wdrag

Good Tuesday morning everyone, No significant change to my update of Monday morning. Timing has slowed slightly but otherwise I think everything looks good for a moisture infusion and potential for some heavy rains in parts of our forum. The primary event looks to be centered mostly Saturday. Added some NAEFS (52 member graphics), inclusive of the 24 hr QPF axis, the ensemble low position Saturday evening (it's a broad area of low pressure. and imagine there will be 2 lows, one further north in or near the eastern New England coast, and one down off Virginia or Delaware at that time,) jet dynamics (200mb jet core over the Canadian Maritimes leaving us in the RRQ). and finally the probability of more than 1" axis between Wednesday evening and Sunday evening-showing the primary qpf axis with this tropical influenced pattern. 551A/25

Good Tuesday morning everyone, Yesterday's radar is attached. pinged a 2-3" per OKX radar and Digital storm total Fairfield County CT, with SVR just east of the forum in Portland CT and as posted above in ne PA with a few 1" wxunderground reports into nw NJ and sw CT. The big stuff was mostly ne PA and se CT... and not a good forecast for our area. The modeling hesitancy was useful in toning down expectations. I may add a CoCoRAHS mapping by midday. Today, as posted just above this, per SPC. My concerns are #1... leftover dying convective debris this morning limiting redevelopment potential for most of our forum this afternoon, and just the general lack of convergent flow. Some modeling diminishes the activity as it approaches aopur area while HRDPS is very interested in an active afternoon. I'm with less than ideal confidence, but leave it to local NWS and SPC discussions. The topic is here and hopefully w some reports of svr later this morning or afternoon.

This afternoon-evening: Does not look at all promising for much, as of this 40PM writing for our area, but still a chance of development. Cells appear too small, and too slow moving but maybe outflows will coalesce activity between 4 and 7PM? in CT/NJ? Seems like run of the mill so far. Tomorrow: am not convinced of much, but if there will be strong action, think its mostly NJ and e PA, especially where SPC has their enhanced risk now Pls see attached). Again, I'm uneasy because of the generally nw flow and a bit of a lack of surface convergence. Am getting a sense a line will be crossing NJ between 9A and 2PM, with not much left later on during peak heating. Just doesn't seem well meshed but staying with SPC as they write with more enthusiasm for something pretty good, mostly sw portion of the forum.

Saw the SPC upgrade to marginal risk today in our area. A bit surprised. 86/69 here in Wantage at 1240P.. A little uneasy how this unfolds. amazing 12z models have so little in northern PA at this time and many have very little in our forum area this afternoon. That's always a bit concerning for me... modeling 2-3 hours before go time look pretty pathetic today except ICON. We'll see and should know by 4P if anything decent will develop or spill over into our area.

Uncertain, but at least one other on our forum has been onto the potential for a couple of days and I agree. Instability in low level WAA (strong warm front) beneath a decent nw flow mid level jet should permit a couple of episodes of nw flow severe thunderstorms. The first, sometime late Wednesday or Wed night through PA and possibly western NJ (plus see SPC D3 issued early Monday morning). I didn't expect to see a Marginal risk this far east into NJ but it is possible and I defer to the SPC D3. The second episode sometime Thursday, when it appears the risk shifts into our area. Best axis Thursday? Suspect close to the warm front which should be se NYS/NJ/ne PA. It's late in the season for this this... so I express a little caution for this possible late summer convective event. 640A/24

Good Monday morning! I woke up to storm modeling thats seems too quiet for this afternoon... cells few and far between. I'll stay with the HRDPS and EC, inclusive of mid-upper 30s KI axis ne PA-SE NYS-CT into extreme nw NJ at 18z. That should allow clusters of strong storms to develop ne PA and se NYS between 1-3PM and track east southeast into CT, northern NJ n of I78 onto LI during the remainder of the afternoon and die out around 8 or 9 PM. So we saw what yesterday brought to near Lakewood NJ. I suspect the same along or north of I80. Not impossible to have isolated SVR but not expecting FF 4" production. PWAT will be near 1.7-1.8. CAPE up near 2000J but not much wind aloft. I did see the HRRR is spitting out a bit of hail in e PA and se NYS. Tuesday: Please read SPC D2 and NWS local office discussions as well your own. Today, it looks little more favorable to me for SVR cells drilling southeastward across our area between 2P and 9P with the 850 flow turning a little more westerly ahead of the cool front permitting less downsloping. CAPE, KI, WIND aloft all look favorable. In addition to the the damaging wind/hail potential, despite the faster southeast movement of the cells, should see 2-3" in an hour beneath a couple of the tracks of of the strongest cells. Most favored region is is probably se NYS/ne PA, NJ to near NYC.. 627A/24

