wdrag

Good Tuesday morning everyone, (Feb 4), Thinking a few hours of ice is pretty good bet ne PA/nw NJ -I84 Thursday morning with delays. Saturday night or Sunday morning (Feb 8-9): Not agreed upon in the operational models but ensembles and several models have a little snow for NYC-LI. I would think it would be cold enough for a light snow accumulation but timing with surface temps will play a role. Models generally see potential for several inches accumulation... especially west of NYC. Not a guarantee but potential exists. A seasonably cold weekend finally! No graphics today. Negative EPO still being modeled. Unsure of its impact here in NYC. I wont be back on the forum til probably sometime tonight. 549A/4

Good Monday morning everyone, Pretty windy at our house in Wantage NJ the past two hours with gusts ~25MPH. Still not much to write about for NYC-LI. Action next two weeks focused I84 corridor northward and mostly as ice episodes. Adding 3 graphics for ensemble model background as of 09z/3. Didn't start a specific topic for the 6th-7th since I've gotten the sense that if NYC is not involved in accumulative snow it's not worth a specific event topic. So... have remained within this thread. Left graphic: NWS ensemble chance of 1" of snow Wednesday into early Thursday. Note the 80% probability from the legend (orange) into ne PA with 70% nw CT to extreme northwest Sussex County NJ. The non-winter continues south of PA down to NC. Issue time ~9z/3 Center graphic: NWS ensemble chance of glaze Wednesday, and especially Thursday morning prior to daybreak. These probabilities may?? be too low by 30-40%. You can see the axis is favoring PA/nw NJ. Issue time ~9z/3 Right graphic: NWS ensemble chance of 3+ inches of snow Thursday into early Friday (7A Thursday-7A Friday). The blue 50% or greater is basically just north of I90. I do want to say though that some sort of icing is going to occur in most of the green area Thursday morning down to I78, even though it wont snow much, if at all there. This ensemble was derived mostly from 18z/2 guidance since it was issue around 05z/3 prior to the arrival of 00z/3 ensemble guidance. Wind: The ECMWF continues to forecast a brief period of gusty winds between 50-65 MPH in the I95 corridor from BOS-DC Friday morning. Northward extent right now is uncertain. 1104z/3

Wantage NJ 1.6" final. Settling occurred so this may be conservative. Roads generally wet and some pavements have quite a bit of melting. 2.0 for the day. 18.7 for the season.

Wantage NJ 1.1" of wet snow at 830P. Continues to snow. This may be my last report til 430A. 32.7F Roads wet otherwise everything covered.

Wantage NJ now 0.8" solid with roads here wet, slight slush. snowing fairly large flakes. wet snow. Total with the morning 0.4 included is 1.2" today. Have seen a report near Dingmans in Pike County PA of 2".

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 0.5" new on all. SB ~344P. Most of the snowfall since 515P. 32.7F after a high of 40.3F (0.2F less than yesterday. Snowflakes of moderate size. WET snowfall. It's nice again here after we completely melted this mornings 0.4" around 1030A. Enjoy the game. Walt

By the way, I have checked the CoCoRAHS reps and widespread 0.2-0.8" fell overnight in ne PA and far nw NJ. Wantage total now 17.1". The 5am viewing of small flake snow was uplifting...no matter how paltry. Roads were salted here at 530A and driveways were still icy at 8AM, so even the little ones can have impact (bone breakers - if not careful). It all adds up. I think we love the KU storms but they aren't often... I didn't count them up but my guess is we average ~1-2/year with some years ni,l like this one, but some years 3. Maybe someone will chime in on the mean of KU's/yr? In any case it's inspiring to see a little snow. NYC should not be surprised for a little wet snow mix this eve, and no acc. Not sure about all the big warmup for us tomorrow-Tuesday either... my guess is with sunshine we can crack 50 in the non sea breezed areas. Interior nw NJ Tuesday might have a hard time exceeding 40s. BL temps are not modeled quite as warm up here along I80. EC was pretty quick past two cycles spreading a bit of snow-ice down into southern NYS early next week.

Just had an interesting experience. (Nice to have a day off when this happens.) Our home and the one next door... at about 850AM.... with temp at 32.4 but sun shining on the roofs... melted the snow which suddenly broke through marginal dams and cascaded-spilled into downspouts and onto the porch roof below.

