wdrag

Thats my experience. We shall see - the idea is that its slightly colder just north, allowing larger dendritic growth.

Wantage NJ 36/18 at this time. Dewpoint down from yesterday afternoon's 30 and we won't reach the 43.5 of yesterday. Amazing short duration event if it pans out 6-8" here between 430P and 430A.

Power problems? I95 at midnight?

You're very welcome. It must be the lack of obs either via PNS or LSR or lack of CoCORAHS obs or NWS COOP. Here are the CoCORAHS obs. Only one of 4"

NAM signature: One visual for 06z/4 attached from the 06z run. Pretty darn consistent and nice stretch now... Not sure where you see EC banding? NAM very consistent. This will definitely build amounts along and north of this black band, above qpf 10-1 relationship. I didn't see snow ratios... but a caution... not much cold air at the sfc, so I dont think more than 10-1 ratio along I95. Another I95 caution, am hoping UVM can overcome the +32F aloft... NAM prob of frozen is below 80% PHL-NYC on I95. Your or anyones counter comments welcome, with some science support I hope. Thanks. Walt

For what it's worth...BANDING signal continues...looks pretty big to me from se NYS through CT to near BOS. That means .6" of liquid could easily be 10" instead of a 10-1 6". Also, roads will not have quite as much due to initial 1-3 hours of melting. Also...with 6" or more falling in a 32-33F environment near I95, I could easily see power outages...especially ne corner NJ into srn CT. We'll see if the snow materializes as now predicted. Confidence is that it will but jury, as always, still out deliberating.

For the most part... I think the EC is too low but I can easily see a +6F low Thursday morning (looking at LI temps as more realistic). Snowcover helps. I see many are following the warmer GFS MOS on this. We'll see what happens but this has been advertised as you said, for many many days now. On the snowfall...the EC did back off temporarily with its 00z/3 cycle but has come back up. ENS from the GFS and EC appear a little low. I am going to ride with the NAM, as my usual for the first 48 hrs. The only time I hesitate with there NAM is when it ABRUPTLY changes. Then I need another cycle to confirm its change. The record for Thursday is I think 7 above in CP.

Here is more info to support what I think is a pretty good evaluation. It in part depends on the observed information being assimilated with there Satellite. A link is provided, plus a snap shot graphic of one of the important pages. https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/technology/pdf/snow_data_assimilation.pdf

Interpolated from the reporting system (satellite and obs). If the obs didn't make it in, which i dont know exactly what they accept, then that impacts the evaluation. I just don't know why Westchester is not properly evaluated.

Good morning everyone, two things: the obs thread for March 2 was just updated with the final NOHRSC snowfall analysis. Should look pretty good. Also, I attached the NWS collaborated snowfall forecast for tonight here, in case no one else posted this earlier. This is as of 5AM/3rd.

The final NOHRSC for yesterdays snowfall: Note the spot 6" NJ/NYS s RI to CC.

Added the banding product from the 18z NAM to my prior post several pages ago. Pretty consistent. Here are the associated NAM UVM in what will be a saturated dendrite zone forecast nr 06z/4. LGA pretty good... and BDL outstanding. It's a model signal. Whether it holds is a question but its ben there at least 3 successive cycles. SOURCE of TSEC MOE-FSU. All of this develops a little late for e PA but worthy of seeing how this actually turns out. We'll see if this holds into the 12z/3 cycle.

BIG time raise back clos"er" to where it was ides cycles... OP 1" qpf stripe nr PHL-ISP and 7+ nw NJ. As snow88 said, warm outlier but banding is a consideration. I'd watch NAM trends through the 12z cycle tomorrow. IF the NAM comes on a little heavier, many on here will like. There is a pretty strong front aloft associated with this event coming thru tomorrow night. Jury out, but worthy of recognizing travel tomorrow evening in NNJ/CT hilltowns could be quite bad IF/when? 1-2"/hr snowfall rates develop for a 2 hr period. Fingers crossed.

Snowfall analysis, see legend, only thru 7A. Will try to add there whole event late this evening. Not too shabby for a midnightish start.

