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Active late afternoon ahead for the forum and pretty sure severe in NJ and possibly LI with bands of good sized rains of 2-3 possible If there is overlap with yesterday’s 1-3 rains in parts of our CT/se NYS forum, it would be there later this evening or overnite. HRDPS looks pretty good to me. Could be a big bow echo later this afternoon in NJ? Saturday: Please see WPC and SPC D2 QPF./ SVR 716A28

Svr reports 130-515P as rcd and posted by the NWS, so far in our forum area.

Past 3 hrs severe reports SO FAR, as received and posted by the NWS. 125-425P/27

Rainfall reports of 1/2-1.9 inches so far parts of se NYS into s central CT in our forum area. A nice start... going to be interesting on some of these numbers by 03Z/Sunday...esp CT, se NYS and maybe LI. UKMET extreme of 7" may not be far off the mark...just don't know where yet. Events have to overlap. Should be a few interesting numbers of 2+" by midnight tonight.

Time on family wedding vacation for a quick post: Am adding some HRRR gust forecast data for now through 10P, then for Friday afternoon. Max Gusts..see 40-50kt via legend. Also adding 80m wind forecast for CT-LI area late today to show the backdoor cold front-thunderstorm aided southward progression. This front could nix svr risk for LI/CT tomorrow afternoon but NJ I think has a pretty decent chance of SVR Fri afternoon and maybe the SPC D2 risk may be advance northward there in tomorrows update. In the meantime, expecting lots of svr for NYC forum through 9PM today.. even e LI where best chance of rotation is modeled in the HRRR. PWAT up to 2". Lowest chance svr through this eve, I think is Ocean-Mercer I195 area. Fri: potent on the warm side of the front as exampled in some of the modeling for tomorrow. Fri night: difficult to see this as a quiet night. KI very high at night. Could be a few 1-3" clusters..PWAT 2"+ Sat: while Laura goes out somewhere through S VA-DE... there should be more convection along the cold front!

Adding more: 12z/26 UK is north and pretty wet. Unsure whether even half of these values will be realized. You'll know how we're doing by midnight Thursday night.

Throwing this out there: I took a little longer look at origination of parcels this morning that arrive NYC via 00z/26 USA Models (NAM, GFS) and this will be interesting... dewpoints in the mid 70s FL-GA-MS etc. If we get mid 70s dew points... pockets could be wetter than 3" in parts of our NYC forum in the 24 hours ending midnight Saturday night. Also, not sure how long this will last but 00z/26 EC EPS is trending wetter. Attached widespread 24 hr 1". Meanwhile, GEFS is/was still split north and south of us. Also looking at the 06z GEFS 500mb... from what I can tell Laura may not move due east thru southern VA per multiple tracks and ICON, UK) but instead start turning toward 070 degrees per 500MB seemingly backing ahead of the next Great Lakes trough. I am not writing off a closer pass (DE) for Laura's center if it indeed holds off til Saturday evening. What that might mean up here, am unsure.

I haven't looked too close.... Other's may want to chime in. SPC D2 outlook update should be out by 2P. I'd say there is chance of a TOR, provided a super cell forms. See SPC D2 and others comments including NWS offices. Thank you. 142P/26

Yes, I think everything is pointing to an active period. Thanks for the lightning post

Extracted from the tropical topic: A period of WAA showers/elevated isolated thunderstorms early Thursday north of I78 for much of the forum, then the potential nw flow severe weather event sometime between 4P and midnight late Thursday. KI 35-40 late Thursday and PWAT temporarily up to at least 1.8. Plenty of wind aloft and see SPC. Should be steamy in NYC Thu afternoon (HI 95-100?) 827A/26

Good Wednesday morning everyone, I don't see much change from yesterday's early morning expectations. Please follow SPC discussions/graphics of SVR for both Thursday and Saturday in our area, as well as NHC discussions-tracks and of course, local NWS office discussions-statements. It appears that the remnant surface center of Laura will track through southern VA or extreme northern NC Saturday and zip northeast from there. That means the strongest gusts of 40 to possibly 50 kt in squalls will occur south of NYC fortum area...probably within 70 miles of ~ the southern semicircle of Laura's passage. Therefore only an indirect influence on our area weather in terms of jet dynamics (hybrid Laura-possibly still a TS per 5AM/26 Wednesday NHC discussion) and moisture. PWAT increases to ~2" Saturday (trajectory models from the NAM and GFS ending Saturday show a vast low level moist influx ending up at 500 meters at LGA on Saturday. To get there... A period of WAA showers/elevated isolated thunderstorms early Thursday north of I78 for much of the forum, then the potential nw flow severe weather event sometime between 4P and midnight late Thursday. KI 35-40 late Thursday and PWAT temporarily up to at least 1.8. Plenty of wind aloft and see SPC. Should be steamy in NYC Thu afternoon (HI 95-100?) Friday evening-night---a period of showers and thunderstorms possible in once again WAA, well in advance of Laura. If there is a well defined wind shift boundary in our area...this could light up as a 3-6 hour period of heavy rain. Right now, an unknown and not something to count on. HI near 95? Saturday afternoon-night: PWAT2", northern fringe of Lauras moisture and a cold front should trigger a severe weather event in parts of the northeast, along with a couple pockets of heavy rain. How much severe here, if any... just follow the evolution. HI 95-100 but max value dependent on cloud cover, especially associated w Laura. I don't want to overpromise: WPC's early morning 5 day totals are generally 3/4-1.5" in our area...nothing to write home about, but potential exists for 3" totals somewhere. It appears to me the risk of heaviest totals, whereever, first is CT, followed by LI, then se NYS, with NJ maybe lagging on the lower risk for any spotty 3" totals. I may not be able to post very much until Saturday evening per the next several days of family celebrations. Appended trajectory data, SPC D2 and 4 outlooks, and the NAEFS mean pressure pattern for Saturday evening (primary low in New England but think that there should be another low somewhere near ORF?) 540A/26

