wdrag

0.20 Wantage NJ since around 3 or 4A, most of it after 10A.

NHC up to 60% on the Bermuda storm (Epsilon?) at 2P/16. This one apparently will probably stay out there vicinity Bermuda before taking off northeast after the 22nd?

EC is seeming to come aboard now with two storms... still lackluster on the FL storm but at least it admits something.

Just for fun: I've finally found the LR GEFS wave and wind forecast site for the Atlantic. Graphic below is for chance of wave heights above 12 feet around 10/25. This is accomplished without the 00z/16 OP contribution from (?Zeta? = Cuba-FL vicinity). Note the sw Atlantic. I checked Cyclone Phase Analysis and Forecasting for the Bermuda - Central Atlantic storm of 20-23... its warm core on all models. To me, that suggests a named storm eventually. Probs slowly coming up on the TWO. SST may be a little marginal in the initiation area but if it does slip southwest for a while, it may move over more favorable ocean heat. Also, SST continue a bit above normal se USA coast and e GMEX and anomaly is tending to depart positively a bit there.

Phasers are not easy... so fwiw... I like them but so easy for them to miss or come in pieces.

Remember Sandy? Different pattern but W VA mountains I think got hammered with 2 feet (EC had it several days in advance). Right now I need to go one step at a time... I want to see the Bermuda storm happen (only a hybrid? in stead of named event) and then we need something decent near FL by the 25th-26th. I do recall someone posting very recently about GFS physics being biased cold, later in its future forecast steps... so for now, I have to think of climo, cold biases and lack of phasing potential--- all not in our favor but it is a member of the collective ensemble.

At this distant view, I take more or less what the ensembles give me... and that yes... the TC of whatever sort bothers FL around the 25th-26th (could be west coast) but eventually heads ne along the SE USA coast and then too far s and e of us BUT, tropical systems also alter the upper air patterns---not exactly sure if it's the chicken or the egg- but I expect more ridging to develop in the W ATLC and more troughing near 80-85W and therefore an option for a coastal hugger up the E coast. For this situation, UNTIL i see no storm develop, or the trough remains as its now modeled-too much 240 degrees flow up here (instead potential 200 degrees flow)- I wont lose sight of that option. Let's see what evolves.

Good Friday morning everyone, I am paying attention to the pattern around October 25-27. Zeta (my expectation only-if the earlier near Bermuda system ~10/20-22 doesn't get named Epsilon, then I suspect the FL system around 24th-25th would be Epsilon). We'll see if the 500 MB pattern adjusts to a sharper trough near 80-85W longitude as the EPS is starting to trend recently. If not, then no problem. 00z/16 NAEFS shows something along the se USA coast then peeling out to sea northeastward. VERY VERY early (9 days) but based on multi op models and multiple ensembles, am glad am not cruising Bermuda to Key West...I think its going to be a little on the rough side as opposed to typical daily tropical. Again, only what I'm looking for. It still may not pan out. 657A/16

Good Friday morning everyone, No topic for me on todays rainfall... helpful for sure. Am expecting basically 1/2 to 2" depending on repeat episodes of showers. Note impossible to see 2.5" but to me this is relatively normal. I am paying attention to the pattern around October 25-27. Zeta (my expectation only-if the earlier near Bermuda system ~10/20-22 doesn't get named Epsilon, then I suspect the FL system around 24th-25th would be Epsilon). We'll see if the 500 MB pattern adjusts to a sharper trough near 80-85W longitude as the EPS is starting to show recently. If not, then no problem. NAEFS shows something along the se USA coast then peeling out to sea northeastward. VERY VERY early (9 days) but based on multi op models and multiple ensembles, am glad am not cruising Bermuda to Key West...I think its going to be a little on the rough side as opposed to typical daily tropical. Again, only what I'm looking for. It still may not pan out. 654A/16

8PM NHC post tonight... 00z/15 issuance. All very low probs so I'll defer to the eventual reality... something potentially to look at between the 19th-27th.

My final on this event: Here is CoCORAHS sampling (entire event). Not sure if anyone saw how much rain fell in Hartford County yesterday (Southington etc). I know Hartford is out of our area...but over 4.5" up there and so our area only has a documented max of around 4". Graphics are appended for verification purposes.

Good Wednesday morning... It's now 4 days since the GEFS was signaling two new TC's in the 17th-26. CAVEAT: I'm NOT-NOT A TROPICAL EXPERT. All i do is read the models-ensembles-trends, realize pattern recognition generally adds value and then use all the experts surrounding us (Including here and other forums) and go from there. I also try to account for the possibility of modeling expectations to fail---i.e. NO storms. That said... Whether a TC-hybrid comes up the E coast ???? timing timing timing with the primary trough reforming eastern USA next 2 weeks. What I'm 80-90% confident of is one, probably two Tropical Cyclones in the week of the 19th-26th in the tropical Atlantic (Epsilon, and Zeta). This was first developing as an option on the GEFS ~ Oct 10th 00z-06z cycle. The GGEM is now grabbing onto the first s of Bermuda around the 20th. The EC has something too, and in the operational cycle brings it nw to the se USA coast by the 24th. However the 00z/14 EC ensembles progress west and then have a difficult time figuring out two storms (one heading west toward FL, the other moving north from s of CUBA). The GEFS continues strong on the second storm and tracking uncertain. SST continue above normal near the FL coast (below normal near Bermuda and w GMEX due to prior storms upwelling). 00z/14 NAEFS has some idea but undefined right now... My "guess" is in a day or two, NHC TWO will latch onto the first disturbance heading w toward the region s of Bermuda- the latter TC disturbance may not be defined for another 5 days---? Experts should comment here on MJO favorability for the tropical 19th-26th?? (I'm also not an expert on the MJO impacts) I've submitted this for critique on the tropical forum looking for some contrary expertise. My take for my own use: If I had a choice--I'm not taking a cruise between Bermuda and Key West between the 19th-26th. I don't need to deal with the pitch and roll of a rough sea. (Did that on FAMFLOAT with the NWS back in the early 90s and it wasn't a TC--just a winter storm). 1115A/14