Don, I like stats and I expect you will be right... but am a little concerned in short term that all the excessive warmth is still within the snow-ice threshold window. Also, i don't like seeing the EPO being forecast consistently negative as I see AK is trending warmer both aloft and the surface, via the anomalies as you posted and and the NAEFS as well. This shall be interesting for ice events I84 region northward the next two-three weeks as a storm track from the southern Plains into the northeast exists, with multiple events already modeled and a very warm southern USA fighting for dominance against a normally cold southern Canada. Also, it seems to the polar vortex is slowly shifting southeastward out of the arctic and not quite sure how the AO is forecast so darn strong? This is probably my error in viewing the hemispheric pattern? For us, timing the departing cold highs to our northeast will be critical for ice, vs rain knowing I95 NYC southward probably is cooked for any significant snow.

Good Sunday morning everyone, Wantage NJ 0.4" 230A-530A. Season now 17.1" Just salted the roads here at 700'MSL. Here's my thinking this afternoon-evening... based on strong WAA with pretty FGEN in eastern PA late today weakening as it transits east to NYC-BOS so that pretty good snowfall out in ne PA/extreme nw NJ weakens eastward and probably melts NYC. If the FGEN shows sign of improvement for NYC I'll add the graphic later today. Snow redevelops this afternoon in ne PA between 2-3PM and spreads into nw NJ around 4P, diminishing to flurries or freezing rain sprinkles around 11PM. Should see between 1/2-2" with the snow coming down at a pretty good rate around sundown with untreated slippery roads developing in high terrain---more so than the impact of early this morning. Heaviest snow probably Pike County to northern Wantage-Vernon-High Point where I think an inch is likely, despite NWS and EPS statistics not very enthusiastic for 1". I'm pretty sure we have significant ice threat (glaze with front end snow-sleet totals probably under 3") for the I84 region into nw NJ Thursday. NYC might have a touch of snow/sleet but statistically not promising for much if any of both. Wind briefly above 45 MPH may be a problem for NYC-LI Friday. The ice and wind threats for Thu-Fri have been signaled for several days by the various models, with latitude of the primary impacts showing some variability. Timing could of both could be a player in cancels-delays. 715A/2

This continues to be pretty exciting for us up here in nw NJ, considering the winter in progress. 0.4" at 508A. Some of this is coming to the NYC northern suburbs now. Enjoy every minutes of this. Poor picture from my I8 but here is is. mPing reporting from up here.

No separate thread for this minor on-going event here in nw NJ but just saying: Wantage NJ at 430A/2 0.2" snowing steadily small flakes. all surfaces covered except roads wet with some covered spots. 32/30. This is a GFS miss. NAM and all other non GFS models had this minor early Sunday event. Am thrilled for seeing early morning minor snowfall. Yesterdays 0.1" had melted by 9a. Cheers from the hills of nw NJ 740'MSL.

Good morning, Wantage NJ had 0.1" snow last evening 830-930P. It melts today but am pretty sure many of us will see a little wet snow late tonight-early Sunday and possibly again late Sunday afternoon or evening. Minor accums probably restricted to the suburbs north and west. I wont be surprised to see a new 1/2 or even 1 inch total in hilly terrain of nw NJ by 11PM Sunday. Haven't started a thread since its nothing much, and occurs the beginning of Feb so this thread works. Pretty strong northern stream short wave passage early Sunday, the one that didn't phase with the southeastern USA short wave... followed by rather strong warm advection Sunday evening, are the probable event drivers for our area. As it turns out, while the multi modeled ensembles (EPS/GEFS) since ~the 18th of January pegging ~Feb 1 were much too heavy on QPF, it seems their signal wont end up a total bust with minor snow nw suburbs and just about everyone in our forum coverage area having had measurable precipitation between 8PM last night (31st) and 11PM Sunday Feb 2. 605A/1

Wantage NJ Final for 1/31: 0.1" snowfall ~830-930P time frame Jan 31. 16.7" for the season.

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. snowing lightly. melting on contact 34F. 832P/31

Hi. The following 3 images support Don's morning post (Feb 6-28). Warmer than normal and probably less than normal snow in an above normal precip pattern. In good health, we can discuss and for that I am thankful, despite the poor eastern USA winter. 445P/31

No question its warm around this warm, possibly similar Feb week two as well... there is frequently a BUT. From a forecaster perspective, 12F above normal down here is still a low of 27 in Sussex County NJ... and IF with precip, that would be ice. Timing timing? We'll see if the predominant warm modeling down to the I84 corridor survives between Feb 5-7. Worthy of monitoring for a while, til this too is not possible. That's my concern...ice down to I84 from time to time Feb 5-7 in this still anomalously warm pattern. Gotta run, Walt 850A/31

Good bye warm January, and from what I can tell, it's a warm February, though hopefully not as anomalously warm as January 2020. My guess is that some of us will be excited to see a few flakes of snow in the air by Monday morning Feb 3, at least in the northwest suburbs where a slightest covering might occur in a few locations. Make this, another good day. 606A/31

