wdrag

They were skating on Culvers Lake here in nw NJ yesterday---large lake on 206 near the Appalachian Trail. Should add at least 6" ice thickness by Friday 8AM. Piles of snow/ice left in Wantage but overall we have to call it a Trace (for now). I haven't changed any of my thinking from yesterdays post for the entire period discussed. Temps within 2F of what i wrote. This is big...for Chicago I think they need to be talking coldest since 1985... not 1994. Just my take...EC continues 2m low near near -26F. Lets see what the models deliver the next several days... not some are trending colder tracks than yesterdays modeling for the Feb events.

I guess everyone has seen the new 12z/27 GEFS, 12z/27 op EC and 12z/27 EPS (thru 156 hrs). EPS/EC is monitoring for NYC coldest day since 1994 on Thursday with lo/hi of about 0 and ~10F; and maybe...just maybe an inch of snow late Tuesday (EPS prob 20% for more than 1" which is small, while extreme nw Nj and ne PA EPS has 70% chc of more than 3"-Sussex County on the gradient where 70% tends to be less confident). However, out here in nw NJ/ne PA some of the operational guidance is becoming more widespread on 6+ (snow ratio's?) for Pike and Sussex Counties on northeastward into w 1/4 MA. (EPS is less ~4"). Also, am pretty confident of 1 or 2 days (30/31) Chicago top 2 coldest days on record. This is a pretty big event or pair of events, that will exert quite a bit of hardship... infrastructure and 1 or 2 days of cancellations I think here in nw NJ and ne PA, at the least. Also, noticing GEFS has quite a blocking signal beyond 10 days (ne Canada-Greenland) that if occurs, would shunt the initial large warming of the 4th-7th, southward, setting up a battle zone-storm track nearby in Feb (hopefully more favorable than the past two months). No matter, it looks active and interesting but then again, i know its been mostly a dud in Dec-Jan so far for NYC eastward and my enthusiasm is predicated on modeled blocking actually occurring implying, a more snowy-colder favorable -NAO.

No doubt the delay is depressing for snow lovers, esp e of I95. If we hav etc was til march, thats Okay, though I like my winter in winter. Don and other MJO experts will comment on any impact trends. From what I can tell this is warmer than normal response is due to being in 6 now.... and may be mitigated if we get ne Canada Greenland blocking by Feb 10. The anticipation is the fun part... but i share concerns. Gardening tools not yet.. Rather than misplace this observation, have tucked it in here. Big flakes of snow in Wantage NJ right now... few and far between but at 37F/ TD 22...its flurrying. 11A/27

Good Sunday morning everyone, Just my 2cents: Based on 00z-06z/27 ensembles and what is probably necessary to accommodate the coming PV plunge into the upper Midwest this Tue-Wed-Thu; I am still good with several inches of snow just nw of I-95 Tuesday afternoon-night (plowable/ snowblower material, esp ne PA need along and nw of I84). Thereafter, the GFS sfc isn't responding cold enough east of the Appalachians and appears too warm Thursday. My guess is NYC min-max Thu 2 and 13...snow or no snow cover. Fwiw... could see a dusting with the arctic cfp late Wednesday. Will NYC touch zero Thursday morning, I guess not, but 00z/27 EC has ~zero 2m temp 12z/31. CHI top 7 all time coldest mean temp 30th/31st, possibly top 4 or 5 coldest one and two day period. After Feb 4.., This is an especially a climatologically favorable period fort snowfall but the NAEFS is suggesting warm or very warm temps sometime between 4th-11th, not what I'd normally expect. Fingers crossed on MJO progressing to 7 and 8. Walt 1/27 8AM.

Good Saturday morning everyone, Just chiming in, not having read anything here or ), Weather US, Weather Bell. I don't have the time to keep up with all the very good discussion, so I may have missed some things written by others that are relevant and do not support my assessment-summary below. Based on 00z-06z/26 ensembles and what is probably necessary to accommodate the coming PV plunge into the upper Midwest this Tue-Wed-Thu; I am good with several inches of snow along or just nw of I-95 Tuesday (plowable/snowblower material, esp ne PA need along and nw of I84). Lets keep on eye on Monday close call too (it might yet blend in for a LI grazer???). If NYC can get 2 inches of snow Tuesday, i like the odds of max max temp on the 31st of only 10F, coldest since 1994. If not on NYC snow, I still think climate weighted guidance will be too warm, because of the trending colder "ensembled" 2m temp departure 18z/31 (about 30F below normal). Will NYC touch zero? I guess not, but pretty close. CHI top 10 all time coldest mean temp 30th/31st, possibly top 4 or 5 coldest two day period. If the EPS consistently backs off from this date on, then this is all wrong but I don't think so. Rooting for NYC snow on this one, but nothing locked there. Much greater confidence west of I95. After Feb 2...no offerings yet, but overall I like what I'm seeing, especially since nothing yet blatant in a climatologically favorable period. Fingers crossed on MJO progressing to 7 and 8. Walt 1/26 906A (cleaned up first 3 lines at 954AM)

