Powerball

DTX update... 000 FXUS63 KDTX 101559 CCA AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion...corrected author National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1144 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 .UPDATE... Southwest flow already gusting up to 25-30 kts accompanied by CWA- wide dewpoints firmly in the 72-74 range by 15z this morning. 12z DTX sounding indicated 1200 j/kg MLCAPE with a pronounced H7 cap beneath the resident shortwave ridge axis. Mean lapse rates from the cap to the EL, which resides around 36kft, averaging a pedestrian but still adequate 6C/KM or slightly better. Gravity waves within the disspating morning stratocu field over eastern areas indicative of the last vestigates of the nocturnal inversion while an increasingly agitated cu field has begun taking shape to the south and southwest. Convection remains unlikely in the very near term as capping will persist until the coincident arrival of cooler temperatures associated with increasing mid-level height falls and greater deep layer moisture over over northern Indiana around 17z, at which time data from a 17z special release will be incoming. Momentum fields will ramp up considerably in the 18-00z time frame as the shortwave over northeast Missouri acquires a shaprly negative tilt and lifts toward Lower MI. Superposition of strong dynamic forcing (especially south), the strengthening deep layer wind field, and MLCAPE on the order of 2000-2500 j/kg will anchor a widespread severe thunderstorm threat with evolution toward a high end threat with time and especially with eastward extent. Convective mode will be largely modulated by SSW bulk shear increasing from 35kts early this afternoon to 50kts or greater over the eastern half of the CWA during the peak of the event. SSW shear certainly supportive of a few supercells especially over central/eastern zones (i.e. away from the impinging cold front). Otherwise, convection is expected to organize into linear/bowing structures supported by strong/deep rear inflow. Regardless of convective mode, ample dry air noted on the morning sounding and vigorous updraft intensity will support strong/significant downbursts. Any supercells will also pose a marginal hail threat, any greater potential likely limited by the overall warm thermal profile. Strongly veered SSW wind proifle suggests extremely limited availability of streamwise vorticity to existing supercells as confirmed by paltry 0-0.5 SRH of 50-100 m2/s2. In any case, the greatest tornado threat will most likely occur with localized bottom-up type development (i.e. apex of bows, etc) rather than with supercells.

Mesoscale Discussion 0896 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Areas affected...southern through northeast IN...west-central and northwest OH...southern Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 101522Z - 101645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely initiate along the surface trough over southwest and west-central IN prior to 12pm EDT. Storms will develop/intensify as they move northeast during the early afternoon as they organize into clusters/bands of storms. Damaging gusts primarily in the 55-75 mph range are expected. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows towering cumulus from near Evansville north to Greencastle, IN along the wind shift boundary. Surface observations over IN have warmed into the mid 80s with dewpoints generally in the 73-74 deg F range (per reliable ASOS compared to AWOS showing artificially too high dewpoints 77-79 deg F). These surface conditions input into the 8am EDT Wilmington, OH observed sounding, are yielding around 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. KIND VAD shows around 50-55 kt in the 2-3 km AGL layer. Once storms develop and mature, water-loading and momentum transfer will favor damaging gusts with maximum wind speeds generally in the 55-75 mph range with the stronger downdrafts. The greatest coverage of severe gusts will likely focus in eastern IN/western OH where peak storm maturity, in the form of small bowing segments/cluster, is expected this afternoon. ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 38858725 40608648 42108519 42218432 41808384 41348384 38928550 38578601 38668679 38858725

