Powerball

Fortunately, it may ease on by just to the south.

When I saw those mid-level lapse rates this morning, I kind of suspected there would be some intense hailers today.

That cell moving into Ottawa, KS is looking increasingly omnous.

The lightning is pretty impressive too, especially for so far north in December. Almost 400 strikes per minute.

ABC affiliate in Omaha: https://www.ketv.com/nowcast

Live news broadcast from the NBC affiliate in Omaha: https://www.wowt.com/2021/12/15/6-first-alert-day-omaha-metro-braces-high-winds/

Per SPC 3:13pm CT report, there's a TOG in Humphrey, NE.

Looks like there's a quite a bit of CIHN across IA. While the line should easily break the cap, the CIHN may be the saving grace that prevents more tornadic supercells from developing ahead of the line.

https://twitter.com/KathrynProciv/status/1471087134861930508?t=tr2yUJoFfeTw7aLYVg9EJQ&s=19

Although not PDS, still pretty high end for a TOR Watch.

I wonder if it will be a PDS watch...

CU field starting to develop in SE Nebraska and Central Kansas.

Got a few DFW sites reporting gusts over 50 MPH right now. Pretty widespread 35 - 45 MPH gusts though.

The western 2/3rds of Iowa and much of far eastern Nebraska looks to have clear skies now.

Actually, taking another look, they did expand the Moderate Risk areas a bit further SW to include Omaha and far east central Nebraska.

Sometimes, you just gotta learn how to read the room. I doubt a bunch of theme park enthusiasts care about the intricate weather details you wanted to discuss

Lower MI and far eastern IL were removed from the general thunder area, but that's about it.

Unless there's shallow low clouds I'm not seeing, there's pretty good insolation right now over SE Nebraska and SW Iowa.

Apparently, this is also the first Moderate Risk ever in this area in December...

One concern I did have about this event was moisture return, but dewpoints are already ~60°F into Iowa. That should only go up further aa the LLJ strengthens and the trough amplifies...

It's where the models are picking up strong rotation as the cells move through.

I called it back on Sunday. A lot of similarities to the severe weather setup tonight with this past Saturday/Sunday. At least this time around, the heightened threat level is being a lot more hyped earlier. Perhaps this will convince more people to be more dilligent about monitoring the weather conditions this evening.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC085-231-397-102330- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0274.211210T2243Z-211210T2330Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 443 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Rockwall County in north central Texas... Central Hunt County in north central Texas... Southeastern Collin County in north central Texas... * Until 530 PM CST. * At 443 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fate, or near Rockwall, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Wylie, Rockwall, Greenville, Commerce, Royse City, Fate, Farmersville, Wolfe City, Caddo Mills, Celeste, Campbell, Mobile City, Lavon, McLendon-Chisholm, Nevada, Josephine and Neylandville. This includes Interstate 30 between mile markers 68 and 100. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3284 9643 3300 9652 3338 9610 3341 9586 3324 9586 TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 227DEG 43KT 3298 9640 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ Gordon

Well alrighty then... Mesoscale Discussion 1981 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0420 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Areas affected...Northeast Texas...far southeast Oklahoma...and far southwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 102220Z - 102345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are possible across portions of the Arklatex. DISCUSSION...High based showers have developed along a dryline which has recently passed through Dallas. These showers are now moving into a more moisture rich airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This is yielding MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg beneath strong mid-level flow and effective shear in excess of 60 knots. Therefore, further intensification of these showers are possible. The threat will likely remain isolated, but the environment is quite favorable for supercells with an initial large hail threat with an increasing tornado threat with eastward extent. The isolated nature of any storm development may preclude the need for a watch, but if storm intensity is great enough or if more storms develop, a watch may be needed. ..Bentley/Grams.. 12/10/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33279692 34019584 34579457 34189338 33319365 32189491 31809694 31979759 33279692