wdrag

One storm at a time. Should be fun overnight and wind down Saturday morning. Thank you for participating-contributing.

Wantage NJ 8 s of High Point. 7AM 1.9" probable final. Season 26.2. I've checked back...NWS 08z/28 ens probabiity for 1"+ missed the event near and north of I80. The 00z/28 SPC HREF MEAN snowfall missed the event near and north of I80, but the SPC HREF MAX did a much better job. Still uncertainties in the business but at least the modeled timing of the event was very good.

Serious snow up here ion Sussex County NJ. May mean school delays. 1.3" in Wantage NJ (8 s of High Point). 19.6F. S- in progress, smaller flakes but steady.

Snowfall through 12z/28 for the Wed-early Thursday event. Does not include BOS area total snow 3-5".

Tomorrow morning ensemble graphics attached. SPC HREF accum vcnty BWI-DCA may be temperated by sleet. And the NWS prob of 1" or more from the 00z/28 cycle. We'll see if this changes with the day run.

Sparta NJ CoCORAHS recorded 0.7" past 24 hours, presuming part of that was yesterday morning. All relatively miniscule.

Northern edge of another mediocre snowfall (period of snow) should be somewhere just north of I80. Better chance 1"+ I78 region.

Overnight snowfall at Wantage NJ (8 s High Point) was a solid densely packed 0.1". Total for the two parts yesterday and early today 0.3. Season 24.3. 444AM T 22.6. Everything thinly covered.

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point NJ. Had 0.2" snowfall this morning. Still a T-0.2" on some of the grassy areas, as well as all ice covered lakes etc. Roads were wet and may have been salted this morning. Currently 23.2F at 740'MSL in northern Sussex County NJ. 241PM Feb 27, 2019

Sussex NJ tempo report. Light snow now at Noon. Probably 2 mi vsby. Melting as it falls despite temp 25. Definitely melted measurable. Everything wet here at elevation near 470 ft MSL .

Wantage NJ 8 S High Point 740' MSL. 811AM/27. Few small flurries drifting down. sun dimly vsbl 19.6F and dew point still VERY dry -5.4. Lucky to have this at the t/td spread of 20F+.

Looks like the first of several snow or snow to ice-rain events over the next two weeks. This first probably has its southern edge of snow accum somewhere near I78 or I80, with the bulk of 1"+NYS-Southern New England. Flurries could begin Wednesday late morning-early afternoon but the bulk should occur very early Thursday morning.

Max gust in Wantage NJ 740'MSL (8 S High Point) was 49.9 MPH at 11PM/24 via my Ambient weather station. Today's max gust so far, 45 MPH at 208 PM. Power outages and branch debris is consistent with these values in this part of Sussex County NJ.

My understanding from NOAA contacts, is that FV3 core implements very soon, with no signifiant overall improvement, but that significant improvement follows a year or so after implementation via updated physics and resolution. Yes, right now, it is my opinion in the ne USA that the GFS is better than the coming initial FV3 version, when looking at precipitation events, only. Have not checked sfc temps nor any fields aloft.

A few notes: On branches. It is only my experience, but I think you need about .50 radial ice to crash the branches. Many utilities I think use 0.25 radial ice. I think all the nearby ASOS's recorded less than 0.20 radial. On wet snow, my experience is ~6 inches of wet snow accretion on branches will take them down (snow falling at 32-33F). Good afternoon, My last initiated post on this event. I've added two graphics to verify the event: One is the snowfall map. Legend can be helpful. And also the qpf map...both 24 hours from 12z/20-12z/21. My own Wantage amount of 1.3" might be slightly conservative. Season 24.0. The HRRRX forecast map I posted yesterday was too robust. I think the ensemble prob of various amounts as posted by the NWS can be conservative but is useful for every event and is worthy of reviewing. I noticed the EC had a 70% prob of 3+ extending newd along I95 in NJ and that did not work out either. Thanks for all the posted OBS information. Walt

Added an ensemble graphic for March 1-8 (couldn't find a March thread). It has a 80-90% probability of colder than normal here and thats pretty good for an ensemble. One comment on NAO... I think It's timing not an overall week or two duration -NAO. The storm this weekend with its near 50 MPH northwest winds late Sunday-Monday also ushers in subnormal cold the 26th through ~ 7th of March (as others have noted). It also possibly sets up a fast moving light-moderate snow event between I80-I90 next Wednesday (~27th) with decent transitory -NAO (Ie briefing blocking to our northeast, as I see it).

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 1.3" final. nice glaze but no power outages. 31.8F at 627AM. Thanks for all the observation posts. Will add a graphic later this afternoon summarizing the snowfall via NOHRSC. Posting another graphic on Feb thread, unless there is a March thread already.

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point 1.3" snow-sleet. Locked at ~25.0F past several hours.

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 740'MSL 25F at 3P with 1" new.

Sussex NJ downtown. 0.5” and last report at this location. Mostly small flake snow

Snow began Wantage Sussex NJ1130 to 1145a

Good Wednesday morning Feb 20, Two of these graphics are posted for look back tomorrow to see if they were any good. The last, to see if indeed the storm track shifts southeastward (still fast movers), and that the frigid air in Montana and occasionally the upper Midwest this month, sends a portion into the northeast. This latter is the NAEFS. The first-top graphic is the HRRRX and information not yet operational. It has potential but also varies at times. Imperfect but what it shows for accumulation from 06z/20-07z/21 is imo, I think reasonable unless others here see flaws ( I do think it has ridges high bias). Legend along the bottom should help. The middle graphic is the WPC ensemble probability for more than 2" of snow today. Legend lower left again with the probs. Biggest chance...s Central PA. 649A/20.

I in Wantage may not be able to post til ~230P. Have at it. Another mess. Posting some graphics by 7A, on the 20-21 Threat thread, to look back tomorrow and see performance.

Have posted the snowfall/qpf on the Feb 17-18 ops thread, if you're interested in a look back. Here also, i just want to post something... that has been excellently modeled I think beyond 10 days in advance by the GEFS especially (EPS was more tempered). That means by the 26th... a small part of Tennessee could have 15" of rain in February while a part of Kentucky 10". You can use this plus the 7 day QPF from WPC to be somewhat impressed. Light Red is 5+, purple 10+ the past two weeks.

I just wanted to post what happened for the Sunday night-Monday Feb 17-18 event. NOHRSC image interp snowfall... very very good product! and the NWS multi platform QPF... I think the QPF was little less than modeled by all models n of I80 and that hurt us a little ne PA/nw NJ. Any questions...just ask. I'll be away until 5P today.