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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Good Saturday morning everyone, It appears the 5 day outlook is still on track. GFS via it's 06z/7 cycle is starting come back to another event late Sunday. A few graphics are added to put things in perspective. The differences in the GFS/EC-GGEM groups for Sunday appear to be related to the ejecting of a strong shortwave out of the West Coast trough toward the Great Lakes-Northeast USA...the latter EC-GGEM are stronger. Also, fwiw, the EC operationally is leaving behind Eta's 850 vort near PNS Fl late this coming week. For now, that is uncertain, but a cyclonic circulation of sorts seems to be left behind in the northern GOM next Friday. IF that occurs, you can count on another brief period of near 2" PWAT coming into the NYC forum at the end of next weekend. That would cue my interest after being primed Wed-Thu (possibly with a little more rain on Friday as well). So, I envision a rainy period coming Wed-Thu, Sunday, possibly Friday as well. Timing on those days less than certain though am very confident of Wednesday into Thursday 1-3", as a start with near 2" PWAT hanging around and opportunity for more than 3" in central NJ. Even so, this first event should be below FFG with only a small region just w of NYC vulnerable to flooding. 00z/7 cycle WPC 7 day qpf is added, plus the GEFS prob of 3+" in 36 hrs and GEFS plumes for ISP for the entire 7 day period...showing the range of possibilities as seen in the 00z/7 GEFS.
  2. wdrag
    Continuing prior posts for multiple significant rainfall events Wed-Sun, despite two successive GFS OP (12z/18z) runs of nil on Sunday there 15th. GFS seems completely at odds with the GGEM and EC op, as well as GEFS thru the 18z/6 cycle today an'd the EPS from 12z/6 whereby it appears our NYC forum will generally average at least 1-3" in that 5 day period, perhaps quite a bit more in spots provided two significant 1+" rainfall events occur.
  3. wdrag
    Good Friday morning all, Interest continues for tropical interaction in the NYC forum Wednesday-Sunday (11-15). For now, per ensembles and multi 00z/6 operational modeling, favored tropical (best risk PWAT briefly 2") days are Wed-Thu, but now Friday is a possibility too... with the Sunday 15th event maybe just a fast moving cold front with bigger PWAT just south? No matter: GOM cyclonic circulation PWAT is going to make it up here, mostly likely Wed-Thu, with a possible revisit Friday, or still even possibly Sunday. I've added WPC QPF issued early today for Wed-Thu, also tropical ensemble tracks for Eta (EPS, GEFS), which tend to show recurvature somewhere between NC-New England (IF it remains a transitioning wave) around Friday-Saturday. Just have to wait this out, but I'm pretty sure of one, .... possibly 2 batches of 1-3" rainfall here in our forum between Wed-Sunday.
  4. wdrag
    Hi! As of the 12z/5 cycle... there is a potentially interesting 1-2 punch coming to the mid Atlantic states as alluded to in the topic. Unsure how much of either will strike the NYC forum but odds favor at a minimum, beneficial rains of 1-3" by next Sunday night (5 day threat period), possibly twice that much if we get both opportunities. Getting two sizable rains with a tropical connection (PWAT near 2") in 5 days is not common up here, at least to my knowledge. The first for Wed-Thu is a tropical connection more related to the GOM cyclonic flow pulling high PWAT air northwest then north from Fl. through the Carolinas and into the northeast; the second for next weekend, a bit more tenuous - less certain, but is more Eta direct. It's primary impact could be a narrow miss south. For now; ensembles have decent rainfall coming. the 12/5 52 member NAEFS poses the probability of 2+" of rain by next Sunday night the 15th. The prob as seen from the legend is 35-45%. Not too bad, for essentially a rain risk period 6-10 days in advance. We shall see if we get glancing shots, or more direct involvement. For now, I think the odds are pretty good for 1-3" of rain next Wed-Thu, greater uncertainty for the weekend following. Continuing to monitor modeling- and probably wont have much more to add til this weekend.
  5. wdrag
    No--sorry.. first I want to see moisture get up here. Will let the modeling try to draw some consensus by Sunday afternoon and by then we might know more about a hybrid or something else, including track/size.