No heat wave except vicinity CDW and POU which should continue today and possibly Tue. Typical summer. Saw interesting UKMET 2m temps for NYC Thu...modeled warmest NYC at 00z, instead of 18z., implying warm air advection but not much shower-thunderstorm activity. Hmmm?

No change in the outlook: Laura's remains probably track east across VA-Delmarva Saturday...still with a shift south or north possible. Moisture contributions from Laura and even a bit of Marco pushed ahead of Laura, should be infused into a frontal system across the NYC forum, possibly enhancing rainfall late Friday or Friday night. This far in advance... my concerns are tracking and a possible southward slippage of the guidance in the future model cycles. The primary center of the potentially dynamically reinvigorated remnant Laura will probably pass with its primary envelope of possible damaging wind gusts (40-50 kt) across VA-far northern NC or even the Delmarva Saturday. Guidance is cyclically consistent suggesting potentially 40-50 knot gusts in squalls south of the center (south of the forum area) Saturday. NO guarantee of those gusts. We'll see if that vigor and track holds. This also continues my concern for marine area just south of eventual center passage. For now... that should be south of our NYC forum coverage. It is only mentioned here, since there should be no surprise just south of the eventual track. Meanwhile the 00z/24 52 member NAEFS has shifted north a bit with its heavier rainfall. The models RRQ of the westerly upper level jet continues locked in over Maine and Nova Scotia. Model guidance suggests west-southwest flow in the 850-700mb layer ahead of Laura into the NY forum and so any boundaries in our area late Friday-Friday night could yield heavy rainfall. We'll see if that holds? Saturday's remnant Laura heavy rains-squalls might end up on the southern edge of the forum or south of the forum. So for now... am not favoring a direct eastward NJ remnant track but Laura's influence should be more so via the advance dynamics late Friday. Plenty of room for error and associated less impact. Guidance so far seems to be locked on a Louisiana - Arkansas to Ohio River heavy rain path then eastward, with uncertainties further north, including our NYC forum area. 607A/24

It's real early... some of the trends are little south of this mornings 00z/23 cycle but this could vary for the next few days. AND, we don't know the interaction with the southward moving cool front Fri-Sat which could be lit up with the additional infusion of trop moisture. Long ways to go. One thing I'm pretty sure of... am glad I'm not cruising south from NYC to HAT Friday or Saturday. I do think it's going to be rough for some of the marine areas (50kt gusts) south of wherever the track axis is. If an anticyclone doesn't build southward fast enough for a good nor'easter, then the action is rain, with south side strong squalls. The other aspect of the post trop transition is a possibility of intensification of the remnants as it crosses the Apps, per the upper level jet dynamics. So, lots to monitor to see what actually comes to pass as reliably predictable. 722/23

On todays rain... finally... and not quite done. Jackson Township NJ in northern Ocean County near I195...training and repeat episodes... have reposted 1.5 to 2.5" as in this attached weather underground report... 2 times as much as the digital radar estimate. Don't be fooled the next few days. Some gully washers coming this week, I think. 711P/23

Updated the CoCoRAHS map with 1.07" isolated in ne NJ yesterday afternoon. Will check back around 6 or 7P.

