wdrag

Pretty clear the NAM in particular (ALL Models wayyyy too warm tonight at the sfc ~I80 north) was overzealous on moving the sfc low inside NYC on its 1/19 runs. Now the 00z/20 has much less se BL wind on the FOUS and here is where shallow cold air in the bottom part of the BL prevails. This I think is going to be dangerous for glaze between 2A-8A somewhere from near I80 interior NJ n to I84. The good thing ,when temps are sub 23F, the rain can freeze into ice pellets instead of be a glaze. Still, do not like the prospects for power in the area stated above at sunrise Sunday. Fingers crossed that most of the ZR runs off. Probably my last post of the night both here and the 3.5" on the obs thread.

Wantage NJ 8s High Point 1105PM: 740'MSL 3.5"snow. Ice pellets seem to be mixing in. 23.7F.

Think guidance temps including HRRR continue running too warm at the sfc tonight. "If "a sfc wave forms on the warm front overnight, all bets off on temps rising above freezing Pike and Sussex Counties ne PA/nw NJ through much of se NYS before sunrise. Current Cold air southward drainage/wet bulbing ALB southward looks to me to be a meso-microscale problem and now that we have snow down, seems to mer precip conduction will be primary warmup toward sunrise to 32F here. Long ways to go to warm now. Lets see if the models get back on track and warm it up. I may not report observed weather on the obs thread again til dawn Sunday.

Wantage NJ 740'MSL 8s of High Point 855 PM 1.4" snow and down to 25.9.

Wantage NJ 740' MSL, 8 MI s High Point. SGB ~450P. Transitioned to steady light snow by 6P with 0.1 at 605P. T down to 28.9 after a high of 32.7F. Will not report again til we surpass 1".

Would like to keep this an observations only thread of what will be an interesting 18 hour winter storm 5P today-2P Sunday, with potentially high impact (damaging power outage) glaze from somewhere near or just n of I-80 in nw NJ/ne PA northward to I-84, after a front end snow/sleet combo prior to midnight.

It may be premature-but ensembles are heading this way... WPC 357 PM QPF has about 3" of qpf the next week or so near I84 (sleet-snow zone?). if this materializes, hopefully snow load is not a problem the end of next week, or if its rain~ I-80 south, rivers and streams... Interesting time ahead. Just have to take these one at a time. Season total snowfall with the 0.8" this morning 11.3 in our southern part of Wantage NJ.

CocoRahs has a bunch of reports... also....Nice PNS out of PHI. That should do it for me on this event.. flurries here the past 5 hours. Til late Saturday. Walt

Not to be a distraction: to watch 24-25... big QPF in the 00z/18 EPS and 00z-06z/GEFS then, after rain or ice to rain Wednesday. So we'll see if its all warm or the second part is wintry (24-25?). ?

From my vantage point none (EC seems warmest)... but needs to be considered. Front end thump should formidable along or just N of I80.... lots and lots of sleet possible I84-I80... just not clear cut except that it's big qpf in 12-18 hrs... best banding could be between I84-I90.

Also added as for what its worth... graphics NOHRSC snow depth and departure from normal this morning.

Good Friday morning mets, weather enthusiasts et al, Several images, all produced by the NWS ~4-5A today. Some are experimental. 1) prob for 12+ ...probability legend coded...orange 80% prob 12+. WPC 2) prob for >.10 glaze. Probability legend coded. Only 40-50%. Probably in part due to excessive runoff of heavy zr, when/if it occurs, and also it could be sleet. It's a statistical probability. WPC 3) collaborated snowfall forecast of multiple WFO's. NWS 4) Experimental IMPACT graphics, based on WFO collaboration of snow and ice. NWS The following calendar day cold -Monday 1/19/19 - MLK Bday - imo, is going to be our coldest since 1/17/09. I think that adds to the overall impact but is not accounted for in these graphics. Later, Walt

Nice report. Thanks...l It think it important to keep these obs all in 1 area, especially if you ant media to use the data. Thanks for posting. Walt

Not sure where anyone is posting on this light event?

Wantage NJ 4 sw 740'MSL (8mi S of High Point NJ). Snow acc roughly 10P-450A 0.8" densely packed broomable snow. roads being plowed now. am aware of 1 school delay far NNJ at this time. T 22.8 here with very small flake snow falling at this time (458AM)

Has anyone discussed the potential for a combined flash freeze (not sure of definition but I'd say ~20F in 2 hours from above to below freezing) combined with ongoing precip, and couple of hours of n-nw wind gusts of ~45 MPH Sunday in our area. Seems like a possibility from all model guidance? If you wish, let me know your thoughts. Thanks. Walt

For what its worth, without snow cover, we're doing pretty good on negative departures here near I-80. Here are the 13th/12th (top and bottom) avg temp departures from the SERCC perspectives page. I'll add the 14th to this post tomorrow land then leave it at that as we trend bit milder at times 15th, til the ~20th-21st.

I just calculated FDD and through today (now), your ice should have gone from mil to 3"... your report is close to what should have ben. Very helpful. Not sure that 3" is safe.Am more certain of 4" but anyway, thanks for your report! Walt

Excellent NWS northern edge forecast of measurable pcpn for NJ issued Saturday afternoon... with the fluff 10z-13z/13 light snow to the north measuring melted .01 up to I-80 on CoCoRAHS but not ASOS. Certainly not the .10 i expected I-80 region for this event. Attached a few images of possible interest regarding this past weekend's storm totals, plus current snow depth and departure from normal (early morning 14th). Click the images for the details. Any questions on these, please ask. Have a fun week anticipating.

