Noon, especially ne PA and I84 ridges through se NYS and CT in CAA with a gradual decrease in wind probable during mid and late afternoon. E tip of LI may also be more prone to gusts past 46MPH aided by the warm surrounding SST's. Positives are the Richardson # briefly "nearly" solid 0.25 (red) to 825MB and the associated steepest lapse rate with a decent nw flow gradient between deepening near 980MB low pressure in the Maritimes and 1035MB high pressure to our southwest. in the lower Mississippi Valley. Negatives: My experience that the FOUS displayed synoptic scale BL wind needs to equal or exceed 27kt on the coastal plain (LGA so far is modeled to be hovering with a max of BL wind of ~25-26kt), and a lack of strong pressure rises-subsidence-rapidly rising sfc based LI. Even the Richardson # is starting to show breaks. 12z/1 SPC HREF, 12z HRRRX, 18z HRRR and and 12z EC gusts seem predominately below 46 MPH, except the ridges. Added graphics to this topic a couple of 3KM NAM 18z/1 LGA time section graphics for Monday (Richardson #, Temperature and wind and RH tsections)... and a 3K NAM 18z/1 modeled sounding focused on 16z.

I didn't have the heart to start a wind topic for tomorrow. Just doesn't look quite strong enough to me, but I could be wrong. IF OKX/PHI start a wind advisory in our area, I'd add a topic but am not quite as keen on this being scattered 45+MPH except ridges and maybe the eastern tip of LI. Not much has changed in the modeling as far as I can tell from the 00z-06z/1 cycle. If power outages, then I would expect those to be mostly in the forested higher terrain, mainly between 7AM and 2 PM.

I like the idea of a few flurries around Monday morning - whether NYC CP ASOS sees--doubtful. Measurable on some of the I84 high terrain likely. mPing. Wind gusts Monday more commonly 35-40 MPH with isolated 50 MPH and a few associated power outages. Not quite convened we'll grab up to 825MB at 15z-16z Monday to transfer 45-50kt... so have not started a topic. Richardson # and timing of cold core passage at that time look favorable but NAM3k sounding looks like it's not quite as steep above 9000MB and so am hesitant to topic what might not be much of a damage event. Maybe guidance will change my mind late today... or if OKX issues a wind advisory, then I'll topic. For now, I think the best chance of damaging wind Monday morning is to the west and north of NYC. fwiw... late this afternoon, there might be an isolated gust 45 MPH e LI in showers. I did see the secondary line crossing the interior late today but not much wind flagged there...at least not yet. Maybe some hail? At 7A EST, have added this mean gust graphic in MPH from the SPC HREF. Not as impressive as I'd like to see. This is for 15z Monday (10AM).

FWIW: mixing forced turnover is currently modeled up to 850 MB Monday... Not commenting on anything for a topic til tonight.

A question: IFFFF ASOS sees a snowflake in CP Monday or Tuesday morning, will that qualify for shortest period? ?? AM tied up with lots of at home stuff so no starter post yet, but thinking of a damaging wind-power outage 50MPH wind gust post for the forum 15z-22z Monday. Just need more time. Am pretty sure we'll see some of this Monday (75% certainty on my part-hasty checks are my uncertainty). I do think scattered coatings of snow for parts of the higher I84 terrain Monday and possibly Tuesday morning with scattered snow showers. That too at least 75% certainty.

Good info impressions shared by all on Zeta. Kudos to Moderately Unstable for the observations stated in paragraph 1 of the Tuesday evening (p4) post. I didn't look at any Zeta posts midday Wednesday onward as the cat was out of the bag ,so to speak. Have attached this mornings remnant per outages... rather large 3-4 days after traversing the southeast USA. I also admit the ICON October 23 early missed assessment of cyclone phase in the central Gulf. A cycle or two later, all that was remedied by the multiple models while still hanging out toward the Yucatan.

Snowfall map attached for the event...should be pretty close. Some low temp maps from NJ and NYS this morning. Also two day water equivalent for our area. Max wind gust per spartan mesonet on LI was 40 and not shown. Minor coastal flooding occurred (possibly almost moderate in a few spots). My assessment is the NAM modeling for CAA changing rain to snow (and sleet southern edge) was the best. It also via previously forum advance posted temperature TSection had the 32F in NYC (big bust for GFS MOS). Overall EC was pretty consistent from the longer range on snowfall and NYC low temp and associated suburbs hard freeze. The GFS-P had a rather early but a bit too robust snow and storm signal for Friday morning. My tiny sample guess is the para will help improve the current GFS here in our area. Finally the Zeta 3-4 days later remnant power outages in the se USA, as of mid Saturday morning.