Monday-Tuesday: Issued a low confidence topic for more widespread heavy thunderstorms with potential for 2-3" max rainfalls (this was modeled for Sunday several days ago by the EC-but delayed for most of our area-except Ocean County- til Monday). KI is up, actually quite high for Monday morning so we may get a quick start Monday. PW up to near 1.8". Cannot rule out an isolated SVR Monday afternoon but the two day topic includes Tuesday's SPC slight risk. SPC sees more detailed model information than I, so despite my concerns about general nw 850MB flow which tends to be negative for convection holding together east of Appalachians, I've included Tuesday per SPC yesterdays D4 and todays D3. I could see best chance SVR early in the day but this hopefully will be improved as we draw closer. Plenty of wind in the sounding and enough CAPE/KI for sure, but don't quite like the 850 flow. 858A/23

Good Sunday morning all, A bit late for me... the Tropical post took a lot of time for me to hopefully construct with reasonable looks to failure. This is an interesting week in our NYC forum. Short heat wave has started in a few spots of non-marine influenced locations and expect it to continue into Tuesday, possibly squelched by showers/thunderstorm debris Monday and Tuesday. The GFS will probably have won the battle with the EC for Wednesday in terms of high temps precluding any potential extension of a heat wave into Thu or Fri. Today: No topic but note SPC has a marginal risk along the northern rim of our forum area (Ulster-Dutchess-Litchfield) so an isolated severe may impact those 3 counties late today or this eve?? I think we have a better chance for one or 2 clusters of 2-3" rains from thunderstorms in Ocean, possibly Monmouth and Mercer counties in central NJ this afternoon-evening. The rain free area today should be in our most populated area between I80-I84 (low KI), so that's the primary reason no topic. Monday-Tuesday: Issuing a low confidence topic for more widespread heavy thunderstorms with potential for 2-3" max rainfalls (this was modeled for Sunday several days ago by the EC). KI is up, actually quite high for Monday morning so we may get a quick start Monday. PW up to near 1.8". Cannot rule out an isolated SVR Monday afternoon but the two day topic includes Tuesday's SPC slight risk. They see more detailed model information than I, so despite my concerns about general nw 850MB flow, I've included Tuesday. I could see best chance SVR early in the day but this can improved as we draw closer. Plenty of wind in the sounding and enough CAPE/KI for sure, but don't quite like the 850 flow. Wednesday: Probably rain free. Thursday: PWAT and KI coming up pretty good in WAA with decent wind aloft. May have a nw flow svr event? Friday-Sunday as per tropic topic discussion. Wrapping up yesterday: Despite a low prob day... digital storm total near 1.25" was seen in nw NJ. I saw several weather underground reports between 0.5-0.9" and those are not included in this very early look at attached CoCoRAHS reports. The updated CoCoRAHS map had a 1.07" in ne NJ. Our future PWATS and forcing will are a little better than yesterday so my concerns for pockets of 2+" amounts in a few spots, many missing the storms. 851A/23

The NYC forum is likely (55-60% personal opinion) to be impacted by a portion of the remnants of recurving Laura. That means a 40-45% chance of a complete miss. Starting with moisture, not only from Laura but even if Marco peels off to the west into Texas, a bit of its moisture should precede Laura into the weather mix here Friday the 28th. There will be a notable RRQ of the upper level jet over the Canadian Maritimes that will assist drawing the moisture northeast, then east into the Mid Atlantic states and I think help keep Laura somewhat intact as a viable low pressure system with its jet dynamics. Track clusters are attached from the 00z/23 EPS/GEFS, tending to show a passage of transitioning Laura's center-what ever it is- somewhere between ALB-HAT. For now the favored passage appears to be somewhere between NJ and Virginia, per several days of modeling. There is improving NAEFS support for heavier QPF but not enough information yet to clearly define. Potential exists, if Laura tracks within 70 MI of NYC for 3+" rains and gusts to at least 35 kt in parts of coastal plain. This is quite a bit different than ISAIAS, passing over the Mississippi Valley. So this for now, should be considered mainly a rainfall contributor and potential marine hazard, IF and only IF the remnant definable center passes within 70 MI of NYC. So tracking is uncertain and what's left of Laura but worthy of discussion-monitoring and absolutely no consideration of ISAIAS impact severity. Let's see what's left and where it tracks. I just like the idea of contributing to rainfall in part of our area, for now. If everything becomes favorable, it could be a pretty good 6-12 hour summer nor'easter, or a squally southerly event -keeping in mind tracking is probably the biggest uncertainty at this topic issuance time. Have left this a broad timing impact, thinking its mostly later Friday-Saturday, but some guidance suggests it could slow down into early Sunday. Added 00z/23 GEFS ensemble QPF attempting to show the track across the Ohio Valley and then redeveloping mid Atlantic coast. And the 500MB ensembles coupled jet s structure from the 00z/23 GEFS. 655A/1055Z-23

Fairfield NJ shower in ne NJ at 115P. nice sized shower in ne PA.

