wdrag

31.6 at 720AM. still icy. calm, cloudy. No glaze measurement but no doubt there are problems on all untreated surfaces. Few school delays. My last report on this thread. Have a good day.

Wantage NJ 4 sw 740'MSL Still very icy on untreated surfaces. 533AM Temp is 30.4F. At least a T of sleet, and my guess is less than .10 freezing rain overnight but gauge has no heater, so melted unknown. Too dark to check radial. May have another report ~730A. I do know there was already a new T of sleet and freezing rain around 2A with conditions continuing at 230A. This in addition to the brief IPW- that occurred last evening ~6P. IN short: Anyone unaware in this part of Sussex County NJ is in for a fall, stepping outside on any untreated surface. 535AM 1/8

Trace of sleet ~6P this evening in Wantage NJ. 26.4F.

Good evening, Just a quick observation thread... to isolate any reports in one thread for this evenings spurt, and the primary warm frontal band of rain/freezing precip early Tuesday.

On late12-early 14... I follow ensembles in general and I think we have an event coming per GEFS/EPS/GEPS. ( I definitely think the FV3 has problems and am not looking forward to the change, but it must come, because I think thats what the modeling world needs, to make a substantial improvement on the GFS~ 2020-21). In this situation, I want to see the GGEM OP come on board. Until that happens... my confidence on type/size are with doubts but it seems at least a grazer .1 to .5" qpf NYC/NNJ is coming with potent "options" for a bigger storm. An event has been in the modeling for many-many days. I wont be able to restudy this in depth til either this evening or early Tuesday. I think (not sure if its already up) its time we start a thread on snowfall/ice amounts observations from 6PM this evening through 10AM Tuesday for this first minor event centered on the 8th n and w of NYC. That can keep the conversations separated when the first little batch of precip arrives this evening. Have a good day. Walt

Good Monday morning Jan 7. Looks to me like we've had our coldest temps here since Dec 19, (Central Park = Dec 8). I'm attaching snow depth and snow anomaly maps on this post and will reference these in a few days, as any changes evolve, first upper NYS/northern New England by the 9th, and then possibly NC-ne USA late next weekend-Monday. 829AM.

In the fwiw department; BANDING...well modeled days in advance, particular the ECMWF. If you wish to eyeball what I think is fairly classic banding signature, look at the EPC 500mb pattern for 12z today and 00z/6. Note where we are located with respect to the 500 flow---deformation and banding. Pretty big rains are occurring ne PA and far nw NJ. We had 0.27 prior to 8am EST, now at 0.73" I won't be able to reply to any comments for several hours but just wanted to pass on something that I think we could already see back around Dec 26-27. 1.52" Wantage NJ 4 mi sw 8mi s High Point NJ. 1/5/18 Nice small stream rises ydy in our area, within bank.. Attached a screen shot entire 1/4-5/18 event max pcpn axis >.75".

In the fwiw department; BANDING...well modeled days in advance, particular the ECMWF. If you wish to eyeball what I think is fairly classic banding signature, look at the EPC 500mb pattern for 12z today and 00z/6. Note where we are located with respect to the 500 flow---deformation and banding. Pretty big rains are occurring ne PA and far nw NJ. We had 0.27 prior to 8am EST, now at 0.73" I won't be able to reply to any comments for several hours but just wanted to pass on something that I think we could already see back around Dec 26-27. Final today was 1.52", all but 0.27 after 8AM Saturday.

In the fwiw department; BANDING...well modeled days in advance, particular the ECMWF. If you wish to eyeball what I think is fairly classic banding signature, look at the EPC 500mb pattern for 12z today and 00z/6. Note where we are located with respect to the 500 flow---deformation and banding (check later morning radar in NJ/PA). Pretty big rains are occurring ne PA and far nw NJ. We had 0.27 "prior to 8am EST, now at 0.74 as of this writing. I won't be able to reply to any comments for several hours but just wanted to pass on something that I think we could already see back around Dec 29 in the guidance 500 MB pattern. GFS/JMA were constantly again tooo far south with this event, handled much better overall by the GGEM/ECMWF (EPS especially). 1038AM 1/5. Also reposted NJ pcpn comments on 2018 annual and will be verifying daily the Dec 26 post.