Mesoscale Discussion 0895 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0844 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Areas affected...northern IN...southwest and western Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 101344Z - 101515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms will gradually intensify this morning and likely require a severe thunderstorm watch issuance by 11am-12pm EDT. Max thunderstorm gust potential will initially range 45-60 mph but strengthen into the 50-70 mph range towards midday as both the magnitude/coverage of damaging gusts increases. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a developing band of storms from east-central IL to the Chicago south side with another cluster of storms developing over northwest IN expected to move into southwest Lower MI during the next 1-2 hours. Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud streets across northern IN into southern Lower MI, indicative of a very moist boundary layer. Specifically regarding moisture, the 6am EDT Detroit, MI observed sounding showed a 16.3 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratio, a climatological maximum through June 15th during the period of record (since 1949). Pockets of strong heating per cloud breaks will contribute to a moderately unstable airmass by mid-late morning with little to any remaining convective inhibition as temperatures warm into the low-mid 80s. KIWX and KGRR show 30-40 kt in the 1-2 km AGL layer with 50 kt around 3km AGL at KGRR. As the mid-level migratory shortwave trough approaches the Great Lakes from MO today, additional storm development/strengthening is expected. As a result, damaging gusts will become more common as bands of storms intensify through the late morning and into the early afternoon. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out given the moist boundary layer and adequate speed shear in the lowest 1-2 km, but the general unidirectional southerly wind profile will tend to favor damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... LAT...LON 41798743 43518643 43958519 43588442 42868424 41178513 40788600 40858719 41798743

As mentioned in the other thread, this is definitely one of the best setups the Metro Detroit area has seen in a long time *Steep mid-level lapse rates *Negative-tilt trough *Strong tropical moisture advection (via. Cristobal remnants) *Perfect timing (peak heating) *Good chance of clear morning skies / no morning convection The only thing that looks somewhat questionable is the shear (which looks to be undirectional).

It looks like tomorrow could be one of the best severe weather setups the Metro Detroit area has seen in a long time. *Steep mid-level lapse rates *Negative-tilt trough *Strong tropical moisture advection (via. Cristobal remnants) *Perfect timing (peak heating) *Good chance of clear morning skies / no morning convection The only thing that looks somewhat questionable is the shear (which looks to be undirectional).

Being in the deep south, now you get it.

You're entitled to rant. I stand by what I said. 1. I find it very hard to feel sorry for folks who still enthusiastically support an administration who's acting their best interest. Things 2. These protesters interjected race into this when they were proudly waving a symbolism of racism/slavery (with not a single POC around, I might add). 3. They're acting selfishly by punishing everyone else with the defiance of the governor's order for their poor decisions (whether in terms of voting or choices for making a living). EDIT: Also, you complain about socialism, which is ironic because assuming the kindest of reasons, these people are upset because they're unable to support themselves. Yet, a stronger social safety net, such as the one across the border in Canada, would have given these folks the support they need to weather this crisis. Thus, we wouldn't have to be choosing between hundreds of thousands people dying from the plague or people suffering from an economic collapse. Yet, they voted otherwise and now here we are...

While we're still on the subject of the stimulus checks, yesterday the IRS launched a website where you can provide your direct deposit information and track its status: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/politics/get-my-payment-stimulus-checks-irs/index.html https://www.irs.gov/coronavirus/get-my-payment

When I see individuals like these protesters blocking ambulances and flying confederate flags (knowing darn well the implication behind it), their anger clearly goes well beyond "Dey terk er jerbs!!!" Let's call out the huge elephant in the room. The stats show this virus is disproportionately hitting people of a certain ethnicity the hardest, in a city where that ethnicity makes up over 80% of the population. To them, this group of people and the city they live in are perfectly expendable for their own selfish needs of keeping open a "multi-generation" business that only existed since 2002, or gardening / motorboat racing in snow and 31*F weather, as I'm certain the typical protester at this spectacle didn't have pleasant opinions about the city in question nor the ethnic group in question in thr first place. As Governor Whitmer succinctly stated, while they're out protesting the stay-at-home order, they may well have just made the pandemic worse and it will now have to be extended even longer (something she was trying to prevent). I have a disabled, elderly mother in Detroit (I.E. one who would be a prime candidate for contracting COVID-19) who is frightened to death given she's already had multiple health scares. Obviously, she wants this to pass ASAP. So this does hit close to home even for me and forgive me if I don't all that sorry for the protesters who are doing everything to prolong it. As far as the economic impact, most of us are taking a hit to one extent of another (so what they're experiencing isn't all that special). I've been forced to take a 10% paycut and 2 week furlough myself. It sucks, but I'm not out here defying orders intended to minimize the spread of this virus like some petulant child because I'm upset about it. And the reality is you live in a heavily blue collar state tied to an extremely cyclical industry. Thus, you're always going to be hit harder than others when economic downturns happen (it is what it is). If you don't like it, find another state to live in or another industry/field to work in. Furthermore, as far as someone bringing up what Canada is doing, I couldn't help but see all of the Trump / Pence posters in the photos. I personally voted for the candidate(s) who would have done a lot more to help them through this tough time economically than a measely one-time $1,200 check (and even push for programs similar to the ones in Canada). Yet, they're still proudly supporting a "leader" and his administration who just orchestrated the largest transfer of wealth in history to the professional / ownership class. So how much can you really do to help folks who insist on voting against their best interests? Ok, ranting done.

