jaxjagman

Sorry to hear of the no trip,i know you look forward to this every year :( Its been a suck year so far for us here as well.Kids out of school(tho i think some kids might be happy about that..lol)No real graduation this year. My wife also is going through breast cancer and doing chemo right now,not a great time for this with the CV :( Just saying also,its never a good time for breast cancer either way.Praying we make it through this anyways

APEC

Looks like NINA rang the door bell and someone let her in

Tropical genesis is hard to predict without a storm,it's just a time frame to watch right now possibly

3.4 is falling fast .The MJO by the Euro is going to get strong into P8 and with possible KW and RW towards the end of the month,this should continue to pound the cold subsurface to the surface east of the IDL.Not sure i agree with the new experimental JAMSTEC with the oceans into summer.If its right tho towards fall we would be looking at a -PDO and also the NA/Tripole would really cool down into into fall so you'd have a +NOA into winter more likely,maybe some help with the EPO but JAMSTEC looks like crap next winter right now,

JAMSTEC isn't that excited with a Nina

Yeah its a suck time to do anything

Ninas knocking on the door

Best chance of tropical genesis into the GOM would seemingly be more into June.Least today there could be a Kelvin Wave moving into by some models along with the CFS across the Yucatan,this certainly would be a time frame to watch,BUT 3-4 weeks out is beyond trustworthy right now

Could get some good thunderstorms next weekend somewhere in the Valley, if the Euro is right as the boundary slips southward.Not very exciting looking right now but CIPS does show a risk as well.

Upwelling seemingly has done a job.Long range models are hinting at another KW passing across the IDL after the Mid month .Could be some tropical genesis into the GOM afterwards towards June or just into if its correct

NMME'S fall into winter

Ouch

No doubt about Nashville.Last i heard they still have thousands without power plus some won't have it back for a week

Starting to see a few wind damage reports URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Nashville TN 935 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020 TNZ005>008-023>028-057-059-050500- /O.NEW.KOHX.HW.W.0001.200505T0235Z-200505T0500Z/ Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Houston-Humphreys-Dickson- Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Hickman-Williamson- Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield, Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Waverly, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Dickson, Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Centerville, Franklin, and Brentwood 935 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT... * WHAT...Wind gusts up to 60 mph * WHERE...Portions of Middle Tennessee. * WHEN...Until midnight CDT tonight. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

Using my Verizon2Go,our Comcast went out and still is out since my last post.Lots of trees down and power outage,luckily we still have power but internet is extremely slow and hard to use This was a crazy vid tho during the storm

NIA reported gust to 71MPH

113000 folks without power in Davidson Co

Internet finally came on,lots of wind damage on Concord Rd by my house with trees down some small hail

Wind gust around Ashland City should be over 80mph

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A long-lived and fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms over western Tennessee will track eastward across the watch area this afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds along the leading edge of the storms is the primary threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west southwest of Nashville TN to 30 miles south southeast of Crossville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are likely this afternoon over Kentucky and Tennessee. Other strong to severe storms are possible farther east extending from West Virginia to the Delmarva, across the northern and central High Plains, and over a small portion of west-central Texas. ...KY/TN area... Updates to this outlook include expanding the 30% wind probabilities east ahead of the ongoing MCS, and expanding the 15 and 5% farther southeast toward northern AL. While a capping inversion may limit the southern threat areas, the deep cold pool associated with this system may allow for a threat farther southeast than expected. The greatest threat will continue to be over the Enhanced Risk area, closer to the instability axis and ahead of the apex of the bow.