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Wrapping up: nothing happened Monday afternoon, probably due to some drying aloft, trough too close (West-northwest wind too close to the city).This gives the dry short term modeling the correct answer, (long term modeling was too robust for Monday the 20th).

Nothing going on and probably little or none today in our area. Closest shower at 335P looks near DCA. Where there are cu fields, they still look pretty flat. Was thinking LI breezes could go but apparently too stable, so far. 338P/20

Wantage NJ .02 in a brief heavy shower around 215A. 75/74 as of 638A..small patches of blue sky seen through deck of AC. Updating the outlook from previous mornings. Wednesday: Please see SPC D3 marginal risk for our area. Wind fields stronger than those of late yesterday and today, and much more CAPE/KI will be place. Thursday: Convection still possible. Sat night-Sunday strong thunderstorm northwest flow event...may be delayed to Sun night-Monday? Looks potent for a quick moving complex somewhere through the northeast quad of the country. Monday-Wednesday: EC is bonkers on heat and usually overdone - subject to large error...but ring of fire convection possible (around the rim of the Great Lakes northward bulging ridge) -in other words, 1 or 2 northwest flow events possible if not mid level thermally capped. Uncertain but interesting. 648A/20

Good Monday morning everyone, Have attached what happened since 6PM yesterday, lightning, severe reports and radar for our area (most of it after 22z/19 though there were a few isolated cells early Sunday afternoon in se NYS/ne PA). The reason for the attachments... the overnight reality was not well modeled by the models including the HRRR and SPC HREF (and still not as of 6AM/20). Which leads me to this afternoon. Please see SPCD1 and local NWS offices for details on any evolution. I know most of the models are dry except UK/Canadian have spotty action but I'm not convinced. I suppose most of NYC forum is out of the convection this afternoon, but I'm still alert for isolated eastward moving severe storms in our area developing 2-4PM this afternoon I95 corridor eastward, inclusive of extreme southern CT, LI, eastern and southern NJ. Plenty of instability with a surface trough nearby. Wind direction will start sorting itself out with mixing around 9 or 10AM and then we'll see what we have. If no new CU fields ~11A, then probably nothing. Mid level lapse rates increase this afternoon-especially south of the modeled 500MB -5C cap aligned just nw of I95 at 18z (thats why I chose I95 corridor southeastward and also thinking back to yesterdays SPC D2). GFS CAPE looks more reasonable then that very low 18z CAPE of the EC. 637A/20

Modeling looks terribly slow and ineffective for two bands of convection this evening in NYS/PA. Running much faster. If this is true... parts of our NYC forum, at least se NYS and nw NJ are going to experience a brief heavy shower or gusty thunderstorm between 815PM and midnight and possibly again near 2AM Monday. That leaves us with what for Monday afternoon? I think a pretty ripe environment for big storms maybe even up just N of I80...with interestingly large mid level lapse rates, especially I78 south. Not promising big stuff near NYC but it seems to me modeling (not SPC - check their Marginal D2) is missing potential svr/ff, especially southern part of our forum Monday afternoon 2P-7P. Will rereview how things are going Monday morning around 7A, but for now... it looks like big heat has generated big storms Sunday evening just west of the forum and I think very poorly modeled. If someone has seen a model that is performing admirably in PA/NYS to the Poconos and Catskills, please let us know. 735P/19

Posting topic shortly... too much going wrong with modeling. Not sure how this ends up. Topic will describe uncertainty. May be useless but you have to be bothered by terrible modeling. Walt 722P Results and update posted at 637A/20.

