Powerball

Nice write up for tomorrow by FWD... 000 FXUS64 KFWD 112005 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 305 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 ...New Long Term... .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday through Monday/ While the longwave upper level trough will remain across the Intermountain West Tuesday before ejecting out in the plains Wednesday, the primary feature of interest to us is a strong shortwave trough currently near Baja that will rotate around the longwave and through Texas on Tuesday. It is rather unusual to be able to spot and track these shortwave disturbances so clearly on water vapor this time of the year, but being able to do so in the current data and in model potential vorticity forecast raises the confidence that strong forcing will spread over North and Central Texas Tuesday afternoon. Lift is just one of three important ingredients for convection. The second ingredient is moisture, and after a couple days of strong return flow off of the Gulf, we certainly have enough of that in place. The final ingredient is instability, and it`s the linchpin in this forecast. There will be instability below an inversion or cap, but that cap means the atmosphere is effectively stable and thus the 3rd ingredient is missing...that is unless the stable layer/cap can be eroded. There are a few ways to break a cap, one through heating and moistening of the surface airmass which is easy to predict and anticipate. The other is through dynamic lift, much harder for forecasters and computer models alike to predict. This explains why there are a variety of forecast solutions - ranging from widespread convection erupting over the region during the afternoon to nothing happening at all. (The models just don`t know how much of the cap to erode.) For the forecast I am leaning toward the more convectively active forecast solutions. The reason for this is that lifting of a cap is easier when the lapse rates above the cap are nearly dry adiabatic, which they will be tomorrow. This means that the lift tomorrow isn`t spent lifting/modifying a thermodynamically stable mid level. Instead the lift more effectively reaches down to the level of the capping inversion and cools that layer...allowing the very unstable air residing in the lowest part of the atmosphere to be realized in the form of convection. Given the strength of the forcing/lift and its timing, our storms may not wait for peak heating and may not initially form on the dryline like in our usual spring time severe weather events. Storms could form as early as 1 or 2 pm. Increasing wind fields ahead of the approaching shortwave trough will result in organized wind shear, meaning that once storms develop they will be capable of becoming supercells and producing a variety of severe weather. Very large hail (baseball or larger) is the primary threat, but damaging winds and tornadoes are also possible. Storms will rapidly move east and northeast through the afternoon and early evening hours. As the forcing from the shortwave trough moves out of the region during the evening hours we should see activity track east and the region may be in a lull for a few hours Tuesday night. An arriving cold front may spark up some additional showers and storms early Wednesday morning mainly across East and Central Texas. Severe weather is possible with this activity too, but the more linear storm mode and diminishing wind shear and instability suggest it`s a lower end threat.

It's really struggling. EDIT: "The little storm that could...I mean couldn't"

Cell's trying to get going just SW of Denton, but it's really struggling.

Starting to see some agitation in the CU field west of Fort Worth and Denton

Mesoscale Discussion 0447 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Areas affected...portions of southeast Oklahoma and extreme northeast Texas into western and central Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 111934Z - 112130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storm development is likely over the next few hours. Scattered damaging gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes are all likely, and a strong tornado or two is also possible. A Tornado Watch issuance will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...An elongated 1006 mb surface low continues to meander east across northern Texas, with the triple point situated along the Red River near GLE, and a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone draped along a line roughly from ADM to FSM per latest surface observations. A deepening cumulus field has already become established across eastern OK into northeast TX and western AR. The approach of a modest 500 mb vort max over the Southern Plains combined with adequate diurnal heating should foster an increase in thunderstorm development near the triple point and along the quasi-stationary baroclinic zone over the next few hours. The last few deterministic HRRR and Warn-on-Forecast ensemble runs suggest that storms may become established as early as 20Z. 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading mid 60s F surface dewpoints are contributing to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, with MLCINH continuing to erode with time. Modest veering/strengthening of the surface-700 mb flow yields modestly curved hodographs (via SRX and LZK VAD profilers), with supercell structures likely given the initial discrete storm mode expected. Damaging gusts and large hail may accompany any storm that can mature, and 2+ inch hail may also accompany the longer-lived robust supercells given the steep mid-level lapse rates. While the low-level jet continues to weaken and shift eastward towards the MS River, enough low-level directional shear should promote low-level rotation and tornado potential with the more persistent supercells. If supercells can remain discrete while propagating eastward into AR (closer to the low-level jet axis), a strong tornado or two may also occur. A Tornado Watch will be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 04/11/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33529699 34749558 35559441 35719322 35609207 35189163 34759162 33939222 33479328 33189416 33149512 33169582 33529699

Tornado Watch coming soon for SE Oklahoma, SW Arkansas and NETexas...

Models have consistently shown a weak MCV tracking across East Central TX and Western LA during peak heating tomorrow, which (if legit) should help to trigger fairly extensive activity down there. That said, it might it up leaving somewhat of a "lull" in the coverage of activity to the north of it and to the south of the areas closer to the main trough in KS / IA / NE / MO.

Will have to keep an eye on the CU field moving SE out of Denton County up to the Red River. That's where I would expect something, if anything, to pop up.

HRRR does have an Inverted-V sounding for later this afternoon over DFW. Will have to watch for downburst winds if/when anything develops.

An interesting (albeit messy) setup indeed. What's intriguing to me is that those early storms suggests the cap along the dry line might not be all that strong as convective temps are hit this afternoon. The early convection might have also help with laying out some outflow boundaries as a trigger later today. Another thing to note is the area currently under the enhanced risk is socked in low clouds, while pretty decent heating has commenced down here in the Metroplex.

18z GFS is definitely far more reasonable in the long range.

Northward extent is in question, but in general, it seems that will be the big day right now.

Sorry to say, I can confirm your aunt's sister is grossly exaggerating the extent of the warm season here, lol. As the last 2 winters prove, Dallas in particular can get pretty cold at times in the Winter with snow/ice events. It doesn't stick around long and it's not always of consequences, but it does happen. Also, most of the trees do in fact change colors by mid-November before going bare like up north from December to March. The September - November and March - May are actually pretty pleasant like a Summer up there, as it's not too humid yet and temps are only in the 70s and 80s.

Right. We get 4 seasons in most of the Sumbelt north of say a Corpus Christi - Tampa/Orlando line. It's just that the Spring/Fall are extended and the Winter is extremely short.

The snow and even the cold isn't so bad in moderation. It's the fact that it sticks around forever and the constant overcast skies (granted, west of the Great Lakes out towards Chicago and Minneapolis, it's not *AS* cloudy) that gets to you. It often catches transplants from the sunbelt who aren't familiar with "lake effect" off guard. This is especially true if you suffer from SAD.

The SPC has a pretty large hatched 30% risk area for Tuesday, stretching from DFW northward to Des Moines / Omaha.

DFW is overachieving a bit today. Currently 88*F.

FWIW, the 00z GFS was definitely different (in a good way here, and a less bad way there) with the evolution of the pattern beyond mid-next week.

Unfortunately, the 70*F+ streak at DFW is broken with only a high of 69*F today.

It's unfortunate when a midnight temp in the 50s is the best you can do for warm weather in April...

A ton of smoke/dust has blown in from the NW as sunset approaches, making for hazy skies.