  6. wdrag
    This is potentially a failed topic 7-12 days in advance, but Eta and/or Theta remnant moisture or the actual ET transitioning leftover tropical wave has a chance of advancing into our NYC forum area either midweek, or next weekend. Reasoning is based on an ensembled strong WAR near Bermuda forcing any Tropical systems that enter the GOM early next week, inland over the eastern USA, then northward and eventually east-northeast by the time it reaches our latitude. The 52 member NAEFS and WPC have qpf in the eastern USA by the middle of next week. Additionally, there is a substantial RRQ of the upper level jet during mid week over se Canada, and then next weekend it is modeled to redevelop southward into New England. RR Quads of the upper level jet are favorable for generating heavy qpf near a surface front with PWAT over 1.6". This is not saying it will occur... but we may find it's worthwhile having a topic to discuss our views/supporting guidance as we advance in time. IF....IFFF...the remnants of the tropical system miss the first opportunity to accelerate northeastward the middle of next week, then a colder scenario could unfold next weekend, but that colder scenario would be the less likely, threading the needle, so to speak. For now: I'm thinking 1-3" rainfall opportunity either next Wednesday or Thursday (already 1" 12z/4 GEFS/EPS) or maybe again next weekend. So... this is just a topic that may come in handy based on the idea that the main trough in the USA the next two weeks is in the west with a strong ridge over the western Atlantic and east coast. 403P/4
  7. wdrag
    I didn't have the heart to start a wind topic for tomorrow. Just doesn't look quite strong enough to me, but I could be wrong. IF OKX/PHI start a wind advisory in our area, I'd add a topic but am not quite as keen on this being scattered 45+MPH except ridges and maybe the eastern tip of LI. Not much has changed in the modeling as far as I can tell from the 00z-06z/1 cycle. If power outages, then I would expect those to be mostly in the forested higher terrain, mainly between 7AM and 2 PM.
  8. wdrag
    I like the idea of a few flurries around Monday morning - whether NYC CP ASOS sees--doubtful. Measurable on some of the I84 high terrain likely. mPing. Wind gusts Monday more commonly 35-40 MPH with isolated 50 MPH and a few associated power outages. Not quite convened we'll grab up to 825MB at 15z-16z Monday to transfer 45-50kt... so have not started a topic. Richardson # and timing of cold core passage at that time look favorable but NAM3k sounding looks like it's not quite as steep above 9000MB and so am hesitant to topic what might not be much of a damage event. Maybe guidance will change my mind late today... or if OKX issues a wind advisory, then I'll topic. For now, I think the best chance of damaging wind Monday morning is to the west and north of NYC. fwiw... late this afternoon, there might be an isolated gust 45 MPH e LI in showers. I did see the secondary line crossing the interior late today but not much wind flagged there...at least not yet. Maybe some hail? At 7A EST, have added this mean gust graphic in MPH from the SPC HREF. Not as impressive as I'd like to see. This is for 15z Monday (10AM).
  9. wdrag
    Good info impressions shared by all on Zeta. Kudos to Moderately Unstable for the observations stated in paragraph 1 of the Tuesday evening (p4) post. I didn't look at any Zeta posts midday Wednesday onward as the cat was out of the bag ,so to speak. Have attached this mornings remnant per outages... rather large 3-4 days after traversing the southeast USA. I also admit the ICON October 23 early missed assessment of cyclone phase in the central Gulf. A cycle or two later, all that was remedied by the multiple models while still hanging out toward the Yucatan.
  10. wdrag
    Still monitoring 26th-27th ne of the Bahamas to near Bermuda for something subtropical or tropical-small, and not necessarily long lived. NHC not showing anything of interest.
  11. wdrag

    There seems to be a problem thread on the TROPICS...hackers..top. Needs delete and protections in our group.  Thanks.  Walt 

  12. wdrag
    Per 12z/24 modeling... looking pretty good and meshing more closely to previous versions of the ICON ,if an MSY-MOB vicinity landfall indeed occurs. I see TWO is near 100% prob formation.
  13. wdrag
    Long ways to go... model confusion on which, or if even two small storms this coming week. GMEX looking more warm core in this mornings Cyclone Phase diagram but selecting a starting point is important. EPS is less emphatic for the Central Gulf Coast. So I do not know but I think it's good to present the broad range of possibilities. If you check the00z/24 EC op... you'd be concerned about just off there se coast of the USA. May add another graphic by 806AM.
  14. wdrag
    2c worth... based on 12z/23 models and not necessarily looking at this correctly.. ICON is interesting. What is more interesting about the ICON is that Phase Diagram is opting turning to cold core over the central GMEX (attached). I think between the 25th and the 26th,,, whatever happens has to meander north to near FL where there seems to be more favorable SST, moisture, and possibly upper air pattern. Still looks like a small tight system but a couple of the hurricane models are offering 64kt at 925MB approaching or passing close to FL. I'm definitely interested in the phase diagrams-utility. For now the NAEFS suggests looking e and ne of FL but I see the Euro/ICON etc look more favorably upon central GMEX.
  15. wdrag
    Zeta: later than sooner? Less clear to me on Bahamas tropical event per perusal 00z/23 multi model guidance. Invest has occurred and some intensity guidance goes for a TS but not many models and the TC Phase diagram is less likely, initially ~25th. Some guidance waits til the 27th in GMEX, and as per prior posts by others, the first week of Nov. I will say the NAEFS has something going northeast past Bermuda and i can see it vaguely in GFS/EC PWAT guidance for the 25th-26th FL east coast, east northeast or northeast from there. Many words not offering confidence on when-how-where Zeta evolves. Relying on NHC products. Have a good day.