Good Thursday morning (Jan 30) everyone, Feb 1 event ensembles for many many days apparently has faded, at least the coastal fringe portion. Not much to talk about for NYC metro = Feb 1. The 7th-17th models an active southern stream but whether any of these northeastward moving qpf events have enough cold air for wintry precip here is debatable. These are opportunities but the way winter has occurred since ~ Dec 22... we might not be able to spruce up the landscape with much snow? Make this a good day, no matter what. 521A/30

Good Wednesday morning (Jan 29) everyone, Opportunity continues for a little wet snow Saturday-February 1 on the northern fringe of a rapidly developing coastal. Plenty of uncertainty including boundary layer temps for any accumulation (even rain) along I95 (NYC), and qpf. Looks to be a minimal event but the plumes from the GEFS offer a little bit of snow to NYC and the entire I84 corridor. The NAEFS which shifted southeastward yesterday remains static there, but EPS is a little more robust, and certainly more robust than the GEFS-but still minor at this point. No graphics at this time - conservative approach due to uncertainties 72 hours in advance and at worst minimal impact to travel. 1127z/29.

Feb 1: Flip-flopping ensemble QPFs. Uncertainty with the 00z/28 NAEFS a diminished qpf for our area, the 00/28z EPS continues with an event, albeit boundary layer accumulation problems for NYC while the 00z/28 GEFS was very conservative on QPF. Proceeding with uncertainty but I expect an event of some sort for Feb 1. Best chance for snow accumulation seems high terrain N and W of NYC. No graphics today due to lack of ensemble consensus. 00z/28 GEFS plumes still have snow acc for NYC and POU but am a little concerned about boundary layer warmth for NYC (melting). Also, phasing if any, seems delayed-further east in the GEFS while the EPS sharpens the trough further west than it did yesterday. Sometimes we have to wait til about 72 hours in advance of the date before the models grasp the sharpness of a short wave and/or any phasing option. I would think the 00z/29 cycle should have a little more consensus. In any case... whatever occurs does not seem to be blockbuster... too fast...only a 12 hour event? Hopeful only notes: am thinking a storm track from the lower Miss Valley into the northeast Feb 7-17 but whether we have enough cold air available and timed correctly? This is based on NAEFS overall changes in N American temp distribution and both EPS/GEFS showing an active southern stream in the 500MB pattern, along with QPF production. Then Don's note on stratwarm potential from late yesterday, tho any stratwarm implications around here might be delayed a month? 608A/28

Good Monday morning (Jan 27), I'm dropping these graphics in for possible future look back. Ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GGEM) continue to suggest an event for our area, tho I think the option for a very close warmer-rainier track exists, unless we lose the potential for a closed low in the northeast. MOS is not that cold but cold enough for snow if the needle is threaded favorably. ?? The first two graphics are GEFS plumes for LGA and POU. The bold line is the mean which is biased higher by several 6+" members. Still it's a start. The 3rd graphic is the 00z/27 NAEFS which now show shows a northward spread of the 5MM (0.2") isohyet and not much variability in the northeast. Finally, one of my favorite charts...the MRF ensemble mean 500 flow, and its members. The white lines on the right are the 00z/GFS(=MRF) member and you can see the many individual blue members at 12z/2 even sharper down here into the northeast. Promising, but quite far in advance. What concerns me is the potential for a second sfc low to our north (NYS) in all that strong vorticity advection. That would potentially warm us up ~850MB, above zero? I wont be posting again til tomorrow morning ~7A, provided ensembles continue with an event. 559A/27

Good Sunday evening everyone, I think Feb 1 has been targeted by the ensembles since ~00z/18. That's why i posted directly to this thread since it's a Feb event thread. The usual questions related to this winter are... does it end up stronger, further north and warmer-rainier, or does the predominantly grazing grouping of both the EPS, GEFS, NAEFS prevail? I'd love to see some blocking in ne Canada or a 50/50 low w blocking in Greenland but that is not likely. I'll post these 18z/26 GEFS plumes here for a possible look back when 18z/Feb 2 rolls around and whatever has occurred. I also added the NAEFS which is the GEFS and GGEM ensemble members combined. It too seems to show a grazer, albeit 12 hours slower (late Feb1-Feb 2). There's also variability in SNE (mm) as you can see from the legend. 759P/Jan 26

Now a wrap on state of the northern tier USA and the past 3 days. Three attachments are: 1) Past 72 hours snowfall...mostly midwest and spotty high terrain 4's n NYS and northern NE through 12z/26. 2) How we stood on snow depth this morning with respect to climo 3) Seasonal snowfall so far

That worked...wasn't aware. MUCH appreciated! Walt