Powerball

CAMs are showing mixed signals at best for DFW. Some of them are, in fact, duds. So highly conditional setup here, but yeah, could be an active evening up in Central/Southern OK for sure. EDIT: It's crazy that we're seeing a lot more severe weather threats/events this fall than we saw during the entirety of our actual severe weather season.

It seems October 2021 will tie (with 1988) for the 4th warmest on record for Detroit.

Looks like Detroit might be on track for a top 5 warmest October on record, and possibly the warmest October it's seen in nearly 100 years. Current departure is 60.1*F, and it would need to stay above 59.5*F to make the top 5. Even down here, we're looking at a top 10 warmest October on record.

Apparently, we had a rogue t'storm come through a little while ago (I was asleep).It doesn't seem to have been severe though.

I think you forgot to add your sarcasm tag there...

The real story there is that 6 of the top 10 warmest years have all been in the last 11 years, and all but 1 of the top 10 warmest years have been in the last 30 years.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1082 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1231 PM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Areas affected...southwest into west-central Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 131631Z - 132231Z Summary...Onset of a long-duration flash flood threat is underway across the discussion area. Discussion...Latest observations and objective analyses indicate a nearly surface boundary extending from near 6R6 (near the Big Bend region of Texas) east-northeastward to near the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro area. Along and southeast of the front, abundantly moist and unstable air was supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms near the front that were increasing in coverage and intensity this morning. Flow aloft was southwesterly - generally parallel to the front - which was already allowing for some training especially near the convective band about 70 WSW of SJT. Areas of 1"/hr rates were already noted, which is not particularly surprising given 1.5-1.9 inch PW values along and ahead of the front. Over the next 6 hours (and potentially beyond), models depict a gradual expansion of convective coverage primarily due to weak confluence/convergence along and ahead of the front. The approach of moisture/lift associated with Tropical Cyclone Pam along the western coast of Mexico will also contribute to expanded convective coverage over time as well. FFG thresholds are generally in the 2-3"/hr range across most of the discussion area (slightly lower near the Austin/San Antonio corridor), suggesting that the greatest flash flood threat will be tied to areas that can experience training and/or persistence of heavy rainfall in the near term. Cook ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32689805 32479765 31719781 30789875 29679955 29130038 29300089 29560173 29570234 29690269 30450231 31190151 32489919

Crazy that in the same season, we've had the high schools in 2 different places named Coweta destroyed by a strong nighttime tornadoes.

Also per KDFW news, there were over 50K power outages across DFW at the peak, but things seem to be getting restored quickly.

DFW measured a 70 MPH wind gust per the SPC, with numerous 60-70 MPH gusts around the greater Metroplex area. EDIT: DAL also reported a 56 MPH wind gust per KDFW news.

Still got power here.

Surprised they issued a Tornado Watch as quickly as they did and for such a large area in North Texas It's in effect until 2am.

True, but I suspect it explains why the CINH hasn't eroded as quickly as the CAMs progged.

It seems the problem is that dewpoints are now starting to mix out. They've fallen into the mid 60s here.

FWD's sounding isn't much better...

For what little it's worth though, I think today's event is the first time this entire season that every short-term CAM has agreed on a single outcome, and they all look good for DFW.

Given how lackluster this season has been, my expectations have been shot.

Sod's law...

The latest 30-year averages did suggest that somewhat. April and May were slightly cooler while September and October were slightly warmer.

Thank god for the Sunbelt...

FWIW, I've heard someone mentioned the fall pattern so far is looking similar to 2010. Of course, if that's the case, I think a lot of folks would be happy with a repeat of the winter that came after it.

I didn't know you moved. What brought you over to the Detroit area? EDIT: Never mind. I see your response above

Incoming for the Detroit area... Severe Thunderstorm Warning MIC093-125-155-131815- /O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0121.210913T1719Z-210913T1815Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 119 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Oakland County in southeastern Michigan... Southern Shiawassee County in southeastern Michigan... Livingston County in southeastern Michigan... * Until 215 PM EDT. * At 119 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fowlerville, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * This severe thunderstorm will be near... Fowlerville around 125 PM EDT. Howell, Cohoctah and Oak Grove around 135 PM EDT. Hartland and Brighton around 150 PM EDT. Milford and South Lyon around 200 PM EDT. Novi around 215 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Plainfield, Island Lake State Recreation Area, Commerce, New Hudson, Rose Center, Walled Lake, Conway Township, Parkers Corners, Lakeland and White Lake. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 4283 8436 4280 8392 4278 8392 4278 8375 4273 8345 4244 8343 4243 8414 4277 8416 4277 8435 TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 281DEG 37KT 4268 8416 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ KDK