  16. wdrag
    Zeta: ? My guess this has a 30-50% chance of forming... still warm sst. Minor (marghginal TS) event somewhere e coast Fl newd to near or west of Bermuda. Here's a modeling image. Several operational models show tight shallow warm core. Includes UK, RGEM, GGEM GFS, ICON, NAEFS implied (no JMA/EC). My guess it's a junk storm as some might call it, except if you're in it's marine path. Am monitoring models... definitely not what the GFS was calling for 10 days ago but something can yet emerge.
  17. wdrag
    I've added this as NEW on the 06z/GEFS500MB run...notice several members closed circulation down near FL. There we zero members like this on the 00z/21 cycle. We'll see if the trend continues. I can't expand any further on this potential until this evening, at the earliest.
  18. wdrag
    Noticed that as well, but beyond 240 hours... I cant be very confident... but yes, GEFS has some members trying for a tropical event. For now, I want to be sure the 00z/21 models and tropical phase diagrams are wrong about the Bahamas vicinity event of the 25th-26th.
  19. wdrag
    Zeta: ??? Good Wednesday morning all w interest between FL-Bermuda 25th-27th. I saw the NHC dropped tropical potential overnight but 00z-06z/21 operational modeling suggests (multi models) that a shallow warm core tropical circulation will develop by the 25th vicinity-Cuba- east coast FL and head northeast or east-northeast. It probably won't be too deep vertically but I'm expecting something that may need to be named a small TS between the 25th-27th. I can easily be wrong, so no promises. I will admit I'm wrong as soon as modeling gives it up (again). 655A/21
  20. wdrag
    EPSILON is now named. 11A EDT/19. NHC taking it to 80kt for now. We'll see what happens. There are now probs for 30 ft seas near the center by Fri-Sat and a very high probability for an extensive area of 12 ft seas well to the west and north of center.
  21. wdrag
    27 started by NHC this morning. TC phase for at least two days has been very good on predicting immediate warm core and the intensity to ~TS sometime today. Intensity guidance has been ramping up. Presume the eventual Epsilon should get down to the the 950s or 960sMB by ~late Friday's beginning of recurvature to the ne. UK operationals I think so far are the most intense. Going to be a bit rougher on the ocean along the east coast by the end of the week due to long period easterly and eventual southeasterly swells.
  22. wdrag
    Epsilon (eventual): Should be sizable TC...pretty impressive looking 'potential'...still a slight westward displacement in eventual track from 24 hours previous but too far east of the E coast. Swells of 7 feet or higher seem plausible to LI by Friday with much bigger impact on marine seas near Bermuda. Intensity forecasts continue to increase-06z/19 attached.
  23. wdrag
    Hi! Adding this 12z/18 intensity forecast graphic. Based solely on this, my guess is Epsilon would be named by 00z/Tue -20th. ?? I should be corrected if others see it different. The only reason to post this intensity forecast is to show a general uptick in the intensity forecast from that which was posted a couple of days ago, and that some of the models swap intensity forecasts. I presume others are seeing the return of the Caribbean potential in 12z/18 multi models (excluding the UK/EC which have not posted as of this note). It is still e of FL with an unknown magnitude/track but I think worthy of monitoring. 123P/18
  24. wdrag
    Am not giving up on Caribbean Sea development around the 25th--- possibly now delayed 3-4 days for what appears to be a large named storm near Bermuda developing this coming week ahead. Water temp anomaly continues weakly positive in the Caribbean genesis area and northward the se USA coast. Last weeks GFS modeling for that that storm has trended null for that date, but my feeling based on fewer but still strong GEFS 500 MB members, is that something is going to get going there between the 25th-28th. Magnitude unknown and maybe just minor. In the meantime: Bermuda- soon to be named Epsilon, seems to be gaining support for a significant ocean storm in the Atlantic vicinity just E and N of Bermuda. Interaction with the Atlantic ridge seems to be forcing a little more w-nw displacement since we looked 24 hours ago, too far off the coast for direct E coast impact, but swells of 5- 6 feet will probably be (typo corrected 1227P) arriving LI s coast by 23rd-24th. This per 00z-06z weaker GFS-GEFS model guidance suggestions, from the still seemingly conservative GFS. WH near Bermuda should be exceeding 12 feet by the 23rd (graphic attached). I have checked Tropical Cyclone Phase (Robert Hart's page) on a number of models excluding the EC... it's modeled warm core. First I need to know we have a named storm and then monitor ridge adjustment to the north of it's eventual nnw-ne recurve.
  25. wdrag
    Hi! Been asked a question: Trying to save a little time... if someone here has an answer, could you reply. Thank you. 2005? Some sources have listed it as having 27 TS, others 28? Which is correct? Since there are 21 letters of the English alphabet used and the last storm that year was Zeta (6th letter of the Greek alphabet) wouldn't that mean there were 27 TS that year not 28? Walt
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