What I will say is that defense, as usual, seems to be the only real safe haven. For one, the government mandates that contractors maintain a certain staff level for national security purposes. But also, that industry's main customer is one that can print/borrow money and operate with a deficit infinitely. Aerospace is mixed. The military side is still humming along, but the commercial side (where the customers are Delta, Boeing, etc.) is getting decimated.

Auto Sales have already cratered to near Great Recession lows, and will no doubt be even lower by the end of April. Also, the ways things are going at Ford, they'll be in bankruptcy court by the Summer. They have a furniture CEO running the company who's completely out of his element, their stocks are now rated junk and they're begging for things such as another Cash for Clunkers. Ford's U.S. Sales Chief Wants a New "Cash for Clunkers" Initiative: Here's Why It Won't Help Ford’s Debt Was Cut to Junk. This Is Why the Stock Is Rising. GM and Chrysler are somewhat better because they got rid of much of their debt in bankruptcy and GM specifically has exited the world to fluff up its balance sheets. But with auto sales in both the US and China (GM's primary markets) being an unmitigated disaster, and the losses they were still recovering from after the plant shutdowns last fall, they're not far behind from being in Ford's position. And then there's the city of Detroit. They already have a $300 million dollar budget hole to backfill, and that's going to mean more cuts to the city's already bare bones services.

It's just too bad that they're going to take away hospital beds from thoughtful people when they inevitably catch the virus.

The SPC is sticking with a moderate outlook in the latest update.

Also yes.

To my knowledge, yes. EDIT: Come to think of it, a PDS watch might have been issued on 3/28 in IL/IA/MO.

I'm just going to leave this here for purposes. It was being discussed over at SouthernWX for what owuld also be an historic severe weather outbreak for the Southeast US.

Well, there was the *HUGE* exception of the March 2008 blizzard. Still bitter about that one.

Given the reports coming in now out of Detroit proper and Roseville are 5.8" and 6.8" respectively, I'm going to call BS on that 3" report from Grosse Pointe.

It looks like your favorite spotter out of Grosse Pointe has come in with his lowball report of 3".

Impressive to see that you guys are going to get another warning criteria snowfall in the "warm sector" of a system, given it also happened not too long ago and how unusual it is.

Even down there, where the average yearly snowfall is a whopping 2", there's plenty of banter about the lack of winter weather from fellow enthusiasts. Yet, what's funny about it though is that they would kill to experience the "less than impressive" Winter you guys are having this season (that was, in small part, why SnowlessinCarollton was excited to come up to your neck of the woods). I'm just amused by the reactions about this current storm system along with responses from folks like beavis1729 about winter as a whole followed by michsnowfreak coming in to bring folks in from off the ledge (and yes, he's not wrong). I don't have to be reminded that I did a ton of whining about the lack of Big Dog storms when I was still there, but that aside, even I will acknowledge you all have had an overall impressive stretch of winters in the last 15 years. So the feelings of despair from some clashing with michsnowfreak's relentless positivity in somewhat bad winters that could be much worse intrigues me, and I'd hate to see what the discourse is like if one of those sub-20" winters happened.

A part of me is interested in seeing you all experience a truly awful winter (talking 1930s or 1990s awful). Detroit and much of the Midwest hasn't had one since weather forums and social media became a thing. So I can just imagine the meltdowns would be on a whole 'nother level of cringeworthy, especially from normally positive michsnowfreak.