Powerball

Cell's trying to blow up now over Irving.

Heat advisory until 7pm for Dallas and Tarrant Counties. Currently 94*F at DFW. Forecast is for a high of 99*F.

Interestingly enough, hi-res models are trying to blow up some convection this afternoon, although they're centering on an area just to the SW of the Metroplex. But even then, the cloud debris from them could keep the afternoon temps in check. We'll see what happens...

Didn't even get below 80*F last night, with a low of 81*F. And now the temps are off to the races as the sun rises. The cloud debris seems to have largely diminished again too.

Officially, today's high at DFW was 99*F.

The cloud debris wasn't nearly as extensive as expected. Most of the day has been Sunny with blue skies (finally). Currently 98*F at DFW.

Oh dear god, make it stop.. 000 FXUS64 KFWD 131106 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 606 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Monday/ Another decaying complex of storms has continued to progress southeastward toward North Texas. While the vigor of this complex is much less than that of last night, it has overachieved as a large cold pool has allowed it to progress quickly to the southeast. While it does appear that most of the complex will dissipate completely prior to its arrival into North Texas, there`s enough of a risk that 20-30 PoP have been advertised near and north of the US HWY 380 corridor. For some areas, gusty winds are possible as outflow continues to scoot east and southeastward. Otherwise, some patchy fog has developed within the lower Trinity River Valley across portions of Henderson, Anderson, Navarro and Freestone counties. Visibility may fall down to near 2 miles in spots. Fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise. In the near term...I increased sky coverage for a majority of the area as the cirrus canopy from the decaying complex overspreads the area. I feel confident that this cloud cover will thin enough such that highs in the low to mid 90s are still achievable. If not---then MaxT grids will need to be nudged downward. This afternoon, it appears that the risk for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop has increased from originally thought. Radar imagery from western Oklahoma shows a well defined mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). Short term high-resolution model guidance has resolved this feature well and advertises an increase in showers/storms generally west of I-35. I`ve cautiously nudged PoPs upward for late this afternoon and into the evening hours given the poor performance of guidance over the past several days. However, with the MCV quite apparent, I do have confidence that showers/storms will develop somewhere across the region. Given the abundance of moisture and thus instability, a small cluster may evolve and dive southward out of Oklahoma---steered along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. The severe weather risk doesn`t appear overly high given the paltry deep layer shear values; however, daytime heating may promote steep low-level lapse rates and thus a risk for strong to near-severe caliber wind gusts.

^^^Right on the money.

Correction: The line decayed as soon as it reached the Dallas County border. Not even going to get the benefit of a heavy/torrential downpour from this.

Yeah, so much for that 10% chance of rain, lol. I suspect the 90*F+ high today ain't going to happen either.

Well I guess the MCS didn't weaken as fast as I thought, lol. Waking up to a decent line of non-severe t'storms

Clouds yet again cleared out around noon and today's high at DFW was 94*F

Not anymore. The eastern part of the complex has shown signs of weakening, and the stronger cells on the SW end of the complex have latched on to the N-S theta-e gradient through eastern KS and OK.

Archive radar indicates the stronger cells split to the north and south of the city.

Well that didn't take long. Hi-Res models have a MCS diving southward through DFW early tomorrow morning. Naturally, there can only be one outcome (decaying stratiform rain then socked in cloud debris for Saturday).

BTW, ^^^this was the first day since 5/27 (13 days) with an observed high that was actually above average (currentlyb91*F).

DFW snuck up to a very late day high of 93*F after the clouds finally broke out between 4pm and 5pm.

After crawling to 89*F over BKN sky cover, the stratus deck has *THICKENED* and the temp has fallen back down to 86*F.

I'm tempted to make a complaint thread. My posts about Dallas' weather alone would fill it up, lol.

What's also crazy about that is that the typically cooler DET has hit 90*F+ at least twice this year (including yesterday)

Per usual for this season, Dallas still can't even do strong/severe t'storms right...

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0280 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1128 PM EDT Sat Jun 05 2021 Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Far Southern Oklahoma Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 060328Z - 060700Z Summary...Isolated flash flooding may continue across portions of North Texas and far southern Oklahoma through the early overnight hours with rainfall rates as high as 2-3"/hr. Discussion...Deep convection is expanding across portions of northeastern Texas late this evening, amid a highly favorable mesoscale environment for heavy rainfall (as well as relatively slow storm motions). SPC mesoscale analysis indicates MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, PWATS of 1.7-1.8 inches (above the 90th percentile for FWD), and effective bulk shear of near 20 kts. In addition, the placement of a synoptic scale upper-level low over central TX is providing a fair amount of divergence/diffluence aloft. These factors, along with a weak low-level jet (20 kts) and modest 925-850 mb moisture transport, should continue to foster upscale growth of convection over the next several hours. The just in 00z HREF suite also suggests that convection will be able to continue to proliferate through 06z. The probability matched mean (PMM) QPF suggests an additional 2-3" is possible over a fairly broad area over northeastern Dallas and points northeastward (toward far southern Oklahoma). The current convective trends bear this out, as radar and satellite imagery depict continued storm mergers and outflow enhanced convergence over an analyzed region of deep moisture convergence. 00z HREF 40-km neighborhood probabilities suggest a 30% chance of 3-inch exceedance over the next several hours. This 3-inch exceedance has already been realized just north of Dallas (near Allen, TX), according to dual-pol radar estimates via KFWS (as well as MRMS 3-hr QPF through 03z) which depicts an area where 5+ inches of rain has already fallen. Hydrologically, much of the surrounding area is already relatively saturated, as NASA SPoRT-LIS soil moisture percentiles average above the 70th percentile. Given these latest convective trends, the 00z CAM output, and antecedent soil conditions, flash flooding will continue to be possible through 07z. Of particular concern is the prospect of convection backward-propagating farther into the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area, given the relatively slow storm motions and high rainfall rates. Churchill ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34419564 33729483 33089509 32539528 32259549 32669634 32599722 33119720 33639707 33909665 34369628

Flash Flood Warning TXC113-060730- /O.NEW.KFWD.FF.W.0013.210606T0429Z-210606T0730Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1129 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northern Dallas County in north central Texas... * Until 230 AM CDT. * At 1129 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated slow moving thunderstorms producing very heavy rain across Northern Dallas County including White Rock Lake. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges. IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Dallas, Garland, Irving, Coppell, Farmers Branch, University Park, Sachse, Addison and Buckingham. Interstate 635, the Dallas North Tollway, Interstate 35E, and Highway 75 may all experience urban flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. && LAT...LON 3298 9661 3280 9661 3280 9673 3285 9676 3286 9696 3299 9694 FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED $$ Dunn

Too early indeed.

The 180hr+ GFS has been teasing that elusive 591 to 594dm ridge since the end of April. It did verify to an extent (and for a considerably shorter length than typical upper level ridges) last time for the Great Lakes and SE, but not so much for the Central US.