Powerball

Obviously we're not looking at another dust bowl, but given the current model projections, this map of drought conditions in the SW plains has to be a bit concerning from the standpoint of a positive feedback loop for temperatures.

That's almost as ridiculous as the lieutenant Gov. in Texas saying Grandma should sacrifice herself for young people.

DTW managed an intra-hour 90*F today, so the streak continues...

This morning's AFD mentions there will likely be a need for Heat Advisories this upcoming week. That said, for now, the humidity has been manageable which is keeping heat indices in check.

Indications suggest this time may be different. The long range pattern isn't looking too dissimilar from 1995 and 2012.

It's looking like there will be just enough flattening of the ridge next weekend to at least bring a temporary "cool down" (meaning sub-90*F+ temps) for the NE parts of the subforum. From what I recall, shortwaves like the one showing up on the models right now always end up breaking down the ridge more than projected in the mid/long range.

I've been back in town and will be here for at least the next week. You're welcome for the heat.

Based on the archive radar, Windsor probably saw even bigger hail. There was some good magenta color in that cell before it crossed the river.

NE Wayne County into Southern Macomb County seem like it got hit pretty good.

The outflow boundary from the line of storms is causing more storms to blow up over the east side of Detroit now. Not severe right now, but they're looking healthy.

The squall line's progression eastward looks to have slowed to a crawl. In the mean time, now there are some nice supercells popping up along the I-75 corridor as the cap weakens.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning MIC093-161-102030- /O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0024.200610T1921Z-200610T2030Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 321 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Livingston County in southeastern Michigan... Washtenaw County in southeastern Michigan... * Until 430 PM EDT. * At 320 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Perry to 6 miles southwest of Vandercook Lake, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Severe thunderstorms will be near... Fowlerville around 325 PM EDT. Cohoctah around 335 PM EDT. Chelsea around 400 PM EDT. Gregory around 405 PM EDT. Dexter around 410 PM EDT. Pinckney around 415 PM EDT. Hamburg around 420 PM EDT. Whitmore Lake around 425 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Pittsfield Township, Whittaker, Plainfield, Hudson Mills Metropark, Island Lake State Recreation Area, Bridgewater, Delhi Mills, Pleasant Lake, Barton Hills and Pinckney State Recreation Area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread wind damage across southern Lower Michigan. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4278 8369 4243 8366 4243 8355 4209 8354 4208 8413 4278 8416 TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 234DEG 35KT 4275 8419 4213 8449 HAIL...<.75IN WIND...70MPH

Looking at the satellite image, it kind of looks like some gravity waves in that area.

Watch out Detroit... Mesoscale Discussion 0900 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Areas affected...southeast lower Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274...276... Valid 101903Z - 102030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274, 276 continues. SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms have coalesced into a loosely organized squall line across portions of northeast Indiana and southeast Lower Michigan. A focused corridor for damaging wind gusts may develop as storms intensify from Kalamazoo, east-northeast toward Detroit. DISCUSSION...A line of quasi discrete supercells have begun merging into a more linear organization across portions of northeast Indiana and southern half of Lower Michigan over the last hour. Several reports of wind damage have been received as outflow has become more coherent and better organized. The diagonal NE/SW orientation of the convective line lies along a corridor of backed mid and upper-level flow observed from the 18z Detroit special sounding. The orientation of the upper-level flow will likely support continued downdraft development and outflow aggregations given seeding from anvil precipitation being advected over downstream convection across portions of far northeast Indiana into southeast Lower Michigan. The main threat with storms will be damaging winds given 1200-1400 J/kg of DCAPE and strong mid-level flow of 50 to 60 kt. Large hail will be possible given MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg supporting robust deep updrafts. However, the risk appears limited due to weaker lapse rates of 6 to 7 C/km and the predominately linear storm mode. The most favored corridor for severe wind will be with the stronger cells merging into southern Michigan toward Detroit. A few significant wind gusts will be possible with any stronger bowing structures that can develop. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 42648519 43208407 43788343 43908295 43668264 42728254 42418300 41768352 41818523 42048528 42548522 42648519

