Powerball

Oh, and the latest freeze on record for DFW is 4/13/1997. So statistically, we should be home free from any more freezes.

Certainly part of the reason we've had a warm spring (relative to average) and a more active severe weather season so far. Since 3/25, we've only had 1 day below 70*F, and that day was 69*F. Also, last freeze was on 3/11 (spot on with average).

FWIW, 94*F is just the convective temperature right now. As the airmass is modified throughout the day at different levels in the atmosphere, the convective temperature can increase or decrease. In today's case, the height falls / cooling mid-levels expected, steady advection of low-level moisture keeping dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s and a shortwave that will enhance the forcing of updrafts should all help to lower the convective temps and erode the cap more efficiently than yesterday.

000 FXUS64 KOUN 120844 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 344 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Severe Weather: A highly conditional risk for severe weather exists to the east of the dryline this afternoon, with uncertainty higher than normal regarding storm initiation. Much of the uncertainty is related to the degree of capping as well as the degree of subsidence that will be over our area in the wake of a southern stream wave clearly evident on water vapor imagery currently ejecting out of northern Mexico. The timing and positioning of the wave will be such that much of our area will be too far north and west to benefit from any lift associated with the wave and will instead be in the subsident region of the wave during peak heating this afternoon. With the parent upper trough still well to our west across the Rockies we do not expect much in the way of broader large scale ascent or mid-level cooling to help initiate storms. It will therefore be mainly up to the dryline circulation as our main forcing mechanism for convective initiation this afternoon. Models have been fairly consistent in their lack of support for convective initiation across much of the area (outside of the ECM model) for days now, which does not add confidence we will see much activity at all this afternoon. However, models are not infallible (see yesterday`s convection across southeast OK) and forecast soundings show little to no CIN remaining along the dryline by 21z this afternoon. It would not take much more than some localized backing/convergence along the dryline to lead to initiation. So while we are currently not expecting widespread coverage of storms, it is entirely possible we see one or two thunderstorms along the dryline by late this afternoon. Perhaps the most likely scenario will be thunderstorms developing and moving into our area out of north Texas on the northern periphery of the southern stream wave, with little to no activity developing across portions of north-central Oklahoma.

000 FXUS64 KTSA 120856 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 356 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... The prospects for severe storms forming to the west along the dryline late this afternoon and migrating into our area this evening appear low due to subsidence behind the subtropical wavementioned above. .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Lingering storms with the wave this evening will be moving out early, and most of the night is then likely to be quiet.

Nice write up for tomorrow by FWD... 000 FXUS64 KFWD 112005 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 305 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 ...New Long Term... .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday through Monday/ While the longwave upper level trough will remain across the Intermountain West Tuesday before ejecting out in the plains Wednesday, the primary feature of interest to us is a strong shortwave trough currently near Baja that will rotate around the longwave and through Texas on Tuesday. It is rather unusual to be able to spot and track these shortwave disturbances so clearly on water vapor this time of the year, but being able to do so in the current data and in model potential vorticity forecast raises the confidence that strong forcing will spread over North and Central Texas Tuesday afternoon. Lift is just one of three important ingredients for convection. The second ingredient is moisture, and after a couple days of strong return flow off of the Gulf, we certainly have enough of that in place. The final ingredient is instability, and it`s the linchpin in this forecast. There will be instability below an inversion or cap, but that cap means the atmosphere is effectively stable and thus the 3rd ingredient is missing...that is unless the stable layer/cap can be eroded. There are a few ways to break a cap, one through heating and moistening of the surface airmass which is easy to predict and anticipate. The other is through dynamic lift, much harder for forecasters and computer models alike to predict. This explains why there are a variety of forecast solutions - ranging from widespread convection erupting over the region during the afternoon to nothing happening at all. (The models just don`t know how much of the cap to erode.) For the forecast I am leaning toward the more convectively active forecast solutions. The reason for this is that lifting of a cap is easier when the lapse rates above the cap are nearly dry adiabatic, which they will be tomorrow. This means that the lift tomorrow isn`t spent lifting/modifying a thermodynamically stable mid level. Instead the lift more effectively reaches down to the level of the capping inversion and cools that layer...allowing the very unstable air residing in the lowest part of the atmosphere to be realized in the form of convection. Given the strength of the forcing/lift and its timing, our storms may not wait for peak heating and may not initially form on the dryline like in our usual spring time severe weather events. Storms could form as early as 1 or 2 pm. Increasing wind fields ahead of the approaching shortwave trough will result in organized wind shear, meaning that once storms develop they will be capable of becoming supercells and producing a variety of severe weather. Very large hail (baseball or larger) is the primary threat, but damaging winds and tornadoes are also possible. Storms will rapidly move east and northeast through the afternoon and early evening hours. As the forcing from the shortwave trough moves out of the region during the evening hours we should see activity track east and the region may be in a lull for a few hours Tuesday night. An arriving cold front may spark up some additional showers and storms early Wednesday morning mainly across East and Central Texas. Severe weather is possible with this activity too, but the more linear storm mode and diminishing wind shear and instability suggest it`s a lower end threat.