I am hoping the PA state climatologist can comment. I am referencing the following link that illustrates the wide ranging annual records by climate city. Full attribution of the story to Weather Underground, and for the data collecting-processing and authenticating to NOAA-NWS-NCEI/RCC's. https://www.wunderground.com/news/news/news/2018-12-15-record-wet-year-2018-washington-dc-baltimore

It was an annual record (past the previous 2011 -63.95") for the state of NJ, on average. Official release I've not yet seen on the Rutgers web site. Records date back to 1895. https://www.njweather.org/news NWS 2018 precip (rain and melted snow) total for Sussex County of far nw NJ is 69.70. - 22.0" above normal. No ranking available. NWS Sussex Cooperative Observing Station had 62.84" for the year, while the variability across the county was highlighted by CoCoRaHS stations with complete annual records (no normals are available) including Hardyston with 77.77" and Andover with 75.16²" Posted Saturday 1/5/18 838 AM.

Wantage NJ 4 sw: apparent CFP with pretty sharp td drop, big increase in gusts past 30 MPH at this 740'MSL location. Max G so far 37 MPH at 1010AM. Max T was 55.8 ~809A. Will only post again on wind ob, if exceed 45MPH.

Good Monday morning-Dec 31, fwiw... i added my comments to the 12/26 second post on this 11 day period upcoming. It's there if you wish to review. No major change.

Hi everyone, I'm sort of confused. I'm attaching WPC's day 5 prob of significant snow or ice for Thu into Fri. Looks pretty good to me when you look at all the model guidance and potential for a chilling closed 500MB low passing across NJ/LI around Friday. Could well be too warm, but I wouldn't give up. Got a long ways to go, getting to Fridays probable substantial precip event, which could be heavy wet snow (comma head-banding) on the nw fringe as hinted in darker green on this image. Seems like a lot of us are siding with a wet EC. I wouldn't be dismissing the GGEM option. It imo, is very good in synoptic scale winter weather. Until it gives up the snow, keep checking the models, especially when we get to 72 hours out. Walt 644PM/30

Dingmans PA ~1300' similar to Wild Acres 1/2". From family.

Just a thought on temps: At this time of year, will "above normal" at night change snow to rain, or above normal in the afternoon - after a morning event has occurred, mean that it rained? We all love the 10-20F 30 MPH 1/hr classic snowstorms, but many big snowstorms occur with marginal temps. For now, I think its good we have such an active southern stream... The rest is timing the event with just cold enough thermal column and preferably strong VV in the ideal dendrite growth zone (-12-18C >75% rh). One other comment: Already the prediction by some of an above normal winter snow wise in the southeastern USA has verified and it's only DEC. If we can manage near normal temps the next two months (overall), there should be plenty of snow opportunities-not all snow but at least the option of occurring. 10.5 "seasonal total here in my lower elevation of Wantage NJ (740'MSL), to date.

Wantage NJ 4 sw 740'MSL. 0.3 final. SB~645A. SE around now (842A).

It's early, lots of sensitive interactions between northern and southern streams. My sense, the EC big warmth next week is wrong (Jan 7-11). Too much downhill flow in Canada, plus southern streamers continue and probably pretty good snow cover from somewhere nrn PA through much of NYS into northern central New England, making it easier maintain shallow cold. (a half foot or more increase possible over that of this Dec 30th morning.) Obvious wait and see but EC is very good at holding onto closed lows southern stream, but i tend to doubt its ensemble outlook week two, whereas GFS i think is reading a correct potential for phasing northern and southern streams around Jan 8-9, s of Nova Scotia. Should be an interesting period 1/3-11. Btw, the 00z/30 EC ensembles are a little faster than then the 00z EC op. GGEM/NAEFS is slower than the GFS, and am guessing Jan 4 Long duration comma head event, if I'm reading this right. 06z/30 GEFS is coming around big time to an extensive 1/2" or greater w.e. event. Yes, probably too warm NYC, but not very far nw of I95...its going to be an interesting week of potential substantial snows Jan 4 and 8ish. Another event ensemble ~ Jan 12. So, the trough has been in the east since last July. Means, if it can, it will precip but la/lo northern fringe always in doubt. Am thinking we're good for 1/2" our more qpf 12/31, 1/4 and 8 ne PA-NNJ north to at least I-90. Finally: just a comment on FV3. I have checked on this: to my knowledge here in the ne USA, i dont see it as an improvement on the current GFS model. I am told in 2020, FV3 will be a significant improvement. Meanwhile unsure of FV3 implementation date. wd 8AM

