Powerball
-
Posts
14,305 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Powerball
-
Parameter-wise and synoptically, 00z NAM was similar to the 00z HRRR. The big difference that the NAM maintain a relatively stout cap, which keeps convective coverage/intensity in check. -
Day 1 Enchanced Riak Area was expanded just far enough NW to technically include Fort Worth and Dallas proper, but they stoped just short of including the entire Metroplex. And this was mainly for the wind threat. Location of other probabilities didn't really change, expect the hail threat area taking a bit more of a NW to SE orientation.
-
The radar's already been posted above. Here's the sounding:
-
00z HRRR is really ominous for DFW tomorrow evening, including a PDS Tornado sounding.
-
At least for this sub, it's yet another messy setup. Not to mention, a lot of the regular posters here are in DFW, which is NW of the highest risk area. 2022 definitely seems to be starting right where 2021 left off, though.
-
18z RAP also has a similar sounding to the 12z NAM for DFW Monday evening. But again, still a weak cap with the best forcing/dynamics just to the east.
-
FWD has cleaned up the wording in their grids, and added a heavy rainfall mention with 1-2" of precipitation tomorrow. I know extreme drought conditions are ongoing, but they did mention the possibility of a Flash Flood Watch in their morning discussion. We'll see if they isssue one.
-
That's capped (albeit weak) and the best forcing/dynamics are well off to the east by that point.
-
That's probably because the MS/AL folks also post over at SouthernWX.
-
Hmmm, not sure what to think about that 00z NAM. Definitely some changes with it.
-
With the 00z runs, we're now getting into the time frame for the hi-res models which should hopefully aid in predictability.
-
Contamination in that specific sounding aside, other soundings from the Mississippi Delta region show parameters roughly as extreme.
-
I will add the caveat, the 06z and 12z GFS have gradually trended towards a NAM-like solution
-
Won't need temps to get too warm for a tornadic weather in this setup, although it would keep the hail and damaging wind threat in check. For DFW specifically, the key is going to be how quickly the shortwave moves eastward. Same thing goes if the morning round of storms ends up overachieving, which would put the Metroplex under the influence of an outflow bubble. These factors would displace the LLJ (thus inflow of moisture / unstable air) further east. The NAM has been closest to a worst case scenario, but it's also kind of on its own. Most other models are a bit more progressive with the shortwave and bullish with the coverage of morning storms, focusing the severe threat more so towards East Louisiana and East Central TX.
-
Welp, the 18z NAM trended towards the faster GFS solution...
-
The latest 30-year averages nationwide, with the March/April averages being cooler and the September/October averages being warmer, definitely seem to suggest that we're seeing a gradual shift in when seasons start/end.
-
If I remember correctly, March and May were both above normal in 2010 & 2012. But yeah, April was normal to coolish both times.
-
The NAM is notably slower with the system on Monday, FWIW.
-
Storms have a lot more lightning with them than the detector lets on, too.
-
Yep. It was close, but the pereistent stratuocumulus field since early afternoon has kept surface temps in check. If anything, per the latest SPC mesoanalysis, the cap has strengthened a bit more.
-
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Areas affected...North TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48... Valid 172255Z - 180030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48 continues. SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across North TX over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows increasingly agitated cumulus along the dryline moving into north TX. Forecast soundings in much of this region continue to show warm temperatures aloft, supporting convective inhibition. Most recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCIN is around -25 to -50 J/kg. Recent ACARS soundings from DAL also continue to show capping, with MLCIN around -30 to -35 J/kg. Even so, convergence along the boundary is quite strong and moisture advection continue in the downstream environment. Dewpoints have increased along the I-35 corridor 3-4 degrees over the past 3 hours. Given these improving thermodynamics and persistent low-level convergence, the potential exists for a few deeper, more sustained updrafts. Wind profiles show strong low-level veering but a pronounced weakness in the mid-levels. As a result, storm organization will likely be somewhat limited. Even so, a few strong to severe storms are possible and watch expansion southward may need to be considered soon. ..Mosier.. 03/17/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 32549661 32149693 31979742 32049779 32289802 32649800 32729801 33239798 33699796 33859768 33839718 33769677 33599660 33289651 32549661
-
Seeing returns starting to blossom out of that CU field and the cap now looking pretty weak, I'm now feeling a bit more optimistic about activity in the Metroplex 1-2 hours from now. That said, depending on the extent of southward development, any activity may still skirt by to the NW of the heart of DFW as it rotates around the shortwave.
-
A decent looking CU field has formed along a line out near Eastland down to Brownwood. If there's any initiation this far south (still questionable), that's where it would be.
-
12z runs are a bit more progressive with the trough, and have shifted the threat more into East TX and Western LA. We'll see if that's the start of a trend, although models have a tendency to be too quick with cut off ULLs. On a mesoscale level, past history suggests that when you have such a messy cloud cover/precipitation activity early in the day (as the models are depicting for Monday morning), the better risk areas are outflow driven and forced further to the SE than the synoptic setup would suggest So my preliminary thinking is that the Metroplex may yet again avoid the more significant activity. Today being a near-miss to the NE and Monday being a near-miss to the SE.