Mesoscale Discussion 0899 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Areas affected...western and central Ohio into northern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 101758Z - 101930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch downstream of WW275 will likely be issued within the next hour. Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, and a tornado or two will be likely through this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms over central Indiana has produced several reports of damaging winds over the last few hours. These storms are ongoing in a very moist environment (surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F) ahead of a pressure trough/wind shift emanating from a 983 mb cyclone over southern Ontario. 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and 35-45 kt of effective shear as sampled by SPC mesoanalysis will support robust organized updrafts in the form of small bowing segments and supercells. Damaging winds will primarily be the main threat with the increase in storm coverage and interactions favoring strong downdrafts. However, the magnitude of instability/buoyancy will support some risk for isolated large hail with the strongest updrafts. Hodographs are expected to be relatively long but low-level flow is expected veer with time supporting the threat for one or two tornadoes given 0-1 km shear of 15-20 kt. A new Severe thunderstorm Watch will be needed within the next hour. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 38588362 38398438 38378477 38618517 39278531 40988426 41588381 41648364 41568290 41628214 41738178 41818152 41758140 39808209 39468230 38828298 38588362

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for most of Eastern Lower MI until 8pm

Mesoscale Discussion 0897 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Areas affected...parts of central and northern Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 101617Z - 101715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A severe-wind bowing segment near Grand Rapids is projected to move into northern Lower MI and beyond severe thunderstorm watch 274 by 130pm EDT. A new severe thunderstorm watch will be needed from near Saginaw Bay northward encompassing much of northern Lower MI. A severe thunderstorm watch will also be needed for southeast Lower MI and may be issued in coordination with the Alpena and Detroit NWS Forecast Offices. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KGRR shows a severe bowing segment moving northeast at 60 mph. The Holland, MI ASOS (KBIV) observed a 63 kt gust at 1145am EDT with passage of this bow. The bowing segment and a cluster farther east near Lansing are projected to move east/north of the severe thunderstorm watch 274 by 130pm EDT. The airmass downstream of these storms over central and northern Lower MI has destabilized with surface temperatures in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s deg F. RAP forecast soundings show 2000-2500 J/kg with 45 kt effective shear. The near-storm environment will continue to favor severe clusters capable of damaging gusts (55-75 mph), which will result in swaths of scattered to widespread wind damage. ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... LAT...LON 42818406 44028464 44198604 45348511 45688431 45678320 44888253 42818406

IWX update... 000 FXUS63 KIWX 101534 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1134 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Continued strong confidence in multiple severe weather events, especially eastern half of CWA this afternoon. Area of concern developing on leading edge of dryline advancing eastward into southwest Indiana/KEVV vicinity. Hi-res satellite data showing rapid transition to convective streets and sheared towering cumulus field. As this embedded mesoscale vorticity lifts north- northeast. Effective shear, with speed shear largely attributing, to 50-55 knots over northern Indiana coincident with moderate to strong unstable airmass. Pockets of heating with surface temperatures into middle 80s and dewpoints in middle 70s with 3000-3500 J/kg SBCAPE early this afternoon will continue to provide upscale growth of linear segments, potential LEWP with an embedded tornado, though by far the greatest risk is for widespread damaging wind gusts, significant tree and possible structural damage in isolated areas.

GRR update... 000 FXUS63 KGRR 101511 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1111 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 The thunderstorms are moving across the I-94 area, west of Jackson as I write this. The storms will continue to develop into a solid line of storms that will reach the eastern sections by mid afternoon. Strong winds are the greatest threat with these storms. There is strong low level moisture transport, focused on the I-69 area early this afternoon. the low level jet axis by mid afternoon will be just east of US-131 and there will be speed convergence as the core of the low level jet at 4 pm will be south of our CWA. Add to that a strong upper jet crossing the area with unusually strong upper level wave, it`s clear there is a significant severe storm threat today.

DTX update... 000 FXUS63 KDTX 101559 CCA AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion...corrected author National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1144 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 .UPDATE... Southwest flow already gusting up to 25-30 kts accompanied by CWA- wide dewpoints firmly in the 72-74 range by 15z this morning. 12z DTX sounding indicated 1200 j/kg MLCAPE with a pronounced H7 cap beneath the resident shortwave ridge axis. Mean lapse rates from the cap to the EL, which resides around 36kft, averaging a pedestrian but still adequate 6C/KM or slightly better. Gravity waves within the disspating morning stratocu field over eastern areas indicative of the last vestigates of the nocturnal inversion while an increasingly agitated cu field has begun taking shape to the south and southwest. Convection remains unlikely in the very near term as capping will persist until the coincident arrival of cooler temperatures associated with increasing mid-level height falls and greater deep layer moisture over over northern Indiana around 17z, at which time data from a 17z special release will be incoming. Momentum fields will ramp up considerably in the 18-00z time frame as the shortwave over northeast Missouri acquires a shaprly negative tilt and lifts toward Lower MI. Superposition of strong dynamic forcing (especially south), the strengthening deep layer wind field, and MLCAPE on the order of 2000-2500 j/kg will anchor a widespread severe thunderstorm threat with evolution toward a high end threat with time and especially with eastward extent. Convective mode will be largely modulated by SSW bulk shear increasing from 35kts early this afternoon to 50kts or greater over the eastern half of the CWA during the peak of the event. SSW shear certainly supportive of a few supercells especially over central/eastern zones (i.e. away from the impinging cold front). Otherwise, convection is expected to organize into linear/bowing structures supported by strong/deep rear inflow. Regardless of convective mode, ample dry air noted on the morning sounding and vigorous updraft intensity will support strong/significant downbursts. Any supercells will also pose a marginal hail threat, any greater potential likely limited by the overall warm thermal profile. Strongly veered SSW wind proifle suggests extremely limited availability of streamwise vorticity to existing supercells as confirmed by paltry 0-0.5 SRH of 50-100 m2/s2. In any case, the greatest tornado threat will most likely occur with localized bottom-up type development (i.e. apex of bows, etc) rather than with supercells.