Never a straightforward event, but I think the probs are too far nw and will probably slip closer to I95 in the afternoon update... New accentuated frontal zone aloft lift is near NYC-BOS... so it should be there or just nw of there that a stripe of greater 10-1 snow fall occurs, whatever the eventual qpf. always model fluctuations but as a private sector met noticed...faster and further s trends, which means less qpf-snow, but still this will be nice event, and I think a little larger than the one of this morning. I dont know how many recall... the GFS had this mornings event as RAIN, and big low up in the St Lawrence Valley. EC and other models recognized early on a better chance south. But I hope the EC fans, dont get to enamored...it busted badly days in advance of the Wednesday event down I90 (2-6" stripe BUF to BOS), the one that the GFS had well ahead of the EC, just too far s. Added the 18z NAM banding potential for 06z/4. Consistent and pretty large with its 12z/2 run.

Maybe more so I95 corridor vcnty TTN-NYC-BOS. Here is the new 12z run view at 06z/4. Somewhat further S. The way I look at this. QPF will probably 10 to 1 or thereabouts I95... roughly. NWS has the details on snow ratio blender. BUT, I accentuate the pmts near or just north of this transitory band 10P-4A...a stripe in there should get more than the 10-1 conversion.

Few early thoughts: I am a NAM 12Km fan...I think better than the 3K though I'll reevaluate demonstrated other superior model opinion inside 60 hours. I've added then probabilistic graphic I used early this morning...looks too far nw to me... and I think, if the next several runs of the NAM concur, there will be a pretty darn good band of 1-2"/hr for 2 hours setting up somewhere near FWN-BOS line 03z-09z time frame. Two graphics attached: mid shift probability 4+, axis looks too far nw to me, but the future modeling may confirm this location or a shift. AND, an advance notice of FGEN banding potential, near 06z/4. If the transitory enewd moving band occurs, then I see a 9" stripe somewhere along or just north of it.

Will leave the forecasting to the prior March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat thread. Enjoy this 4 day snow event spell, to the max.

Apparently CP 4.0, EWR 4.2 JFK 3.2 and LGA 3.4 all 7A reports. Sorry for the repeat I didn't see several earlier replies. anyway...NAM Positive snow depth change tends to be conservative (Hardly ever overestimates-will post NHRSC snow map after the 12z NAM, and update that tonight, when it incorporates after 12z snowfall.

Wantage NJ 8S High Point. 0.3" in the past 25 minutes and vsby down to ~1/2-3/4mi with storm total 2.4. larger flake filled air. Nice stuff. 28.8 at 710AM

Wantage NJ 8mi S High Point 2.1" at 645AM. Still 1-2MI s- small flake snow. 28.8F. Noticing areas near I80 doing much better than Sussex County with 4-5" from near RDG-PTW-Hunterdon and Morris counties in NJ (NWS Mount Holly FB page comments + the forums).

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point 740'MSL 435AM report. 1.4" new, steady S- small flake. 28.4F.

Hi all, I haven't been following posts closely but making sure we are aware of the vast differences between the 00z/1 GFS and 00z/1 EC. This i think will be an EC win vs the GFS for the mid week chill. My take: Near record cold Thursday morning the 7th CP. Temps in Sussex County of nw NJ will probably be at or below freezing from late Monday afternoon through early Saturday. Morning lows over the rural areas will drop to zero or below on a couple of mornings, especially Thursday when wind chill may be 10 to 20 below. How it all works out is not 100% but the coming snowpack should help us toward the EC solution. Fingers crossed the snow "depth" forecast of the NAM through 18z Monday is spot-on minimum. Walt

Good afternoon all, Posted a map of what occurred through 7AM, most of it after midnight. This does not include the remaining snow after 7AM. From NOHRSC. Thanks for your value added information. The legend has the amounts. Somewhat tough to discern but an idea. For me, at least through the 06z/28 cycle, I did not anticipate 2-3" nw NJ (bullseye) this morning. Kudos OKX on the mid shift of the 28th picking up on 1-2" NYC.