So the wrap, as of 9PM tonight... not much to fill the thread, very tiny areas Sunday-Monday. A bit better today in the SPC slight risk but imo, this didn't do justice to the potential for a couple of reasons. 1) generally w-nw flow in the boundary layer which tends to be a drying downslope flow. 2) I just don't think there was enough convergence at the surface... (wsw wind ahead of cfp vs nw behind). However, we got something. The HRDPS generally did best. The SPC HREF had an idea but too far west in NJ. The HRRR after 10z/25 was not very helpful (too little), except it spoke of uncertainty. The 00z-12z/25 GFS was not very good after 18z/25... just didn't have a clue past the Appalachians. GGEM and UK were ok in a meager sense and EC had something. You're welcome to add perspective. otherwise, that was my last attempt at this thread. 927P/25 attached Storm reports and the OKX STP...one strong long continuous cell was the Port Jervis-High Point toward NYC along the NJ/NYS border... stands out a bit in the STP.

I see several reports of Snr in se NYS so far. At least something happened. Looks like NYC done around 7p per reality and the too fast 12zspc href a lns hrdps. GFS terrible for the 18z-00z modeling. Whew. One thing. Bases seem a little high so nice looking from the backside here in nW NJ but nw flow drying must be a negative factor on storm size so far

My last for a little while I think. Modeling is maybe an hr fast... HRRR still looks too dry but a consideration. 12z RDPS and SPC HREF appear best to me and certainly the GFS is not doing well after 18z. Still a little worried about all the w-nw low lvl flow and lack of well defined sfc convergence. 419P.

Possible. I’m unable to devote much time right now to weather. Please follow reality, NWS offices statements reports and the latest SPC MD which covers NJ as 80% likelihood of a watch.

Just seems marginal to me so far. Has to happen by 545 in NYC of anything substantial

Your decision. Sorry. Not at home now. So far storms are pretty small. There could larger storms by Sat night? Travel carefully

Unless anyone else see it different, it appears to me the SPC HREF and HRDPS have the best handle on 18z convection...slightly different impacts here (HREF w of NYC, 12z RDPS NYC east. 16z HRRR seems to be struggling but it also might be onto something. We'll know more by 245P.

1252P...wind backing here in Wantage to sw and that's a good sign. Also small cells in ne PA... might it be that the line moving south of central NYS gives it up soon for a PA only broken line of convection with sct svr? I like the wind backing a bit in PA, even CT but more so PA. Lot's of uncertainty.

Have just added the 12z/25 SPC HREF MEAN QPF for our area, ending 12z Wednesday, basically exiting the southern part of our forum area around 7PM this evening. This is actually somewhat optimistic for svr event potential in NJ. The max rainfall in a couple of spots with fast movers, probably no more than 2" and likely 1" or less (speed and not expecting training). One other note: saw the 16z surface map and we need more of a west or event wsw surface wind ahead of this line. Lack of convergence may nix the opportunity for storms, especially CT. Need to see more backing...AVP was fine and southern LI fine but the rest... not what I want to see. My wind is also nw... not good news. So there is opportunity, especially NJ e PA but it's not a strong likelihood til maybe down near PHL. Again, only opinion on pattern recognition.

16z=Noon developing line of act-broken showers moving steadily se near I90 NYS. Bothered that the GFS looses this convection se of the Catskills, whereas the HRRR looses some but it hasn't got a good handle on 16z. HRDPS keeps driving convection seed this afternoon. Please see 1302z SPC D1 update on wording caution regarding coverage. Finally have only seen 12z SPC HREF through 17z, but it seems to have a good handle on the midday activity. Will be curious as to how it evolves this afternoon via the modeling. Need to be a little cautious about a decent outbreak despite potency - remember this is mainly wnw-nw flow at 850MB, not a favorable direction of lift, once past the Catskills. 1205P/25

It seems to be in error... HOWEVER, I think some sort of center will remain intact across there Apps (VA-s NJ) with squally 40-50kt gust potential s of the center, which eventually probably ET transitions to an intensifying n Atlc storm in its rapid poleward departure. What has caught my attention now, is the 12z GFS with seemingly a weak boundary in CT Fri night. That may serve for a weak PRE... unsure, but any boundary in our forum area with this pwat coming up to ~2" should (corrected) let loose at night.

So far, Sunday-Monday have only produced 2-3 tiny clusters of significant activity in our area (CT,NJ), though the northern fringe of our forum (NYS/CT) is now getting decent heavy showers/thunderstorms around 8A-9A. We'll see what comes up for us this afternoon, Thursday and now a D5 SPC OUTLOOK not added here, nor topic'd, since we already have a Laura remnant topic for Fri-Sat. For many all of this will be routine, but there will be a few hot spots of rocking weather the rest of this week. Should become a little more interesting.

For what it's worth, we just had some decent west- nw wind in Wantage NJ around 750-8A, as if some dying outflow. Certainly not common for us to have 13 mph gusts at this time of August day.

I ran some backward trajectories off Hysplit to see origens of parcels. Only goes out to 22z Friday but gives an idea of origin for NYC. 918A/25