Powerball

Actually getting a good peak of the sun now.

SPC has upgraded much of the DFW Metroplex to a Slight Risk, with a 5% chance of a tornado... SPC AC 161951 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are once again expected across portions of the central and southern Plains late this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts are the most likely risks. Tornado probabilities have been increased to 5%/Slight Risk in parts of north-central Texas, including the DFW metro area. Earlier this afternoon, a few weak/brief circulations were noted on KFWS radar along with reported brief touchdowns with the most organized storm now in Ellis County. Current radar imagery continues to suggest some potential for this activity to continue for a few hours. TDFW and TDAL VWP data continue to show semi-enlarged low-level hodographs. A couple storms, should they organize, west/south of the metro area may see similar potential for a brief/weak tornado given some heating ahead of that activity. Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged.

Flood Advisory National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 245 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 TXC085-162245- /O.NEW.KFWD.FA.Y.0019.210516T1945Z-210516T2245Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Collin TX- 245 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas for... Southwestern Collin County in north central Texas... * Until 545 PM CDT. * At 245 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. Areas that are low lying or poor drainage areas will experience minor flooding in the advisory area. Some locations that will experience flooding include... Plano, Garland, McKinney, Carrollton, Frisco, Richardson, Allen, Wylie, Sachse, Murphy, Fairview, Princeton, Lucas, Parker, Lowry Crossing, St. Paul and New Hope. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots. && LAT...LON 3304 9684 3315 9684 3325 9665 3318 9645 3297 9655 3299 9684 3300 9684 3301 9684 3302 9684 3303 9684 $$ TR.92

Pretty impressive swath of 3"+ rain across NW Dallas County. I'm interested to see what the rainfaill total will be out of Love Field (maybe upwards of 7"?). It seems to be the bullseye.

They were playing up until now, but now play has been suspended. Good news is that they're in the final round and the Tornado Warning has been cancelled.

BTW, the Byron Nelson (PGA Tournament) is currently taking place in McKinney, TX. Not sure if there's a delay though.

Oh my... Tornado Warning TXC113-161945- /O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0019.210516T1908Z-210516T1945Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 208 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Dallas County in north central Texas... * Until 245 PM CDT. * At 208 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near University Park, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Garland around 225 PM CDT. Richardson around 230 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Buckingham. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3298 9664 3285 9677 3289 9682 3299 9680 3299 9675 TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 208DEG 25KT 3289 9677 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ 92

Radar indicates a band of 5-7" of rain in west and northwest Dallas.

