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0.13 in this part of Wantage NJ so far this morning... (0.19 this past Sunday-Monday).

Please see NHC and local NWS forecasts on Zeta associated wind and coastal flooding. Overall: modeling just doesn't seem to want to develop a significant trailer low near the NJ coast Friday morning due to waning structure of the current ejecting southern Rockies low aloft. This lessens chances of decent secondary Friday morning event...doesn't end it (in my mind) but doesn't look as good as days previous. Still a chance but not the likely solution. My expectation: If 4" rain were to occur, probably Ocean County southward. Otherwise possible 3" amounts or greater should be reserved for the region s of I80 including LI. Killer freeze I80 northward Friday evening-especially early Saturday, with a killer freeze possible most of the rest of our area except LI, NJ shore. Chance of a Low temp of 32 NYC Friday-Saturday appears much lower now and probably not happening. (00z/28 UK appears colder than the EC Friday-early Sat) As per prior Bluewave post---shortest period between Trace snow in NYC possible for Friday mid-late morning early afternoon. (Maybe a Trace of snow in the air next Monday Nov 2 as well?) Accumulative snow of 1-3" appears "possible" for high terrain N of I80, with even up to 1/4 inch near the city in NJ (grass-cars-roofs) but this possibility still has options for being less Gust 50 MPH possible e LI Friday morning-early afternoon but probably capped ~45 MPH (air temps 35-40F northerly flow advection over adjacent warm water near 60F) Minor coastal flooding seems probable with the Friday morning high tide NJ coast (did not check NY). Stevens and ETSS available guidance is a little higher than 2-3 days ago. Finally: To give us snow lovers hope...have added two graphics from the SPC SREF (plumes). You can decide what you like from these. I'm playing it conservative this morning. Maybe these means (Dark black line) will be right.... but am not convinced of that much.

Good Tuesday morning all, will be traveling this morning so won't be able to effectively-reliably comment but a very very quick read of the 00z/27 cycle op runs/ensembles. Yesterdays post still holds, tho a little concerned about models delaying changeover down into our area and resulting in a little less snow/cold drama. However, the 00z/27 EC op is holding firm. I wont post any pics since others will soon... and it may change yet again. In my opinion: IF the east-northeastward moving closed low aloft can maintain more structure as a closed low in its crossing the forum area on Friday, our chances improve for snow and a decent batch of heavy qpf Friday morning-early afternoon- if not: then the big qpf is Thursday and Fridays deepening of the sfc low off NJ won't happen and we go home frustrated by little or no snow (except I84 high terrain where I think some sort of accumulations are likely). Also...fwiw... IF they get 6+" of snow up in high terrain n of either I84 or I90 (Catskills-Berks-Greens-Ads-ORH hills), power outages would become a threat if it occurred in constant 32F dew point air. Still quite a ways off on having a reliable idea of any 6" accumulations. So from yesterday below: If 4" rain were to occur, probably Ocean County southward. Killer freeze I80 northward Friday afternoon-evening-especially early Saturday, with a killer freeze possible most of the rest of our area except maybe parts of LI. NYC first freezing temp is modeled for NYC by the 00z/26 and 27 EC. (00z/27 UK has dropped a lot of the snow and is not quite as cold as it was on the 00z/26 cycle) As per prior Bluewave post---shortest period between Trace snow in NYC possible for Friday. Accumulative snow of several inches appears "possible" for high terrain N of I80, with even up to an inch near the city in NJ but this possibility still has options for being less (GFS - Para seems to be the BEST model on this several days ago if this occurs). [[Corrected BEST for GFS PARA at 409P/26 ]] 00z/27 models generally backing off on southward extent of accumulative snow. on GFS PARA: if this doesn't happen down here--it was the first model showing sig snowfall this far south, and the ICON wasn't too far behind. So we may not know for sure which model is best, til 22z Friday. Gust 50 MPH possible e LI Friday. Minor coastal flooding possible with the Friday morning high tide NJ coast (did not check NY). Please follow NWS and posters here. 530A/27

No change in my early morning post on this thread. Will recheck again Tuesday morning.

0.17 here in Wantage since it began sprinkling here around 645PM last evening and measuring around 10PM. Pretty steady small drop rain now with .03 since 9A.

South side stronger I think initially coming out through the Delmarva. Then on Friday the upper low itself weakens opens eastward and permits the high to the north to approach and tighten north side remnant Zeta gradient with strong North-Northeast CAA during the afternoon in the boundary layer (over warm SST) and significant wind transfer from aloft.

If 4" rain were to occur, probably Ocean County southward. Killer freeze I80 northward Friday afternoon-evening-especially early Saturday, with a killer freeze possible most of the rest of our area except maybe parts of LI. NYC first freezing temp is modeled for NYC but the 00z/26 UK/EC. As per prior Bluewave post---shortest period between Trace snow in NYC possible for Friday. Accumulative snow of several inches appears "possible" for high terrain N of I80, with even up to an inch near the city in NJ but this possibility still has options for being less (GFS - Para seems to be the BEST model on this several days ago if this occurs). [[Corrected BEST for GFS PARA at 409P. ]] Gust 50 MPH possible e LI Friday. Minor coastal flooding possible with the Friday morning high tide NJ coast (did not check NY). Please follow NWS and posters here.

