wdrag

Uncertainty is considerable and confidence in any severe storm today is below average. Feel best chance 3P-10P and mainly southern CT. Much greater confidence for an event to monitor late tonight-Friday morning, especially midnight-Noon when the front stalls, surface convergence produces heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms in NJ-LI in high PWAT airmass, especially I78 south where 6 hour "isolated 3-4" rains could occur in Ocean, Monmouth or Mercer County. It is s of I78 where a storm may become severe after midnight and a little concerned about a supercell there early Friday. A fair amount of low level shear in a somewhat high CAPE environment is modeled down toward the Jersey shore s of Sandy Hook Friday morning. So not guaranteeing the second paragraph above but a number of models are heading in this direction as of 6AM/30. Meanwhile, some beneficial rainfall is seeming headed for parts of nw NJ, maybe even all of the forum area where storms missed last week.

Hi! I see a couple of showers formed along the NJ shore earlier this afternoon, even sw LI. Congestus looked pretty neat from the back side here in elevated Wantage of extreme nw NJ. I don't have much time to post today and so nothing new til tomorrow morning. Differences in GFS/EC for tomorrow night should iron out on the 00z/30 cycle. Am thinking continuity on this mornings post and mulling over how to topic the following.. Thu aftn-Fri morning SVR potential s CT/se NYS Thu afternoon-evening, then quite a bit of rain for at least e LI tomorrow night and Fri morning. Sat night-early Sunday: WAA slug of heavy showers. Sun afternoon: potential for svr into extreme nw NJ? Monday-Tuesday: Tropical rains and a possible PRE? Am thinking lump Thu-Sunday as one topic with potentially 4 different events... and Monday-Tuesday as the tropical topic locally featured unless there is a major change in 00z/30 EPS/GEFS and associated tracks of the as yet named storm (410P). Looks like an eastern seaboard pockets of excessive rainfall event. Didn't yet buy into the EC op gusts/850 winds for our area. Too-too much can wrong 5-6 days in advance. Modeling does underscore some of the potential, especially qpf. Back after 9P Walt 410P/20

Winter for me tends to be easier, with the R/S line. EC handles extra tropical cyclone development very well... in my opinion it lags the GFS in convection. For me, that means summer is more problematic-narrow channels of big stuff.

Modeling has improved dramatically since I was a kid (1950s). Still, there are times when vast differences occur. Easy out is no action-and probably more often than not, nothing much happens. I like your suggestion on the Euro. We should have a better feel by 3P. Did see the 12z HRRR is trying to develop e-w band of convection across se NYS-southern New England (SNE) by 18z Thursday. SPC seems to be onto something in their early morning D2 outlook.

Good observations and agree 100% on deep well...we also have a 400 footer...sooner or later that pump will die and pay the price, if we want to live. This event was a basic dud but at least I realized the uncertainty. The future event(s) of the next 7 days look more promising.

Good Wednesday morning, Some of our forum participants have had enough of recharge by Wednesday afternoon August 5. Lot's of possibilities ahead, but which will produce? HEAT WAVE to continue 2 more days non-marine influenced regions..lower Hudson Valley and near NYC, and especially our non hilly NJ coverage area (Wantage only 87 yesterday). Today-tonight: No topic even if an isolated svr thunderstorm slides and dies out into se NYS/w CT portion of the forum at night. Saw some modeling for afternoon showers LI with minor CAPE today. Thursday night Friday morning: Terribly different modeling between the EC GFS---CAPE about 2000J different. EC with 3000+J of CAPE on LI 06z Friday. No wonder it's yielding hefty rains portions of the forum inclusive of LI/S CT. Also noted a substantial westerly jet core to our ne near or just s of Nova Scotia. UK is starting to throw some small bullseyes up here and even the GGEM has a hint. I may let this slide as a topic unless I see 4" potential and/or svr. Big CAPE can be dangerous. SPC has a MARGINAL Risk for a portion of the forum Thursday. PWAT per the EC is quite substantial so worthy of monitoring but no topic for now...uncertainty but am pretty sure it rains and some spots it rains hard (LI/CT best for now). Saturday night Sunday morning: WAA and it looks like potential for some pretty big shower/thunderstorm producers...this might be more NYC west across NJ/se NYS. Finally whatever any tropical connection...still looks like a favorable situation for increased moisture from the tropical system and a favorable jet structure to permit a band of excessive rainfall. Will future modeling hold for an as yet named storm? WPC has 1.5-3" up here Monday-Tuesday if I read their early morning guidance correctly. Summarizing: no new topics from me this morning. Eyeing Thursday night-Friday, and then a combined Sat night-Monday-Tuesday dual event topic. Need more time to see if it's worthy. 652A/29

Yes...we here in Wantage of nw NJ have been pretty dry since ~Fay. Past two weeks 1/4". Bummer. Misses with big rain last week (2.5" around Port Jervis) and between I80-I78 in NJ-PA. Today wasn't looking too good for the past couple of days, especially se NYS. Lot's of target watering and having to be careful with the well pump.

