wdrag

Still pinging an ice pellet at 150pm in Hardyston NJ. Temp holding near 36 37

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point r-, few ice pellets 35.8/19.0. T ice pellets remaining on grassy areas.

Multiple obs of sleet=ice pellets from the Lehigh Valley to Newton and Wantage the past 20 minutes...inclusive of beginning here at the house at 10AM. T 37, TD 9. Flurries mixing in here in Wantage NJ.

Good Friday morning, not much snow or sleet expected today but prolonged icing on trees/wires and untreated pavements foreseen for elevations above 1000 feet this afternoon-evening, especially Sussex County NJ into se NYS. Another marginal event but its definitely going to be cold. Here in Wantage NJ at 740'MSL at 720AM its still 32F with a very low dew point. It's been snowing a bit in Hazleton and Lehighton PA and now icing in Williamsport.

Haven't seen all the numbers yet ...several 1-2": in the 40% or greater area, seemingly high terrain. NOHRSC website hasn't updated since the 8th so I can NOT use that evaluation tool, til they restart the 24 hour snowfall tool. From my view, this ensemble probabilistic and the operational snow depth products frame expectations, much better than the old methodologies including rudimentary 10 to 1 snowfall ratios. NWS has ability to blend multiple snow ratio guidance into one reasonable product, every 6 hours, from which forecasters can run snow fall tools, based on their probabilities for snow and hourly qpf in the 6 hour periods in question. This applies to any snowfall forecasts from anyone. I just think this probabilistic guidance is getting harder to beat day in-day out. If you can't beat them, join em and essentially be a darn good interpreter-communicator of upcoming scenarios including IMPACT.

Good Sunday morning everyone, Some thoughts. A)I'm aware of the horrendous ECMWF 2m temp bust for NYC middle of last week, including my own going for 6F in NYC if more than 3" of snow on the ground in CP for Thu morning. Terribly wrong. EC and myself had a problem on the 2nd night extreme cold forecast for CHI for Jan 31 as well. Room for improvement in these potential extreme situations via 2M temp forecasts (exclusive to model output statistics). Now to what I think are more positive potential outcomes. Seems like a window of opportunity for a coastal snow event March 19-20 per trough location and max departure from normal 500mb heights on both 00z/10 EPS and 06z/10 GEFS with modeled closed surface low pres off the mid Atlc coast and 24 hr pcpn trends. At least its an opportunity, even something near the 25th-26th.Maybe something to monitor in the coming days, whether its too little too late? The 19th has been flagged for several days in the broadly reviewed ensembles, I think as others have noted herein. I do not think my area of Wantage NJ will stop at our seasonal snowfall of 35.4", because we've not yet dealt with bigger elevation "only" early spring wet snow events that sometimes occur in April. The following may be old news but I want to reiterate, as I've just spent the last two months looking very closely at snowfall guidance. I also attached yesterdays ~0830z/9 probabilistic ensemble image for 1" or greater snowfall. MUCH MUCH better than some of the algorithms used by the websites that we use, inclusive of EPS and GEFS ensembles in mixed precip events and also used in the op models across the board. I think these are using more rudimentary conversion schemes (10 to 1). These mixed precip marginal temp situations suggest to me it is better to use the available operational POSITIVE SNOW DEPTH change as a conservative bottom number for snow-sleet accumulations. I think you'll like the POS Snow Depth change, especially in situations that occur frequently here, which is above freezing layers aloft limiting dendrite growth, and of course with temps are at or above freezing at the surface. Certainly gives me a better handle on pavement accums, which is crucial for transportation. Hopefully this is not old news and is useful for review, including anyone going back in the archives. The other thing I've noticed HRRR snowfall is useful (not referring to the sometimes available HRRX variable density snowfall). 1003A/10 So far, I've only found 1 or 2 reports of more than 1" of snow in ne PA, near where the 40-50% probability was, ditto se NYS. Otherwise s of I84... generally less than 1" total. added 1005A/10

Good morning all from Wantage NJ 8s High Point. I'll check CoCoRAHS and PNS's for further reports. Per prior, we had 0.5" sleet-snow-sleet 325A-~&A. Since, we've had some freezing rain with a glaze on all untreated wooden surfaces at a sensor temp of 32.4. I estimate the glaze as less than 1/tenth inch radial. Three images are attached. One of the glaze, and a second of the snow sleet mix. I also attached yesterdays ~0830z/9 probabilistic ensemble image for 1" or greater snowfall. MUCH better than some of the algorithms used by the websites that we use, inclusive of ensembles which I think are more rudimentary in their conversion schemes (10 to 1). I think in these situations it is better to use the available operational POSITIVE SNOW DEPTH change as a conservative bottom number for snow-sleet accumulations. I'll repost this on the March banter. I think you'll like the POS S Depth change, especially in situations that occur frequently which is above freezing layers aloft limiting dendrite growth, and of course with temps above freezing at the surface. Hopefully this is not old news and is useful for review. 905A/10

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point 533A. snow changed to mostly small ice pellets just a couple of minutes ago and 0.5" snowice pellets accum (mostly snow) on all surfaces. 32.7F. This may be my final accum for today. Season 35.4"

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point 455A 0.2" snow and sleet accum. The sleet that began ~325A has changed to wet snow. 32.7F 27.5F TD. smaller flake wet snow.

