wdrag

Good Sunday morning, especially ne PA, nw NJ participants where light snow has started including here in Wantage as first flurries began ~230A. A minor event to be melted away by 11AM with snow moving out to the northeast of PA/NJ by 6 or 7am. The 00z/9 RGEM and ECMWF are best for this potential 1/2-1" event parts of ne PA and probably less than 1/2 inch event for Sussex County NJ...maybe more like 1 or 2 tenths. 00z 3KM NAM was much better than its 00z/9 12K NAM. Have appended (courtesy of Pivotal Weather) what happened this Saturday afternoon in terms of measurable which can translate to a 10/1 snow ratio of even greater ratio for the high terrain, mainly SE NYS and to the N and NE of Scranton PA. Looks to me that NE PA/ and NJ Sussex County high terrain (Vernon-Wantage) will pick up 1-3" between 11PM Sunday and 6AM Monday per latest ensembles and multiple models. That one has FGEN and much better dendrite growth and would not surprise to see a brief period of 1/2S up here in these parts by 4AM Monday. From what I can tell... EC/RGEM/NAM op runs all have trended slightly colder on the 00z cycle as compared to 12 hours earlier. Again, the decent but small accums should be reserved for higher terrain. 245A/9

Fresh snow and in places above normal snow depth in Adirondacks now.

Good Saturday morning, Feb 8. Minor events next 48hrs nw NJ... produce a little snow, especially high terrain Sussex County NJ. Starts maybe late this afternoon with FGEN, or else a period late tonight with the trailing short wave pout of the OH Valley, then a wet snowfall possible Sunday night turning to rain Monday morning. Should see an inch or two total for Sussex County NJ high terrain by Monday morning. I've added the HRRRX from 06z/8. Seems a little gong ho in nw NJ but if occurs, also allows NYC to see some sort of very light snowfall tonight. Operational HRRR is trying to show something similar but just w of NYC. I am not liking the pattern but noticed CPC is running a little cooler these next several weeks with an active pattern. Here is their outlook issued yesterday for weeks 3-4. We might yet expand the snowfall sample size (sometime in the next 4 weeks). I know unlikely, but stats are comprised of outliers as well. Thats all I can root for. 719A/8

Added a NWS summary graphic from a couple of hours ago. The wind damage reports generally grey, the severe thunderstorm reported qualifying winds and damage in blue, and the heavy snowfall qualifying for the LSR in purple. Certainly a foot in the Adirondacks and they finally have a decent base for snow mobiling. Wind was about 5 knots less than I expected for all of our forum area. Thank you for your observations in this thread.701A/8

Good Friday morning everyone, Feb 7. Interesting day ahead. No change to the obs only thread for wind gusts 45+ and/or damage reports if you'd like to use this. 20MB pressure rises and strong CAA this afternoon the combined drivers. I just dont think I can post during this period. In the meantime, the Euro continues spreading a coating of snow into nw NJ late this afternoon and I think its possible. Don't be surprised at seeing thunder in e PA midday with the 1mb/hour deepening rate of the sfc low. Also, the Sunday morning snow event I think is still on for nw NJ and se NYS...not sure if NYC can see any snow. I'd like to see the GGEM get onto this and so no guarantee that this event occurs. IF it happens..up to an inch possible high terrain nw NJ/se NYS. Cause: trailing 500MB weakening short wave. Late Sunday night-Monday morning...less certainty on snow same area of nw NJ/se NYS, but could happen with an inch or 2 before a change to rain. This minor impact event rain or snow in a part of our area is multimodeled. Cause: WAA associated with the next approaching trough and building 500 MB ridge east coast. 539A/7 hopefully no typos.