Wantage NJ 4 sw 740'MSL. 0.1 snowfall since SB 645AM. White it wont last long... EC has been hinting this for about 3 dYS, AND UKMET 00Z/30 6hrly pcpn might be best this morning. HRRR totally missing (HRRRX n/a due to FED shutdown. Will repost in my 12/26 post minor update...no sig changes there first 11 days Jan w my reasoning.

Good Saturday (Dec 29) morning all: This is not an official release for media but from the NJ State climatologists office: No doubt we broke the record today. My guess is we’ll be at about 64.50”. Every one of our WxNet stations exceeded the 0.65” needed. That outlier being High Point Monument. All but a handful were 0.99” or higher. Upper Deerfield was near 3”. Will take to at least Tuesday morning to see the final number, perhaps Wednesday. And of course if the rain arrives before midnight on Monday at least the midnight observing stations will result in some added 2018 pcp. --- In our part of the large township of Wantage NJ (8mi south of High Point), 0.89 yesterday... and the year to date...65.93" (Dec just under 5"). --- As fwiw...on the January thread--- am self replying to our January thread originator, to keep my thoughts in one location. --- I may close this NJ ANNUAL precip thread with the official report from NJ on January 2... otherwise my own contributions are pretty much done. If we didn't flood this year in nw NJ/ne PA (basement or otherwise), that is a good sign for your location. Walt 723AM EST 12/29

Good Friday evening: It appears that NJ averaged about 1-1.25" of rain today. That amount together with the previous 63.3" would put us well over 64" for the year, and a record annual amount. This is not yet confirmed by the NJ climatologists office, and it may be a few days til we know for sure via all the incoming ground truth data. Attached is the MARFC gage/radar assessment - 24 hr amount through 7PM this Friday evening, Dec 28.

Updated from the state climatologists office on 12/27: we need about about .66" averaged for the entire state of NJ on Friday the 28th, to exceed the 2011 annual record for NJ. We may not know officially until all the data is corroborated early next week, though it looks like we can make it to the record by 7 PM Friday. Will try to update this later Friday or sometime this weekend. wd 816PM 12/27.

