wdrag

Wantage NJ 0.11 330A-now.

ECMWF: In case you didn't see this... All the standard ECMWF web charts will become freely available on the ECMWF web site from 7th October

Wantage NJ 0.06 so far since 330A.

Yesterday, the 12z/30 UK was offshore of CC with the 10/5 coastal. Today, more models are light on qpf for Monday and less organized... and that's what I'm going with for my own expectation. Models are good at broad indications but difficult to be detailed accurate on D5. Best to blend. Am watching ICON model more closely but unless someone on this forum knows differently, it's just another consideration with no advantage beyond the GFS/EC/GGEM blend.

Good morning all, It is Oct 1... My interp of the NAEFS indicators from a week ago (Sep 23-24), were too cool here for the first week of October. Now, looks rather ordinary for the first week... near normal or at times cooler than normal. The period of the 7th-11th might be a bit more interesting pending eventual short waves diving into the Northeast-Maritimes with the associated low pressure system and subsequent cool air delivery. It's in this time frame that it might briefly turn a bit colder than the first week and a bit of snow is still indicated for the Adirondacks by GEFS/EPS ~ the 9th. . Climatologically, seems as if nothing extra-ordinary is in the offing for at least a week.

I'll use this post as my final summary for this event, possibly adding/delete maps later today based on late arriving reports. The graphic is the CoCoRAHS D1 summary. Not in there is the 4.2" amount in Mercer County (Ewing area near Trenton NJ), in the sw corner of our forum. I saw flooded road references on NBC4 ~6A this morning and am pretty sure there has to be damage reports (non-thunderstorm) that I haven't yet seen posted. No matter, this event was decent (am aware of pittance rainfall NJ coast and eastern LI) with the bulk of the forum experiencing heavy rain NJ-se NYS/w CT; or wind gusts 45-55 MPH vicinity NYC eastward. And this from only 1 storm. This link is PHI's PNS for rainfall. 1032A/30 https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi At 1037A, add PHI tweet analysis of the PNS rainfall. I like the narrow 3-4" slots. At 350PM, added this PNS from OKX... has some pretty decent winds. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Updated CoCoRAHS 1 day graphic. Will update again later. Suspect there is more wind damage out there on LI than announced so far. Also, many reports of G40kt or greater e of I95 early today per datascope-weatherflow. I'll be interested in all reports our NYC forum of 3+". In my opinion the models generally focused NYC-NJ-Hud Valley on 1.5"+ as we drew closer to the event and I felt they handled handled the potential for damaging gusts quite well. The expected NJ coast development after 11P last night ended up further West and became much narrower crossing the eastern part of the forum at dawn. Still, considering only 30 hours of rain at most, many cases less than 8 hours...these amounts are pretty good With spotty 4+ Berskhires and near PHL (n and s of forum). I did not check WU two day reports... E LI your time will come...will try to comment more on projected max qpf axis in the future. I'll update just before Noon on rainfall and wind. Thanks for your comments (-/+) 747A/310

Adding some power outage data as of about 630AM. Definitely had some damaging wind (spotty i presume per very recent Wantagh post).

Wantage NJ 1.34" so far. DIX radar axis 2-3" amounts looks as best axis. Suspect it's running low. Many G 40-48 kt NJ coast into se NYS Hud River area eastward since midnight. Here is a very early CoCoRAHS map of reports since about 8AM yesterday. No FFW/SVR issuances..

NJ totals today per Rutgers Climate site through 754PM. Many higher numbers sampled by WX Underground.

PWAT will increase during the night through 2 am. I think even at 6AM there will be a trailing band of moderate showers n-s vicinity of NYC after the primary band has scooted off to eastern new England. The trailer with the 850MB front.

Think DIX STP/OHP more accurate than OKX/DOX... OKX started about 5 hours later. Definitely 2-2.75" reports just e of PHL...amny 1" reports TTN area and 1/2-1" NNJ.

Bunch of wind damage reports central NC now, also 1.-2" of rain on the Rutgers climate site near PHL into sw NJ so far today.

Starting to show hailers in that frontal line...small. so far only 1 damage report upstream as of 520P.

This looks like the exact WPC issuance for the period after 8PM tonight. Their Excessive risk has expanded. We're only at the beginning. If all goes to the modeling, their should be quite an increase around 11P-midnight NJ coast spreading rapidly newd. Never ever SURE til it gets going but it seems to me the SVR's in NC now could be the start. Check back around 8P to see what is happening along the mid Atlantic coast.

Here's some more amounts now in NNJ... .4 to 1.1" so far today. looks like a lot more coming by 00z/30. 457P/29 (added the correct map at 459P/29

414P: The lead rainfall is pretty decent in NJ/se NYS as of 315P. Going to be pretty volatile between 11P-7A east of I95 Watch NJ coast first light up with thunderstorms and rainfall of 1-2" in an hr developing near midnight (lasting an hour or two) then spreading ne across parts of LI-CT. PWAT well above 2" for a short time as moisture transport becomes very strong after the 11P news cast. The driver is a modeled 60-65KT SLY jet vcnty ACY at 06Z (12z/29 EC/UK op models), up to 75 kt vcnty PSM 11z/WED. Added WU rainfall so far today for se NYS, its a little less in NJ as of 1 hr ago. Also added the the latest HRRR max gusts, and the EC-WX.US attempt gust algorithm. Lots of 50kt in both. These may be 10-15 kt too high? but if I were living on LI/CT I wouldn't be surprised at a marginally svr thunderstorm between 2A-5A, then off it races to the ne. Let's check back later, or review tomorrow. The idea is to be ahead of the potential reality and prepared. If it doesn't occur, then the modeling is not accurate.418P/29