Doubtful. This cold will abate w potential Ohio valley to li storm between feb 2 and 6. Maybe I’m optimistic in light of Jan events. I took the warmer hefts for this as I see cold very slowly eroding in a deep overrunning situation, this presuming the excessive arctic cold actually barrels into Chi Buffalo. Long long ways to go. Prefer t comment only prior to Feb 2. Btw many new Englanders are aware that a winter snow storm is relatively common around Feb 567. Someone is welcome to check the stats on frequency. Later. Walt

Yes, it's possible... 1/19/94 NYC CP max T 10F ... i think thats possible the 31st or 2/1. I don't want to push it much more than that, since we're still talking 7- 8 days out but yes. This outbreak is no national news right now, but I think its formidable and will be a big player in our lives from the northern Plains to NJ New England for 2-3 days. Don has been statistically pointing to this possibility. We'll see how this turns out by the end of February but it is interesting.

Good Thursday morning all, (Jan 24). While no snowstorms are clearly defined the 29th-30th, for me its still worth monitoring. WPC focus is nw of I-95. The bigger story is the Polar Vortex, modeled by the EPS/GEFS to come down to just N of L Superior around the 30th. If that occurs, Chicago is going to probably deal with a top 10 coldest day in history, certainly one of its coldest days since the mid 90's there. So while not etched in stone, looks brutal to me and I think this will spill over to our coldest day of the winter so far here around the 31st-Feb 1, snow cover or not. And, with such a volume of arctic air spilling south, something has to respond-happen downstream here along the east coast. So far, modeling just gives us a cold front with weak waves of low pressure-no big deal. WPC statistical guidance still has a minor option for us of 2+" next Tuesday or Wednesday (light green 10% rising to blue 70%). Not promising yet, and may never be. And yes, 11A-3P today, squall liner I-95 southeastward, with scattered wind gusts 45-65 MPH (coastal NJ, NYC/LI se New England) and very well modeled for the past several days by the ECMWF op runs that I checked from 00z/22,23, and now 24. 637A/24

Good Wednesday morning all, Jan 23. Still looks worthy of following for early-middle of next week. How it evolves, unsure.... but there is still an idea of a southern origination (00z/23 EC op). EPS and latest 06z GEFS both have a surface low broadly modeled off the NJ coast Tuesday... albeit weak. So this would say modest event, but we have such a potent mid American +PNA pattern and associated diving vortex that I think the downstream flow can adjust for a more important low. (there are several members of the 06z/23 GEFS further south with a short wave than the overall ensembled depiction). Myself, I like the idea of some sort of snow event here near and northwest of I-95 (NJ/e PA northeastward into New England) sometime Monday-Tuesday into early Wednesday, followed by a week of colder than normal (30th-at least Feb 5) as depicted by the ensembles. One day in there may be even colder here, than what occurred this past Monday the 21st. Doesn't mean it will happen but thats my interpretation of the EPS/GEFS, NAEFS and their past 3 days of adjustment. Just needs another few days to figure out the interactions. WPC day 7 graphic attached. Darker green is 30-50% chi 2+ inches of snow. 644A

Should be 1 or 2 days 30th and or 31st, with considerable ensemble differences EPS/GEFS thereafter... but overall normal or below (I "think" - not real sure), Feb 1-6).

Regarding Mon-Tue (28-29). Still on the table, not as deeply vertical northern-southern stream phaser that closes off over De-New England, but still a rapidly moving system that originates in the Gulf of Mexico or event further south on Sunday, then travels rapidly up the east coast and intensifies with another serious 1 day cold shot behind it around the 30th-31st, which could rival yesterdays coldest one day average temps here (AVP-NYC CP) since Feb 14, 2016. Worthy of monitoring ensemble trends. Looks interesting to me, especially along or more likely, west of I-95. Right now it appears modest but it does have potential to be larger than the ensembles imply (00z/22 EPS & 06z/22 GEFS), in part because they cant figure out the primary 1 day event, and have it spread over 2-3 days. I'm giving this time to ferret out the details and concentration of the event. I wont post again on this for another day or three, til I feel its more informative. Enjoy your writings. (btw, noticed for the past couple of days. modeled sw wind gusts 40-45kt NJ coast Thu morning). 647A/22

Hoping the phaser idea is right but I don't see phasing at 500mb, even as occurred this morning in NYS to allow us to have very deep cold air here today. I see 2 members of the GEFS that have an option for a closed low south of 35N, and no no sign, imo, of phasing closed low aloft south of 40. Doesn't mean it cant happen but i see a fast mover out of the se USA up the east coast, w so many details to remain. Wont comment for a couple of days til this gets a little better defined. Here's WPC take issued at 1AM, basically for Sunday into Monday. Note GA 10-29% chance of 2+inches of snow via .25 w.e. frozen. The darker green is 30-49% ie... thats 51-70% non occurrence. I like the WPC idea, as an outlook...not a big big one but definitely a hazard producer and associated travel issues Sun-Mon, but from my s standpoint, more likely west of I95.

saw that... thanks! not thinking phaser but definitely of interest as per WPC graphic, ATL to CAR. see attached for what i think is ensembled winter event mostly w of I-95. Plenty of room for error this week. Darker green is greater than 30% chance of 2+" snow. Please note the southern extent (north Georgia) which I think has a decent chance of working, especially southern Apps. Also fi there is 30% chi of verifying an event, that means there's a 70% chance of not. I wont be commenting often or at all, unless I see a phaser off DE. Later, Walt

retired March 31, 2018. Still trying to remain relevant and pass on info.