Agreed on done for the front end aft-early eve, probably the back end too except maybe e LI. Walt

Good Tuesday morning everyone, Posted a topic for today-tonight but only as a cover... just not an ideal SVR day. However, looking beyond, I see the possibilities for more topics-but wont start them til closer. In particular...Thursday afternoon-night-early Friday looks of interest to me with much much greater CAPE nearby (LI southward), decent flow aloft, a front and some pretty good KI. This could be isolated SVR, but from my view...a bigger chance for a FF event somewhere in our area...particularly, as of this writing, CT/LI. Just need to get to Wednesday for a reevaluation. Sunday-Monday: Already large QPF by WPC. Modeling has been consistent for several days on a ne USA event but location varies. No thoughts yet on most likely scenarios. Thereafter, the tropics for Tue-Wed, and whatever connection. That too looks of interest to me, not for any direct hit by any storm that may develop, but influence on a secondary inland band (a 6-12 hour band of heavy convection), in part associated with marginal inflow from the tropics/a surface convergence zone and clearly a RRQ quad of a strengthening upper level jet over New England/se Canada and adjacent waters. Whether this comes to pass, is very uncertain but it's what I've been seeing in some of the MODELED suggestions including QPF bands and wind fields aloft. This could fold if nothing forms in the Atlantic Basin the next couple of days, which would mean jet structures would change and be less favorable. Just need to wait it out. 90+... may break se NYS-nw NJ-CT today due to clouds/showers, but resume Wednesday-Thursday, while parts of NJ/NYC area have a decent chance of continuing 90+ today, Wednesday-Thursday. HI may be greatest today on LI and I80 south of 100-104 before cloud cover/showers. 626A/28

Topic posted as a cover for the possibilities but this, as of 611AM Tuesday does not look like w widespread SVR or FF event. Please see SPC D1 Marginal Risk and followup's, as well as local NWS discussions, statements and any warnings plus our own American Weather interpretations and observations of any significant storms. Enough CAPE/KI/marginal wind aloft for a couple of clusters of strong storms. Don't like the 850 westerly flow for lots of svr, and the trough appears too close for too much SVR organization. Best chance for se NYS-nw NJ, 1P-7P. Best for s CT/LI/NYC, ne NJ and s of I80 later...3P-9P, then again midnight-5AM. This secondary late night increase is when it may be most favorable for an outbreak of heavy convection and several hours of training with embedded isolated SVR/FF and estimating best location IF this is to occur, would be anywhere on Long Island overnight. (noting several models with much increased convections overnight but mostly s NJ eastward. Could be more interesting up here on LI near the leftover boundary). I wont be updating anything on this topic between 8A-330P. Hope this produces something of interest.

Good Monday morning everyone here at American Weather. No topic start this morning. Hot it is as described by others elsewhere in this thread. Heat wave interrupted either tomorrow or Wednesday in some places, but in others of the non-marine influenced, non shower influenced, it continues through at least Wednesday. Max T I think is 97 around NYC. HI tomorrow should get to 100, except 100-104 on eastern LI? Least chance for a HI of 100 is se NYS where thunderstorms may interrupt. Convection: Small chance of a shower or thunderstorm later tonight in se NYS/extreme nw NJ. Tuesday: SPC D2 marginal continues. Just don't like the trough so nearby for assured afternoon SVR. I could see a few SVR issuances in se NYS/CT midday and then further s during the afternoon but in my mind this is not a lock for SVR occurrence. Thunder yes... SVR - more than couple? FF... not enough certainty in my mind for 2-4" pockets of FF either Tuesday afternoon, or the convergence setup-for I80-LI-s CT southward during Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. I think the potential exists but modeling is not giving me enough information to increase my confidence. So prefer no topic, at least not from myself, if all this is potentially more or less routine showers and thunderstorms. Will reevaluate late today and tomorrow morning. ISAIAS: will post about six 00z/27 graphics ~715A, only on the Tropic page. The interactions on what should be an Atlantic recurvature could bring us quite a bit of rain in a band somewhere in our area next week, even if it develops into a storm and passes well out to sea to our east-southeast, with mainly Rip Current impact. I think this continues to be worth monitoring, not for a direct impact of wind, but indirect influence on moisture convergence well to the west northwest of the system. More on this in the future if it continues of interest to me. 630A/27

91 in Wantage NJ today. 740' elevation. Probably starting the Tue-Wed SVR/FF topic tomorrow morning, as 12z models basically continue similar cues as written this morning.

