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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    More TC after Zeta... (ETA seems likely early Nov down near FL-Bahamas). Zeta remnants involved here, though heaviest from Zeta itself should be s NJ/Delmarva. Wind 50 MPH for e LI Friday but indirectly Zeta in my opinion and a decent 850 LOW passes s of LI. Topic already started.
  2. wdrag
    Considering a NYC forum topic for Thu-Sat 1-3" rain, maybe a touch of snow n and nw fringe but for me, it's a little early to have confidence of more than 2" of rain in our forum and/or 1" of snow high terrain northwest, IF snow were to occur. Timing-merger of the northern and southern streams late this week is imo, pretty uncertain, with vastly different storm tracking-precip shields. No action on my part for a topic, prior to 6PM tonight at the earliest. Just need a little more consensus.
  3. wdrag
    Still monitoring 26th-27th ne of the Bahamas to near Bermuda for something subtropical or tropical-small, and not necessarily long lived. NHC not showing anything of interest.
  4. wdrag

    There seems to be a problem thread on the TROPICS...hackers..top. Needs delete and protections in our group.  Thanks.  Walt 

  5. wdrag
    Per 12z/24 modeling... looking pretty good and meshing more closely to previous versions of the ICON ,if an MSY-MOB vicinity landfall indeed occurs. I see TWO is near 100% prob formation.
  6. wdrag
    CFP ~1130A in Wantage NJ. Dewpoint down 11F in 1 hr (51).
  7. wdrag
    Is it me or is the GFS parallel fraught with the sometimes NAM meso modeling steroids as the model gets extended in time and buys too heavy into the short waves.?? I'm watching this GFS-P closely in the eastern USA as well as the ICON in the Atlantic tropics. For those that have been monitoring... my initial thought is the GFS-P seems too strong after 4 or 5 days... and the ICON is nice to have but not necessarily any better than any other global model. Any thoughts?
  8. wdrag
    For what it's worth... Atlantic sea state as analyzed by NOAA OPC at 6z/24 (this morning). 9+ feet had extended back to the Bahamas yesterday. Swells of 6-7 feet are occurring along the LI Atlantic coast.
  9. wdrag
    Long ways to go... model confusion on which, or if even two small storms this coming week. GMEX looking more warm core in this mornings Cyclone Phase diagram but selecting a starting point is important. EPS is less emphatic for the Central Gulf Coast. So I do not know but I think it's good to present the broad range of possibilities. If you check the00z/24 EC op... you'd be concerned about just off there se coast of the USA. May add another graphic by 806AM.
  10. wdrag
    2c worth... based on 12z/23 models and not necessarily looking at this correctly.. ICON is interesting. What is more interesting about the ICON is that Phase Diagram is opting turning to cold core over the central GMEX (attached). I think between the 25th and the 26th,,, whatever happens has to meander north to near FL where there seems to be more favorable SST, moisture, and possibly upper air pattern. Still looks like a small tight system but a couple of the hurricane models are offering 64kt at 925MB approaching or passing close to FL. I'm definitely interested in the phase diagrams-utility. For now the NAEFS suggests looking e and ne of FL but I see the Euro/ICON etc look more favorably upon central GMEX.
  11. wdrag
    .02 now at Wantage NJ from off and on drizzle this morning. Sun dimly visible as of 834A.
  12. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 0.01" mist-drizzle here this morning. Looks to me like mist at times here through Saturday morning...and clouds predominant through Wednesday with best chance for Partly-Mostly Sunny sky Sunday morning-midday. As for 1-3" rains early next week.... modeling quite uncertain so am less confident than yesterday, though the option is there.