For those with the chance of check 2M temp guidance... take a look at current GFS vs EC 2m temp fcsts (this has also been the history of both models for this event). Looks to me like the EC has outperformed the GFS in morning lows NYC-AVP and i think will be a winner with todays afternoon high when temps don't rise much more than 8F from the 730AM lows. This because of the maximized cold pool, 500MB down to the sfc, represented by the -24C 850MB temp at 18z/21. Also, I've noticed arctic chill is like molasses and it tends to trail the coldest air aloft. MAX today in CP might only be 14F. A chilly day...not necessarily a big deal for most of us (its winter), except utilities use explicitly accurate hourly or 3 hourly temp fcsts for ensuring everyone has heat and fuel, including industry. For sure splitting the difference between the EC/GFS 2 m temp was an improvement, upon the GFS alone. Revising this: now that its % in CP and -2 here Wantage...this is ECMWF op run after op run superiority upon the GFS 2m temps from AVP to NYC for sure... I see there EC 2m temps best on weather.us (subscriber). In any case, I now think that NYC will be hard pressed to exceed 13F this afternoon. (8F rise form this mornings low). Updated 721A/21.

630A/21 Wantage NJ 740'MSL 8 s of High Point. -1.5F. I see CP +7. Abrasive cold. Updated 723A -2.2F.

We are part of an excellent Susse Rural Electric Cooperative (SREC). Our location is excellent for solar. They wont support solar-not worth it for SREC! IE... we do better without. Also, we don't have electric heat- rely on propane. So while I agree in principal (solar).... there are reasons for not choosing. Zero in Wantage at 513A and wind chill 19 below at 740' MSL - thats lower elevations for this area of northern Sussex County. Max gust so far, 37 MPH at 7P last night.

And the 1" of w.e. precip expected Wed-Thu will probably be absorbed.... and unless gutters are frozen, probably wont be much of a negative factor in that area, at least for the mid week event.

It's possible reevaluation with 18z or 00z NOHRSC interpolated 24 or 48 snow graphic will be a better fit. the 18z version is just not ready yet.

NOHRSC interpolated snowstorm mapped amounts through 12z/20. Looks reasonable? Also leftovers glaze ~1P this afternoon (E 0.1" radial), lower elevations Wantage NJ with T 26F after briefly exceeding freezing 10A-noonish (max34). Flurries as this is written at 157P. My final would 4.5" snow-sleet, plus 0.10 glaze accretion from who knows how much ZR. Season 15.8".

My post an image at 2P when temp falls below freezing and wind kicks in, to include any remaining glaze on trees. currently 34F.

Correct 2mi from the Appalachians Trail. Beautiful here... but when power goes out, and trees need to be cleared.... its a problem. Last March it didn't get below 31F in those multi day outages, so homes could maintain enough heat to prevent pipes bursting. Tonight, if power is out and there is no safe heating of the home, especially windward walls...there will be major consequences. I'm pretty sure it will get down to -1F at our home in Wantage at sunrise Monday, with wind chill 20-30below. NYC in a way lucky no snow cover. btw, I think 1/21 will be coldest mean temperature here in nw Nj and ne PA since Feb 13, 2016 Later, Walt

Pretty good freezing rain with light glaze due to considerable runoff between 4a-10A (rainfall rates too fast so less glaze than what one might think). Now up to 32F, so we in Wantage NJ have a window of easier snow/ice removal between 11A and 1P today when best chance of above freezing temps, before the mid and late afternoon gusty nw wind temperature plunge. If we can rid ourselves of glazed trees, we'll be better off tonight. we did have a brief burst of 4% of Sussex County NJ without power around 920AM. Thanks for the reports. I'll post our low temp tomorrow morning...snowcover making it much easier for sub zero to slide in here nw of NYC tomorrow morning.

So for the still working mets on this board... there continues to be need for improved modeling of boundary layers (BL) temps, especially the lowest portion of the BL... ALL model failure on this CAD drainage that is a constant, when, a reservoir of colder air exists near I90 (MA-NYS), available for reinforcement. We're lucky here in northern Sussex County that we had mostly sleet (11P-430A). We'll know more at sunrise, and then if it doesn't warm above 32, a second chance for power outages with 35-45 Mph gusts knocking down ice covered branches tonight. Unknowns to prepare for. One known I think is the risk not only elevated risk for heart attacks removing our solid 4.5" of snow sleet (it was broomable last evening prior to sleet (24f at that time). but also shoulder injuries since the weight of snow -sleet-freezing rain can take a toll.

Good morning all, Wantage NJ (mi s of High Point) 740'MSL 4.5" snow sleet packed down by freezing rain now with maybe a few ice pellets mixed in. T 27.3 and rising steadily now. Glaze so far less than .10 since ZR may not have really dominated til sometime after 3A.