CAVEAT: I'm NOT-NOT A TROPICAL EXPERT. All i do is read the models-ensembles-trends, realize pattern recognition generally adds value and then use all the experts surrounding us(Including here and other forums) and go from there. I also try to account for the possibility of modeling expectations to fail---i.e. NO storms. That said... Whether it comes up the E coast ???? timing timing timing with the primary trough reforming eastern USA next 2 weeks. What I'm 80-90% confident of is one, probably two Tropical Cyclones in the week of the 19th-26th in the tropical Atlantic (Epsilon, and Zeta). This was first developing as an option on the GEFS ~ Oct 10th 00z-06z cycle. The GGEM is now grabbing onto the first s of Bermuda around the 20th. The EC has something too, and in the operational cycle rings it nw to the se USA coast by the 24th. However the 00z/14 EC ensembles progress west and then have a difficult time figuring out two storms (one heading west toward FL, the other moving north from s of CUBA). The GEFS continues strong on the second storm and tracking uncertain. SST continue above normal near the FL coast (below normal near Bermuda and w GMEX due to prior storms upwelling). 00z/14 NAEFS has some idea but undefined right now... My "guess" is in a day or two, NHC TWO will latch onto the first disturbance heading w toward the region s of Bermuda- the latter TC disturbance may not be defined for another 5 days---? Experts should comment here on MJO favorability for the tropical 19th-26th?? I will submit this for critique on the tropical forum and there could be some contrary expertise--- so this is my impression of expectations. My take for my own use: IF this applied and I had a choice--I'm not taking a cruise between Bermuda and Key West between the 19th-26th. 1107A/14

curious as to your final event amount late today-, thanks!

Wantage NJ at 2P..drizzle slowly ending. Total today 0.60, entire event total 1.07. Central Park event total 1.29" through 18z/13. Maps posted... two radar sensor combined analysis. The MARFC version looks more accurate, bit it too is running a little shy. The southern region radar analysis (second radar image) is definitely too low in coastal NJ. Also added NY MESONET totals as of 1PM, and then CoCoRAHS 2 day total through ~8A today. Tomorrow I'll add the 3 day CoCORAHS update. Bottom line many 3-4" reports Monmouth-Ocean Counties in NJ...solid 1-2" LI and most of NJ, 1/2-1" CT/se NYS except maybe extreme northwest edge of the forum a little less. Will add some probable final comments to this art about 215PM. Look back: this didn't work out too bad. We didn't bite quite as hard on 3-4.5" focusing south. Onset was delayed slightly (4 hours from projected), winds and temps were good. Updated wind concerns for early Tuesday were overdone.

Wantage...still quite rainy... 0.99 total now with more today, than yesterday... so far 0.52 today. Frankford Township just 7 miles away 1.69" Rain ended there. RGEM best model for the very short term... GFS/HRRR/ICON have been poor performers on the trailer across NJ se NYS.

Wantage now at 0.68" Still increasing. Minor but modeling was pretty good... overall.

Very well ---- advance analyzed. This helps us all..Thanks

Looking ahead here: Potential wind/rain event Fri or Sat?, then next Tue or Wed (20-21), and finally a tropical system of interest near FL around the 24th-27th.

Good Tuesday morning all, CP 1.12", i think for a storm total through 6A, Wantage NJ 0.62 More coming through midday except it probably quits NJ shore around 8-10A. Ends this afternoon from W-E per what I think are the best performers early today RGEM/GGEM and ECMWF op runs from 00z/13. First graphic is general expectation from 8A-4P... except probably nil after 8A s of I-195 in NJ, maybe almost nil at I78, again after 8A. I've added on some mapped sampler amounts since about midnight. (Am pretty sure we exceeded 3" Storm TOTAL parts of the NJ coast.) First 6 hourly is the NJ CLI sites, then NYS Mesonet, then a broad WU. Bottom line...nice rains early today with largest .5 to 75" amounts NJ coast-e LI. May not be posting much 8A-1P. Have good day.

My last til the morning. CP 0.91 as of midnight. Wantage NJ 0.47 Several wrap up graphics added for todays 24 hour calendar day rainfall. NJ CLI rainfall leads, followed by several graphics from WU... a few data points suspect but while far E LI very little so far...less than 0.1"; the rest of Long Island an easy 0.75 to 1.75" today, se NYS as presented (less than 1" except near HPN. CT should be coming up now. NJ shows a number of 2+ along the coast from near New Brunswick down to ACY. Radar shows the bands of enhanced rainfall moving northward pretty quick. Should be more interesting toward dawn when we wake up to a new day.

I think radar is looking better for heavier rains to the coast overnight per radar return and northwest drift. Two official NJ CLI sites in our area over 2" per attached along the NJ Coast. Also official NYS mesonet. This as of about 929P. NJ coast has 10 more hours. LI another 12-14 hours.

CP up to .82 as periods of rain-drizzle continue spreading north. Appears some intensification beginning on the se inflow along the De Coast. We'll see if this translates north.

Adding WxUnderground... some of the data looks inaccurate... but I'm not surprised at many amounts 1.2-2.2" LI and NJ coast.You'll know better than I how the data looks compared to your own sensors. 5P

Snapshot rainfall today only in NJ...several reports 1.45-1.75" NJ coast and one I see near 1.9". It goes up from there from now on. Solid helpful event NJ/LI and I would think eventually NYS/CT.