Hi... Just posted a preferred OBS only topic for wind damage on Friday. All the posts herein on wind damage I agree with. I don't know if a Gravity Wave will occur with this low pressure development but some of the cues are there including an excessively strong jet into the ridge position ahead of a negatively tilting and shortening wave length, with what seems to me to be a shallow inversion north of a warm front. I don't want to stretch the science, and others on here may not see enough precursor information in the modeling. I think we'll know by 11AM tomorrow if this will happen by checking upstream pressure fall-rise couplets, unusual wave like striations in some of the radar data (as i recall), some sort of upstream convection along with intense snowfall rates, for an hour or two, developing along the spine of the Appalachians PA northward. I'll be working so after 6AM I cannot monitor. Also, while its going be very windy for a time, not sure if I see this as a sting jet where I'd like to see a developing closed low at 500mb assist in the wraparound strong downward transfer. 2423P/6

Hi, Many have been posting about wind problems in our forum area for the past 5 days and it looks like it should come to pass between roughly 10A-3P Friday Feb 7. The combination of rapidly intensifying low pressure to a near record for our area in February, with the associated negative tilting short wave short wave passage followed by strong afternoon pressure rises and associated cold air advection should favor a period of ~50MPH wind gusts for a short time in most of our area, conceivably well over 60 MPH in at least a few locations. This combined with somewhat soft ground for mid winter may lead not only to broken tree limbs/wires, power outages, but also a few uproots, especially with the weakened tree structure from the Dec 1-3 wet snow storm (nw NJ especially). I've checked IGW composite and while not a classic, I would not be surprised at some sort of convectively induced gravity wave that ""if"" occurs, would modulate the flow and pop 50 MPH gusts into even the thermally inverted sounding north of the warm front (currently s of LI). This thread has been started because I think we're coming into a time when forum participants are going to be seeing lots of snow to rain opportunities between tomorrow afternoon and Valentines Day. I wanted a place where we can just post the observed wind, wind damage reports for this uncommonly low pressure passage.

Good Thursday morning, Feb 6. A few thoughts. 1) Thinking all that shallow cold air near Albany might tend to drain south toward nw NJ next 24hours with surprise high terrain icing into tonight above 1500 feet near the Sussex Orange county border. Mesoscale n-ne flow with a wave out to the s of LI today-tonight. 2) Agree w previous posters on damaging wind potential NJ-CT-MA ,maybe even se NYS ,with extreme low pres followed by very strong pres rises in the afternoon and slug of CAA. Also, I'll try and check, but unsure if a gravity wave has been considered for our area tomorrow? IF?? that would occur, wind gusts in places would easily exceed 60MPH. 3) I'm getting some confidence back that at least ne/PA/nw NJ/interior se NYS should see a period or two of snow Sat night-early Sun (mid-Atlc states sw passage), and again Sun night (WAA). Plenty cold for sure... and then does any meager snow accumulate in NYC (less than 1")? I think we need 2 more days of model evolution see if any consensus develops but am pretty sure nw NJ high terrain will see some snow accumulation this weekend. 617A/6

Wantage NJ glaze. freezing drizzle 31.5F. some pavement not affected by glaze but wood surfaces, vegetation for sure. 531A/6

Good Wednesday morning, Feb 5. Not going to knash my teeth over general model loss for a Sunday morning snow event. It appears the Feb 6-7 complex strong trough passage may suppress the trailing 500MB trough for the nice little waa coastal wave. It's still 5 days out and it may come back. UK has a hint, EPS has a bit of snow, GEFS continues to cut off snow, now back to near Baltimore on the 5/6z run. Think up front, we have enough modeling issues for tomorrow mornings ice event, particularly the southeast edge extent, with varying solutions. Less than ideal certitude but will watch the SPC HREF trends today (biased a deg or 2 cold). Still wet bulbs will be down and a little sleet/glaze should occur predawn Thursday with elevations possibly have a freezing rain occurrence through 11A, if precip lasts that long. My own take for nw NJ: Sleet or freezing rain develops 11PM to 1AM and changes to rain from Easton PA to Warren County NJ between 5-7AM, then changing to rain in southwest Sussex County NJ 6-8AM, but freezing rain continues high terrain of northern Sussex County above 1000 feet, possibly as late as 11AM (High Point, Vernon). Probably my last post til tomorrow morning. 644A/5

