wdrag

Good Friday morning all, No new topics. Heat: EC op is quite warm versus GFS/GGEM/UK Wed and even Thu. 850MB is basically showing ~16C-17C at 12z daily beginning Saturday forward continuing through Wed and 20-21C Thu-Fri. That suggests to me a heat wave begins Saturday or Sunday for our non marine influenced and less than 500'MSL portions of sw CT, se NYS, NJ, lasting into Tuesday. Wednesday shows great modeling uncertainty with the 00z/21 GFS MEX MOS possibly 11 degrees too cool?? Lots of bust potential on temps Wednesday. Then, a good chance 90+ Thu and possibly Fri with the HI near 100 on one of those days. Tropic related: 00z/21 EC op is also showing tropical moisture and the TD13 850 vort feeding us Friday the 28th as modeled PWAT increases to ~2." TD13 850MB vort could end up a lot further south but for now, that vort center seems to assist the EC QPF development in the northeast Friday. Short term: Might be a couple of light showers early Saturday se NYS/NJ as gentle WAA develops, and a slightly better chance of a late afternoon shower or thunderstorm there. Sunday: modeling has diminished interest. However, the afternoon still has the makings for a few pockets of 2-3" thunderstorm clusters, probably not FF/probably not SVR ,but interruptive for some of us, with PWAT near 1.7", decent CAPE, KI and SBLI. Most favored parts of our area are NJ/SE NYS and CT. Tuesdays (25th) trough or cfp could be interesting for many of us. ? Next Wed-Thu-Fri: Lots to monitor until models draw consensus. KI eventually may rise to 40 for a time on one of these days, along a possible eventual tropical moisture infusion?? 740A/21

Lots of model differences tropics to se Canada the next week. Since I had a sneak broad peek at 850 temps this coming week... am not straying from the 810A post. Need to figure out if the 12z/20 EC is loner on big heat this week... has 21C 850MB T at NYC 12z Thu. I see the UK/GGEM/GFS want to try to cool it down mid week as does the 12z/20 GEFS. EC op says no go but have not looked at EPS nor high res EC. For me, staying on course with the EC for now but can see it/and I may need to adjust with a faster CFP Wed or Thu? Just don't know. .

Good Thursday morning to all, Refreshingly cool mornings. Been fun. Back to heat soon... "could" be 6 day heat wave beginning Saturday parts of ne NJ, lower Hud Valley, interior w CT portions of our forum. Marginal near 90F temps this weekend and interruptions by thunderstorms are possible Sunday-Tuesday, Thursday. Do think that ~95F heat likely for a day or so, probably restricted to next Wednesday or Thursday. HI near 100 on a couple of days, for now again, next Wed or Thu. Convection: still small chancey WAA convection Friday night-Saturday, mainly NJ. Potential Topic is Sunday: Combination of EC modeled CAPE over 2000J, KI well up in the 30s, PWAT near 1.8", 15-25KT 700MB westerly flow, an approaching weakening 500MB short wave having lifted newd from the lower Miss Valley and something I missed yesterday, is an unexpectedly strong upper wind field; should allow for strong thunderstorms (a couple of episodes possible) Noon-10PM. Best chance for pockets 2-3" of gusty storms seems to initially be NJ, but may shift northward to se NYS-CT late in the day-evening. Also, I can see isolated SVR and an eventual marginal risk by SPC down here in the NYC forum. No topic at this time for two reasons: Not sure we can squeeze 4" in 1 or 2 locations-for now probably not, and severe is not a lock since wind fields marginal. Still, am pretty sure golf and other outdoor activity will be interrupted by Tstorms sometime during the afternoon. Monday: a bit drier dew points but a surface trough and still sizable 1500+J CAPE and KI decent, should allow for isolated or scattered gusty thunderstorms. Tuesday: I think conditions may be a bit more favorable for scattered afternoon thunderstorms but as of now...Sunday afternoon-evening is when I think the most important risk day, prior to the probable Thursday ish CFP which has less CAPE but the highest KI ribbon of the week, in addition to probably the hottest airmass of the week. A note: Lower dew points on Wednesday the 26th along with warmer 500MB temps should preclude thunder from happening in our NYC forum area on Wednesday. Just hot. Finally: the tropics. Not posting to the tropic page since they have it covered and am only looking on possible impacts here. Not guaranteed, since tracking is part of the problem, that two tropical systems will affect the Gulf Coast next week (Laura could still miss east of the Gulf Coast). For our area, beginning Friday the 28th onward, I could see some sort of impact here. For now lets it keep it to some moisture since the general flow across the northern USA is westerly tending to shunt systems east or east northeast at our threat latitude (north of 35N). The upper level jet across NNE/Nova Scotia becomes favorable (RRQ). Long WAYS to go on this but it's not the same as ISAIAS. As of now, there is a much greater chance for a miss to the southeast of us, than the more favored trough-ridge pattern of the August 4. 810A/20

saw them... it may be that PHI-EM are doing storm survey right now. You'll probably know sooner than I, but I doubt if anything will officially pot on this for a little while, pending data assessment. If they do go with a TOR..will update the graphic when I get a chance. Thanks and Later, Walt

Added unexpected svr reports from this morning.

