wdrag

Hi. 12z/8 modeling still quite variable, some suggesting heavy rainfall, especially LI-CT. As of the 2PM Wednesday NHC TWO---70% chance of developing into a tropical system. Usually, for heavy rain, and tracking a tropical system. I try to follow the 850MB vort. East-southeasterly Inflow suggests a period (duration unknown) of heavy rain much of the NYC forum sometime Friday or Friday night-Saturday morning in PWAT greater than 2.25". I tend to focus on heavy rain being very close to the 850 vort center. May see brief gusts near 35 kt for a short time in squalls near the center NJ, LI coasts. I don't think tidal flooding is major concern, and it will have to be perfect timing with the high tide cycle since we're descending into the lower part of the tide cycles. We may not see much lightning with this, except in initial intensification Thursday or Friday. Others should comment and adjust the thinking and keep track of everything. Not sure who moves this thread to Tropical "if "it becomes named FAY? Thanks for all!

Starting subtropical low/??FAY?? topic in a few min.

The Hudson Valley contributor amount matches Digital Storm Total. Suggest using it as a guide for qpf. Have thunder here in Wantage but paltry .08 here in the southern part of Wantage. Note sure why mPing is not working. Been on and off the past several days.

I see NHC increased to 70% prob for naming... per 8AM TWO. Need time to think on this...include see the UK/EC op around 230P. Thanks for your vote of confidence.

Excellent discussion and thanks for the post. Cutting white pine limbs outside so am in and out. Let's see what happens.

Hi! The primary reason i didn't is it could be a named storm, plus dealing with the uncertainty of this afternoons potential 2-4" clusters (not well modeled so far). Let's get to 9PM tonight and see where we're at. I don't like to post wrong ideas, which I'm a little worried about for this afternoon. For Tri-early Sat: (50% Fay?) Been a little concerned about ensemble and UKMET east of us on the Friday track which probably would feature most of the qpf along and east of the low. Haven't evaluated Friday more than cursory. You're welcome to start the topic but for now, for myself working with the forum, just waiting another 12 hrs or so to have a little more confidence.

Not sure what to make of 12z modeling? It doesn't recognize the heavy rainers very well to start and doesn't do too much with these storms moving toward our NYC forum area. Have seen 2" rainfall rate in ne PA...per digital radar interp. I'd think that is likely...but NWS radar #s are less. Jury out but barring the 12z modeling, I'd be concerned for big storms nNJ, interior s NYS this afternoon. I have to give some credence to modeling. I did note the 00z GGEM did a similar shutoff after 12z today. Unsure. Meanwhile SPC expanded marginal to near our nw NJ border. 77.4/73.6 in Wantage at this time.

Good signs for heavy convection here: convection in progress advancing eastward into ne PA. TD 70-74 as far as I can tell in nw NJ at 1140z...when TD exceeds 1000-500MB last 2 digit thickness value, considerably raises the chance for rain (my own observation over the years-no science). In this case around a 574 thickness and TD here at the house ~73F. Big thunderstorm afternoon appears likely for NNJ/se NYS. 1153z/8

Good Wednesday morning: PWAT-CAPE look good...convection is likely. Believe worst of this is interior se NYS/NNJ with east southeast dying spillage into NYC (not e LI) and maybe sw CT. Cant increase confidence any further, since am concerned about 90F heat making it into the NYC forum. It will be close-just south in central NJ. HRRR convection seems in part related to its modeled hot 90+F temps, so am a little concerned this is overdone. Still, PWAT-CAPE might make up for not much deep layer shear to allow 1 or 2 wet microbursts SVR/brief small FF episodes in our forum area, again mainly se NYS and NNJ, west and northwest of NYC. Please monitor your own favorite resources, including NWS products and forum friends. Not posting anything for Thursday, with lesser chance of anything big, and mainly extreme nw NJ into se NYS early Thursday afternoon. Friday is unknown on whether a named storm so not touching that. 628A/8