First showers ne PA, approaching nw NJ at 1250P. Small pinheads so far.

Good Saturday morning all! Lot's of weather (potential) ahead... Thinking of starting two topics but may hold off til evening since I have family in, attention diverted. Don't like to overcommit too soon. First: Heat wave still appears on the horizon starting either today-Sunday in the non marine influenced below 500' foot elevation and lasts into Tuesday afternoon (barring thunderstorm cloud debris interruption). EC 850 has cooled 2-3C for Wed and so unlikely 90 but close (NAEFS not buying all this GFS/GGEM northerly flow cooling Wednesday), probably HOT Thursday and uncertain heat Friday due to approach of tropical remnants (more on this later). Today...a brief shower or thunderstorm possible CT even se NYS/extreme nw NJ later this afternoon-evening. Sunday-Monday: Clusters of 2-3" producing thunderstorms. Not posting as a topic yet. Sunday may at first be south of I78 in NJ, but could shift up into NYS/CT in the evening per EC KI development. Plenty of CAPE. PWAT~1.7. Not enough to be sure of 4" total and so will only start as topic as a conversation centered grouping of reports. Tuesday: SPC has a slight risk for our area with the approaching cool front. Wind fields good, just a little concerned mostly nw 850 wind field. However, I can be convinced by further discussions-modeling. Wednesday: A bit cooler... interesting nw flow event may occur across PA/s NJ... bigger KI pooling. Thursday: Back to heat and big storms may occur late day? What I messaged Wx watcher this morning on tropics: Am holding off til sometime this afternoon-evening on a tropic starter for NY forum. NAEFS is not defined for the NE, but I think recurvature will result in Laura capturing some of Marco's moisture and sweep east, passing somewhere between ORF-BTV with potential for a a PRE prior to the late 28th/29th passage, this per the nice 250MB jet over Nova Scotia, and the likelihood of a strong front settling southward into the NY forum Friday. IFFF that happens, not only PRE but also a gusty nor'easter, or if north of us, a gusty southwester. Need NAEFS to shift north for Fri-Sat and be more defined with an axis--all in the GGEM court now since I think the GEFS/EPS are hinting at this in their 850 wind and qpf modeling. 657A/22

No new topic(s) yet... Sundays risk for cluster 2-3" thunderstorms may be shifting to Monday per EC KI trends but will revisit that and the possible tropical connection for the 28th-29th. Want to see a little more NAEFS qpf axis etc. Definite worthy of monitoring the models all week. 538P/21

Hi, se NYS is much larger for the NYC former than what you might think...here is what I was given when I first asked this question a few months ago. I seldom mention Pike County PA in summer. Hope this helps.

Good Friday morning all, No new topics. Heat: EC op is quite warm versus GFS/GGEM/UK Wed and even Thu. 850MB is basically showing ~16C-17C at 12z daily beginning Saturday forward continuing through Wed and 20-21C Thu-Fri. That suggests to me a heat wave begins Saturday or Sunday for our non marine influenced and less than 500'MSL portions of sw CT, se NYS, NJ, lasting into Tuesday. Wednesday shows great modeling uncertainty with the 00z/21 GFS MEX MOS possibly 11 degrees too cool?? Lots of bust potential on temps Wednesday. Then, a good chance 90+ Thu and possibly Fri with the HI near 100 on one of those days. Tropic related: 00z/21 EC op is also showing tropical moisture and the TD13 850 vort feeding us Friday the 28th as modeled PWAT increases to ~2." TD13 850MB vort could end up a lot further south but for now, that vort center seems to assist the EC QPF development in the northeast Friday. Short term: Might be a couple of light showers early Saturday se NYS/NJ as gentle WAA develops, and a slightly better chance of a late afternoon shower or thunderstorm there. Sunday: modeling has diminished interest. However, the afternoon still has the makings for a few pockets of 2-3" thunderstorm clusters, probably not FF/probably not SVR ,but interruptive for some of us, with PWAT near 1.7", decent CAPE, KI and SBLI. Most favored parts of our area are NJ/SE NYS and CT. Tuesdays (25th) trough or cfp could be interesting for many of us. ? Next Wed-Thu-Fri: Lots to monitor until models draw consensus. KI eventually may rise to 40 for a time on one of these days, along a possible eventual tropical moisture infusion?? 740A/21