Wantage (southern part). Max 91.4. Currently 91/73 at 5PM. on SVR for Monday... think SPC did right cutting back on nw extent in our area. No topic at this time. Think it could go big near I80 south between 2-5P and then out of NYC forum by 8P. might start up here in nw NJ/se NYS as isolated thundershowers and grow in the more favorable environment I80 south some time around 2 or 3P. Meanwhile, leftover severe remnants from the POH Valley NYS/PA seem destined to die se NYS/extreme nw NJ as showers/iso thunderbetween 2A-5A Monday. Will comment in the morning based on SPCD1 etc. Enjoy the heat and cooling breezes! 503P/19

Good Sunday morning American Weather participants! Rutgers site looks to be working as of a few minutes ago. If not, please inform. I'd send them a message but I think whatever it was to halt posting data, is resolved. High T yesterday here in Wantage (less than 1.5 mi from Space Farms) was 89.6-- so that goes as 90 and our heat wave has started. Temp Outlook: I've no change in overall max T/HI through next Sunday26th as per yesterday. GFS continues to try to cool us Fri-weekend while EC/GGEM do not-jury still out but am not buying all that relief in the GFS around here. GFS may be too robust with a short wave passage late this workweek and the subsequent associated pattern cooling. The EC ensemble 500MB pattern is decidedly weaker with that far eastern Canada cooling. Convection Outlook: Monday..a little worried that upstream severe this evening sends dying showers/thunder in here predawn Monday, with the associated surface wind shift too close for us in the afternoon except southeastern New England and s of I80 in NJ. That could mean nada for most of the NYC forum except NJ s of I80? However, it's too early for me to throw in the towel. While modeled CAPE is not quite as robust on the EC (my main cue guide as prior operational modeling), it still has plenty of PWAT and KI over us through early Monday afternoon. Won't start a topic on the SPCD2 marginal(I liked it's read) until late today. Want to see the HRRR (12z version through 18z Sunday pick up on something around 17z, and certainly the 18z run pick up on something for Monday afternoon). UK has a little something tomorrow morning while other Global models in general have dried out the QPF here in the NYC forum coverage area. So, the heat may be wasted for convection here...I just don't know, but the past 24 hours of modeling has me much less certain on Monday's convective threat outcome. IF convection does flare, mid level lapse rates look pretty sizable to enhance convection. Winds marginal. Just too early. Wednesday should have some pretty good activity in our area...stronger signal than tomorrow=Monday. Thursday...? potential exists for sizable convection but need to focus on Monday, Wednesday first. Saturday night-Sunday: GFS is basically zip but I like the GGEM-EC staying on message with main uncertainty where the strongest convection will track. A northwest flow severe signal is d present (mid level northwesterly enhanced flow) with capping a possible issue (along the edge of the -4C 500MB might be where to find the convection). So this too is uncertain, because of modeling differences. Til later--- I'm probably off line til late day. 838A/19

Wantage 84/65 few this sc generated since Noon. Basically brilliant sunshine. Maybe we'll have a clear shot at the Comet this eve before a little AC forms later at night.

I'd heard of that near LA and absolutely-common sense! Have no idea of NWS plans. I think the military has been using WBGT as their guide for 50+ years. Posted this article because of the Law relating to HI litigation. This may accelerate research-and any subsequent change and comments. I've drifted away from descriptive adjectives spicing up the weather and just letting the numbers dictate local action.

Noting no convection for NY forum Monday in the 12z/18 NAM. Might be because surfaceT forecast in the NAM3k is about 5 degrees too low for the afternoon. I think the convective temp is modeled around 95. So we're going to need to get to that value to get convection started. Could see this as a bit later start Monday... maybe closer to 3 or 4P if it takes longer to reach 95?? Still uncertainty.

Have posted this as new topic on wx and forecasting. I will try to add another useful table shortly... but thought you would be interested in the Law striking down use of the HI for sending employees home. https://www.natlawreview.com/article/judge-finds-no-scientific-basis-nws-heat-index-chart-used-osha-heat-stress-cases?fbclid=IwAR3GqCKx7x0of72DYREF9X-mU7e34H2ECMQfyr71R0tmeJE_XTG9NtwkkdY May be replaced by WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature- 82 might be a threshold). I'm not studied on this and I'll try to get more info and add to this topic and if there is any predictive data to view.

Let's discard this topic if it's been posted elsewhere. Thanks. https://www.natlawreview.com/article/judge-finds-no-scientific-basis-nws-heat-index-chart-used-osha-heat-stress-cases?fbclid=IwAR3GqCKx7x0of72DYREF9X-mU7e34H2ECMQfyr71R0tmeJE_XTG9NtwkkdY May be replaced by WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature- 82 might be a threshold). I'm not studied on this and I'll try to get more info and add to this topic and if there is any predictive data to view.