Just posted a note on the Tropic forum. First I need a NAMED storm. Then since it's so far away, will post the daily 00z cycle 500MB EPS/GEFS winds and the associated EPS/GEFS tracks. Then we can watch it trend and or sway back and forth. Should be fun. Thanks for the plug. Walt

My last on eventual ISAIAS on this NYC forum. Have transferred this to Tropic. I didn't realize the invest topic had been started there.

Good Sunday morning American Weather! The following is based on 00z/26 model suggestions of concern. Holding off on two topics this morning... Tue-Wed July 28-29 potential few SVR-maybe more so a FF situation, and ISAIAS for Aug 2-6 some sort of impact eastern USA-the latter would like to see the EC operational on-board. HEAT WAVE in progress and probably maximizes Mon-Tue with non-marine influenced max temps near 97F. HI seems destined to be near 100, especially Tue when again a few readings possibly near 103-even eastern LI? Heat Wave probably breaks Wed (clouds), or Thursday when its just a little cooler aloft. Topic consideration 1: Tuesday: SPC D3 has marginal risk. Potential exists, still don't like the trough so nearby to generate here, but can't deny ingredients-marginal winds aloft, but large PWAT-KI, decent CAPE all in place. Tuesday night or Wednesday: Modeling is hinting at eruption of heavy rains again, for LI and parts of NJ, maybe even s CT as weak convergence at the surface along the front (looking for a light north wind again north of the front at night to get this going), plus the 850 trough-vorticity modeled near I80 with PWAT ~2" and continued decent CAPE-KI could allow for 3-4" rains in any bands of heavy convection that fire during the night Tuesday or Wednesday. I am committed to the potential per recent several forecast cycles of modeling but location location location. (caution:UK doesn't have this yet like it did 24 hours in advance for the Thursday night event, so still uncertain) Topic consideration 2: Aug 2-6 (next week): Eventual ISAIAS? Not a lock yet. A definite weakness in what continues to be a repetitive reformation of an eastern USA trough next week should allow whatever forms in the Atlantic to make a run at the USA, be it a close call recurvature out to sea off the eastern USA seaboard or into the GMEX. Lot's of interesting possibilities, especially when looking at the jet stream configuration. I didn't want to quite yet start this as a Tropical Topic but await 12z runs/NHC outlooks etc. Right now---NHC has this as a 90% chance of formation in the Atlantic Basin. I have the August 2 500mb wind fields. GEFS showing the storm and RRQ potential. The EC EPS has the event further south toward FL but also eastern USA weakness. The GEFS ensembles show quite a few members making a northward run next week... but is this accurate? Don't know. It's 8-12 days out. I added the EPS and GEFS idea of tracking whatever is out there. So certainly of interest... but where and what? I do think this has a chance to add some moisture up here. This discussion will add to the tropical section once we have a little more global modeling consensus. 649A/26

Wantage NJ max so far 87 as piddly showers dry out off the Poconos before reaching us. Still has til 7P to gather all the CAPE and send one decent shower into Orange County NY or Sussex County NJ. Maine: Looks somewhat interesting to me tomorrow morning sometime for a 'potential' strong thunderstorm northwest flow event for a small part of northern Maine. Normally I don't go out of forum but the nw flow stuff has me always interested and this was something the EC originally seen modeled for our area this weekend (posts from several days ago) VT/NH (small portions): early Monday-ditto on nw flow strong thunderstorm. Tuesday-Wednesday here - NYC forum: For sure HOT with HI 100-104 'possible' depending as others have noted...on afternoon shower = cloud debris. SVR/FF still possible though a little concerned the trough is so close that not much may happen in the afternoon... then it lights up later Tuesday night-Wednesday LI-I-80 in NJ southward, with quite a bit of rain (spotty 2-3" in a 3 hr period). We'll see. Heat wave may break Wednesday, but could resume with another, beginning Thursday? By the way: Anyone remember, days ago, how emphatically cooler the GFS forecast was for the weekend we're involved with now? Not happening. I think the model compromise would give an edge to the EC for not plowing heavily into the cool days. 334P/25

84/71 in Wantage at 1210P.

Northern NJ and se NYS: Dont be surprised at seeing/hearing thunder and or experiencing a brief downpour this afternoon. Already a tiny shower in ne PA at 1025A. I know a few of us up here in Sussex and Orange counties might benefit from a shower, having missed out on the swaths of big time rains this past week. We'll see how it goes. CU bubbling and some decent buildups to the se-s of Wantage NJ.