No changes to thinking: certainly have no thought to increase the impact. Continued concern about sunshine-heating. Dont like to forecast real heavy convection for stratus regions, unless its WAA (CT/LI look like stratus at least in the morning). Noticed some showers late today eastern LI, now departing. Maybe more toward dawn? Anyone see the radar estimated 1" w of TTN this eve in those small showers. That tells me that if convection does light up as still modeled for NNJ, interior se NYS Wed afternoon, that it will produce torrents in the path of the storms. PWAT still modeled nr 2" 18z Wed, higher than the TTN showers modeled 1.7"ish pwat of this Tue eve. CAPE still modeled near 2000J ~18z Wed. I like the look for big storms NNJ/inteior se NYS. We'll see if it happens and will check back ~7A Wed.

237PM quick update: next update, probably not til ~7am Wednesday. Cutting back max rain amount from wet microburst-outflow thunderstorms back to about 4" (isolated). Just not quite as robust as Monday... less intense heat, not quite as unstable but ~2" PWAT still modeled to be bullseyed somewhere vicinity NYC or just west-northwest. Capable of isolated SVR/FF mainly se NYS/northern NJ, southern boundary of convection probably near I78. Spillage of storms (east-southeast) into NYC sw CT. Did notice SPC extended the D2 Marginal risk southward to the northern border of the NYC forum area. So, in advance, had to cut back my expectations - probably too much cloud and not enough heating. CAPE only to about 2000J and this is modeled more into nw NJ. SPC HREF for D2 has some 1.5" MAX amounts west northwest of NYC and these max amounts in the ~8 member ensemble can be a little underdone, provided robust convection occurs.

Hi!. A couple of summary maps for checking back. I think the DIX radar estimate is reasonable..maybe too high due to hail, in a few of the extreme locations but here it is. As far as I can tell, a couple of known 2.5" reports in ne NJ-see CoCoRAHS map, several 4-5.6" vicinity PHL (realizing not NYC forum). Erred and probably should have caught the preponderance of large hail reports in advance. However, time moves on. (Trace at the house here in Wantage ~8P but occasional thunder). I noticed the Multisensor-radar data seems a little low, especially Philly area and maybe in the radar only, 2+ inch area across ne NJ.

644 AM Tuesday update to this topic: Unleashing rainfall yield for Wednesday: have some doubts per max T forecast and basic 00z/7 QPF modeling. Today: Subdued convectively due to cloud cover but I would think scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, not as widespread-intense as yesterday and not easily-reliably modeled. Might be more near the PA/NJ/NYS tri state border on down to vicinity TTN? IF these occur, potential for 1.5" spot-rainfall in a concentrated tiny area. That per WPC D1, SPC HREF. Moderate confidence. Late tonight: subtle WAA, might yield a cluster of heavy showers and thunderstorms toward eastern LI ~ dawn Wednesday. Low confidence. Wednesday: Featuring NNJ/se NYS with some possible east southeastward storm drift into NYC, sw CT after ~6PM. PWAT 1.8-2", More unstable than Tuesday but if temps cant make the upper 80s... then potential yield for big storms and isolated 5+ in doubt. It still appears Wednesday afternoon-evening should be our big convective event of the Mon/6th-Thu/9th time frame, similar or a bit less compared to what occurred near PHL Monday. KI/CAPE/PWAT slow movers in a fairly steamy uncapped environment developed on the remnant warm front/sea breeze boundaries and subsequent outflows, should promote thunderstorms-"potential"prolific rain producers in part of NNJ/se NYS, spilling east-southeast over far western Long Island. Since we saw probable 5-6" rainfall in isolated locations of Morris County NJ and down near PHI on Monday the 6th, it won't surprise if similar isolated 5"+ rainfall occurs in the NYC forum Wednesday. My main concern: do we get enough heating (temp upper 80s)? Potential for short fuse warnings flash flooding and maybe severe wet microburst wind. I'm not thinking about the Friday (low chance FAY? per NHC 2AM/7 5D TWO 40%)-weekend cold front events, understanding in part that the Friday event may need to drop into the tropical portion of the forum? (if it becomes named). Just need to take one day at a time (Tue-Wed) and look for subtle instability/moisture pooling along any boundaries to produce big summer thunderstorms.