Good Tuesday morning everyone, (Feb 4), Thinking a few hours of ice is pretty good bet ne PA/nw NJ -I84 Thursday morning with delays. Saturday night or Sunday morning (Feb 8-9): Not agreed upon in the operational models but ensembles and several models have a little snow for NYC-LI. I would think it would be cold enough for a light snow accumulation but timing with surface temps will play a role. Models generally see potential for several inches accumulation... especially west of NYC. Not a guarantee but potential exists. A seasonably cold weekend finally! No graphics today. Negative EPO still being modeled. Unsure of its impact here in NYC. I wont be back on the forum til probably sometime tonight. 549A/4

Good Monday morning everyone, Pretty windy at our house in Wantage NJ the past two hours with gusts ~25MPH. Still not much to write about for NYC-LI. Action next two weeks focused I84 corridor northward and mostly as ice episodes. Adding 3 graphics for ensemble model background as of 09z/3. Didn't start a specific topic for the 6th-7th since I've gotten the sense that if NYC is not involved in accumulative snow it's not worth a specific event topic. So... have remained within this thread. Left graphic: NWS ensemble chance of 1" of snow Wednesday into early Thursday. Note the 80% probability from the legend (orange) into ne PA with 70% nw CT to extreme northwest Sussex County NJ. The non-winter continues south of PA down to NC. Issue time ~9z/3 Center graphic: NWS ensemble chance of glaze Wednesday, and especially Thursday morning prior to daybreak. These probabilities may?? be too low by 30-40%. You can see the axis is favoring PA/nw NJ. Issue time ~9z/3 Right graphic: NWS ensemble chance of 3+ inches of snow Thursday into early Friday (7A Thursday-7A Friday). The blue 50% or greater is basically just north of I90. I do want to say though that some sort of icing is going to occur in most of the green area Thursday morning down to I78, even though it wont snow much, if at all there. This ensemble was derived mostly from 18z/2 guidance since it was issue around 05z/3 prior to the arrival of 00z/3 ensemble guidance. Wind: The ECMWF continues to forecast a brief period of gusty winds between 50-65 MPH in the I95 corridor from BOS-DC Friday morning. Northward extent right now is uncertain. 1104z/3

Wantage NJ 1.6" final. Settling occurred so this may be conservative. Roads generally wet and some pavements have quite a bit of melting. 2.0 for the day. 18.7 for the season.

Wantage NJ 1.1" of wet snow at 830P. Continues to snow. This may be my last report til 430A. 32.7F Roads wet otherwise everything covered.

Wantage NJ now 0.8" solid with roads here wet, slight slush. snowing fairly large flakes. wet snow. Total with the morning 0.4 included is 1.2" today. Have seen a report near Dingmans in Pike County PA of 2".

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 0.5" new on all. SB ~344P. Most of the snowfall since 515P. 32.7F after a high of 40.3F (0.2F less than yesterday. Snowflakes of moderate size. WET snowfall. It's nice again here after we completely melted this mornings 0.4" around 1030A. Enjoy the game. Walt

By the way, I have checked the CoCoRAHS reps and widespread 0.2-0.8" fell overnight in ne PA and far nw NJ. Wantage total now 17.1". The 5am viewing of small flake snow was uplifting...no matter how paltry. Roads were salted here at 530A and driveways were still icy at 8AM, so even the little ones can have impact (bone breakers - if not careful). It all adds up. I think we love the KU storms but they aren't often... I didn't count them up but my guess is we average ~1-2/year with some years ni,l like this one, but some years 3. Maybe someone will chime in on the mean of KU's/yr? In any case it's inspiring to see a little snow. NYC should not be surprised for a little wet snow mix this eve, and no acc. Not sure about all the big warmup for us tomorrow-Tuesday either... my guess is with sunshine we can crack 50 in the non sea breezed areas. Interior nw NJ Tuesday might have a hard time exceeding 40s. BL temps are not modeled quite as warm up here along I80. EC was pretty quick past two cycles spreading a bit of snow-ice down into southern NYS early next week.

Just had an interesting experience. (Nice to have a day off when this happens.) Our home and the one next door... at about 850AM.... with temp at 32.4 but sun shining on the roofs... melted the snow which suddenly broke through marginal dams and cascaded-spilled into downspouts and onto the porch roof below.

