Powerball

One concern I did have about this event was moisture return, but dewpoints are already ~60°F into Iowa. That should only go up further aa the LLJ strengthens and the trough amplifies...

It's where the models are picking up strong rotation as the cells move through.

I called it back on Sunday. A lot of similarities to the severe weather setup tonight with this past Saturday/Sunday. At least this time around, the heightened threat level is being a lot more hyped earlier. Perhaps this will convince more people to be more dilligent about monitoring the weather conditions this evening.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC085-231-397-102330- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0274.211210T2243Z-211210T2330Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 443 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Rockwall County in north central Texas... Central Hunt County in north central Texas... Southeastern Collin County in north central Texas... * Until 530 PM CST. * At 443 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fate, or near Rockwall, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Wylie, Rockwall, Greenville, Commerce, Royse City, Fate, Farmersville, Wolfe City, Caddo Mills, Celeste, Campbell, Mobile City, Lavon, McLendon-Chisholm, Nevada, Josephine and Neylandville. This includes Interstate 30 between mile markers 68 and 100. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3284 9643 3300 9652 3338 9610 3341 9586 3324 9586 TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 227DEG 43KT 3298 9640 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ Gordon

Well alrighty then... Mesoscale Discussion 1981 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0420 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Areas affected...Northeast Texas...far southeast Oklahoma...and far southwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 102220Z - 102345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are possible across portions of the Arklatex. DISCUSSION...High based showers have developed along a dryline which has recently passed through Dallas. These showers are now moving into a more moisture rich airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This is yielding MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg beneath strong mid-level flow and effective shear in excess of 60 knots. Therefore, further intensification of these showers are possible. The threat will likely remain isolated, but the environment is quite favorable for supercells with an initial large hail threat with an increasing tornado threat with eastward extent. The isolated nature of any storm development may preclude the need for a watch, but if storm intensity is great enough or if more storms develop, a watch may be needed. ..Bentley/Grams.. 12/10/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33279692 34019584 34579457 34189338 33319365 32189491 31809694 31979759 33279692

Clown map

Knowing Detroit, it's going to be grungy regardless of the temp.

^^^Of course, it works out for places like Detroit, because strong negative tilt cutters would more likely end up being rainers for them.

fyp.

Off to a rocking start... (BTW, record high is in the upper 80s).

Why don't you have a Met tag? I remember you going to school for that. (serious question)

DFW ended up +1.3*F above average for November.

I mean, we had snow-on-snow in *Texas* this past February. So nothing surprises me any more, lol...

Although it was a roller coaster month and much cooler than October, November's still on track to be above average here in DFW.In fact, highs for the next 2 days to end the month will be 10+ degrees above average.

If I remember correctly, 2017 was the year that Detroit saw the Christmas snowstorm.

Not really getting strong wind gusts, but pretty erratic wind shifting.

Mesoscale Discussion 1937 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021 Areas affected...parts of north Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 102306Z - 110100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging hail, strong gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are expected to affect parts of north Texas this evening. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front from central OK into northwest TX, with a dryline from near Wichita Falls extending southwestward toward San Angelo. While dewpoints are only in the 55-60 F range, temperatures aloft are quite cold which is maximizing instability. A 21Z sounding from OUN showed 2000 J/kg MUCAPE, despite little heating today. Visible imagery shows towering CU near the cold front/dryline intersection approaching the Wichita Falls area. One or more supercells may eventually form out of this area, with storms forecast to progress east/southeastward this evening. Lengthening hodographs as well as steep lapse rates aloft with 500 mb temperatures near -17 C suggest damaging hail will be possible as storms move east/southeast along and south of the Red River. A brief tornado may occur as well, as low-level shear remains favorable prior to the cold front passing. However, low-level winds are forecast to rapidly veer this evening. ..Jewell/Edwards.. 11/10/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34289674 34109555 33929504 33529492 33029494 32659544 32429606 32389696 32479793 32579891 32849899 33269877 33689878 34259895 34499858 34429769 34289674

If anything, the subsidence behind this initial line might help to keep the cells later this evening discrete longer.

Lightning's showing up now over DFW, hearing thunder here.

Looking at the clouds, you can actually see the updrafts trying their damndest to break through the cap as the initial line of showers moves through and instability/moisture advection picks up. There's some lightning strikes showing up within it in OK I see...

CAMs are showing mixed signals at best for DFW. Some of them are, in fact, duds. So highly conditional setup here, but yeah, could be an active evening up in Central/Southern OK for sure. EDIT: It's crazy that we're seeing a lot more severe weather threats/events this fall than we saw during the entirety of our actual severe weather season.

It seems October 2021 will tie (with 1988) for the 4th warmest on record for Detroit.

Looks like Detroit might be on track for a top 5 warmest October on record, and possibly the warmest October it's seen in nearly 100 years. Current departure is 60.1*F, and it would need to stay above 59.5*F to make the top 5. Even down here, we're looking at a top 10 warmest October on record.

Apparently, we had a rogue t'storm come through a little while ago (I was asleep).It doesn't seem to have been severe though.