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1121 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun May 16 2021 - 12Z Mon May 17 2021 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST... 1600 UTC update Only some minor changes made to the previous Excessive Rainfall Outlook. The slight risk over northeast Kansas was extended farther to the southwest to cover lower ffg values from overnight heavy rains. The slight risk over south central Oklahoma was extended into southeast Oklahoma after viewing new 1200 UTC hi res guidance. The marginal and slight risk areas over South Texas were also extended slightly farther south for current radar trends. See WPC's mesoscale precipitation discussions #0179 valid until 1740 UTC and #0180 valid until 1914 UTC for addition information across northeast Kansas and South Texas. Oravec 0900 UTC discussion ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Ongoing convection across portions of Kansas is forecast to continue to shift east during the morning hours, with weakening expected as it moves into western Missouri during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Redevelopment is expected however by late afternoon and continuing into the evening with the return of daytime heating and persistent southerly flow into a slow-moving boundary extending across Kansas and northern Missouri. Recent runs of the RAP and NAM show PWs approaching 1.5 inches by the afternoon along the leading edge of southwesterly low level inflow into the boundary across northern Missouri. This along with slow-moving, mid-level energy is expected to support the development of heavy rains. Slow-cell movement along with the potential for training will raise the potential for heavy accumulations and the threat for localized runoff concerns. The 00Z HREF neighborhood probabilities (40km) for accumulations of 2-inches or more are well-above 50 percent within the Slight Risk area, with some high probabilities for 3-inches or more across portions of central Missouri. ...Southern Oklahoma to Central Texas... Waning convection moving east of the Texas Panhandle this morning is expected to redevelop farther east as a weak mid-level shortwave interacts with an plume of deeper moisture (PWs 1.5-2 inches) spreading north along an axis of 20-40 kt winds. With the return of daytime heating, heavy rains are expected to return, with the 00Z HREF indicating high neighborhood probabilities for accumulations of 2-inches or more during the afternoon hours. This convection is expected to propagate east of the Slight Risk area by the evening hours; however, some models show upstream convection developing over the High Plains propagating southeast back into the region overnight. ...Middle and Upper Texas Coast... Mid-level energy interacting with persistent onshore flow and PWs of 1.75-2+ inches is expected to support the development of slow-moving heavy rains during the day. While confidence in the details is limited, the hi-res guidance shows a good signal for locally heavy amounts along the Middle Texas coast developing later this morning, with the HREF showing high probabilities for local accumulations of 3-inches or more. Convection is expected to progress more steadily to the east during the day, however some models show heavy accumulations making it farther east along the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston metro, during the afternoon. ...Central Rockies into the High Plains... Convection is expected to develop once again along the Colorado and New Mexico high terrain during the late afternoon/evening hours. Locally heavy amounts developing may result in short-term runoff problems over the eastern Colorado high terrain, especially across burn scar areas, before propagating east into the High Plains. Pereira Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0181 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1216 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 Areas affected...East-Central Oklahoma through North Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 161615Z - 162115Z Summary...Potential for flash-flooding this afternoon along a moisture/instability axis extending from North Texas into east-central Oklahoma. Discussion...A mid-level impulse is lifting northeast through central OK with an axis of moisture/instability extending north from south TX ahead of this wave. Scattered thunderstorms have developed in this axis over North Texas with recent max one hour rainfall estimates from KFWS of 1.5 to locally 2" over the I-35 corridor including the Dallas metro. PWs of 1.6" to 1.7" will continue to be reinforced by 25kt southerly 850mb flow with SBCAPE of 500 to 1000 J/Kg. 1hr FFG is lower through the Dallas metro/along I-35E (between 2.0" and 2.5"/hr) where the greater moisture is present. Farther north in east-central OK are PWs around 1.5" and 1hr FFG is generally just above 2.5"/hr. However, the mid-level circulation should continue to allow some longer residence time for moderate to heavy rain, making for a similar isolated flash flood in parts of central OK to North TX this afternoon. Jackson ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36149685 35659572 32829579 31379606 30989647 31009701 31079741 31539761 32049748 32489727 33239725 33739720 34329769 34509844 35479778

Tornado Warning TXC139-251-161915- /O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0018.210516T1837Z-210516T1915Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 137 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Johnson County in north central Texas... West central Ellis County in north central Texas... * Until 215 PM CDT. * At 136 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Grandview, or 12 miles southeast of Alvarado, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Maypearl around 155 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3221 9705 3222 9706 3226 9709 3225 9716 3235 9714 3237 9700 3230 9691 TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 215DEG 15KT 3225 9709 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ 92

Welp, this might not have aged well...

Tornado Warning TXC217-161845- /O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0017.210516T1817Z-210516T1845Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 117 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Hill County in central Texas... * Until 145 PM CDT. * At 116 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Itasca, or 11 miles north of Hillsboro, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Hill County. This includes Interstate 35W between mile markers 6 and 13. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3212 9715 3219 9722 3225 9715 3226 9710 3226 9709 3217 9702 TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 226DEG 12KT 3217 9715 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ 92

Flood Advisory National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1214 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 TXC113-161915- /O.NEW.KFWD.FA.Y.0018.210516T1714Z-210516T1915Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Dallas TX- 1214 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas for... Western Dallas County in north central Texas... * Until 215 PM CDT. * At 1214 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. Areas that are low lying or poor drainage areas will experience minor flooding in the advisory area. Up to 2 inches of rain has already fallen in parts of western Dallas county. Some locations that will experience flooding include... Dallas, Garland, Irving, Grand Prairie, Carrollton, Richardson, Desoto, Cedar Hill, Duncanville, Lancaster, Farmers Branch, University Park, Addison, Glenn Heights, Highland Park, Cockrell Hill, Ovilla, Cedar Hill State Park and Buckingham. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent. && LAT...LON 3272 9704 3297 9691 3297 9663 3254 9683 3254 9704 $$ TR.92

A band of 2-4" of rain has already fallen over the west / northwest part of Dallas (between I-20 and I-635):

Technically, DFW still has a deficit for the year. So I don't think the flood problems will get too bad as long as much of the rain doesn't fall at once.

