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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    A couple of ensemble probability posts for tomorrows event. Big QPF and asstd bigger snowfall peels east somewhere near I80. 00z/19 EPS further N than 0z6/19 GEFS. 03z/19 SREF not that promising for NYC but i suspect 2-3" before the change to sleet etc. This is what I used for one of my local friend posts this morning. These probabilities can temper enthusiasm but are good AI checks against hope. Let the reality check occur by 6P Wednesday.
  2. wdrag
    Wantage NJ. ZL- ended. 30.4 Treated pavement wet. Otherwise still icy. Images wouldn't load. Thats okay. Gotta run.
  3. wdrag
    Ditto here in Wantage NJ with freezing drizzle ongoing here at 645AM. 30.0F. This is definitely a problem on all untreated surfaces in far nw NJ.
  4. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8 s High Point 0.1" ice pellets, T snow, and unknown glaze amount of less than 0.1" radial. 30.2F ZL- at 420AM.
  5. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. Mostly IPW- at this time. 31.8./16.7 Possible last report til ~ 5am.
  6. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8 s of High Point. SB ~716P/17. small flake so far. 33/12 and down from a high of 39. May post 1 or 2 more times before 9PM. A slightly better start in flake size compared to the snow-ice event of last Tuesday.
  7. wdrag
    Hi! Looks like a nice little event coming tonight into Monday, with some banding, especially se NYS-CT where all snow likely.
  8. wdrag
    My last: Thanks for those added obs the past two days. Here's the remainder of 0.1 estimated radial glaze this morning at 9A (melting).
  9. wdrag
    Wantage NJ - 8 S of High Point. Final 2.5". glaze on top. Still 28.4F at 4A. Thanks for joining this thread w your obs. Walt
  10. wdrag
    sorry for the delay. RH is relative humidity. Models are generally very good at forecasting deep layered high humidity precipitation, but are not so good with precip at layers of high humidity below ~3000 feet (example when a dry slot cleans out the high humidity above 3000 feet). In yesterdays case, With still very high humidity trapped below the inversion, and probably a temperature of nearly -8C somewhere in that layer, and just a bit of lift (with the secondary developing near the coast-there was convergence here), fine snow may have been produced because snow generally needs to be generated with ice nuclei in a saturated layer of ~ -8C or colder. Also, as a side bar...when precip is changed to rain by a warm layer aloft, it can refreeze to ice pellets (sleet), with a temperature of -6C below that above freezing layer, or to ice pellets by a deep layer of sub0C below the above freezing layer. Anyway, hopefully the first part of your message is answered and my reasoning is possibly not the only answer.
  11. wdrag
    Ditto on fine snow here in Wantage. 2.4 at 720P and 20.8F. the snow means that that there is possibly only a shallow saturated layer of rh with lift in the -8C range causing the fine snow.
  12. wdrag
    Doubtful above freezing. still 20.3 F here in Wantage at this time.
  13. wdrag
    Hi, The following are two graphics that I think are useful in determining snowfall potential. The first is the NWS ensemble probability for various amounts of snow and freezing rain. In this case, for a local briefing I used the prob for snow exceeding 4", issued prior to 4am this morning by the NWS. It ... and if you haven't seen or used this, its good stuff. It showed not that a great a chance for exceeding 4" along and s of I84. I also added a graphic for consideration: Anytime the NAM FOUS has 0 or +C at T5, it sleets or rains, barring excessive VV in the ideal dendritic growth zone (saturated -12 to 18C). Anyway, here's a 00z/12 look at the NAM 3KM T section for HPN. Note the modeled 0C aloft approaching HPN ~17z, when the sleet began mixing in. If the model changes with time, that needs to be considered. In this case, the warming aloft was pretty stout early on. I view both of these tools as helpful reality checks, especially NAM inside of 60 hours. Any questions? Later, Walt
  14. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 505PM report 2.2" snow sleet total. Pounding sleet right now. Averaging at least a tenth an inch of sleet/hour, since Noon. 19.8F 740"MSL
  15. wdrag
    In Brooklyn? How much. I presume going to school was okay?
  16. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 230PM report 1.9" snow/sleet and T19F at that time. T At 4PM still 19.9F.
  17. wdrag
    Sussex NJ downtown 205pm last report from this location. 1.6” with 1.3 snow 805am/noon and 0.3 sleet since noon thru 205p. Sleet continues
  18. wdrag
    Sussex NJ Downtown. 1.3”. Changed to sleet around 1155AM
  19. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 740' mil last ob here till ~220P. 5s-. small flakes so far. insignificant at this time.
  20. wdrag
    Agreed on obs only-..deleted my 755A post. S flurries B in Wantage NJ 805A. I may not be updating my location between 840A-220P.
  21. wdrag
    If the moderators feel the current thread on discussing the threat is sufficient then just discard this. I'll probably have something to start this around 5A or 6A/12.
  22. wdrag
    Good Monday morning all, Its Feb 11 and the modeling while not ideal for MECS, certainly bodes well for multiple events the remainder of Feb and probably the first week of March. Some of those should have decent front end thumps of snow-sleet ( i know not enough for I95, but who thought 4-6" by tomorrow morning near PHL s NJ???? one model did--the GGEM have 3-4"+) We know about tomorrow up here. 19th-20th might be halfway decent VA's to SNE, 22nd-23rd and 25th-26th also ensembled (EPS/GEFS). The EPS has an 80% chance for half a foot of snow in NYC by the end of the 26th... the ensembled storm track is showing signs of depressing slightly south with a possibly persistent colder flavor after the 17th. In any case...the GEFS which tends to be more accurate on large qpf, is flagging 4-5" of w.e. pcpn in NJ between tomorrow and the 26th. I believe it. Frigid airmass covering MT/DKTS this month continues through the end of Feb and the warmer than normal far se USA continues a nice storm track here in the ne, albeit with the history of dealing with cutters (OH Valley not redeveloping fast enough of LI). Still, prospects look a little better, especially w MJO trending colder phases. I even think the -NAO is already trying to develop now (transitory) and modeling some slight suppression which should become a little stronger after the 17th. It's more or less the next 3 weeks we have to do this. Fingers crossed the modeling and southward drift are thee eventual reality. 911a/11
  23. wdrag
    715P...still 32 MPO, MSV and High Point Monument...33F at 1500 ft in northern Sussex County. Just not quite cold enough during the pcpn.
  24. wdrag
    Supposedly MSV light snow. still at 635P?? Unsure but freezing there.
  25. wdrag
    This post is unlikely to garner any ice reports, but if there are any, please post. SPC HREF too cold by maybe 2 degrees. Not impossible above 1500 ft in Sussex County, but I think unlikely, except maybe High Point? Maybe there will be an ice report from Litchfield County, tho I realize that n CT reports probably belong in the New England forum. 459P/6
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