wdrag

agreed and closer than yesterdays 12z cycle. still concerned about dominance of Mondays storm... recovery. However, interesting that the GFS and CMC continue on it...CMC GGEM in fact sooooo far west, keeping us warm again. Interesting times with transitioning teleconnections. See blue wave below.

agreed on all .. at least the southern stream is cold and active. No one in the media talking about a high impact event in OHIO-MI early next week. Sort of surprised... maybe I'm reading this wrong?

Noticed a CoCoRAHS smattering of Trace's in the forum area, presuming mostly rain early this morning.

Very very unlikely thru 12z-Dec 1.

Just a note... I see the EC and GGEM op runs from 00z/25 are favoring another event for our area around the 4th-5th. Have my doubts if the first storm around Dec 1 is big. Too soon too recover except for a CFP. EPS has not much hint, though-some, and GEFS is all nw flow at 850MB after Dec 1 for a week. Instead we may need to think about Dec 8-9. That looks a little more promising to me, including a weeks recovery time. However, I hope for nw suburbs folks, to be wrong about Dec 4-5.

Good Wednesday morning nw-ne suburbs! Monticello metar had a flurry around 1 AM. Unsure if anyone up there had an ice pellet or snow flurry overnight but my attention has shifted to early next week and maybe the 8th-9th, all on the main NYC forum.

Probably my last on this for the night. Ice pellets occurring in this band at State College in the geographic center of PA. mPing.

Not much going on wintry weather wise so I figured I'd perk up the nw-ne suburbs. Models seem to be missing the fgen band racing across nrn PA. May last longer than any of the modeling and come in as a 15 minute snow or ice pellet shower across ne PA and se NYS n and w of POU between 1130PM and 230AM. Trace.

A passing flurry possible this morning Poconos into se NYS interior high terrain mainly n of I84 A short period of flurries appears possible tonight between midnight - 3AM in the Poconos and se NYS high terrain mainly n of I84-NAM has pretty good FGEN rolling through (better than Sunday morning). Wind post for 30th-Dec 1 on main NYC forum and no topic planned before late today or Wednesday on what should be a big storm, with maybe a little post storm dusting on Dec 1???

Good Monday morning all (Nov 23), Yesterday morning had the slightest of an ice pellet-snow shower north of I-84 per reports here and mPing. We're going to try to out-perform that Wednesday morning and a little caution is urged on a big warmup for Thanksgiving morning n of I-84. So, no big snowstorms foreseen in November I-84 northward, but eventually the more seasonable first half of December might produce something that is more than 3" for I-84. Tuesday: Maybe a flurry? (Accumulative snow showers concentrated near Oneida Lake in NYS). Wednesday: A short period of snow or flurries is anticipated between 1AM and 10AM, that could produce a covering (less than 1"), especially Poconos, CT/MA and the Adirondacks. See UKMET snow cover graphic which includes snow showers in upper NYS today and tomorrow. The idea is the southern edge of the snow...while it may not be that far south, at least a flurry is anticipated that far south, per increasingly south modeling of the past 24 hours. Which also tells me, that it may be quite cool on Thanksgiving n of I84...high terrain of slight icing interest there. For now, that is an outlier possibility for our NYC forum northern fringe. Wind: will mention for entire forum Nov 30 or Dec 1. Looking forward to see how this all turns out.

Hi... After review of what happened today... not much, but a very brief period of ice pellets did occur in at least some spots of our NYC nw-ne suburbs forum; just north of I84 this morning trending to a brief mix of snow further north of POU. Models tend to underplay the very minor lead thrusts of warmer air arriving and so, am glad a few on here may have seen 5 minutes of wintry weather. We'll give it another try Wednesday morning near daybreak. Very brief and overall inconsequential but some of the modeling is coming back south. We'll see what happens. Meanwhile a few flurries in the wake of the cold front tomorrow=Monday, may cross some of our higher terrain late Monday or Tuesday.

and as recently as around 11A-1115A... reports of snow/sleet just s of Kingston NY and two reports of ice pellets near Waterbury CT.

So far only sprinkles MPO, MSV, Wantage NJ, with ice pellets near Carbondale PA around 930A and apparently now vicinity MSV. Probably sprinkles further e in CT lower elevations. at 1015A.

Pretty dead on the NYC forum the past day or so... yep, not much to talk about. There is a 2 hour northeastward transitory window of opportunity for the higher terrain of the I84 corridor to see a showery spritz of mPING noticeable ice pellets-flurries, or freezing rain sprinkles, between 8A-2P. That band as this is written 647AM is now trying to grow east -northeastward between I78-I80 in PA-NJ. So far, dry air at 850MB is evaporating whatever is trying to reach the ground. This band of showery very light precipitation should gradually organize a bit more as it passes out of ne PA/se NYS after 1030AM and heads toward ALB-CEF. That's as exciting as i see it on front end wintry events. The Wed morning possibility still exists, but chances are 80% that it won't occur. sighhhh

