wdrag

ENH...enhanced risk. Just follow any warnings. This is trying to convey reality - situational awareness and advancing northeastward for several hours. Let's see what happens.

I may be losing a data resource due to power outage??? Unsure... will be off line til 1115A. Power outages increasing N of VA now. 1018A/4

The following is for information only. NOT media for rebroadcast. I'm borrowing from another highly reliable source, with whom I've not had time to discuss permission transmitting his information. BUT... thisto highlight the seriousness of the on-going event to motivate concern. Short hammering event. Be smart when NWS issues the warnings. Isaias has been overperforming in terms of tornadoes, with many confirmed touchdowns overnight and this morning between NC and Delaware. Tornado outbreaks in TCs often have a diurnal component, but temperatures staying around 80 (with dewpoints well into the 70s) northeast of the storm's center created sufficient instability to accompany the intense low-level shear and create a night/early morning outbreak. Significant damage in Suffolk, VA, damage in southern MD and on the eastern shore, and a possible ongoing long-track event through central Delaware. While the main area of interest right now is in DE/NJ shifting into southeast New England this afternoon, there are active tornado warnings as far north as New Hampshire, and SPC has issued an ENH risk for an area that includes NYC metro.

HRRRX wind gusts tend to run high...a bit high but not more than 10kt in my estimation. Iso seeing HRRRX winds come down 5 or 10 kt is good. t's cranking s NJ -Wallops now and I think the values I'm seeing in the 10z guidance will be accurate to within 5kt.

I think but cant really analyze well from my home view. Check satellite and other mets may be commenting on this. No question there weill be a brief 1 or 2 hour shot of 40+KT westerlies behind Isaias. Thats what should get nw NJ hills after 4P.

Cape May now gusting over 50 knots! Would say s 1/2 NJ coast fully involved through 2PM. Quiets down rapidly mid or late afternoon. MY Error on Brick NJ report which was last evening. edited 957A.

62 Knots at 948A Ocean City - South Beach in far s NJ. May be a little high but there should soon be a response in s NJ - power outages.

Much of DE with 50 Knots or greater since 9AM, including GED, DOV and many coastal reporting sites (courtesy wxflow etc). Posted a map of SVR/TOR/Rain reports since 6A... many reports not yet shared officially for the LSR. On-going too fast to get the data out (I suspect).

Many reports 55-60 knots Wallops Island VA north to Dewey Beach DE and now near 50 knots parts of the extreme s NJ coast.

Rain, clearly there has been a west shift, even since yesterday. Still, squalls are coming to coastal NJ, maybe TORS etc. On wind: Power outages spreading north. HRRRX is coming down 5 knots on expected's for today. That is good news for a little less damage inland NJ.

Wachapreague VA 58 KT around 9A.

Winds gusting ~60 MPh now Dewey Beach DE to the MD/VA coasts. 845A/4

Since around 12z 56 KT ECG, ORF 53kt, and the nw wind at RIC 44kt... that's the wrap around back side tail get BWI, nW NJ se NYS and just forming now, i think.

It's coming...gusts 50KT e NC, and many 40s in eastern VA now. Best way I can demo... and will try to improve. Power outages 715A. All sorts of TOR warnings from PHL and near BWI down into eastern VA.

NYC Forum: Have nothing to add forecast wise... prep for power outages and what you will do without power for 24 hours, especially rural areas. I expect to lose internet sometime between 2-5P this afternoon here in nw NJ, after which I'll be out of contact til internet returns. IF impact ends up less, then good; but if not prepared and it goes as the overnight modeling anticipates, you may wish you had planned. Those mitigation strategies need to be completed by Noon at the latest. My only regret for this thread was not adding SVR risk last evening for the forum...just was too tired thinking about the overall wind/rain impact. TOR threat today as per other posters... coastal NJ northeastward. Follow SPC/local NWS issuances. My preparation suggestion is everyone in our NYC forum have enough cash on hand to weather no power for a while, a full gas tank, and be aware you may not be able to move around in some areas where gusts tear down trees/wires. I could see power out for a week in hard to reach rural areas of CT, if 70 knot gusts materialize for coastal NJ/LI/western New England while lesser 55kt anticipated high terrain eastern NYS/nw NJ. Flood threat in our forum area is mainly northern NJ/se NYS, and it may not be too bad in our area. 530A/4

TOMS River from a thunderstorm peak G 61 kt at 751P KMJX 032353Z AUTO 25041G61KT JFK 45 kt right now.

Agreed on poor mesoscale modeling via the NAM/ARW. Second slug in VA will find its way up into e PA maybe NJ overnight. If we get a subtle sic wind convergence zone, could easily be some 4+ inch amounts by morning. Not staying up to witness...instead get up at 4A and see what's what. Busy day for NY forum tomorrow including the big damaging winds (fully leafed trees)/rains/FFW's. Could see widespread power outages in the afternoon/eve. Am aware of svr leading edge this eve in NJ heading north on the nose of the 850jet/fgen/waa but just didn't have the heart to get this mixed in as well... too much other high impact weather ahead. The TOR's could be a problem tomorrow, if they occur coastal NJ/LI/CT. 911P

All in NYC forum. I have no answer on how bad, but definitely more serious than first considered when we started the thread days ago. My preparation suggestion is everyone in our NYC forum have enough cash on hand to weather no power for a while, a full gas tank, and be aware you may not be able to move around in some areas where gusts tear down trees/wires. I could see power out for a week in hard to reach rural areas, if 70 knot gusts materialize. LI/New England and high terrain eastern NYS/nw NJ as well as coastal NJ hit the hardest. Rainfall... 2-8" most of our area by 9PM Tuesday, maybe a little higher in tonight-Tuesday overlap. Will check 5P NHC and try too follow up this eve and Tue am. 229P/3

Elevations on the backside may take a bit of a beating tomorrow night when the wind turns west...could gust 50-60MPH at High Point NJ and if we have 8" of rain by then(???), uproots etc with power out. Will need to see day cycles etc. If it does so here, might do the same in Litchfield County if it tracks near HFD?