More TC after Zeta... (ETA seems likely early Nov down near FL-Bahamas). Zeta remnants involved here, though heaviest from Zeta itself should be s NJ/Delmarva. Wind 50 MPH for e LI Friday but indirectly Zeta in my opinion and a decent 850 LOW passes s of LI. Topic already started.

Considering a NYC forum topic for Thu-Sat 1-3" rain, maybe a touch of snow n and nw fringe but for me, it's a little early to have confidence of more than 2" of rain in our forum and/or 1" of snow high terrain northwest, IF snow were to occur. Timing-merger of the northern and southern streams late this week is imo, pretty uncertain, with vastly different storm tracking-precip shields. No action on my part for a topic, prior to 6PM tonight at the earliest. Just need a little more consensus.

Still monitoring 26th-27th ne of the Bahamas to near Bermuda for something subtropical or tropical-small, and not necessarily long lived. NHC not showing anything of interest.

Per 12z/24 modeling... looking pretty good and meshing more closely to previous versions of the ICON ,if an MSY-MOB vicinity landfall indeed occurs. I see TWO is near 100% prob formation.

CFP ~1130A in Wantage NJ. Dewpoint down 11F in 1 hr (51).

Is it me or is the GFS parallel fraught with the sometimes NAM meso modeling steroids as the model gets extended in time and buys too heavy into the short waves.?? I'm watching this GFS-P closely in the eastern USA as well as the ICON in the Atlantic tropics. For those that have been monitoring... my initial thought is the GFS-P seems too strong after 4 or 5 days... and the ICON is nice to have but not necessarily any better than any other global model. Any thoughts?

For what it's worth... Atlantic sea state as analyzed by NOAA OPC at 6z/24 (this morning). 9+ feet had extended back to the Bahamas yesterday. Swells of 6-7 feet are occurring along the LI Atlantic coast.

Long ways to go... model confusion on which, or if even two small storms this coming week. GMEX looking more warm core in this mornings Cyclone Phase diagram but selecting a starting point is important. EPS is less emphatic for the Central Gulf Coast. So I do not know but I think it's good to present the broad range of possibilities. If you check the00z/24 EC op... you'd be concerned about just off there se coast of the USA. May add another graphic by 806AM.

2c worth... based on 12z/23 models and not necessarily looking at this correctly.. ICON is interesting. What is more interesting about the ICON is that Phase Diagram is opting turning to cold core over the central GMEX (attached). I think between the 25th and the 26th,,, whatever happens has to meander north to near FL where there seems to be more favorable SST, moisture, and possibly upper air pattern. Still looks like a small tight system but a couple of the hurricane models are offering 64kt at 925MB approaching or passing close to FL. I'm definitely interested in the phase diagrams-utility. For now the NAEFS suggests looking e and ne of FL but I see the Euro/ICON etc look more favorably upon central GMEX.

.02 now at Wantage NJ from off and on drizzle this morning. Sun dimly visible as of 834A.

Wantage NJ 0.01" mist-drizzle here this morning. Looks to me like mist at times here through Saturday morning...and clouds predominant through Wednesday with best chance for Partly-Mostly Sunny sky Sunday morning-midday. As for 1-3" rains early next week.... modeling quite uncertain so am less confident than yesterday, though the option is there.

Zeta: later than sooner? Less clear to me on Bahamas tropical event per perusal 00z/23 multi model guidance. Invest has occurred and some intensity guidance goes for a TS but not many models and the TC Phase diagram is less likely, initially ~25th. Some guidance waits til the 27th in GMEX, and as per prior posts by others, the first week of Nov. I will say the NAEFS has something going northeast past Bermuda and i can see it vaguely in GFS/EC PWAT guidance for the 25th-26th FL east coast, east northeast or northeast from there. Many words not offering confidence on when-how-where Zeta evolves. Relying on NHC products. Have a good day.

Mostly cloudy and mild through Saturday with drizzle fog overnights-mornings, again next Monday-Wednesday with periods of rain with potential 1-3" of rain IF repeat episodes of rain overlap---that is an unknown but pattern favors a quasi stationary boundary around here early next week as I view the model guidance along with pretty high PWAT of 1.5" or greater. In the meantime: Epsilon has made a name for itself and we should see pretty good swell along our Atlantic shores Friday, 6-7'.

Zeta: ? My guess this has a 30-50% chance of forming... still warm sst. Minor (marghginal TS) event somewhere e coast Fl newd to near or west of Bermuda. Here's a modeling image. Several operational models show tight shallow warm core. Includes UK, RGEM, GGEM GFS, ICON, NAEFS implied (no JMA/EC). My guess it's a junk storm as some might call it, except if you're in it's marine path. Am monitoring models... definitely not what the GFS was calling for 10 days ago but something can yet emerge.

Possible w phase of northern stream. Going to be a problem next 5 days at least

Ships was highest early but consensus and experience probably tempered. Global models have been looking like a beast Fri-Sat. Have seen 95 KT at 850mb forecast. So yes all models way too low and way too slow. Walt 434pm

Already 30+ foot seas north and east of center and by Friday. I expect this to increase (possibly 40 foot significant wave height) with EC gradient generated max WH at least 45 ft near the center and this could be conservative. Here's a picture of OPC analyzed wave heights at 8AM this morning based on ship/buoy reports etc.