Good Saturday morning American Weather participants, No significant change in thinking through Sunday the 26th. Heat wave for sure non-marine influenced, with max temps near 97F Sunday-Monday and possibly next Sunday the 26th, for portions of the lower Hudson Valley, northeast NJ near EWR etc, interior Fairfield and New Haven counties of sw CT and possibly NYC? HI for sure near 105 Monday. Little cooler elsewhere but sweaty. Eastward moving FF/SVR scattered about Monday afternoon 2P-10P (marginal risk out already by SPC in its D3), Wednesday afternoon-night, and possibly again Saturday night or Sunday the 25th-26th. Thursday the 23rd is not locked out of a FF/SVR threat but looks less potent and so am not highlighting. Sat night-Sunday (25-26) could be an unlikely 2 episodes, but so far in the future. What I'm sure of is that there will be strong WAA with a 500 MB -4C cap nearby in a northwest flow severe environment with a pretty good jet barreling southeastward into the northeast USA. My guess is late Saturday night is the primary threat on that one. PWATS Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, Sat night-Sunday all near or above 2" with KI 35-40. (Mondays current SPC D3 may start this as a topic sometime Sunday-just want to keep everything going on this thread regarding the upcoming 8 days modeled interesting summer weather) Last night: Attached the radar storm total from last evening-overnight, modeled best by HRRR radar, and definitely a surprise for me, especially extent-long lived event, even into this morning in the Atlantic southeast of LI. Looked impressive from the backside here in nw NJ. Not that much lightning but biggest storm tops look like they made to between 35-40K. It was good that PWAT had come down from the morning or the several 1.25" reports would have been much larger. 755A/18

Wantage NJ, .06 so far this morning 6A-10A... model cued past few days for this morning per instability burst, PW bumping up to 1.8", Ki bumping up into the 30s with a burst of westerly wind near 850MB. FGEN/WAA. NAM3K has an idea of the generation from tropical tidbits lower dynamics section. Saw .3 in Wxunderground southern LI. Attached OKX Storm total radar analysis thru 11A today. Might be a little light in nw NJ but acceptable.

Good morning American Weather! It's Friday. Patches of showers which had been on the wane between 4A-6A are now increasing a bit. In fact, I just clicked off .01 here in Wantage of nw NJ with radar not showing anything over me at 615A. So, it looks to me like this is mainly a morning shower event. I figure if some of us don't get anything this morning, not much can happen late today when the column has dried out at mid levels. The HRRR and couple of models are trying for a brief heavier southeastward moving shower or low top thunderstorm late this afternoon, especially east of the Hudson River, so I defer to that possibility but it doesn't look like much if anything to me. The future: Still hot and humid with model disagreement, especially Thursday the 23rd onward. Some of the heat numbers are little lower midweek, but that could be timing of showers-storms with time of day of the modeled temps. Thinking 90F begins Saturday away from waters influence and of course below 1000 feet elevation. Sunday looks like mid 90s to me. Could be 97F in a few spots but NYC/LI/S coast CT subject to the vagaries of the wind direction. Monday: I think this is a big convective afternoon 2P-9P, with capping (warm temp above 10C at 700MB, and/or warmer than -5C at 500MB) being a possible limiting factor. Otherwise, looks to me like a trough nearby as a lift mechanism with GFS modeled 6 to 6.5C mid lvl lapse rate (700-500MB - best of the work week when CAPE/KI/PWAT is in place). CAPE should easily exceed 2000J, PWAT 2.1, KI 38...activity shift s of I80 around sunset. May be the best chance for HI105 this week. Late Tuesday night? WAA showers/storms from se PA-s NJ develop northeastward?? Probably not occurring but WAA and keeping this in the back of mind. So far, WAA early mornings have not been very productive in my outlooks for thunderstorms (has just been a few showers). Wednesday afternoon-early night: Could be big for showers and thunderstorms with PWAT 2.2, 2000J and KI up to 38 in the evening. Next weekend: GFS nada, GGEM-EC say look for another 90+F day with potential for a period of big convection. ECMWF 500MB -4C capping might be a limiting factor. Something to monitor to see which model group performs better. In summary: am looking for a few SVR/FF in parts of our NYC forum Monday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon/night with HI 105 Monday and max temps into the mid-upper 90s Sunday-Monday away from the waters influence. This based on the model science-pattern cues. 636A/17