Following up this Saturday morning nw suburbs! It's Nov 21 and while no big snowstorms are outlooked here through November, it's not necessarily completely devoid of snow. A brief period of ice pellets-flurries or freezing rain is possible for the I-84 high terrain corridor 9A-3P Sunday, especially Poconos and possibly extreme nw NJ/interior se NYS There may be another period of snow I-84 northward Wednesday morning, with less than 1" high terrain accumulation possible (see 00z/21 UKMET). These are exceedingly minor events, if they were to occur but it's something that may briefly spark mPING interest for the wintry weather diehards (me), IF they were to occur. NO guarantee's. This paragraph is based on 00z/21 multi model usage, leaning on the NAM-3K, UKMET, SPC HREF. Have added 06/21 NAM FGEN modeled prediction for ~9A Sunday. Right now that says little or nothing for I84 but if that happens to extend a little further east (red is FGEN) in future modeling-reality, then we're in. Thermal profile for MSV (Monticello NY) suggests ice pellets or freezing rain, BUT, if the fgen lift is stronger then the column cools the warmer dryer layer near 850 MB seen around 15z (10A) and suddenly we have a few minutes of snow. For now, it's a long shot and all I can excited about in the next few days. When you look at the KMSV profile, any precip before 7PM Sunday night certainly can freeze over the higher terrain (sub 32F profile). The question then becomes, is the modeling a touch too cold there in the NYS high terrain? (I also use KMSV for extreme nw NJ near State Route 23 (High Point-Montague and Wantage). 655A/21

Good Friday morning nw suburbs! It's Nov 20 and while no big snowstorms are outlooked here through November, it's not completely devoid of snow. A brief period of little or no accumulation for the I-84 corridor is "possible" 9A-3P Sunday. There may be another period of snow I-84 northward Wednesday morning, with less than 2" high terrain accumulation possible. These are exceedingly minor events, if they were to occur but it's something that may briefly dress up the landscape, IF they were to occur. NO guarantee's. This paragraph is based on 00z/20 multi model usage, leaning on the NAM-3K, UKMET, SPC SREF plumes and nearby ECMWF hints.

I agree with this... but I think there excellent mets on here, including long rangers, and for me-that info helps put things in perspective, less hope-more LIMITED science. The most recent post by Bluewave illustrates linking the NAO with snowfall in CP. I like that stuff, and especially seeing how positive the NAO has been in recent Decembers. Doesn't mean it cant snow but odds are not in our favor if the NAO is overall, positive. Timing with the NAO BIG changes sometimes can make better outcomes. No stats but harkening back on SUNY research. The change from positive to significant negative implies digging shortwaves into the ne USA, while going from strong negative to positive implies to me, WAA and snow to probably ice or rain (in winter). The CP normal snowfall for Dec is 4.8. I've heard say and read somewhere herein, above normal in DEC portends a snowier than normal winter (winter probably 30% complete by Jan 1). Note the +NAO DEC of 13 and 17 was above normal in snowfall (if I read the graphs correctly)... but what was the NAO or NAO change ~when the snows occurred. ?? I dont; have time to check this. No matter, Those two winters were above normal...significantly so. (I think 13-14 around 57" and 17-18 around 40') However the background state -Enso and subsequent monthly NAO's probably played a role. I'm a timing guy: all can look bleak, but if you get a break (stratwarm, or MJO), you can get a good week or two of opportunities, provided it's cold enough.

Good morning, Memory jogger April 5-7 1982... ??? That was a big one from WI to NYC north... 10"NYC Northeast Snowstorms Vol II (kodis-Uccellini)

Good info impressions shared by all on Zeta. Kudos to Moderately Unstable for the observations stated in paragraph 1 of the Tuesday evening (p4) post. I didn't look at any Zeta posts midday Wednesday onward as the cat was out of the bag ,so to speak. Have attached this mornings remnant per outages... rather large 3-4 days after traversing the southeast USA. I also admit the ICON October 23 early missed assessment of cyclone phase in the central Gulf. A cycle or two later, all that was remedied by the multiple models while still hanging out toward the Yucatan.

Still monitoring 26th-27th ne of the Bahamas to near Bermuda for something subtropical or tropical-small, and not necessarily long lived. NHC not showing anything of interest.

Per 12z/24 modeling... looking pretty good and meshing more closely to previous versions of the ICON ,if an MSY-MOB vicinity landfall indeed occurs. I see TWO is near 100% prob formation.

Long ways to go... model confusion on which, or if even two small storms this coming week. GMEX looking more warm core in this mornings Cyclone Phase diagram but selecting a starting point is important. EPS is less emphatic for the Central Gulf Coast. So I do not know but I think it's good to present the broad range of possibilities. If you check the00z/24 EC op... you'd be concerned about just off there se coast of the USA. May add another graphic by 806AM.

2c worth... based on 12z/23 models and not necessarily looking at this correctly.. ICON is interesting. What is more interesting about the ICON is that Phase Diagram is opting turning to cold core over the central GMEX (attached). I think between the 25th and the 26th,,, whatever happens has to meander north to near FL where there seems to be more favorable SST, moisture, and possibly upper air pattern. Still looks like a small tight system but a couple of the hurricane models are offering 64kt at 925MB approaching or passing close to FL. I'm definitely interested in the phase diagrams-utility. For now the NAEFS suggests looking e and ne of FL but I see the Euro/ICON etc look more favorably upon central GMEX.