  13. wdrag
    Zeta: later than sooner? Less clear to me on Bahamas tropical event per perusal 00z/23 multi model guidance. Invest has occurred and some intensity guidance goes for a TS but not many models and the TC Phase diagram is less likely, initially ~25th. Some guidance waits til the 27th in GMEX, and as per prior posts by others, the first week of Nov. I will say the NAEFS has something going northeast past Bermuda and i can see it vaguely in GFS/EC PWAT guidance for the 25th-26th FL east coast, east northeast or northeast from there. Many words not offering confidence on when-how-where Zeta evolves. Relying on NHC products. Have a good day.
  14. wdrag
    Mostly cloudy and mild through Saturday with drizzle fog overnights-mornings, again next Monday-Wednesday with periods of rain with potential 1-3" of rain IF repeat episodes of rain overlap---that is an unknown but pattern favors a quasi stationary boundary around here early next week as I view the model guidance along with pretty high PWAT of 1.5" or greater. In the meantime: Epsilon has made a name for itself and we should see pretty good swell along our Atlantic shores Friday, 6-7'.
  15. wdrag
    Zeta: ? My guess this has a 30-50% chance of forming... still warm sst. Minor (marghginal TS) event somewhere e coast Fl newd to near or west of Bermuda. Here's a modeling image. Several operational models show tight shallow warm core. Includes UK, RGEM, GGEM GFS, ICON, NAEFS implied (no JMA/EC). My guess it's a junk storm as some might call it, except if you're in it's marine path. Am monitoring models... definitely not what the GFS was calling for 10 days ago but something can yet emerge.
  16. wdrag
    Possible w phase of northern stream. Going to be a problem next 5 days at least
  17. wdrag
    Ships was highest early but consensus and experience probably tempered. Global models have been looking like a beast Fri-Sat. Have seen 95 KT at 850mb forecast. So yes all models way too low and way too slow. Walt 434pm
  18. wdrag
    Already 30+ foot seas north and east of center and by Friday. I expect this to increase (possibly 40 foot significant wave height) with EC gradient generated max WH at least 45 ft near the center and this could be conservative. Here's a picture of OPC analyzed wave heights at 8AM this morning based on ship/buoy reports etc.
  19. wdrag
    Epsilon impact here: First 14 second swells from Epsilon should be noticed tomorrow...building very slowly into Friday with a slightly shorter period then. Max WH modeled by the EC is 10 feet along our NYC forum Atlantic shore... that being the rarity...most of these long period swells ~ 6 - 7 feet.
  20. wdrag
    I've added this as NEW on the 06z/GEFS500MB run...notice several members closed circulation down near FL. There we zero members like this on the 00z/21 cycle. We'll see if the trend continues. I can't expand any further on this potential until this evening, at the earliest.
  21. wdrag
    A pretty good storm going now and won't be surprised at further intensification beyond 80KT. Still has surface SST's of 26C enroute at times through the 24th. Following NHC, RAL, AM WX contributions, as well as GEFS probabilistic guidance and the NWW3 operational guidance.
  22. wdrag
    Noticed that as well, but beyond 240 hours... I cant be very confident... but yes, GEFS has some members trying for a tropical event. For now, I want to be sure the 00z/21 models and tropical phase diagrams are wrong about the Bahamas vicinity event of the 25th-26th.
  23. wdrag
    Zeta: ??? Good Wednesday morning all w interest between FL-Bermuda 25th-27th. I saw the NHC dropped tropical potential overnight but 00z-06z/21 operational modeling suggests (multi models) that a shallow warm core tropical circulation will develop by the 25th vicinity-Cuba- east coast FL and head northeast or east-northeast. It probably won't be too deep vertically but I'm expecting something that may need to be named a small TS between the 25th-27th. I can easily be wrong, so no promises. I will admit I'm wrong as soon as modeling gives it up (again). 655A/21
  24. wdrag
    Good points on lapse rates-fuel. UKMET has been drilling this to the 940s for many cycles. That's one reason for the post. Going to be an impressive marine event.
  25. wdrag
    Made me smile... too early I think for snow. Not impossible for high terrain ice in the Catskills but that would be a really really really long shot, at this point.
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