Just checked LGA was 95 on Sep 3, 1993. So until someone says I have it wrong, I'll go w EWR last 100 on Sep 3. Probably moot to discuss much more than what we have, except we all know...it's warmer these recent decades.

Yes... I'll check again. Let's check last 100 at EWR.

I see a METS FAN is watching a Braves fan. On climo... it's biased down. I did go to ACIS and check EWR last 100. Sept 3, 1993. This might need to be rechecked. Walt

Yes...I agree on EC one my go-to's for convection is the KI, very very well modeled by the EC for several cycles and the reasoning for the recent posts about a band of showers this morning NJ-LI. Through this afternoon-eve: Think there is a continued risk of isolated hail/svr LI, maybe coastal CT, into mid afternoon, with the more favored area for severe seemingly over the ocean s of LI. A new southeastward moving line of heavy showers is possible late this afternoon-eve nw NJ into NYC at sunset but that should have less chance of being strong, tho not out of the question briefly a torrent. Fri night-Sunday: More heavy showers and thunderstorms. Fri night-early Saturday is chancey and associated with WAA + moisture transport from the MS-TN low aloft leaking northeastward into the confluence zone. That moisture increase I think sets the stage for slow moving 2-3" pockets of big convection near NYC Sunday afternoon, ahead of the weakening shortwave, in an axis of high CAPE (2000+J), and KI looks fairly large as well along with 90 degree heat. This may become a topic eventually, but not for severe...more so intense rainfall. Right now PWAT is forecast near 1.8"...a little lower than I'd like for Thunderstorm production of 4". Next week: interesting in it's variety of options, including eventual infusion of tropical event moisture and an approaching cold front from the northwest, developing a swath of rather high KI ahead of it and temps-heat index ahead of the front well up in the 90s with near 100 not impossible on both, for one of those days. Forecasting 100 in late August is not smart several days in advance so will favor near 100HI eventually next week, but mid 90s temps (non sea breeze coastal plain locations ), in part due to wind direction and recent wetness. Should become interesting for convection. On eventual Laura/Marco: for now prior to the 29th, the greater moisture contribution seems locked mostly south of 35 N latitude by westerly flow at our latitude but should there be any slow downs of northward advance (northward advance track in the Gulf States has to be west of 70 degrees longitude in order of for a moisture contribution in this projected flow pattern), it then becomes a little more interesting toward the 30th. Below, added an update to yesterdays severe reports, Mid-2AM Monday 8/18. 1108A/19

CoCoRAHS 24 hr rainfall (multi bands of showers/tstms Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning). Note bands of 1"+. My 0.42 is in the northern part of Sussex County but does not show since am not a CoCoRAHS observer. This graphic gives us an idea of what happened but not necessarily a completely clear picture. Neither does this sensor-radar mix image that has been appended. I do think we need to consider adding PWS's that have a quality assurance filter placed on them to at least the sensor-radar image. I think they could help modify the bands. A friend's PWS ~ 7 miles away, had 1.68" in Frankford Township NJ (Sussex County)... as compared to my 0.42" in Wantage. Both are not well defined in the graphics. Finally, there was a hail report from another friend in Frankford Township, probably pea, but we need crowd sourcing mPING back so we can get a better grip on the realities as they unfold. Unsure when mPING returns. I do know that Frankford Township hail defined cell had a DVIL in excess of 35 and so no surprise when the hail report came through. I'm betting more unreported hail occurred in our forum area, especially NNJ and Orange County. 1212P/18

Good Tuesday morning everyone, I see the overnight band of storms faded in it's intensity before making it to NYC. I have to think there will be a few more late reports of severe overnight around 1AM, at least per the high res velocity data I saw going thru nw NJ and Orange County NY vicinity Port Jervis ~1AM. However, if not, then at least we got some rain and thunder early today. I don't have new topic material for now. Today: Might be an isolated shower in nw NJ and se NYS this afternoon that tracks into CT/LI this evening but a long shot. Wednesday: suspect a narrow band of showers of across NJ and possibly LI early Wednesday with a very brief instability burst. Sat 22nd-Monday 24th: looks a little more interesting, especially Sunday in NJ/LI, for thunderstorms. Late next week: Going to be interesting to watch tropics and northern stream interactions next week. For now, tropic moisture should be shunted east-northeast, to our south but we'll have to look for possible changes in the northern stream Great Lakes area trough. If some of that trough splits south into Tennessee (long shot right now) then we can bring up some of that tropical moisture. For now, most 00z/18 ensemble members of the GEFS, EPS/NAEFS say it stays southeast of us guided by a coherent northern stream west to east dominant flow. 539A/18

NYC/CT...storms will probably make it with damaging wind by 3AM across parts of our forum... NYC area into sw CT...am pretty sure. Penty of CAPE in place. That may[ have been the difference for this past evenings 8PM storms in NYC area... CAPE wasn't already in place...was accompanying the the rain. This is the real deal, as they say. This may be last post of the night. Walt

37 MPH in Wantage NJ at 105AM. Max so far here.

Interesting next 3 hours NYC area and LI. Cell mergers... Intense rainfall in a few spots with 1" and maybe some pea sized hail and gust 40-50 MPH. Something to watch for as your modeled available CAPE looks decent. Also, whether this verifies, unlikely...but the HRRR is producing a near svr gust in Ulster County around 05z. Kind of late at night but i see a second band overnight. 643P/17 thunder and rain.

