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Powerball

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Everything posted by Powerball

  1. Powerball
    FWD has bumped evening PoPs up to 70-80%
  2. Powerball
    Latest SPC has all of the eastern half of the Metroplex under a 5% tornado risk, 15% wind risk and hatched 15% hail risk. We'll see...
  3. Powerball
    FWD has bumped up PoPs to 40-50%.
  4. Powerball
    Tomorrow could be an interesting day. DFW is under a slight risk for severe weather and FWD has added the severe wording to the grids east of I-35E. That said, the higher severe probabilities us just east of here and the grids only have a 20-30% chance of precipitation.
  5. Powerball
    Much of DFW and Western Oklahoma is now under extreme drought conditions. There's been some relief in other parts of Northern/Western Texas with the numerous winter weather events since early February, but current model projections suggests it will worsen. Certainly not good as we head into the warm season.
  6. Powerball
    Another bullet dodged, thank god. Hopefully now, we can finally move on to a Spring and a (for once, active) severe weather season.
  7. Powerball
    It increasingy appears DFW largely dodged a bullet, and for that I say thank god.
  8. Powerball
    If there's a god, last night and 2/16 better not be a sign of the lackluster severe weather season to come for the immediate Metroplex (ala 2021 redux), with everything skirting by just to the south / east / west / north and all of the setups being in the nighttime *AGAIN*.
  9. Powerball
    That's spread the BS.
  10. Powerball
    It's crazy that the squall line is still going strong into PA and NY. Might even make it to Philly and NYC later today.
  11. Powerball
    Seems like 4-6" is the final range for most of Metro Detroit, which is on the lower half of the forecast range and less than what the models yesterday morning were predicting.
  12. Powerball
    A lot of the snowfall reports through 10pm did seem to be somewhat underwhelming. They confirmed your 3-4" measurement. That said, that was before the heavy band that's moving through now, which might dump another few inches. Should be good enough to meet the forecast range of 4-8", although maybe somewhat less than what the models had depicted this morning.
  13. Powerball
    Not a chance, lol. Last 6"+ snowstorm, maybe. But I'd bet money this won't be the last snow.
  14. Powerball
    The changeover is progressing SE pretty quickly from what I can tell. Per the SPC mesoanalysis, the snow/sleet line is over Detroit proper now.
  15. Powerball
    But the 06z NAM also noticably drier. The WSWs would be quite marginal, with just barely over 6" in the heaviest part of the band. 06z RGEM is wetter though, lol.
  16. Powerball
    And of course, the 00z RGEM is wetter and bumped NW.
  17. Powerball
    Heck, I think I've only seen Hail maybe 3 times with a thunderstorm. Two of those times it was stray stones mixed in with rain. And as far as thundersnow, I've only seen it 2 times (one of which was with a LES squall). I'm not exactly a spring chicken either.
  18. Powerball
    I'm just amazed at how these storms seemingly keep unraveling when we get so close to onset.
  19. Powerball
    In essence, the NAM suggests that the string of WSW and WWAs in Michigan have been extended 1 row of counties too far north. And that's not even considering it's been on the more amped/NW end of guidance the entire time
  20. Powerball
    Can't help but feel bad for the mets in Detroit if the bleeding doesn't stop, after what happened with GHD 3.
  21. Powerball
    HRW FV3 is also drier and it bumped south.
  22. Powerball
    00z HRRR is also notably drier.
  23. Powerball
    GHD 3?
  24. Powerball
    The GEM, which needs love too, has also been on the right track for this storm along with the EURO, especially with the drying trend.
  25. Powerball
    Like most severe weather events as of late, this will definitely be a good setup for MS/AL. For TX and OK, it's looking like nothing special.
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