Powerball

Most of the recent model runs have the precip ending by Thursday evening. But that EURO run might grind another 1-2" more out on top of what was on that map.

I'm sure it would bury MKE.

Besides that, the 06z runs might have been the start of the models correcting to relatively more realistic amounts in the heaviest band.

That would be close to my original call, but not trip worthy. It's actually a bit drier than the 00z run.

These are pretty bullish watches too. DTX's early call is 12-15" in Detroit.

There was another bump NW on the 06z RGEM.

The 00z UKMET was a decent bump NW and is considerably wetter, but with the caveat that it was already on the far southern end of guidance.

Meanwhile here, I'm going to be dealing with a significant ice storm that will likely knock out power. That said, plane tickets ain't cheap, lol.

I haven't decided yet.

Considering it's been on the north/amped end of the model suite, relative to the other global models, that would be disconcerting.

True. But to the point mimillman got at, hopefully we're not seeing the end of the north trend already.

I have to imagine those Ohio numbers near the shore are, at least somewhat, lake enhanced. It would even more crazy if it were 100% synoptic.

It's looking like we're not going to get more clarity to pull the trigger (or not) on our travel plans this round of runs.

GFS looks like it ticked south with the main system.

Not enough time to make a 1000 mile trip if the weenie runs end up being right.

Not only that, but to provide more buffer, it's sitting squarely in the middle of the southern UKMET/GGEM and the northern Hi-Res models.

True. Frankly, when considering all the model outputs right now, DTW's in a solid position.

Verbatim, DTW's still all snow at the end of the run, but yeah that sleet line is close for sure.

It's going to be fun troll bumping these maps if the GFS is right.

I understand WDIV doesn't even have a chief meteorologists right now, since Ben Bailey left over the vaccine mandate.

Honestly, I think the other Detroit area members can attest that none of the Detroit TV meteorologists are that great. Dave Rexroth (ABC affiliate) is probably the best of the bunch.

Does anyone have the snowfall map for the 18z EURO op, that includes the 2nd wave?

Isn't it SOP to issue Winter Storm Watches at least 48hrs before the onset of an event? You guys (I'm talking about all the WFOs in line for some impact from this system) will definitely need to shit or get off the pot by tomorrow.

Why not also include the Japanese and NOGAPS models for good measure...

Not sure if this was already posted... Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 250 PM EST Sun Jan 30 2022 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-311000- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery- Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke- Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan- Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew- Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma, Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon 250 PM EST Sun Jan 30 2022 ...WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY IMPACT TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... There is a chance of wintry precipitation beginning Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday across central Indiana. Timing, and details on dominant precipitation type and amounts are still not clear. However, forecast confidence is expected to increase over the next couple of days. Early indications are that wintry precipitation could cause significant travel impacts across portions of the area. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain are all possible.