Good Wednesday morning everyone. To open, for your improvement as modeling for January evolves. I probably wont be commenting - just leaving this as ball park assessment from what I've been noticing in modeling trends the past several days. Ensemble long range guidance commonly seen via Tropical tidbits, Weather bell, Weather ok, and other groups, indicate a potential substantial cool down (to below, or much below normal cold) beginning vicinity Jan 5-6, lasting who knows how long? Certainly the coldest air of the season (so far early this winter) should (in my mind) arrive sometime between Jan 6-11. To get there, ---ie a somewhat stable +PNA, there probably will be a couple of events Jan 1-5...ptype/timing/amount uncertain (since models and associated ensembles are changing daily, trying to figure out the sensitive short wave interactions between Polar and Pacific jets). Also, the ensembles, including the NAEFS, seem to imply reinforcement of the colder trend near or after Jan 8, via a possible east coast low, for now modeled well offshore but from what I can tell of the overall pattern, an option close to the coast. Interpretation of the modeled MJO phase is not considered here. As of cycles through 06z/26, consensus modeling (NAEFS, GEFS, EPS) I think is leading us in this direction... much more wintry here in the ne USA. It's January, so we're probably due. 12/27 833 PM: I've checked ensemble guidance from the EC/GFS... so far,so good on the above. I think its going to become a more interesting winter weather wise for us Jan 3 onward, though near misses to the south are possible. Worthy to monitor for the persistent cold outbreak as well in the Jan 6-11 time frame. If I see this starting to crash and burn (more than a days worth of cycles), I'll give it up and comment here. 12/29 747 AM: While the pattern is adjusting, its not quite where I thought it would be for modeling ~Jan 6...but more or less still a similar message as originated the 26th. So the following from a daily blog update to a few weather interested friends. It tends to keep me busy in the long indoor winter, and trying to maintain some prior skill. Again my overview only. You may see it different. For now, I think we're going to see some interesting developments in the ne US Jan 4-11. Good Saturday morning all: Dec 29 623 AM. Daily large scale weather update focused nw NJ/ne PA: Another 1/2-1" of rain mainly 1PM-Midnight on Monday-31st with some drizzle or light showers lingering NY day morning. Yet, another signif precip (rain) event Th-F Jan 3-4 (1/4-1"), BUT may need monitoring for heavy wet snow ~Jan 4. Thereafter, much colder weather arrives M-F Jan 7-11, with certainly January normal cold if not below normal temps for several days that week. Within that, there may be a snow event Jan 8-9. Most certainly, for our snowmobiling friends in upstate NY: substantial snow is ensembled that second week of January. In summary: Seasonable wintry conditions are on the horizon Jan 4-11. Good Sunday morning: I copied this from a Dec30th reply. No substantial change from 12/26, 27, 29 herein: If there is a seed of doubt, its Temp: How much below normal T in the week of Jan 7-11...its still 9 days away and lots can change and prefer to be sure it wont get very cold in that period before I give it up...better to prepare, if its a reasonable option. GEFS/EPS are very different in solutions so I need to wait. In the meantime, my guess from model guidance/ensembles, snow cover is probably going to increase roughly 6" northern PA and I-84 northward by Jan 9. It is winter, and the big warmth of the last half of Dec (NAEFS D8-14's were much too cold) seems to me to be completed or greatly reduced by Jan 3. I could be wrong but am relying on non-MJO instinct. It's early, lots of sensitive interactions between northern and southern streams. My sense, the EC big warmth next week is wrong (Jan 7-11). Too much downhill flow in Canada, plus southern streamers continue and probably pretty good snow cover from somewhere nrn PA through much of NYS into northern central New England, making it easier maintain shallow cold. (a half foot or more increase possible over that of this Dec 30th morning.) Obvious wait and see but EC is very good at holding onto closed lows southern stream, but i tend to doubt its ensemble outlook week two, whereas GFS i think is reading a correct potential for phasing northern and southern streams around Jan 8-9, s of Nova Scotia. Should be an interesting period 1/3-11. Btw, the 00z/30 EC ensembles are a little faster than then the 00z EC op. GGEM/NAEFS is slower than the GFS, and am guessing Jan 4 Long duration comma head event, if I'm reading this right. 