I think the data is not tainted if foliage is similar over the years. I don't want to get into the weeds on this, but CP has a problem if indeed it has become overgrown like this. Fortunately we have many other sites nearby with period of record beyond 50 years. I think Blue Hill has handled it thoughtfully well to keep the record relatively intact, as in it's beginnings.

Same w snowfall: Airport measurements are generally not by NWS, but instead by someone for the NWS, within a mile or 2, and something like 100ft elevation -this since we went to ASOS in the early 90s. Snow measurements are not an FAA mandate. Instead, as noted herein earlier, NWS directs those with interest in climate stats to use nearby representative sites and develop a regional average for snowfall. BUT, having worked in BOS (now BOX), I know the Blue Hill Observatory about 10 mi south of BOS and elevation, home to the longest continuous weather observations in North America... had trimmed foliage nearby its sensors to keep the record similar. Federal monies may not be available for something like this in CP, if ever approved by NYC etc, but for the largest city in the USA, might still be worthwhile.

Good Thursday morning American Weather! I'm out of the daily details on 90+ prediction. It's coming this weekend and difficult to believe that we will avoid 105HI here sometime between Monday the 20th and Sunday the 26th (modeling may tend to be extreme but my ideal of 850T at least 21C at 12z for potential 100F seems a best fit for next weekend, if some of the models are accurate??-zz GGEM-GFS). Convection: None yesterday except extreme s NJ and ~ PHL. Friday morning: Think at a minimum scattered showers and probably isolated thunderstorms 5AM-Noon in our NYC forum. Elevated based convection. WAA and 850MB frontogenesis (FGEN).. PWAT increase to 1.8" Sunday even-night? Maybe a thunderstorm se NYS/sw CT? Monday: PWAT 2", KI modeled to near 38, 2500J. Looks prime to me for scattered big storms with a trough nearby. Is it capped at 700MB?? Suspect not and mid level lapse rates may be interestingly large for svr potential per 00z/16 GFS modeling. Tuesday: Potential WAA big gully washers (FF)-especially central NJ southward where very large CAPE and decent mid-level lapse rates. Capped near 700MB? PWAT NYC down to 1.7 so action may be mostly s of I80? Wednesday: PWAT modeled near 2.1", 3000J, KI 38 and maybe this is Long Island breeze intersections as well as interior developments. Should be interesting. Thursday: Possibly not quite as potent as Wednesday. In summary: while many places will miss the big storms including FF/damaging wind, it should still be interesting for parts of the area...details and confidence left to the start of day boundaries/pooling of high indices. 638A/16

Good Wednesday morning American Weather! A little more complex next week per frontal boundaries. Hope for the 100F but my guess is not, and if so...probably only vicinity EWR. Nevertheless it will be rather hot at times Sunday-Thursday, with 90 probably starting Saturday (HI should make it close to 105 on 1 or 2 days). Big storms... too complex for me now, to be sure of anything. WAA showers/roll of thunder early Friday (see SPC 7/15 issuance upstream D2 severe for late Thursday). Debris may mess up Fri afternoon. Then next week is a mess with potential for a couple of decent episodes. Just not as clear cut to me when and confidence. (btw, interesting CAPE and some modeling for coastal NJ/NYC area this afternoon for a brief shower?) 625A/15