Lots of model differences tropics to se Canada the next week. Since I had a sneak broad peek at 850 temps this coming week... am not straying from the 810A post. Need to figure out if the 12z/20 EC is loner on big heat this week... has 21C 850MB T at NYC 12z Thu. I see the UK/GGEM/GFS want to try to cool it down mid week as does the 12z/20 GEFS. EC op says no go but have not looked at EPS nor high res EC. For me, staying on course with the EC for now but can see it/and I may need to adjust with a faster CFP Wed or Thu? Just don't know. .

Good Thursday morning to all, Refreshingly cool mornings. Been fun. Back to heat soon... "could" be 6 day heat wave beginning Saturday parts of ne NJ, lower Hud Valley, interior w CT portions of our forum. Marginal near 90F temps this weekend and interruptions by thunderstorms are possible Sunday-Tuesday, Thursday. Do think that ~95F heat likely for a day or so, probably restricted to next Wednesday or Thursday. HI near 100 on a couple of days, for now again, next Wed or Thu. Convection: still small chancey WAA convection Friday night-Saturday, mainly NJ. Potential Topic is Sunday: Combination of EC modeled CAPE over 2000J, KI well up in the 30s, PWAT near 1.8", 15-25KT 700MB westerly flow, an approaching weakening 500MB short wave having lifted newd from the lower Miss Valley and something I missed yesterday, is an unexpectedly strong upper wind field; should allow for strong thunderstorms (a couple of episodes possible) Noon-10PM. Best chance for pockets 2-3" of gusty storms seems to initially be NJ, but may shift northward to se NYS-CT late in the day-evening. Also, I can see isolated SVR and an eventual marginal risk by SPC down here in the NYC forum. No topic at this time for two reasons: Not sure we can squeeze 4" in 1 or 2 locations-for now probably not, and severe is not a lock since wind fields marginal. Still, am pretty sure golf and other outdoor activity will be interrupted by Tstorms sometime during the afternoon. Monday: a bit drier dew points but a surface trough and still sizable 1500+J CAPE and KI decent, should allow for isolated or scattered gusty thunderstorms. Tuesday: I think conditions may be a bit more favorable for scattered afternoon thunderstorms but as of now...Sunday afternoon-evening is when I think the most important risk day, prior to the probable Thursday ish CFP which has less CAPE but the highest KI ribbon of the week, in addition to probably the hottest airmass of the week. A note: Lower dew points on Wednesday the 26th along with warmer 500MB temps should preclude thunder from happening in our NYC forum area on Wednesday. Just hot. Finally: the tropics. Not posting to the tropic page since they have it covered and am only looking on possible impacts here. Not guaranteed, since tracking is part of the problem, that two tropical systems will affect the Gulf Coast next week (Laura could still miss east of the Gulf Coast). For our area, beginning Friday the 28th onward, I could see some sort of impact here. For now lets it keep it to some moisture since the general flow across the northern USA is westerly tending to shunt systems east or east northeast at our threat latitude (north of 35N). The upper level jet across NNE/Nova Scotia becomes favorable (RRQ). Long WAYS to go on this but it's not the same as ISAIAS. As of now, there is a much greater chance for a miss to the southeast of us, than the more favored trough-ridge pattern of the August 4. 810A/20

saw them... it may be that PHI-EM are doing storm survey right now. You'll probably know sooner than I, but I doubt if anything will officially pot on this for a little while, pending data assessment. If they do go with a TOR..will update the graphic when I get a chance. Thanks and Later, Walt

Added unexpected svr reports from this morning.

Just checked LGA was 95 on Sep 3, 1993. So until someone says I have it wrong, I'll go w EWR last 100 on Sep 3. Probably moot to discuss much more than what we have, except we all know...it's warmer these recent decades.