Powerball

Only got a few rumbles of thunder here. Not even a drop of rain from it. It also looks like it weakened significantly once it crossed over into Collin County. In any event, I'm calling it a night.

That's what the HRRR shows. But I suspect things will have transitioned to a heavy rain threat by then.

For a second, there were indications that the outflow boundary (now over DFW) would steal the show, which might have been why the enhanced risk area was shifted eastward. Apparently, seeing the latest radar trends, it's not going to work out that way.

That's my understanding.

At least here in DFW, the climatological peak for Severe Weather is now. There's still time (and yes, big severe weather events have happened in May or even June), but climo is going to gradually become less favorable as we move forward from here.

I wouldn't call it a dull season. It's just that Dixie Alley has gotten all of the action.

Maybe DFW can eventually get a nice derecho like it did in June 2019 to make up for the otherwise "BLAH!!!" season...

So far, this Spring hasn't had many similarities with 2011. For April 2011, the temp was 71*F. This year, it's currently 63*F (average is 66.5*F). Spring 2011 was also dry as a bone (no observed precip for March and April). This Spring, to-date, we're at 5.9". The temp for March this year was similar to 2011, though.

Actually, I'm mistaken. the latest was actually 6/12. But that was definitely a back loaded Summer, as DFW ended up with 18 100*F+ days.

DFW's latest 1st 90*F high on record is 6/6. That same season also had only 1 100*F+ day. I pray we don't make a run for those records. But it doesn't look like DFW has a legitimate shot at 90*F+ any time in the forseeable future. The average first 90*F+ day is 4/19, BTW.

Potentially. Models are still struggling with how progressive the trough will be.

Tornado Warning has been issued for Denton County, TX until 7:20pm.

Mesoscale Discussion 0409 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Areas affected...portions of west-central and north Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98... Valid 232028Z - 232230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98 continues. SUMMARY...A few intense cells are possible the next 2-4 hours across parts of northern/west-central Texas. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards expected with this activity. DISCUSSION...Additional thunderstorms are develop and/or strengthening just ahead of the eastward-advancing dryline this afternoon. This activity is moving into an airmass that has seen less thunderstorm activity early in the day compared to areas to the east and south, and where dewpoints have climbed into the mid to upper 60s. Increasing low level moisture beneath midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km is resulting in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting storm intensification. Furthermore, regional VWP data suggest shear profiles have continued to improve/strengthen which should allow for some better-organized cells. 20z experimental Warn-on-Forecast ensemble guidance also indicates a few intense cells are possible across the MCD area, including western portions of the Fort Worth metro area, over the next 2-4 hours, potentially producing large hail and damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 31919933 32769901 33069876 33299824 33279762 33099736 32839725 32529730 32149738 32029747 31649766 31219824 31159877 31129904 31299931 31599932 31919933

This is the storm that just blew through here. Didn't get any hail, mind you. Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC085-113-397-232030- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0086.210423T1927Z-210423T2030Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 227 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Rockwall County in north central Texas... Collin County in north central Texas... Northeastern Dallas County in north central Texas... * Until 330 PM CDT. * At 227 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Richardson, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Dallas, Plano, Garland, McKinney, Carrollton, Frisco, Richardson, Allen, Rowlett, Wylie, Rockwall, Farmers Branch, University Park, Sachse, Addison, Highland Park, Murphy, Royse City, Fairview and Princeton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3335 9638 3334 9638 3334 9637 3328 9629 3299 9630 3292 9652 3281 9677 3299 9689 3299 9684 3311 9684 3338 9642 TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 232DEG 27KT 3298 9672 HAIL...1.25IN WIND...60MPH $$ Sanchez

Nothing severe, but getting torrential downpours and loud cracks of thunder. Even seeing some cloud-to-ground lightning. This is the first t'storm I've seen in the daytime here, I might add.

It's a pretty underwhelming sounding in general.

Mesoscale Discussion 0405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Areas affected...portions of northern and central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 231629Z - 231800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over the next couple of hours. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity through the afternoon/evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by 18z. DISCUSSION...An area of deepening, midlevel convection atop the EML across west-central TX is evident in radar and visible satellite imagery as of 16z. This is indicative of increasing large-scale ascent now spreading into western TX, in conjunction with continued warm advection/increasing moisture beneath the weakening EML. Over the next couple of hours, convection is expected to continue to increase with a slow erosion of the cap. This may result in a mix of elevated storms, transitioning toward surface-based convection through the afternoon. Very steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) and favorable, elongated hodographs will support large hail. PW values increasing to around 1.5-1.75 with northward extent, and increasing low level flow will also promote strong/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/23/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29309832 29519883 29789911 30589935 31169932 31449930 34059863 34319832 34409769 34349711 34259672 33769649 33179633 32929633 30459625 29629661 29319716 29269775 29309832

Correction: A 30% hail area was added in SW OK.

On the latest outlook from the SPC, the enhanced risk areas have been shuffled around a bit. The one covering Eastern TX / LA was shifted SW and now extends into all of far southern MS, and the one covering south central OK was expanded westward. Otherwise, I don't see any other major changes

It looks like things are now trying to get going just to the west of Brownwood, TX.

Enhanced risk has been added by the SPC over south central OK, including OKC.

Good call on the day 1 enhanced risk from the SPC.

Hi-Res models have been mixed on convection coverage locally. Some go bonkers (like the 3km NAM and RGEM), and others give us the middle finger (NMMB and ARW) This time though, the cap won't be an issue. It's going to be where the best forcing and convergence sets up.