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Everything posted by Powerball
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Clown map
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Knowing Detroit, it's going to be grungy regardless of the temp.
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^^^Of course, it works out for places like Detroit, because strong negative tilt cutters would more likely end up being rainers for them.
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fyp.
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Off to a rocking start... (BTW, record high is in the upper 80s).
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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion
Powerball replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Why don't you have a Met tag? I remember you going to school for that. (serious question) -
Southern Plains Winter 2021-2022
Powerball replied to Iceresistance's topic in Central/Western States
DFW ended up +1.3*F above average for November. -
Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion
Powerball replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I mean, we had snow-on-snow in *Texas* this past February. So nothing surprises me any more, lol... -
Southern Plains Winter 2021-2022
Powerball replied to Iceresistance's topic in Central/Western States
Although it was a roller coaster month and much cooler than October, November's still on track to be above average here in DFW.In fact, highs for the next 2 days to end the month will be 10+ degrees above average. -
If I remember correctly, 2017 was the year that Detroit saw the Christmas snowstorm.
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Not really getting strong wind gusts, but pretty erratic wind shifting.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1937 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021 Areas affected...parts of north Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 102306Z - 110100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging hail, strong gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are expected to affect parts of north Texas this evening. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front from central OK into northwest TX, with a dryline from near Wichita Falls extending southwestward toward San Angelo. While dewpoints are only in the 55-60 F range, temperatures aloft are quite cold which is maximizing instability. A 21Z sounding from OUN showed 2000 J/kg MUCAPE, despite little heating today. Visible imagery shows towering CU near the cold front/dryline intersection approaching the Wichita Falls area. One or more supercells may eventually form out of this area, with storms forecast to progress east/southeastward this evening. Lengthening hodographs as well as steep lapse rates aloft with 500 mb temperatures near -17 C suggest damaging hail will be possible as storms move east/southeast along and south of the Red River. A brief tornado may occur as well, as low-level shear remains favorable prior to the cold front passing. However, low-level winds are forecast to rapidly veer this evening. ..Jewell/Edwards.. 11/10/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34289674 34109555 33929504 33529492 33029494 32659544 32429606 32389696 32479793 32579891 32849899 33269877 33689878 34259895 34499858 34429769 34289674
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If anything, the subsidence behind this initial line might help to keep the cells later this evening discrete longer.
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Lightning's showing up now over DFW, hearing thunder here.
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Looking at the clouds, you can actually see the updrafts trying their damndest to break through the cap as the initial line of showers moves through and instability/moisture advection picks up. There's some lightning strikes showing up within it in OK I see...
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CAMs are showing mixed signals at best for DFW. Some of them are, in fact, duds. So highly conditional setup here, but yeah, could be an active evening up in Central/Southern OK for sure. EDIT: It's crazy that we're seeing a lot more severe weather threats/events this fall than we saw during the entirety of our actual severe weather season.
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It seems October 2021 will tie (with 1988) for the 4th warmest on record for Detroit.
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Looks like Detroit might be on track for a top 5 warmest October on record, and possibly the warmest October it's seen in nearly 100 years. Current departure is 60.1*F, and it would need to stay above 59.5*F to make the top 5. Even down here, we're looking at a top 10 warmest October on record.
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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2021
Powerball replied to It's Always Sunny's topic in Central/Western States
Apparently, we had a rogue t'storm come through a little while ago (I was asleep).It doesn't seem to have been severe though. -
I think you forgot to add your sarcasm tag there...
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The real story there is that 6 of the top 10 warmest years have all been in the last 11 years, and all but 1 of the top 10 warmest years have been in the last 30 years.
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Severe Weather October 10th-12th 2021
Powerball replied to Sydney Claridge's topic in Central/Western States
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1082 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1231 PM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Areas affected...southwest into west-central Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 131631Z - 132231Z Summary...Onset of a long-duration flash flood threat is underway across the discussion area. Discussion...Latest observations and objective analyses indicate a nearly surface boundary extending from near 6R6 (near the Big Bend region of Texas) east-northeastward to near the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro area. Along and southeast of the front, abundantly moist and unstable air was supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms near the front that were increasing in coverage and intensity this morning. Flow aloft was southwesterly - generally parallel to the front - which was already allowing for some training especially near the convective band about 70 WSW of SJT. Areas of 1"/hr rates were already noted, which is not particularly surprising given 1.5-1.9 inch PW values along and ahead of the front. Over the next 6 hours (and potentially beyond), models depict a gradual expansion of convective coverage primarily due to weak confluence/convergence along and ahead of the front. The approach of moisture/lift associated with Tropical Cyclone Pam along the western coast of Mexico will also contribute to expanded convective coverage over time as well. FFG thresholds are generally in the 2-3"/hr range across most of the discussion area (slightly lower near the Austin/San Antonio corridor), suggesting that the greatest flash flood threat will be tied to areas that can experience training and/or persistence of heavy rainfall in the near term. Cook ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32689805 32479765 31719781 30789875 29679955 29130038 29300089 29560173 29570234 29690269 30450231 31190151 32489919 -
Severe Weather October 10th-12th 2021
Powerball replied to Sydney Claridge's topic in Central/Western States
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Severe Weather October 10th-12th 2021
Powerball replied to Sydney Claridge's topic in Central/Western States
Crazy that in the same season, we've had the high schools in 2 different places named Coweta destroyed by a strong nighttime tornadoes.