Presume awareness of isolated shower clusters advancing south thru se NYS and sw CT portion of the forum at 6P. Presume these will die around sunset before reaching I80. EC continues 850 jet NYS Thursday night with decent WAA into New England and NYC forum w showers and maybe an elevated based thunderstorm by daybreak Friday. Current EC trends sweep the primary Fri afternoon threat for refiring convection s of I80. Heat is on beyond Friday per the notes by others herein. My view of next good chance of big thunderstorms is Monday, with the work week day's thereafter as per pooling of CAPE/KI/PWAT without a cap...worried about 500MB cap Tuesday. So am uncertain about Tue convection materializing. We're also getting to the time of year where sea breeze boundaries in a high CAPE environment can light up convection on e LI, with less chance in nw NJ if boundaries aren't present there. In other words, Suffolk, eastern Nassau might do okay next week for afternoon convection "if" and near seabreeze intersections. We'll see if this can happen? 620P/14

mPing: I may be late to the table on this... apparently a big problem developed ~7/7. Not sure who corrupted the db, but here's what NSSL has. If there is more updated info, please update me. Thanks, Walt What happened to the mPING app? On July 7, 2020, mPING was flooded with false weather reports and was shut down temporarily. We are working to eliminate vulnerabilities that allowed these false reports to be submitted. However, this may require some time. Once the app is updated, everyone will have the ability to submit mPING weather reports and view the interactive map of mPING reports. We appreciate everyone's patience as we resolve these vulnerabilities. The mPING project is a citizen science collaborative effort led by CIMMS and NOAA NSSL.

Good morning. Might get a brief wrap around shower north of I80 this afternoon? Then looking ahead, not much change from yesterday. Looks to me like WAA elevated convection arrives here near dawn Friday (mostly showers, but a roll of thunder is not impossible). That debris might clutter things up for a convective event here late Friday afternoon-evening but something to monitor as PWAT and convective indices offer a possibility. HOT (90+) appears likely for many parts of our non marine influenced coastal plain almost everyday from Saturday (18th) forward through most of next week. A large convective event or two is possible for portions of our area, guessing from my basis ECMWF modeling, most likely Monday (20th) or Tuesday (21st) of next week when others will additionally comment on the chance of near 100F (and HI 105+), and then again possibly next Thursday or Friday when modeling becomes more uncertain and so for me, much lower confidence. On 100 air temperature... need surface wind to be westerly or northwesterly, especially CP-LI-coastal CT.522A/14

Wantage NJ 0.26" 9PM ish/12 to 2AMish/13

Too optimistic... office's can be tied up in forecast processes, resolving communications difficulties, be it radar, computers etc, answering media, following twitter, messenger, automated data platforms (of which there are many). Now with COVID, not sure how many are in the office to assist (teleworking?). Here's a link which i didn't try, but presume works. You may want to include in the narrative your equipment, exposures for wind...if time and if you feel necessary. I liked to see credible data and sometimes NWS has to initially filter out data that at first glance looks suspect. Any problems, please let me know. Thanks for checking back on this. I recommend this for everyone. Just use the criteria that they give you (pasted below the link - used PHI since it's slightly more compact-note the SVR reports that SPC posts. A large branch can count. https://www.weather.gov/okx/SubmitStormReport Submit Storm Report Submit a Report! Send a Storm Report to NWS Mount Holly Privacy Policy Users can send storm reports via email to the following email address: [email protected] Please provide the following information: Name and/or Skywarn ID Phone number City, county, and state Latitude and longitude (if known) Date and time of the weather event Type and description of weather observed (see the table below) Photographs of measurement and/or damage, if possible The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ greatly appreciates the cooperation and dedication of all of our spotters and cooperative weather observers. Tornadoes Flooding Winter Weather Tornado Funnel cloud Wall cloud Persistent rotation Flooding that results in evacuations Water rescues: cars, roofs, or trees Water rapidly rising, or entering homes, not just basements Roads impassable or closed due to high water Small streams or rivers overflowing their banks Moderate coastal flooding, not just nuisance inundation 1”+ snow in 24 hours 1”+ snow in past hour Freezing rain/drizzle Any ice accumulation Thunderstorms Miscellaneous Tree uprooted or downed > 1 large limb downed Power lines downed Hail (any size) Rain > 1” in past hour Winds > 40 MPH Damage to structures Tsunami Any injuries or deaths that are weather related