Passing this on to those who can access digital VIL.. if we you get a value over 35, specially for 2 or 3 scans... look for hail. We have some hail up here in Sussex County around 535PM, Frankford Township...size unknown. That was also our first thunder of the day here in Wantage, despite two previous shower episodes. Now at 623P... total rainfall .20. Not like some stripes of heavier showers over an inch. I see a decent storm approaching Manville NJ and radar does detect small hail from that one.

Tropical page is beginning to become active... does look interesting middle and end of next week up to at least 35N. I didn't say "promising" but for me, interesting in the form of moisture 27th-29th. We'll see how long this is worth monitoring for our area? 10 days out, should say enough for the uncertainty. 423P/17

Wantage NJ 25 MPH gust 202P with the group of showers. Seeing healthy rains in a few spots of ne PA including up to .96" so far near Dingmans. Should get more interesting vicinity White Plains, EWR, NYC, DXR 4P-10P.

Here is the wrap from my perspective, using CoCoRaHS and radar best estimate (2 day since it's 12z-12z). CoCoRaHS TWO DAY I don't think works correctly on some of the stations, either that or the reporting posting mechanism may have some sort of cumulative error. So for CoCoRaHS I used the one day, but some rain occurred prior to the ~12z/16 reports and is not included on this map. AND, the radar sensor blend, please ignore extreme w Orange County westward to n of Scranton and sw NYS when all that occurred Saturday. In Summary...you can see two bands pretty clearly, one from the Philly area into nw NJ to near HFD. A second band from Ocean County across Suffolk. Had this been mostly snow, it would have been a widespread 6-12 hour advisory event with pockets of Warnings, especially Ocean and Suffolk counties. The EC and UK Operational runs were terrible for our NYC forum area until the 00z/16 cycle. The EPS finally started picking up on something with the 12z/15 cycle. The NAM was too heavy, especially near I80, but it was the one that suggested to me that two bands were going to develop. Placement is never 100% accurate but the NAM had enough idea for us to discuss except NYC (less than 1/2" there). The NAM 06z/16 cycle was a miserable failure less than 5 hours prior to the start. In the end, if we can blend all the models, we get some sort of muted idea of what should happen, without the extremes. It is unusual that the EC/UK models didn't have much of an idea of what would happen til the 00z/16 cycle. Timing start: Most models were too slow. NAM was the best, I thought. Timing end: It appeared to me the models were bit too slow in ending the qpf. 1123A/17

No topic on svr for the 5PM-midnight time frame in our area, especially CT, vcnty NYC and LI but to me it continues to look pretty good. CAPE arrives a little late in the day but with the wind at 500MB increasing and multimodels showing increasing convection in the 6P-11P time frame, not sure why it won't happen. You're welcome to add the reasons it won't. For now no topic til we see how this evolves this afternoon. I'm looking for several svr reports in our area late today or this eve. The second trailer batch between midnight and 4am may have gusty winds but should not be quite as strong as that of the 6P-8P time frame. 1044A/17

Good Monday morning, No topic yet for late today, but still looks pretty good to me for isolated svr 4P-10P. SPC has nothing for most of our area so will await their 13z update before a possible topic post.

NYC forum imo, still looks good for isolated severe 4P-10P Monday, with a secondary band of gusty showers-iso thunder around midnight-3AM Tue. No topic. SPC D2 no longer has marginal risk. So they are seeing something I'm not as CAPE, 500 MB wind, KI, time of day in a low 80s max temp environment look decent to me for a marginal risk. 509P/16

Minor .01 additional amount for Wantage NJ in sw moving low top wind driven drizzle-light rain around 445P. Total a meager .08 but we'll take it.

0.07 Wantage and probably ended up 1/2" too high on all I80 south expectations. Will post CoCORAHS map around Noon Monday. Still, had this been winter... the modeling problem was excessive at 24 hours (18z/15) and even the 06z/16 NAM was poor-reversing it's excesses of the 15th to very low qpf values for today. Difficult to understand such a lack of agreement in the very short term (non convective driven).

So far as of 1030AM attached, NJ only. Back edge of the w NJ steady band will progress east of I95 by evening but low top junk drizzle sprinkles will sweep west into w NJ this afternoon. Biggest rains after 2P should shift to all of LI Am okay with the two bands through 2P, thereafter we should see some sort of merger NYC eastward. Added MARFC fall analysis last 12 hours. seems a little shy in Ocean County.

All good and on target for most of our area. Doing much better in se NYS and nw CT than anticipated yesterday. already 1/2-1.1" southern Ocean County. Plenty more to come. 924A/16