wdrag

Thunder-rolling- at 224PM here in Wantage of the nw tip of NJ. Did find one lightning strike on my radar scope latest DIX image.

Regarding power: Most of the NYS outages in the Mohawk Valley. But NJ: per the recent earlier post... attached for 231P report.

near 33kt now up to Monmouth. 40kt Brick NJ. Not seeing anything beyond the 40s in knots along the NJ coast.

Yes, courtesy NWS BGM and their associates developing this product. The subbasin is probably available to the public but I don't ever really use.. That's a NWS warning responsibility. I just don't have the time, even in retirement (haven't started consulting business). I only try to ballpark. Here's the BGM link. It's set to 1 hour FFG but you can change it. https://www.weather.gov/bgm/productCountyFFG

Error (possible) on my 6.5" note for s NJ. Cant find that report right now but as of 1730z... here's a small sample from coastal DE near Lewes-Rehoboth. S NJ looks like mostly 3.4.5" so far, per whatever SACRUS had earlier. DE numbers attached. The 9" report (and 0.78") reports look suspect but there are several 6+" reports in that area. Credit the WUNDERMAP group for data gathering from PWS's.

Seaside Heights easterly wind at the mesonet site gust near 40 kt.

Many reports of 6 to as 8" in the the Rehoboth area of coastal DE and have seen reports up to 6.5" in s NJ. No winds higher than gale force (TS gusts and a few TS sustained). This per wundermap. Updated at 121P. See no lightning in all this warm process rain. Of greatest concern: STP's are wayyyyy to low in NJ and possibly not set to the tropical algorithm? Unsure but unless the wundermap is wrong, STP does not represent reality very well today.

fwiw... not sending any data for a couple of hrs. have some work here.

Thats what I thought... so imo, it has to be after a weak trough passage... CAPE lessens but it's warmer.

UNCONFIRMED 52kt at 903A at a LEWES mesonet platform. as of 10A, several 4-5.5" wx flow totals in eastern DE, a little less coastal NJ.

Agreed w yours. Usually we don't FF here in Sussex County unless we hook a storm on a hill with backward redevelopment. Campers-hikers should have been smart enough to abandon plans late today-tonight. If they get in trouble, I'd say it is their responsibility.

Not sure of surface wind direction when 100F in NYC CP-LGA... would think between 260-310 degrees? I know there is talk of 100F in the forum... cant remember myself, the 100F day wind direction but am pretty sure isobars were west-east to northwest-southeast. EWR I think can more easily reach 100 on a sfc wind backed to 230degrees. Might be worth a check. I'd like to see 850T at least 20C, closer to 23C at 12z-18z of the proposed 100F day.

Gusts hit 46Kt just was oof DE around 724A (1124z), currently at around 40kt Ocean City South Beach, Lewes, and Dewey Beach DE mesonet platforms at about 830A(1230z). all northeast winds.

fwiw... at about 1150z...no lightning. EC wraps enough instability to add lightning into the system late today-this eve.

For flash flooding: here's a nice look at 6 hour rainfall trigger thresholds (county wide) as hosted by BGM/RFC's. Since PWAT exceeds 2", pretty clear that urban runoff will produce short periods of street flooding-impacting travel between 2P-10P in NJ. Max gusts...follow HRRR and your other favorite models. Sort of looks to me like 3P-8P. 00z/10 SPC HREF has 1.5"+ rainfall w LI/NJ/se NYS. Think it's NJ and se NYS where to be more concerned, thinking back to rains of Monday and Wednesday. One other comment: NWS sees sub basin thresholds for triggering warnings, so this is just a broad scale idea. Let's see what happens.

Not starting a thread today, for Saturday's SPC marginal risk (dealing w FAY today), nor the cold pool - 500mb trough potential hailers for Monday (event may occur too early in the day??). Think it's RAINFREE after 8P Tue (14th) through 1159PM Wednesday (15th), before it possibly gets interesting again with Midwest eastward moving hot thrusts and weak fropa's providing interest one or two of Thursday-Saturday afternoons (much larger CAPE/KI potential).

Do you want me to shift the posts to the tropical section? (all set on this...I now see how this works as a subform primary impact) Walt

Sustained ~33kt, G41 kt at a mesonet platform just e of DE... and on the coast of s NJ and DE coast as of about 725A, close to TS gusts of near 34 kt. Looking for max rainfall, just left of Fay track...(light n-ne flow) vs TS gusty e-se to sse flow e of track.

NHC put out an announcement at 2017z on FAY starting 5P--elaborating briefly on the slightly earlier posts.

Are we staying here or moving this conversation to Tropical? Prefer going to one continuous thread. AMWX call, whatever you wish> presume someone is in charge of the tropical page.? Thanks in advance for informing me/us-Walt

12z EC as noted previously, adding that its flash density op model product has some lightning Fri eve.

NHC 2PM TWO: 90% chance of forming a tropical system

So in summary, yesterday was a relative bust in northern NJ. Maybe this activity was hooked on orographic (e PA, se NYS?), or a boundary that I couldn't easily discern. No SVR, just good rain as per the graphics added. Isolated 4+ per digital and DIX radar (red's), and while no NWS-CoCORAHS published 4+ reports yesterday, suspect near Newburgh, New Windsor in se NYS and also se PA near Pottstown. Modest storms in NJ had decent outflows (pushing south) but apparently the modeled tempered expectations near I80 were the correct idea. Added 3 day total as the last graphic...definitely short of 5+ expected in Monday's post, partly because yesterdays occurred just too far north.

No plans on new topics, yet. Will post some rainfall verification in a couple of hours. MARFC multi sensor analysis already complete. Multisensor-diminishes isolated extreme at the expense of spatial-areal coverage. Will add those to the original posts, hopefully by Noon. The future: after whatever happens Friday, some sort of drops convection this weekend. Monday afternoon is of interest to me for bigger storms-hail, because of ECMWF modeled 500MB temps near -12C, leftover moisture, modeled lightning, KI. Will reevaluate Saturday, after we clear out the subtropical and kind of better know our soil moisture.