Good Monday morning everyone here in the NYC forum: Will add a cumulative rainfall map from yesterdays nw NJ totals, done 924AM. Legend has the conversion to inches...mostly e PA and nw NJ. See NHC/SPC/WPC/NWS office discussions for details on tonights, and Tuesday's separate event rainfalls but all tropical related, also surge/wind/isolated SVR and maybe even a TOR near and east of the center. PRE tonight?-no guarantee, with EC modeling way west to near ITH-BFD while other models 'try' to develop something in western NJ or eastern PA tonight northward into the Hud Valley-Catskills-Berks by dawn Tuesday. Very unsure how this will work--could be pockets of 4+ inches or 1 or 2 long narrow bands?. Isaias wind Tuesday afternoon-evening. 00z/3 ensembles have track axis slightly different: EPS slightly east of GEFS. No matter, it appears to me that LI, especially e LI and parts of CT will see squally wind gusts of 50-60 knots, power outages but not that much rain. Sometimes, these TS's have a surprise couple of hours of wrap-around strong west wind of 40-50 kt on the underside of the departing storm - that would be Tuesday evening for us. Isaias direct rainfall: Heaviest rain and associated FF risk should be in NJ/se NYS and ne PA for our NYC forum. Details to be determined but am going to post FFG graphics to show some of the more vulnerable locations, presuming 4+" occurs Tuesday afternoon. MARFC 1 hour FFG blue colors I'd say are vulnerable pending heavy rain actually occurring, and then added the 6 hr guidance where 4" in 6 hours I'd think would prompt a warning somewhere in that county where guidance is under 4". Now we need to see what happens. A side note: not major but possibly of interest. One thing that does happen with tropical southerly winds that I noticed in the past, lift going over the CT shore line enhances rainfall remarkably a few miles north of I95 in CT. Something to see if occurs tonight-Tuesday. Power outages: while concentrated east of the center, I can also see problems over interior NJ and se NYS in squalls, broken tree limbs-associated power outages Tuesday afternoon-evening. Not saying there will be, but in my mind, not out of the question. I'll ensure I have enough cash on hand in case of any long duration power outage, and a full tank of gas, even here in far nw NJ. Not likely that this will come in handy here, but trying to think ahead. Added 00z/3 GEFS/EPS 850 wind ensembles for 18z Tue, as well as the brutal operational UKMET 850 wind field and the less impressive GGEM. 639A/3

BUST... maybe too much dry air swept in aloft after the morning FF vicinity KRDG, or maybe too much shear aloft and/or not enough surface convergence on the weak front moving into our area... not much happened. Attaching a graphic of storm reports...the morning stuff in se PA, the late day in Litchfield County. Modeling had hints of problems, especially afternoon but even there it underplayed the 0.1-1" of repetitive late day showers, thunderstorms that occurred in far eastern PA into extreme nw NJ. Later this morning, I'll add the cumulative rainfall for yesterday. Note: NWS in some areas does not use most weather underground reports (unofficial) but 4-7" occurred in the FF area near RDG-Kutztown from multiple sources. A fire is a fire, no matter what platform/person sees it, via crowd sourcing, especially multiple independent sources.

Thanks for the OKX PRE!! Good... this if it happens can be as big in a narrow 40 mile wide swath thats 100 mi or longer , as Isaias...IF it occurs. Not classic but potential. You saw the 4-7" reports near RDG this morning... suspect same but longer-wider and a bit different axis location than that of this morning. Big storm seems to be going w of ABE now..digital storm tops near 55K. Have less than 2 hours to get it out of PA and extreme nw NJ and Orange County before drying overwhelms (I think).

No change in thinking of PRE Monday niight-early Tue and then the 6 hour slug of R++ Tue afternoon/eve with G 50kt e LI. Is anyone in NWS writing about PRE potential? Haven't had time to check. I may be in error on a PRE convergent area as discussed this morning. ??? Follow SPC/NHC/WPC and local NWS office for up to date details-discussions., Offline til 9PM ish. 516P/2

Liking the potential to rip a line through NJ and maybe e se NYS by 7PM ish. UNSURE if it can happen. Has to develop very fast by 615PM. Think most favorable area for SVR in 8PM-midnight slot in our area is I78-I95 and maybe CT. I see a boundary in e PA with drier air on sw wind with decent sly flow ahead. Consider this very quick and potentially fraught with error. Low confidence. 514P

Dry air aloft definitely coming into e PA of Hazleton. Like the potential but may take awhile to get this going... not give ing up. If it goes, plenty of wind to draw down. For now last post for a few hours. I see HI in s NJ/PHL area 98- ~105 at 1P. Primed but need the subtle trough to activate. 120/2