wdrag

Looks sort of lame so far as far as severe goes... not sure if it will crank up? will check again at 330P. Should be east northeastward moving lines.

Good observations noted in these pages. I like the Suffolk-BOS and relating Sandy-Fay. I add this but kind of late... New England qpf assessment. No sure if there is a plot somewhere of all our forum area (observed)?

I may have been 2-3 hours too soon on this window... but 12z guidance both SPC-3KM NAM and HRRR continue. I may be out of communication until about 1230P.

Looking beyond today: Timing of convection uncertain but Monday the 13th could see a few hailers... timing of convection is my concern. Tuesday: leftover in se NYS?? Thursday the 16th looks interesting to me but convective debris may nix a fairly potent day---which has a nicely modeled 500mb wind field, CAPE etc. This is not the end of potency per overall USA-Canadian jet and attempted thrusts of heat into the ne USA beyond the 16th. Enjoy every minute of this active period. 605A/11

Please see SPC, NWS discussions, any statements, and our own members. Leftover PWAT, relatively strong 500MB (30kt) wind field, modeled CAPE, lightning density, SPC HREF and WPC D1 QPF all suggest pretty decent convection this afternoon dying out by late evening. Combination of convection (expecting several 1.5 to as much as 3" amounts today) and past weeks rains, should more easily permit isolated flash flood. Wind damage, mostly associated with wind and maybe a couple of uproots because of somewhat softer ground. Hail not mentioned but I dont think primary in this leftover tropical environment. Eastern LI seems less likely for SVR/FF this event.

Wantage (southern part) only 1.93. Beneficial: have reviewed a few posts on this particular page of FAY and appreciate the comments, especially data nw NJ. The radar estimates to me appear to be too low. Appears to me USA models + GGEM generally out performed EC and especially UK on track/rainfall expectations. A decent winter-like nor'easter in subtropical environment. Have one 4a-4a QPF map... and will add an update for entire forum area around 11A. In the meantime, max gusts per OKX to supplement earlier max gusts posted on this thread. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off and last evenings rainfall totals for the OKX area: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202007102343-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX PHI rainfall totals as of just before midnight. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi

On Fay early reference per earlier inquiry: FAY as a storm was mentioned I think on Monday or Tuesday, helpful tropical references to todays event were made by Bluewave on the 4th and others on Sunday the 5th. All good. Wantage NJ at least 1.58 so far since about 11AM, most of it after Noon-a 6 hour total.

Here's some data from the NJ Climate Network... Max gusts so far (MPH), and storm totals so far, as of 444PM.

No new threads from myself, per ongoing FAY. SPC continues Marginal risk Saturday per SPC D2 discussion. Has potential, wind, pwat etc. Reevaluating for a thread, Saturday morning. Monday: Potential hailers? Need further look the day before (Sunday). Next Thu-Sat (16-18th). One of those days could be a SVR day. Pretty good heat nearby, as well bigger CAPE. Wind fields all the days listed offer marginal potential for wind damage, IF big convection develops.

Thunder-rolling- at 224PM here in Wantage of the nw tip of NJ. Did find one lightning strike on my radar scope latest DIX image.

Regarding power: Most of the NYS outages in the Mohawk Valley. But NJ: per the recent earlier post... attached for 231P report.

near 33kt now up to Monmouth. 40kt Brick NJ. Not seeing anything beyond the 40s in knots along the NJ coast.

Yes, courtesy NWS BGM and their associates developing this product. The subbasin is probably available to the public but I don't ever really use.. That's a NWS warning responsibility. I just don't have the time, even in retirement (haven't started consulting business). I only try to ballpark. Here's the BGM link. It's set to 1 hour FFG but you can change it. https://www.weather.gov/bgm/productCountyFFG

Error (possible) on my 6.5" note for s NJ. Cant find that report right now but as of 1730z... here's a small sample from coastal DE near Lewes-Rehoboth. S NJ looks like mostly 3.4.5" so far, per whatever SACRUS had earlier. DE numbers attached. The 9" report (and 0.78") reports look suspect but there are several 6+" reports in that area. Credit the WUNDERMAP group for data gathering from PWS's.

Seaside Heights easterly wind at the mesonet site gust near 40 kt.

Many reports of 6 to as 8" in the the Rehoboth area of coastal DE and have seen reports up to 6.5" in s NJ. No winds higher than gale force (TS gusts and a few TS sustained). This per wundermap. Updated at 121P. See no lightning in all this warm process rain. Of greatest concern: STP's are wayyyyy to low in NJ and possibly not set to the tropical algorithm? Unsure but unless the wundermap is wrong, STP does not represent reality very well today.

fwiw... not sending any data for a couple of hrs. have some work here.

Thats what I thought... so imo, it has to be after a weak trough passage... CAPE lessens but it's warmer.

UNCONFIRMED 52kt at 903A at a LEWES mesonet platform. as of 10A, several 4-5.5" wx flow totals in eastern DE, a little less coastal NJ.

Agreed w yours. Usually we don't FF here in Sussex County unless we hook a storm on a hill with backward redevelopment. Campers-hikers should have been smart enough to abandon plans late today-tonight. If they get in trouble, I'd say it is their responsibility.

Not sure of surface wind direction when 100F in NYC CP-LGA... would think between 260-310 degrees? I know there is talk of 100F in the forum... cant remember myself, the 100F day wind direction but am pretty sure isobars were west-east to northwest-southeast. EWR I think can more easily reach 100 on a sfc wind backed to 230degrees. Might be worth a check. I'd like to see 850T at least 20C, closer to 23C at 12z-18z of the proposed 100F day.

Gusts hit 46Kt just was oof DE around 724A (1124z), currently at around 40kt Ocean City South Beach, Lewes, and Dewey Beach DE mesonet platforms at about 830A(1230z). all northeast winds.

fwiw... at about 1150z...no lightning. EC wraps enough instability to add lightning into the system late today-this eve.

For flash flooding: here's a nice look at 6 hour rainfall trigger thresholds (county wide) as hosted by BGM/RFC's. Since PWAT exceeds 2", pretty clear that urban runoff will produce short periods of street flooding-impacting travel between 2P-10P in NJ. Max gusts...follow HRRR and your other favorite models. Sort of looks to me like 3P-8P. 00z/10 SPC HREF has 1.5"+ rainfall w LI/NJ/se NYS. Think it's NJ and se NYS where to be more concerned, thinking back to rains of Monday and Wednesday. One other comment: NWS sees sub basin thresholds for triggering warnings, so this is just a broad scale idea. Let's see what happens.