If dews drop down into the 50s at 20-21z Tuesday, I'll be a bit surprised and for sure would have to write off Tuesday afternoon convection (delaying til night or not at all). NAM 12K for 18z has what appears to me, a solid chance of dews at least 65 at KEWR at 20z (extrapolating FWN 18z Sussex dew to EWR at 20z.) My guess if dews are down into the 50s during mid Tuesday afternoon, the front would have accelerated quite a bit. Maybe a safe 20z temp forecast for 20z/Tuesday is 95/65, but with uncertainty regarding cloud debris?? just my 2c. This will be an interesting forecast contest between 00z/25 EC HI res, vs EC/GFS/NAM consensus 10F warmer TD. {misunderstood on Euro posts above... they look reasonable. Thought these were referencing Tue 50s TD. My bad---just was too hasty on my part. Walt Sunday 7/26 958A}

Hi! Heat wave looks halfway decent, beginning today a few spots inland from NYC and culminating in potential near 97F Mon-Tue. Does it break with weak cool frontal convection Tuesday, or continue beyond...albeit marginally? Strong cool frontal sewd moving convection still looks good to me (not overwhelmingly good) for Tuesday (PWAT 2", KI upper 30s, cooler wedge at 500MB with marginally good enough 500-300mb winds) , but i see some modeling with a delay til possibly Wednesday, and even one model suggesting dying convection arrives Monday night (though I think capped by rather warm 500mb temps of -4C and so convection in se NYS/CT unlikely Monday night). My choice for now is Tuesday afternoon-evening. No topic yet till am more assured timing is going to focus maximum potential 2P-10P. Keeps all the discussion right here. Have a good weekend. 613A/25

My last on this... thinking of when to start Tuesday topic-it may be tomorrow-timing is a big part of summer convection, but last night was different...I think in part due to all the low level convergence encouraging Friday morning's big storms (light northerly surface winds to the north of the boundary and light south-southwest to the south). I don't want to start Tuesdays topic so early that it weakens to standard run of the mill scattered shower/thunderstorm due to poor timing. This weakening could happen even if the topic is delayed til Monday morning. Summary: here's the RFC 3 day multisensor totals... from what I can tell, at least 4" in this conservative assessment. OKX RADARSCOPE Digital storm total for the period Tuesday evening to about 2PM today, showing 5-6" in yellow-red. There might be some hail contamination that falsely inflated the precip totals a bit. I'm interested in ground truth totals for the entire 60-72 hours of 4+ inches. If none additional are posted, that is fine. We have to move forward. Thanks. 225P/24

Well done!!

Today: sent an update to the two day SVR/FF topic. Big rains likely today for parts of NJ/LI (maybe even NYC) in leftover PWAT/subtle convergence on the trough. Suspect will require 1 or 2 FFW's. best bet I think is between I78-I195 Tomorrow: still could see a shower or thunderstorm in NJ/NYC, but lower pwat. Leftover CAPE part of the problem. Heat wave probable Sun-Tue and may begin Saturday and continue into Wednesday. 97 the worst on Monday-Tuesday and probably closer to 95F. (all non-marine influenced coastal plain, especially Hud Valley/I95 corridor). HI max probably to 100-103, either or both Mon-Tue and inclusive of eastern LI. Next topic: not started for several days until more certainty. Tuesday convection. Ingredients seem in place. Approaching southeastward moving cold front, just enough wind aloft, CAPE/KI. Timing uncertain which may rob the potency (predawn?), even possible that dying strong thunderstorms arrive early Monday night. Fwiw... Hanna may contribute a small amount to the 2" PWAT Tuesday. (the nw flow event thought to occur Sunday ish in our area a few days ago, seems destined for Maine Sunday with only CAPE missing there...still something substantive should be traversing far Northern New England Sunday or Sunday night). 657A/24

It ain't over for FF (I don't think). While this topic has basically ended. More intense rainfall of 1-3" in 1-2 hour period expected somewhere extreme s coast LI or between I78 and I195 in NJ today, especially this morning. PWAT still 1.9", trough nearby with subtle convergence, leftover CAPE. Attaching a few maps. While a bust (nada) for parts of the area yesterday, I consider this not a bust for sw CT, NJ- just sw of NYC. We now have many 3-4.5" report totals past 60 hours (Tue night lead WAA, plus Wednesday, plus Thursday up to 5AM). New Brunswick NJ RU climate site 4.25", Pequest at least 3.64". I'll add some data from just midnight onward this morning (Weather Underground)-many 2-3.5". PHI added a report of over 4" early this morning in the warned (SVR and FF) area. 630A/24

Not over. Iso SVR possible thru the night...not probable but frontal boundary, PWAT 1.9", 850 vorticity with trough coming sewd, RRQ 500mb jet and activity not yet waning very much in PA/CT (esp CT where its not supposed to be doing much in the models). I think the NAM12K has it right and while I could be wrong, I am looking for showers, iso thunderstorms to expand eastward along I80-LI and persist into the 10AM Friday hour. If I'm wrong, I'm possibly just a touch too far north. I saw minor svr late this aftn toward Red Bank NJ, possibly now in sw CT, and Pequest NJ area already past 3.6" for the entire forecast period. Will try to gather a few more reports in the morning thru 12z only.