It's a bit early, but while Tuesday may be a subdued day compared to this afternoon in NJ, it appears Wednesday afternoon-evening should be our big convective event of the Mon/6th-Thu/9th time frame, similar or a bit less compared to what occurred today near PHL. KI/CAPE/PWAT slow movers in a fairly steamy uncapped environment developed on the remnant warm front/sea breeze boundaries and subsequent outflows, should promote thunderstorms-"potential"prolific rain producers in part of NNJ/se NYS, spilling east-southeast over Long Island (heaviest for LI probably NYC vicinity, but unknown). Since we saw probable 5-7" rainfall in isolated locations of Morris County NJ and down near PHI on Monday the 6th, it won't surprise if similar isolated 5"+ rainfall occurs in the NYC forum Wednesday. My main concern: do we get enough heating (temp upper 80s)? Potential for short fuse warnings flash flooding and maybe severe wind. Will reassess Tuesday morning, possibly updating this topic. I'm not thinking about the Friday (low chance FAY? per NHC 2PM/6 5D TWO 40%)-weekend cold front events, understanding in part that the Friday event may need to drop into the tropical portion of the forum? (if it becomes named).

Will be interested in all rainfall reports 3+ today (I saw the digital storm total-tho wonder if thats a bit of hail contamination). I did see near 5" report Fox Chase PA (near PHL). Will need to revaluate but I think what is happening Philly has decent chance of occurring here in NNJ/se NYS-NYC Wed afternoon-eve, probably less hail but maybe as much or more rain. PWAT/CAPE/KI on EC are seemingly parking here on Wed. Anyway, 3+" rainfall reports in NY forum area, if any, are appreciated and any 5+ in se PA/s of I78. Will start a topic shortly for Due-primarily Wed.

Outflow generated but all these, wherever they develop should eventually turn south or southeast guided by mid level flow and heading for higher CAPE which appears to me south of I80 (also a boundary apparent in NNJ, per check 14z wind field only). No cu here yet in Wantage--definitely bothersome especially for 84/68. Will see what happens. Off line for a while. 1033A/6

SPC thinking and some of the modeling has it unstable in se NYS this afternoon. I see GFS qpf bullseyes, a large one in central NJ but another near the southern Catskills. If you see Cu Congestus or Towering Cu around 11A... you'll be good for strong storms nearby. I write too often in idling time due to the pandemic, but also from a selfish standpoint. I dont want to have to water our gardens every night and am quite fortunate to have a pool. Drought means I have to use well water (precious). So, I am looking to at least hear thunder (Terrier barking) and we both should have a storm but... impact could be quite minor, or briefly severe. IE look for action but whether a direct hit???

As previously modeled and noted by many on this forum...a busy 7 days upcoming for heavy convection-and challenges, not much different from previous days posts. My own concerns are prior to Friday-weekend. Have little doubt about isolated 4+ inch amounts in our NJ/se NYS forum area by Thursday evening (multi day total) but where, and when its greatest impact is less certain. Difficult to escape a few SVR, FF events (metro runoff)..again where?. Monitor NWS products and your own for more detail on reality. I don't want to look too far ahead, so am not going to focus on Friday-weekend for a couple more days. Need to see some qpf production between now and Thursday.

SPC D1 prompts this topic. Have a little concern that todays strongest storms (2-3" rain producers/damaging wind) will be concentrated down in central or s NJ, but some spots in our NY metro from NYC westward should see isolated SVR late today. Think eastern LI is out of it today. However, with the large CAPE axis just s of us, cannot rule out a cluster of drenching thunderstorms forming-developing eastward later tonight and eventually making it to eastern LI. This latter is with considerable uncertainty.