A mess... 000 FXUS64 KFWD 131906 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 206 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021 ...New Long Term... Confidence is increasing regarding the potential for a prolonged active weather period consisting of widespread significant rainfall/flooding and some strong/severe thunderstorms. Enjoy these couple days of sun and dry weather because it appears those days will be scarce during the extended forecast period. By Saturday, a relatively zonal flow regime should be in place across most of the US with warm/moist southerly flow present across the Southern Plains. Warm advection may begin contributing to isolated/scattered convective development by Saturday afternoon across the western portion of the CWA where a weak cap is expected to erode via diabatic heating. With modest shear and the lack of a boundary to focus convective development, it`s unlikely that these storms would be able to become organized or reach strong/severe limits. The greater potential for deep convection will reside far west of the forecast area in West Texas along an active dryline. Our main forecast problem for the weekend will be determining whether this convection could organize into one or more MCSs and move into the forecast area later Saturday night or Sunday morning. Have generally indicated this type of solution with the current PoP configuration, and it appears that the 30-40 kts of low-level flow and resultant moisture flux could maintain convective clusters as they advance eastward, despite generally decreasing MUCAPE and modest large- scale ascent. Sunday`s forecast will largely hinge on these events (or lack thereof), and a morning MCS may result in an inactive remainder of the day if sufficient convective overturning occurs. Alternatively, no overnight/morning convection would open the door for some dryline activity to make it into our CWA later in the day. It`s also possible activity north of us along a stalled frontal zone in Oklahoma could make a southward push with an expanding cold pool or effective frontal zone.

OK and KS have sucked for severe weather as of late too.

More below average temps and wet weather. Weee!!! /s

Mesoscale Discussion 0590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 Areas affected...Parts of central through northeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111513Z - 111615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue to initiate and become increasingly widespread north through northeast of the Edwards Plateau and adjacent Big Country through the Interstate 30/20 corridors by Noon to 2 PM CDT. This may include at least some risk for severe hail early, with potential to organize later this afternoon, if not before. It is not yet certain a watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Latest model output indicates a substantial strengthening of large-scale ascent north/northeast of the Edwards Plateau, across parts of the Texas Big Country through the Interstates 30/20 corridors of north central and northeast Texas by 17-19Z. This is forecast to occur in response to strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath increasingly divergent high-level flow, as a west-southwesterly subtropical jet streak continues to nose across the northern Mexican Plateau through the Texas Gulf coast vicinity. This lift will largely be focused above at least shallow cool/stable surface-based air to the north of stalled/slow moving frontal zone now extending across the upper Texas coastal plain through parts of Deep South Texas and the lower Rio Grande Valley. However, seasonably moist air above the frontal inversion, and beneath steep lapse rates associated with elevated mixed-layer air, is contributing to moderate to large CAPE, supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development. While high-level flow is strong, lower/mid tropospheric flow is somewhat modest to weak. Coupled with the likelihood for increasingly widespread convection through midday and early afternoon, hail potential in the longer term remains unclear. However, given the initial thermodynamic profiles, there may be a window of opportunity for large hail in the initially more discrete early storm development. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/11/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32609949 32959809 33149610 32439453 31079569 30959757 30349983 30570081 31300040 32609949

Upper 50s / low 60s highs and winter-like gloom in mid-May? You can have it. I'm beyond ready for a death ridge.

Getting hail stones mixed in with the rain. Mostly pea to dime size though (nothing severe).

Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC439-102345- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0158.210510T2321Z-210510T2345Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 621 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Tarrant County in north central Texas... * Until 645 PM CDT. * At 620 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Haslet, or near Saginaw, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is possible. Additional storms within Tarrant County may also produce hail to the size of quarters. LAT...LON 3298 9703 3255 9704 3256 9755 3299 9754 TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 242DEG 42KT 3294 9735 HAIL...1.25IN WIND...<50MPH $$ 25

TXC121-497-102330- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0157.210510T2303Z-210510T2330Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 603 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Wise County in north central Texas... Southwestern Denton County in north central Texas... * Until 630 PM CDT. * At 602 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Boyd, or near Briar, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is possible. * This severe thunderstorm will be near... New Fairview around 625 PM CDT. Justin around 630 PM CDT. LAT...LON 3304 9725 3299 9740 3299 9763 3300 9764 3307 9769 3326 9753 3328 9738 TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 240DEG 28KT 3304 9757 HAIL...1.25IN WIND...<50MPH $$ 25