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. Ice pellets began at about 325A EDT/10. Temp 35.2 Dew point 19.4.

Snow or sleet should begin ~2A-3A nw NJ and develop east northeastward with better chances for a start as snow when you get to the Hudson River and points east into Connecticut. The southern edge of any very brief slight sleet (or even wet snow) accumulation should be near Interstate 80 prior to sunrise EDT. Significant icing is possible over the high terrain above 1000 feet from nw NJ into se NYS and western CT before temps at even the highest elevations of NJ/SE NYS exceed 32F around Noon Sunday. Best chance for any small snow accum appears to be the very northern fringe of this NYC forum area. Hope we can get some reports of wintry accums of some sort.

No obs thread for this but the HRRR had snow showers overnight somewhat advertised yesterday at 06z/5...influx of colder air aloft-500mb trough, Result Wantage NJ 8s High Point waking up to a dusting. 0.2" in snow showers late last evening (~11P) makes 5 consecutive days of measurable snow here. March 10.8. Season 34.9. It is pretty up here...no grass blades showing yet. Yea! (no mowing for a couple of 3 weeks I hope)

NOHRSC interpolated 24hr sfall through 12z/4. Seasonal total in this part of Wantage now 34.7. I thought the banding was well modeled by the NAM and in the resultant s+ area (colder profiles and larger dendrites easier to accum). Max today so far was 31.8 ~630A. now 28.9 with increasingly gusty can and partial sunshine. We may not get past 32 here in northern Sussex County NJ today. No matter, melting and settling in progress.

Wantage NJ 8s High Point. 6.3" final. Think snow ended ~245A. Plenty on trees but power outages mostly near I95...think about 30-45,000 customers at this early hours from near PHL to srn CT. Picturesque at sunup if I get time. Will add NOHRSC ~1030A if time One thing I do know... band se New England at this time, probably a bit overfcst by the NAM...took quite a while to get going overnight. and I dont consider this a great example. Maybe we'll get lucky with a nice deep closed low and snowstorm centered off NJ early this spring and have a much chance of a beautiful band. Thanks for all the reports.

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 10PM 3.5". inch/hour rate since 830P. 31.5F. virtually no wind. trees accumulating pretty significantly. Possible last report til after 4A/4.

Wantage 8 s High Point 2.0" at 830P 32.0F. almost inch/hr rate...not quite. Clearing my snowboard-deck etc at 950P 6 hourly; that will carry me to the end of storm - snow report ~ 4A.

I haven't studied close enough, but when i saw the 18z NAM I was worried about 1 foot just near NYC but my guess is your 6 or so will do, with pavement 4 in midtown. However, I prefer to leave this to NYC experts. Plenty of time to pile it up, but need that temp down another deg to 32.5 or so. Again a 7 to 1 should work for NYC, presuming all wet snow.

Meant FAVORABLE, instead of variable. Bottom line, column appears a bit too warm along I95 for reaching potential of the 18z NAM (unless you use 7 to 1 or 8 to 1 ratio. We even up here in Wantage lost the first 70 minutes of snow accum due to daylight and coming off a max T of 39. When the temp dropped below 34 with the 3/4s-, then accum began during the late day. Would have started sooner at night even at 34. However, thats past. I am concerned about power outages ne NJ eastward across S CT, or wherever acscums surpass 6". Always learning from these events.

Huffs Church near RDG (1000 ft) 3"; Bushkill Twonship in Northampton County 3" per PHI FB VERY good sign for elevations in our forum area. Nice reports on the NY forum.

Not sure if we can 2"/hr near I95...snow ratios and lift i don't think are variable but will glad to be proven wrong. I think best chance 1-2/hr higher terrain between I84 and roughly Warrant-Morris counties to north of the Merritt Parkway.

0.9" at 720P in Wantage 8 s High Point. Lost the first 70 minutes to melting. Pavement a little over 1/2 inch behind grass/decks. Looks to me like elevations do best.

Snow began Wantage 8s High Point around 350P. I see a bit faster in the higher elevation to our northeast in Sussex County. We're off and running. Just amazing if this comes to pass from 38.7F and partly sunny at 1230P to 8" by 4AM Monday. Hard hitter. small flakes right now.

12z/3 NAM banding as seen thru FSU web MOE web site, courtesy Bob Hart et al. Lets see what the radar says at this hours, 3z, 6z (can only upload the two hrs). The way I think of this...decent lift into the ideal dendrite zone is accentuated and the wet snowflakes become larger and show a bright band on radar and depending on the return, the flake size can assist with snowfall rates (Quinlan et al). I'm not up to speed on rates but I just look for big time snow in that area, especially if quasi stationary. In this case transitory east northeastward but still I think will be notable for anyone having to be out tonight. 305P/3.

Go METS?

Wantage NJ, just before go time. 37/19 at 250P, down from a high of 38.7. Should be no problem to drop to freezing 2 hrs after SB. Will post 12z NAM 800-600mb banding signal 3z/6z/9z-4 in the Shellacking thread, by 305P. Then if someone can post radar images at those times, we'll see how the NAM and this way of looking at FGEN, fared. The only big negative for 2/hr in the colder sector of the storm- it seems the primary lift is just below the scientifically defined IDEAL dendrite zone. It's a model...imperfect. Just trying to use something that I think has value, as imperfect as it is.