It's really struggling. EDIT: "The little storm that could...I mean couldn't"

Cell's trying to get going just SW of Denton, but it's really struggling.

Starting to see some agitation in the CU field west of Fort Worth and Denton

Mesoscale Discussion 0447 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Areas affected...portions of southeast Oklahoma and extreme northeast Texas into western and central Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 111934Z - 112130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storm development is likely over the next few hours. Scattered damaging gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes are all likely, and a strong tornado or two is also possible. A Tornado Watch issuance will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...An elongated 1006 mb surface low continues to meander east across northern Texas, with the triple point situated along the Red River near GLE, and a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone draped along a line roughly from ADM to FSM per latest surface observations. A deepening cumulus field has already become established across eastern OK into northeast TX and western AR. The approach of a modest 500 mb vort max over the Southern Plains combined with adequate diurnal heating should foster an increase in thunderstorm development near the triple point and along the quasi-stationary baroclinic zone over the next few hours. The last few deterministic HRRR and Warn-on-Forecast ensemble runs suggest that storms may become established as early as 20Z. 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading mid 60s F surface dewpoints are contributing to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, with MLCINH continuing to erode with time. Modest veering/strengthening of the surface-700 mb flow yields modestly curved hodographs (via SRX and LZK VAD profilers), with supercell structures likely given the initial discrete storm mode expected. Damaging gusts and large hail may accompany any storm that can mature, and 2+ inch hail may also accompany the longer-lived robust supercells given the steep mid-level lapse rates. While the low-level jet continues to weaken and shift eastward towards the MS River, enough low-level directional shear should promote low-level rotation and tornado potential with the more persistent supercells. If supercells can remain discrete while propagating eastward into AR (closer to the low-level jet axis), a strong tornado or two may also occur. A Tornado Watch will be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 04/11/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33529699 34749558 35559441 35719322 35609207 35189163 34759162 33939222 33479328 33189416 33149512 33169582 33529699

Tornado Watch coming soon for SE Oklahoma, SW Arkansas and NETexas...

Models have consistently shown a weak MCV tracking across East Central TX and Western LA during peak heating tomorrow, which (if legit) should help to trigger fairly extensive activity down there. That said, it might it up leaving somewhat of a "lull" in the coverage of activity to the north of it and to the south of the areas closer to the main trough in KS / IA / NE / MO.

Will have to keep an eye on the CU field moving SE out of Denton County up to the Red River. That's where I would expect something, if anything, to pop up.

HRRR does have an Inverted-V sounding for later this afternoon over DFW. Will have to watch for downburst winds if/when anything develops.

An interesting (albeit messy) setup indeed. What's intriguing to me is that those early storms suggests the cap along the dry line might not be all that strong as convective temps are hit this afternoon. The early convection might have also help with laying out some outflow boundaries as a trigger later today. Another thing to note is the area currently under the enhanced risk is socked in low clouds, while pretty decent heating has commenced down here in the Metroplex.

18z GFS is definitely far more reasonable in the long range.

Northward extent is in question, but in general, it seems that will be the big day right now.

Sorry to say, I can confirm your aunt's sister is grossly exaggerating the extent of the warm season here, lol. As the last 2 winters prove, Dallas in particular can get pretty cold at times in the Winter with snow/ice events. It doesn't stick around long and it's not always of consequences, but it does happen. Also, most of the trees do in fact change colors by mid-November before going bare like up north from December to March. The September - November and March - May are actually pretty pleasant like a Summer up there, as it's not too humid yet and temps are only in the 70s and 80s.

Right. We get 4 seasons in most of the Sumbelt north of say a Corpus Christi - Tampa/Orlando line. It's just that the Spring/Fall are extended and the Winter is extremely short.

The snow and even the cold isn't so bad in moderation. It's the fact that it sticks around forever and the constant overcast skies (granted, west of the Great Lakes out towards Chicago and Minneapolis, it's not *AS* cloudy) that gets to you. It often catches transplants from the sunbelt who aren't familiar with "lake effect" off guard. This is especially true if you suffer from SAD.