Don, I like stats and I expect you will be right... but am a little concerned in short term that all the excessive warmth is still within the snow-ice threshold window. Also, i don't like seeing the EPO being forecast consistently negative as I see AK is trending warmer both aloft and the surface, via the anomalies as you posted and and the NAEFS as well. This shall be interesting for ice events I84 region northward the next two-three weeks as a storm track from the southern Plains into the northeast exists, with multiple events already modeled and a very warm southern USA fighting for dominance against a normally cold southern Canada. Also, it seems to the polar vortex is slowly shifting southeastward out of the arctic and not quite sure how the AO is forecast so darn strong? This is probably my error in viewing the hemispheric pattern? For us, timing the departing cold highs to our northeast will be critical for ice, vs rain knowing I95 NYC southward probably is cooked for any significant snow.

Good Sunday morning everyone, Wantage NJ 0.4" 230A-530A. Season now 17.1" Just salted the roads here at 700'MSL. Here's my thinking this afternoon-evening... based on strong WAA with pretty FGEN in eastern PA late today weakening as it transits east to NYC-BOS so that pretty good snowfall out in ne PA/extreme nw NJ weakens eastward and probably melts NYC. If the FGEN shows sign of improvement for NYC I'll add the graphic later today. Snow redevelops this afternoon in ne PA between 2-3PM and spreads into nw NJ around 4P, diminishing to flurries or freezing rain sprinkles around 11PM. Should see between 1/2-2" with the snow coming down at a pretty good rate around sundown with untreated slippery roads developing in high terrain---more so than the impact of early this morning. Heaviest snow probably Pike County to northern Wantage-Vernon-High Point where I think an inch is likely, despite NWS and EPS statistics not very enthusiastic for 1". I'm pretty sure we have significant ice threat (glaze with front end snow-sleet totals probably under 3") for the I84 region into nw NJ Thursday. NYC might have a touch of snow/sleet but statistically not promising for much if any of both. Wind briefly above 45 MPH may be a problem for NYC-LI Friday. The ice and wind threats for Thu-Fri have been signaled for several days by the various models, with latitude of the primary impacts showing some variability. Timing could of both could be a player in cancels-delays. 715A/2

This continues to be pretty exciting for us up here in nw NJ, considering the winter in progress. 0.4" at 508A. Some of this is coming to the NYC northern suburbs now. Enjoy every minutes of this. Poor picture from my I8 but here is is. mPing reporting from up here.

No separate thread for this minor on-going event here in nw NJ but just saying: Wantage NJ at 430A/2 0.2" snowing steadily small flakes. all surfaces covered except roads wet with some covered spots. 32/30. This is a GFS miss. NAM and all other non GFS models had this minor early Sunday event. Am thrilled for seeing early morning minor snowfall. Yesterdays 0.1" had melted by 9a. Cheers from the hills of nw NJ 740'MSL.

Good morning, Wantage NJ had 0.1" snow last evening 830-930P. It melts today but am pretty sure many of us will see a little wet snow late tonight-early Sunday and possibly again late Sunday afternoon or evening. Minor accums probably restricted to the suburbs north and west. I wont be surprised to see a new 1/2 or even 1 inch total in hilly terrain of nw NJ by 11PM Sunday. Haven't started a thread since its nothing much, and occurs the beginning of Feb so this thread works. Pretty strong northern stream short wave passage early Sunday, the one that didn't phase with the southeastern USA short wave... followed by rather strong warm advection Sunday evening, are the probable event drivers for our area. As it turns out, while the multi modeled ensembles (EPS/GEFS) since ~the 18th of January pegging ~Feb 1 were much too heavy on QPF, it seems their signal wont end up a total bust with minor snow nw suburbs and just about everyone in our forum coverage area having had measurable precipitation between 8PM last night (31st) and 11PM Sunday Feb 2. 605A/1

Wantage NJ Final for 1/31: 0.1" snowfall ~830-930P time frame Jan 31. 16.7" for the season.

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. snowing lightly. melting on contact 34F. 832P/31