I see one shower crossed the western part to CT last night--insignificant. 18z GFS was spatially far too wet - in our area. Poor 6-12 hr minor qpf performance.

What's up w 18z GFS (wet overnight into parts of NY forum)? I do see a shower heading se from NYS for sw CT. Hmmm? Will check in the morning to see if anything happened. (HRRR is dry, so far).

Good Sunday afternoon, Just a couple of notes: SPC upgraded mid Atlantic tomorrow to "marginal". Not sure if it can happen along the NYS/NJ border but trust SPC considerations... modeling that I/we might not be aware of. Also, IF and/or when NHC starts Edouard/FAY??? mid week and confidently-reliably projects QPF impact here (still easily could be an unnamed low), we may want a separate topic from what is potentially going to develop Monday afternoon through Thursday. Think the indicators are continuing in some of the 12z/5 modeling for an active-heavy QPF Mon-Thu in parts of NY metro (including parts of LI-WAA). SPC HREF has potential for 1"+ thunderstorms near or south of I80 Monday afternoon-evening (HREF mean qpf is less) responding to increased CAPE/PWAT and the associated instability burst, with a little 850 flow kink modeled toward our area. and below from SPC regarding Monday potential: ...Southern NY/western PA and the Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... Modest vertical shear will exist across the region on Monday afternoon/evening, with strong flow and forcing for ascent focused further to the north over New England as a shortwave trough shifts eastward and eventually offshore. However, a very moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F common. Strong heating (high temps 85-95) will result in steep low level lapse rates and MLCAPE values from 2000-3000 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates also will be steeper thanks to cooling aloft associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. As a result, clusters of thunderstorms capable of sporadic strong/locally damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible during the afternoon and evening.

The future briefly per use of some of the modeling info: Continues interesting for me/NYC forum. I think lots of rain... isolated ~4" by Thursday evening in a couple of spots of NNJ/se NYS? WPC 00z/5 products are starting to move in the right direction...increasing amounts but not everyone is getting more than 1/2" by Thursday night. WARM front is the focus and it's not only afternoon/evening, but some unleashing of potential during the overnight. Late today: possible isolated decent thunderstorm, I think mainly sw CT drifting toward LI. Trough reinforcement. Monday late afternoon evening: I believe the GFS convection. PWAT CAPE-KI will be increasing. More attempted details tomorrow but GEFS has easy 2000+ sfc CAPE modeled near I78. Tuesday-Tuesday night: Warm front should be quite active. PWAT increasing to between 1.75-2". Looks interesting to me. Wet microbursts (SVR) possible? Wednesday afternoon-evening: remnant warm front, PWAT-CAPE still up. Still some torrents around. Thursday: CAP 700-500MB may develop, but if not...then I think we tend to see convection primarily north of I80 (extreme nw NJ-se NYS-CT) but drifting southeast as the warm front to our south should have dissipated northeastward ahead of the subtropical low(see NHC X this morning and it's projected path). Friday and weekend: Eventual 2+ PWAT and unloading torrents either from the subtropical low itself (track-timing uncertain to me as per operational cycles of GFS/EC/GGEM/UK), or the cold front developing eastward with the Great Lakes trough and focusing heavy convection late Saturday or Sunday? I hope this is a good week for those enjoying the benefits of convection. 706A/5

Commenting on the early Sunday morning activity NJ coast that had a few showers, even over w LI. Nothing analyzed for a trigger that I could see in OKX/PHI early AFD's. Only comment is the GFS. It is my favorite for convective potential (even the overnight operational HRRR missed this; SPC HREF -12z/4/00z/5 had an idea but too far inland). It (GFS) may be spatially a little too large but if it pumps up something, best to evaluate and consider all the reasons why it won't happen, before dismissing. GFS was flagging this a little bit, back to the 12z/4 cycle (tropical tidbits previous runs verifying 12z/5).

Wantage NJ ~8 s High Point just tipped 0.02" with our 310P shower, T in the 202P shower. We'll take it. 81/73 at 313P EDT July 4.