Mesoscale Discussion 0896 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Areas affected...southern through northeast IN...west-central and northwest OH...southern Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 101522Z - 101645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely initiate along the surface trough over southwest and west-central IN prior to 12pm EDT. Storms will develop/intensify as they move northeast during the early afternoon as they organize into clusters/bands of storms. Damaging gusts primarily in the 55-75 mph range are expected. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows towering cumulus from near Evansville north to Greencastle, IN along the wind shift boundary. Surface observations over IN have warmed into the mid 80s with dewpoints generally in the 73-74 deg F range (per reliable ASOS compared to AWOS showing artificially too high dewpoints 77-79 deg F). These surface conditions input into the 8am EDT Wilmington, OH observed sounding, are yielding around 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. KIND VAD shows around 50-55 kt in the 2-3 km AGL layer. Once storms develop and mature, water-loading and momentum transfer will favor damaging gusts with maximum wind speeds generally in the 55-75 mph range with the stronger downdrafts. The greatest coverage of severe gusts will likely focus in eastern IN/western OH where peak storm maturity, in the form of small bowing segments/cluster, is expected this afternoon. ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 38858725 40608648 42108519 42218432 41808384 41348384 38928550 38578601 38668679 38858725

Mesoscale Discussion 0895 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0844 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Areas affected...northern IN...southwest and western Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 101344Z - 101515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms will gradually intensify this morning and likely require a severe thunderstorm watch issuance by 11am-12pm EDT. Max thunderstorm gust potential will initially range 45-60 mph but strengthen into the 50-70 mph range towards midday as both the magnitude/coverage of damaging gusts increases. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a developing band of storms from east-central IL to the Chicago south side with another cluster of storms developing over northwest IN expected to move into southwest Lower MI during the next 1-2 hours. Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud streets across northern IN into southern Lower MI, indicative of a very moist boundary layer. Specifically regarding moisture, the 6am EDT Detroit, MI observed sounding showed a 16.3 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratio, a climatological maximum through June 15th during the period of record (since 1949). Pockets of strong heating per cloud breaks will contribute to a moderately unstable airmass by mid-late morning with little to any remaining convective inhibition as temperatures warm into the low-mid 80s. KIWX and KGRR show 30-40 kt in the 1-2 km AGL layer with 50 kt around 3km AGL at KGRR. As the mid-level migratory shortwave trough approaches the Great Lakes from MO today, additional storm development/strengthening is expected. As a result, damaging gusts will become more common as bands of storms intensify through the late morning and into the early afternoon. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out given the moist boundary layer and adequate speed shear in the lowest 1-2 km, but the general unidirectional southerly wind profile will tend to favor damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... LAT...LON 41798743 43518643 43958519 43588442 42868424 41178513 40788600 40858719 41798743

As mentioned in the other thread, this is definitely one of the best setups the Metro Detroit area has seen in a long time *Steep mid-level lapse rates *Negative-tilt trough *Strong tropical moisture advection (via. Cristobal remnants) *Perfect timing (peak heating) *Good chance of clear morning skies / no morning convection The only thing that looks somewhat questionable is the shear (which looks to be undirectional).

It looks like tomorrow could be one of the best severe weather setups the Metro Detroit area has seen in a long time. *Steep mid-level lapse rates *Negative-tilt trough *Strong tropical moisture advection (via. Cristobal remnants) *Perfect timing (peak heating) *Good chance of clear morning skies / no morning convection The only thing that looks somewhat questionable is the shear (which looks to be undirectional).

Being in the deep south, now you get it.