06z/30 GEFS is coming around big time to an extensive 1/2" or greater w.e. event. Yes, probably too warm NYC, but not very far nw of I95...its going to be an interesting week of potential substantial snows Jan 4 and 8ish. Another event ensemble ~ Jan 12. So, the trough has been in the east since last July. Means, if it can, it will precip but la/lo northern fringe always in doubt. Am thinking we're good for 1/2" our more qpf 12/31, 1/4 and 8 ne PA-NNJ north to at least I-90. Finally: just a comment on FV3. I have checked on this: to my knowledge here in the ne USA, i dont see it as an improvement on the current GFS model. I am told in 2020, FV3 will be a significant improvement. Meanwhile unsure of FV3 implementation date. wd 8AM 12/31 753 AM self reply on original 12/26: see no reason for major changes to previously multi model ensembled interpretation above. EPS and GEFS both probably not holding onto cool enough 500 pattern (possible intensification of 500 LOW as it crosses NJ 1/5), therefore, probably too warm and too light on the already modeled 1/2" or greater pcpn which should be widespread 0.5-1.5" with deep CCS off NJ. It's possible the column might be too warm for snow on nw edge, but I'll only add, if not snow, then ICE. Need to ride this out for further model evolution. A player may be the preceding Thursday short wave/cfp, that spreads a little light snow across much of our area near and nw of ABE-NYC line. The WPC D4 outlook is similar to its D5 of yesterday, and imo, i think one day too fast. I think this is mostly a 15z Friday-21z Sat event (see slower EPS/GEFS 500MB and UKMET in particular), with I think comma head banding somewhere nrn PA to central or SNE Ptype is uncertain, in my mind. The 1/8-9 event is all over the place but ensembled 1/2" or greater... and in its wake- potentially much colder. Still large diffs between EPS/GEFS tho some sign EPS giving up big warmth all next week while GEFS so far through 06z/31, is intensifying the 1/9-10 phasing off the New England coast. I can see some of the modeled warmth cut off s of NYC Jan 3 onward through the 11th. 1/1/19 Happy New Year!, but not for persistent wintry sub normal cold for a while and I now admit being overall wrong-incorrect on Jan 7-11 substantial cold outbreak as per other posters here relying more heavily on EPS and recent posts on AAM/MJO impact, both of which I'm not well schooled. My only question: is not MJO/AAM at least modestly integrated into the GFS? or is that not possible? It seems many here are very firm on MJO impact upon general upper flow here in the ne USA. Is this is a research to operations (RTO) problem, or my misunderstanding of model physics capability? Thanks! Posted in this thread only at 741AM 1/1 Verification observations below for Wantage NJ 4sw = 8 mi s High Point (will add representative BGMCF6AVP for January on January 12) 12/31 2PM-1 AM 1/1 0.96 rain (all but .04 on the 31st) 1/3 3-4A 0.02 rain. A trace of of sleet or flurries occurred prior, sometime between 830-midnight/2nd. 1/5 1230AM-230 PM 1.52" (1.77" in Franford Township). Excellent banding ne PA/nw NJ 14z-17z/5. 1/6 AVG 5 F colder than 1/5. 1/7 Coldest temps since Dec 19 arrived. Lows were 15-20. Climat temp was 1-2F below normal and first below normal day since Dec 19, and the coldest day in parts of our NY metro-ne PA region since Dec 8th! 1/8 ne PA and nw NJ...down to just s of I80. Sleet/freezing rain overnight (0.02 melted) with a few school delays this morning as the modeled snow storm in late Dec is warmer and split, with part two coming Wednesday the 9th and doing its big snow dumps from nw PA through upper NYS-NNE, over the favored lake effect-orographic upslope areas. 0.31 storm pcpn for the calendar day. Will update 1/9-11 to close the verification. non temps-snowfall (and NOHRSC included). 729A 1/8 1/8 and 9 temp departures ~+8F each day I-80 region. 1/10 Temp anomaly within 1 degree either side of normal NYC-AVP. Attached 3 day snow fall map from NOHRSC which accounts for obs and automated assessment ending 12z/10. 1/11 Temp anomaly ~minus 6F CP-I80-AVP. 5 day mean 7th-11th was only +1+2F same area as compared to the first 6 days +10F. In other words, while modeled in late December a little on the cold side, the GEFS idea of a much colder outbreak in the period of 7-11 was correct. Image of Jan 11 mean temp departure-finally. Poorest departures in snow drought region (much below climb normal) near I80 southward. Summarizing: 1/4 snow potential was wrong...too warm. 1/8 snow potential was far too high for the 8th...storm occurred, but in two segments. Results are posted for 3 day totals below. The modeling overall had the idea. My giving up on cold in the 1/1 comment update for Jan 7-11 was wrong...the AAM/MJO etc probably had little impact on the temp results here and this was a GEFS far superior cold outbreak outlook vs EPS in the outlooked evaluation period of Dec 26-31. Simply stated EPS week 2 was wrong. I think we need to balance week2 thermal assessments and consider for review GEFS vs EPS. It's just not EC/EPS dominant, at least for this period of Jan 7-11, 2019. Thanks for having checked the verification. Walt 656A 1/12.

Guestimate .05 fell yesterday. NJ statewide for the record (topping 2011) probably needs .80, which should occur either the 28th, or 28th-31st with the two or 3 events combined. Will update late the 28th or the 29th, tho probably nothing from NJ State Climatologists office til NY eve. Thanks for your patience and hope you're having a good holiday! Walt 211PM 12/25/18

Wantage NJ 4 sw: 1.0" probably final amp for this mornings midnight to 830AM snowfall. 32.9F flake sized diminished. I see some reports in Sussex County NJ elevations near 1.5" Pave wet here at 740'MSL and roads treated. wet. Have a good prep day.