Since we're basically in a 10A Tue -10A Wed event with bulk of heavy qpf midnight to 8A Wed, expecting general rainfall in bands of 0.4 to 2.5" with isolated 4-4.5 possible but less likely than 2 days ago. SVR potential seems to be increasing early Wednesday morning for the region east of I95 as all models rapidly increase the southerly 850MB jet to at least 50KT nosed into LI around 06z/Wed, intensifying to 75KT or higher east of Portsmouth NH 12z Wed. (00z/29 EC op is stronger) To get to 4" rainfall, will need some 1/2-1" amounts later this afternoon vicinity NYC. Should be a narrow band(s?) of of torrential rain later tonight including thunder on LI where 400J of sfc based CAPE is modeled. In summary, this will be an interesting event for some in our area, especially NYC-NJ coast-CT coast eastward. Isolated 4" in this event istill possible but less likely than modeled 2 days ago due to no Wed night event. Isolated shower-tstm wind gusts of 50 kt are possible LI...not likely, but possible early Wed. mPing still valuable for unusual flooding/wind damage reports. 3 HR County FFG added to show the most vulnerable areas to possible overnight FFW...mainly LI and possibly ne NJ-NYC. May be my last post of the daylight hrs. 528A/29 corrections 732A to pgh 1 and gave svr it's own line (above mPing)

Considering this is the day before the Tue-Wed event..some impressive amounts in western NJ this morning--attached through 540AM.

Good Monday morning, (returning to part time county work today after a 6 mo Covid reduction-so posts may be a little fewer). Added this mornings D2/3. Looks like a little amplification-and even less chance overlapping heavy bands so we'll let this play out as originated. (Monday morning .08 so far 3A-515A in Wantage NJ).

First two weeks of October continue to look interesting: Suburb hard freeze (timing clear sky/light wind around 4th and after), snow Catskills-Ads (still GEFS'd as per 06z/27 cycle around 6th or after), and while not seen again recently in operational models, a tropical system appears plausible for near FL in the 4th-10th time frame-(probably later portion of this 6 day window), and thereafter an interaction with northern stream along the mid Atlantic coast per NAEFS (still). Here's a snapshot to show what can been seen in some of the modeling... 30 members of the GEFS for 06z/7. 1511z/27 couple of min or corrections at 1831z... no change in the intent,

Despite the fact that it hadn't rained for more than two weeks (Sept 10th general last significant rainfall), the upcoming pattern will probably produce two significant rainfall episodes, Tuesday and then Wednesday-early Thu. One or both of these could result in a few NWS issued Flash Flood Warnings with total 60 hour rainfall in a few spots of the NYC forum exceeding 4 inches. PWAT will be more than 1.5" most of Tue-Wed exceeding 2 inches for brief periods. Isolated SVR may occur along to east of I95 (including LI) but that is a low chance and not tagged as the primary subject matter and not outlooked by SPC this Sunday morning Sept 27 We may want to check for updates on SVR potential early this coming workweek. Have added the Sunday morning D3 WPC Excessive Risk rainfall potential for Tuesday and suspect there will be another issued tomorrow for Wednesday (maybe axised a bit further east). mPING reports will be helpful (flooding and even damaging wind). Hopefully a few of our members will have some 4+" reports by Thursday (max rainfall = very low chance could be 8" but that will require unusual overlapping heavy swaths and so a very low probability, but mentioned due to multiple models trying for this in or near our area). Otherwise, areas of showers/drizzle late today through Monday will precede the Tuesday-Wednesday events, and could produce spotty 1/4" amounts by Monday night. 832A/27

Nothing much new here... SPC is expanding fire danger in CA next week per strong ridge aloft. You have all your local guidance. HRRRX near surface smoke looks a little difficult for the slopes of the Rockies as per these posts... near surface and vertically deep smoke layer projections. for 06z/Tue the 29th... heading south.

Good Saturday morning, Seems like cooler than normal delayed one day from previous days D8-14 NAEFS posts, but coming. To my eyes, it gets interesting, especially 4th through the 14th. Trough axis is generally just west of us so we don't get the max cold shots seen in the Great Lakes-Ohio Valley. Still some notable day or two of chilly temps the first two weeks of October with a slight snowfall still possible Ads/Catskills sometime in there after the 4th and even Meanwhile, tropics look to be activating late next week. The NAEFS has a fairly impressive northward spreading area of heavy rain in the southeast USA. Suspect interest will be directed there for the 7th-10th, and how it may interrelate with the northern stream up here.

Good Saturday morning all, Lot's to speculate upon in two threads. Smoke aloft shifts mostly north of our forum today-tomorrow. Meanwhile fire danger increases in CA next week per big ridge aloft out west with SPC outlining D3-4 out there, even as fire danger in shorter term near the Rockies has resulted in a new plume out of southern WY. No topic yet on previously posted qpf graphics for Mon-Wed night but potential exists for pockets 4+. If that occurs over high density related infrastructure then iso flood problems. Just too early but potential exists per modeled QPF max's. Oct 1-10 in the Oct section.