Powerball

Mesoscale Discussion 1036 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Illinois and northern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 202025Z - 202230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...There is an increasing severe weather threat late this afternoon and into the evening from east-central Illinois into northern Indiana. DISCUSSION...An MCV has traversed northern Missouri and western Illinois through the morning and early afternoon today. The convection has been mostly weak, likely due to the stable, capped downstream airmass from the overnight MCS in the region. In fact, almost all lightning has now ended within this cluster. However, a remnant MCV can still be seen in radar imagery from the KILX WSR-88D. The 19Z RAOB from KILX shows the stable airmass with MLCIN near -200 J/kg. However, the hodograph does show decent clockwise curvature within the lowest 3 km and moderate mid-level flow. This is likely a good proximity hodograph for later storms which are expected to form near this MCV later this afternoon/early evening. Despite the lackluster storm development thus far, this is expected to change in the next 1 to 2 hours as this MCV moves into east central Illinois where the airmass was not worked over by overnight convection. In this region dewpoints are in the low 70s with temperatures in the mid 80s with the SPC mesoanalysis suggesting 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. This instability, combined with 45 to 50 knots of effective shear per 19Z ILX RAOB and SPC mesoanalysis should be sufficient for supercell development. Any supercells which develop may have a risk of all hazards including a couple of tornadoes. The tornado threat will likely be greatest in a narrow corridor where winds are backed to southerly near the MCV and near the warm front where low-level vorticity should be enhanced. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/20/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 39828860 40048872 40738869 41348849 41618788 41638701 41768622 41718552 41488527 40798527 40108660 40048723 39728838 39828860

Maybe a sign for you this event isn't worth storm chasing.

Just FYI, when the SPC outlines an area in red, 95% of the time it indicates a Tornado Watch is forthcoming.

Did you all think it would come easy? That doesn't happen this year, lol.

Welp, so much for that.

***knocking on wood*** Radar trends aren't looking too bad for you right now.

That's about sums up the 2021 severe weather "season" everywhere not named MS or AL.

Verbatim, the 12s GFS would be a nice ROF setup for our region.

Today's high at DFW was 99*F.

Today's high at DFW was 98*F. Yesterday's high was 97*F.

Absolutely.

You can say the same thing about places up north and heaters (which didn't become mainstream until the mid 1800s). Would all of the folks who migrated from down south and turned those cities to turn into 20th century boomtowns had moved there if central heating didn't exist?

It's all a matter of perspective. They think the same thing when you guys are dealing with temps below zero in the winter.'

Today's high at DFW was 99*F. BTW, the low of 81*F this morning was a record, breaking the previous record of 80*F set in 2008.

Cell's trying to blow up now over Irving.

Heat advisory until 7pm for Dallas and Tarrant Counties. Currently 94*F at DFW. Forecast is for a high of 99*F.

Interestingly enough, hi-res models are trying to blow up some convection this afternoon, although they're centering on an area just to the SW of the Metroplex. But even then, the cloud debris from them could keep the afternoon temps in check. We'll see what happens...

Didn't even get below 80*F last night, with a low of 81*F. And now the temps are off to the races as the sun rises. The cloud debris seems to have largely diminished again too.

Officially, today's high at DFW was 99*F.

The cloud debris wasn't nearly as extensive as expected. Most of the day has been Sunny with blue skies (finally). Currently 98*F at DFW.

Oh dear god, make it stop.. 000 FXUS64 KFWD 131106 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 606 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Monday/ Another decaying complex of storms has continued to progress southeastward toward North Texas. While the vigor of this complex is much less than that of last night, it has overachieved as a large cold pool has allowed it to progress quickly to the southeast. While it does appear that most of the complex will dissipate completely prior to its arrival into North Texas, there`s enough of a risk that 20-30 PoP have been advertised near and north of the US HWY 380 corridor. For some areas, gusty winds are possible as outflow continues to scoot east and southeastward. Otherwise, some patchy fog has developed within the lower Trinity River Valley across portions of Henderson, Anderson, Navarro and Freestone counties. Visibility may fall down to near 2 miles in spots. Fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise. In the near term...I increased sky coverage for a majority of the area as the cirrus canopy from the decaying complex overspreads the area. I feel confident that this cloud cover will thin enough such that highs in the low to mid 90s are still achievable. If not---then MaxT grids will need to be nudged downward. This afternoon, it appears that the risk for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop has increased from originally thought. Radar imagery from western Oklahoma shows a well defined mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). Short term high-resolution model guidance has resolved this feature well and advertises an increase in showers/storms generally west of I-35. I`ve cautiously nudged PoPs upward for late this afternoon and into the evening hours given the poor performance of guidance over the past several days. However, with the MCV quite apparent, I do have confidence that showers/storms will develop somewhere across the region. Given the abundance of moisture and thus instability, a small cluster may evolve and dive southward out of Oklahoma---steered along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. The severe weather risk doesn`t appear overly high given the paltry deep layer shear values; however, daytime heating may promote steep low-level lapse rates and thus a risk for strong to near-severe caliber wind gusts.

^^^Right on the money.

Correction: The line decayed as soon as it reached the Dallas County border. Not even going to get the benefit of a heavy/torrential downpour from this.

Yeah, so much for that 10% chance of rain, lol. I suspect the 90*F+ high today ain't going to happen either.