Powerball

18z 3km NAM does pop one lone cell over parts of Dallas County later today.

Dry line is already entering the western half of DFW. We'll see if it does slows down, or if it moves through and sets up shop just east of the Metroplex like the GFS has been showing.

The cloud deck has finally moved to the east, so now it's just waiting to see what happens as temps surge.

A cluster of storms (which will likely become severe for the Arklatex region later) did blow up just to the NE, on the nose of the LLJ.

I can hear the dad laugh in my head as I read that.

Between the tragic incident earlier and now this, it's just not their day.

Well technically, it still shows the tiniest bit of mixed level CINH, but I've seen storms break through that easily. So it's understandable why FWD has been so ominous in their discussion, especially with the strong surface convergence from the dry line. The 3km NAM does make a valiant attempt at breaking the cap though. I just took a look at the HRRR's forecasted sounding where this evening's supercell in Central TX originated, and it had similar CINN values to what the HRRR's advertising for tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Pretty insane sounding at 22z over the eastern half of DFW. Cap is virtually gone too.

The EURO was already an outlier when they issued the outlook this morning.

And 1 new SPC outlook later, DFW has gone from being in the enhanced risk area to barely being in the slight risk area, lol..

There was apparently quite a bit of correspondence with the NWS branches for this outlook, according to FWD.. Pretty ominous AFD from them, although I'm still not seeing it in the cards for the Metroplex due to capping... 542 FXUS64 KFWD 081058 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 558 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021 ...Significant Severe Weather Episode Expected Across Most Of North Texas Into Eastern Central Texas Late Friday Afternoon Into Friday Night... As has been discussed in recent long term discussions the past 24-48 hours, it appears a fairly significant severe weather episode is taking shape for specifically areas east of US-281 in North Texas into our East Texas counties late Friday afternoon into Friday night, specifically the evening hours. Large to very large hail will be the primary concerns to go along with an additional risk for localized damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado across our far eastern counties. First the hail threat. A surface low with a trailing surface dryline to the south will move progressively southeast from NW TX and the Big Country into the Eastern Hill Country and western Central TX by 00z Saturday (or early evening Friday). This will be in response to mid level height falls out in advance of a vigorous shortwave expected to arrive Friday evening. In advance of this feature, the left-exit region of a 110-120 knot upper jet maximum will be moving from the Permian Basin and across SCentTX into SE TX. Impressive low level warm advection from 35-45 low level flow within the 925mb-850mb layer will help to transport moisture-rich air from the TX Coast and nearshore waters north-northeast across areas along and east of I-35 corridor as evidenced by surface dew point temperatures in the mid-upper 60s. Throw in warm spring temperatures well into the 80s across most areas east of the approaching dryline and we`re staring at late day SB/MLCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/KG to go along with VERY STEEP mid level lapse rates between 8-9 deg C/km aloft. Kinematically, this thermodynamic environment will correlate with westerly deep layer shear on the order of 40-45 knots. After correspondence with SPC it was agreed that the European model would be the preferred model on trends with the surface low, cold front, and dryline (not as far east and mixing out surface moisture as much as the GFS and not exhibiting too cool of a bias east of the dryline, thus keeping the area more capped with less convective initiation and/or keep storms strictly "elevated"). South of the surface low and behind the dryline late Friday afternoon, hot temperatures in the lower-mid 90s will correlate with very dry air and breezy west or northwest winds for an elevated wildfire threat south of I-20 and especially along and west of US-281. If not for the latest green up the past month, we`d be likely looking at higher ERC-G values and a more critical wildfire threat. As all these variables and parameters come together, the initially strong capping inversion in the 850mb-700mb layer should lift, moisten, and weaken across much of the area during the evening rush hour for at least isolated to scattered storms to begin developing from the DFW Metro north and east. With the impressive free lift noted in the hail growth zone (-10 to -30 deg C), we are staring at the prospects of seeing intense updrafts aloft with hail similar to what was seen in both the Denton to Wylie and Dallas/Van Alstyne hail events of the past decade when it comes to hail size. Might as well throw in the early April event of 2003 as well as historical analogs from forecast point soundings of several models show events that contained golfball to even baseball or softball size hail. Considering the curved low level profile through 850mb veering and lengthening above that, and a weakening cap from mid afternoon through early evening, discrete supercell tstorms will be possible. I believe the cap should hold most areas during this time for hail to be the main threat and impact, though storms will approach becoming surface-based by early Friday evening ahead of an advancing cold front arriving from OK into North-Central TX. The best bet for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be east of the DFW Metroplex and across areas east of Hwy 75 in the north and along and east of I-45 in Central Texas. The one mitigating factor for higher tornado threat will be relatively weak and veering low level 0-1 km flow 5-15 knots, as the strong low level 40 knot+ winds migrate east of our the area by evening. This will shift the greater tornado and damaging wind threat further east toward the Piney Woods/AR-LA-TX east into the Lower MS Valley, which is the eastern half of the newly issued Enhanced Risk from SPC across this region. As we enter the nighttime hours post- sunset, the vigorous mid level shortwave will be tracking toward the LA/TX border region and help draw the strong cold front over OK southward into North Texas through midnight. Previous discrete modes will transform more into a squall line (or linear MCS if you prefer) to track south- southeast from east of US 287/I-35W in North TX through our far eastern counties from mid evening into the early pre-dawn hours. At this time, I expect primarily a damaging wind threat to go along with lower end severe hail in the range of quarter to possible half dollar size with updraft strength not being quite as intense due to interruption from other storms along the line.

It has potential. Highly conditional setup this far west though.

Haven't the past several years been a "Dixie Alley" year? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0048-2

The only thing that seems to be guaranteed is that we're going to be dealing with a worsening Spring drought.

BTW, I guess any event that's not the end of the world is just going to be a glorified Special Weather Statement now...

I miss Snow Advisories and Heavy Snow Warnings.

Is there an inside joke that I'm missing?

As is common with convection, their mesoscale effects kind of screwed up the whole surface pattern compared to what the models showed as the elevated prefrontal activity from yesterday morning turned into the main show while MS and TN were (relatively) spared.

I know memories aren't always long when it comes to weather, but Newnan was just hit with tornadoes back in October (not even 6 months ago).

Looks like I left Newnan just in time. Reports suggests that, at minimum, a EF4 tornado blew through the middle of town. Substantial structural damage being reported.

I suspect not only will they extend the watch (set to expire in 15 minutes), but likely upgrade it to a Tornado Watch

Well, the Dallas side of the Metroplex has had activity in virtually every which direction surrounding it, but not overhead. Definitely luck of the draw, lol.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the rest of the DFW MEtroplex up to the OK border.

How's the green up progressing there (if at all)?