Powerball

Honestly, I think the other Detroit area members can attest that none of the Detroit TV meteorologists are that great. Dave Rexroth (ABC affiliate) is probably the best of the bunch.

Does anyone have the snowfall map for the 18z EURO op, that includes the 2nd wave?

Isn't it SOP to issue Winter Storm Watches at least 48hrs before the onset of an event? You guys (I'm talking about all the WFOs in line for some impact from this system) will definitely need to shit or get off the pot by tomorrow.

Why not also include the Japanese and NOGAPS models for good measure...

Not sure if this was already posted... Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 250 PM EST Sun Jan 30 2022 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-311000- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery- Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke- Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan- Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew- Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma, Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon 250 PM EST Sun Jan 30 2022 ...WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY IMPACT TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... There is a chance of wintry precipitation beginning Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday across central Indiana. Timing, and details on dominant precipitation type and amounts are still not clear. However, forecast confidence is expected to increase over the next couple of days. Early indications are that wintry precipitation could cause significant travel impacts across portions of the area. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain are all possible.

While good, yesterday's 12z/18z GFS would be just beautiful.

Might have to make an impromptu trip if that GFS verifies. But will need to see more model agreement and consistency (hopefully sooner than later for travel plans).

A general rule for sleet would be 925mb temps of at least -5°C with 850mb temps in the +1-3°C range.

There was a period (albeit brief) where the heaviest amounts shifted into Northern OH / IN.

On the flip side, a last minute bump north with GHD 2 put Detroit in the bullseye.

True to the bolded. That's why I said it's all boils down to what data they used to make that map. Perhaps their intention was to only focus on first order sites where co-op observers measure snow using NWS equipment and guidelines.

I'm not sure what you mean. NWS has a team of volunteers all across the country who do ground reports of snowfall using NWS-required guidelines and NWS equipment, to ensure accurate measurements. For the purpose of climate recordkeeping, these Co-op volunteers only observe snowfall at sites where an actual human is on site collecting data (versus an ASOS). There are also a few WFOs where local TV station or FAA employees are authorized to be official reporters. But this isn't typical. Then of course, there are actual NWS employees and NWS offices. The problem with Cocorahs and even trained storm spotters (who aren't the same as Co-op observers) is there's a greater likelihood their reports will inaccurate since they haven't undergone the training to measure snow properly and don't have the proper equipment. We don't know if they're slant sticking, measuring drifts, etc.

My guess is that map is based on snowfall measurements from first order weather stations, and not measurements from storm spotters. So it may not necessarily be wrong, but based on a specific set of data.

The other thing about 1978 was the hype leading up to it. If I'm not mistaken, it was similar to 1999 in a way with Blizzard headlines a good week out. Not to mention, there was pretty good consensus amongst the (primitive?) forecast models it would be an intense cyclone well in advance. Us weather weenies know Detroit got screwed by what was ultimately a last minute NW shift and the storm deepening even more than what was projected. But the average joe doesn't pay attention to those type of details. EDIT: I'd say the only storm that came closest in terms of hype (in recent history) was actually GHD 1.

The recent Buffalo storm is about as perfect of a synoptic setup as you can get for epic snow amounts. *Closed upper level low *Negative tilt trough *Rapidly deepening gulf low *Strong 850mb Jet (TROWAL) *No blocking to force coastal transfer A system along those lines seem to be like a unicorn these days in the western half of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. With this sysyem, the key will be getting favorable thermals to align with the best forcing, getting the best forcing to train over the same areas for the storm's entirety and for the best forcing to not end up so far above the DGZ that snow ratios take a hit.

EURO shows a widespread 8-12" on the map I see. A 10-15" event (with narrow banding of slightly higher amounts) seems reasonable to expect, IMO.

Sure, but that's why they're called outliers/extremes. That said, I'd love nothing more than for the GFS to happen for you all.

I'd bet money the EURO's totals will end up closer to correct than not.

It is interesting that the GEFS are generally NW of the OP run, especially with the other models SE of it (some considerably).

Even the 10:1 ratio map (likely also too conservative) on the GFS is pretty impressive. It would be Detroit's largest snowstorm ever, with 12" falling in 9 hours.

GGEM would be a nasty sleet storm for DFW, and GFS would be a nasty ice storm. Awful...

12z GFS does, however, show an impressive thumping with 0.75" to 1" of QPF in 6hr from C. Illinois to NE Indiana up to Detroit. Easily 1-2"+ per hour with blizzard conditions for that period. This is the only run to show something like it though. Most likely the ceiling in terms of potential.

I don't think the QPF amounts were 3", but they were still insanely high when they saw all that sleet from GHD I.

I would legit be jealous if that happened.

Boston gonna Boston.