Flurries early today for nw NJ as per Vernon report, but so far I haven't noticed any in this part of Wantage and lower elevation (740'MSL). While there is still an option for a new resurgence later today/this evening (see GOES16 sector 1,2 IR loop of lift in OHIO Valley/nw PA), its doubtful ever to make I80 (dry low layer-attached TSEC image from the 06z/NAM for Sparta NJ). You'll see how it picked up on the Vernon flurries of early this morning. The SPC HREF ensemble (as well as drier GFS) from 12z/12 being a solid predictor of snow...keeping measurable melted w.e. to near I78. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/ If you haven't reviewed this above link, its worth a look. Imperfect like anything else but useful. Wish it were better news up here... I see 5+" so far at IAD.

Lets see how this evolves... All i see is all models trending ever so slightly north (have not checked the 18z/12 GFS) and the op GFS especially has a tendency to be too far south on these storms. i cant remember model performance on the Nov 15 snowstorm except NAM prob of frozen was not helpful in the I95 corridor. I do remember events from Dec 9-10 through now, and the GFS tendency in my estimation is to lose too much definition aloft and therefore, be too far south.

Posted the results (verification) of long term guidance in the Dec 26-Jan 3 range: In nutshell, guidance was decent on dates of significant pcpn events and much colder trend, just too cold on 1/4 and 8 events. But now to the upcoming Sunday-Monday. You've probably noticed a recent cyclic trend north, that I doubt will waffle back south. 500mb is apparently losing the upper low less and less as it moves east from the central Plains and reinvigorating it as it crosses the mid Atlc coast Monday. I rarely see less than 16% pops on both models be wet in a large scale storm, inside of 4 periods (48 hrs -see NAM and GFS 12z MOS for JFK), The dry dew points are a problem, but I also think its becoming clearer that the confluence zone will be a bit further north, allowing the potent storm to dump in two or three episodes in NJ, even up here to near I-80 on LI. EPS especially is catching on (I think its correct about sending decent snow further N, especially Monday, even ensembling a closed 500mb low along the NJ coast). The GFS JFK MOS has its highest 6 hr pop Sunday night (16%). NAM from 12z and 18z is having trouble, probably figuring out a coherent 500MB pattern and associated surface response. So, we'll all be model watching. I dont think it's yet out of of the question to see .10 or greater qpf by 06z/15 all the way up to I-80. I'm not saying it will but its looking a little better now. For what its worth. All this EC model guidance probably was too late for the early afternoon NWS collaborative watch/warning/qpf/snow amount effort? or there may be other guidance that says no way to the EPS. All i know, its been big in MO and the Ohio Valley and I dont think it will wane nearly as much as even now modeled. I've attached an automated stats graphic for the prob of 2" or more of snow by Monday night. Note I-80 in the 40% portion of the band. Shall be interesting for a while longer, especially Monday morning. fwiw...its been 32F or lower in Wantage NJ since 830PM the 9th.

Posting results of long term guidance in the Dec 26-31 range: In a nutshell, the low pressure winter event of Jan 8 was not as anticipated via modeling in late December. The low was split into two events in 24 hours-further north and therefore warmer. The attendant snows and wake CAA lake effect beneath the deep trough aloft resulted in decent snows. I even heard of plowing/salting w school delays in Pike County ne PA this Thursday morning (higher terrain of Dingmans and Milford PA), which is adjacent Sussex County NJ. So it wasn't as much as anticipated but without decent extended modeling (1960's-1980s versions), we wouldn't have had much of an idea, including specific dates for cold outbreak, and specific dates of the events as poor mans ensembled in the Dec 26-31 notes. I'll add this image below to that verification on p2, by Jan 12. Posted 736P 1/10/19

From the NJ State Climatologists office (Rutgers web site) regarding NJ annual record for 2018: It is appropriate that the weather of last month of 2018 was rather similar to many earlier months in the year. Statewide, precipitation was above average for the 10th month of 2018 and the temperature was above average for the 8th month. This resulted in the year being the wettest on record and the 11th warmest since statewide observations began being calculated in 1895. https://www.njweather.org/news My probable last post on this. Walt

Contributing the interest through the 12z/8 ensembles. I've noticed the EPS and GEPS 24 hr qpf edging north (GEFS further N than the .10 EPS). Does this continue or recede with cold dry air on the north fringe a problem? Also the EPS and GEFS in particular are taking the positive tilt southern stream and intensifying into a nearly neutral n-s position crossing the mid Atlc coast the 14th. On the GEFS, several members differ sharper slower than the 12z GFS op. UK has shifted south but at least the EC op through 12z/8 is steady with a period of S- to just n of I80 on the 13th. JMA is possibly too sharp and north but worthy of the most impressive course look. Long ways to go...but the way i see it. Trough in the east... almost everything the last 6 months or so seems to sharpen to the coast and tends to shift qpf a little northward toward T0. Confluence zone latitude between the north and southern 500MB stream will determine ultimately and i think we'll see that edge a little north. Long long ways to go for the short wave interactions ultimately determine the flow interactions. btw... its raining pretty good here this evening in Wantage. 36F, down from our max of 39. had .02 freezing pcpn early this morning and .15 since about 3PM. We're heading for a storm total between 1AM this morning and 7am Wednesday of 1/4-1/2".